Early state unemployment insurance data foreshadow the massive shock the coronavirus is having on state labor markets: The real surge will be seen in next week’s data [feedly]

Early state unemployment insurance data foreshadow the massive shock the coronavirus is having on state labor markets: The real surge will be seen in next week's data
https://www.epi.org/blog/early-state-unemployment-insurance-data-foreshadow-the-massive-shock-the-coronavirus-is-having-on-state-labor-markets-the-real-surge-will-be-seen-in-next-weeks-data/

The data released yesterday by the Department of Labor showed there was a breathtaking increase in the number of people filing for unemployment insurance (UI) during the week ending in March 21, 2020. Initial UI claims skyrocketed to 3.3 million last week—a nearly 1,500% increase over three weeks ago, when 211,000 initial claims were filed.

The comparable state-level data on UI claims is released one week later than the national data, so the most recent information available at the state-level is for two weeks ago—the week ending March 14th. While this does not capture the staggering spike in claims that we saw last week, the early effects of coronavirus are already apparent in many states. Figure A displays the percent change in unemployment insurance claims from the prior week.

UI is a critical tool for ensuring that those who are out of work or have seen their hours reduced are still able to make ends meet. The CARES Act, which Congress is currently debating, would adapt UI to meet the needs of the current crisis by expanding who is eligible (gig workers and the self-employed are usually excluded), giving an additional $600 in weekly benefits, and reducing burdensome waiting period, job search, and earnings requirements. Still, UI is just one of many policy levers that should be used to support workers throughout this crisis. Policymakers in every state should work to ensure that they are protecting public health while reducing economic harm to workers.

Figure A

Of all the states, Nevada saw the largest percent increase in initial claims filed compared to the prior week. Initial claims there nearly tripled, increasing by 175% or 4,047 additional claims. This is the largest numerical week-to-week increase in Nevada's history, and the second largest percentage increase. In Nevada, over 40% of jobs are in the leisure, hospitality, and retail sectors. As social distancing measures impact restaurants, bars, hotels, theaters, and other businesses across the country, states like Nevada will feel the effects more acutely.

Washington state, an early epicenter of the coronavirus, was also particularly hard-hit. In terms of sheer numbers, it saw the second-largest over-the-week increase in claims (7,624 additional claims) after California (14,240), and the second largest percentage increase (115%) behind Nevada. Washington's increase for the week of March 14, 2020 was also the second-largest increase in the state's history, both in level and percentage terms. Washington D.C. (158%), Nebraska (58.7%), Rhode Island (58.3%), and Massachusetts (58.1%) also saw claims increase by more than 50%. Data for all states is displayed in Table 1.

Table 1

The Department of Labor also provides an advance estimate of initial claims by state for one week ago, shown in Table 2. This advance estimate is available earlier than the official count of initial claims in each state, but it is not directly comparable. (The advance claims are based on the state where the employer is located, whereas the historical data of official claims is based on the resident state of the employee.) Still, these advance estimates indicate that when the official data are released next week, they're going to show historical levels of UI claims for nearly every state.

Table 2

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