Dean Baker The Surge in Imports and the Drop in GDP
Dean takes a contrary view, that the surge in imports does not make the GDP report a bad one. Of course, it depends on how one assesses all the causes of the surge, including the Ukraine war, and the not yet ended pandemic. The Surge in Imports and the Drop in GDP: Offloading the Ships Lined Up Offshore Many people were struck by the 1.4 percent drop in GDP in the first quarter, with some reports suggesting this was the beginning of a recession. This is not the real story of the first quarter GDP, instead it looks like growth is continuing at a healthy rate. To understand this point, it is important to recognize how imports are counted in GDP, since the increase in imports subtracted 2.53 percentage points from GDP growth in the quarter.[1] Imagine that the sum of consumption spending, investment, and government spending increased at 2.7 percent annual rate in the quarter (which they did). Now suppose that we offloaded $60 billion of goods from boats sitting offshore, increasing our im...