Thursday, July 28, 2022

The Strong Dollar Is Wreaking Havoc Globally — And It’s Just Getting Started - Bloomberg

The Strong Dollar Is Wreaking Havoc Globally — And It's Just Getting Started


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-28/how-a-strong-usd-dxy-is-pushing-the-global-economy-to-recession?sref=woWS9Szx

ByRuth Carson and Cormac Mullen
July 27, 2022 at 8:00 PM EDT



George Boubouras was at his home in east Melbourne, taking in a cricket match, when his phone suddenly blew up.

It was late on July 13, about 10:45 p.m., and there was an urgency to the texts and calls that came flooding in. The euro had just crashed through parity against the dollar, a level once almost unthinkable, and everyone — clients, fund managers, traders — wanted to know what Boubouras, the head of research at K2 Asset Management, recommend they do. His response was simple: "Don't fight the dollar right now."

Just over an hour later, another jolt came. The Bank of Canada, struggling like the European Central Bank and other central banks to keep its currency steady against the dollar, delivered a full percentage-point increase in interest rates. Almost no one saw it coming. Ten hours later, another shock: the Monetary Authority of Singapore jumped into the foreign-exchange market, announcing a bid to push its currency back higher against the dollar.

At this point, Mitul Kotecha's phone began buzzing alerts non-stop, too. A Singapore-based strategist at TD Securities, Kotecha was vacationing with his wife at a resort in Thailand. It was their 25th anniversary and he was lounging on the beach and the whole scene seemed a little surreal to him. "It was all happening in a crazy short period," he says. "I couldn't believe the mayhem."

The dollar, the currency that powers global trade, is on a tear that has few parallels in modern history. Its ascent is the result primarily of the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate-hiking — it raised by another 75 basis points on Wednesday — and has left a trail of devastation: Driving up the cost of food imports and deepening poverty across much of the world; fueling a debt default and toppling a government in Sri Lanka; and heaping losses on stock and bond investors in financial capitals everywhere.

The greenback now stands at an all-time high, according to some gauges. It's up 15% against a basket of currencies since mid-2021. And with the Fed determined to keep driving rates up to quell inflation — even if it means sinking the US and global economies into recession — there's little that most long-time currency watchers see to brake the dollar's climb.
Greenback gauges at differing levels relative to history but all climbing
It's all a bit reminiscent of the Fed's Paul Volcker-led anti-inflation campaign in the early 1980s. Which is why chatter is growing about the possibility of a redux of the Plaza Accord, the agreement that international policy makers cut to artificially rein in the dollar back then. A similar deal may look like a long shot right now, but with some market metrics suggesting the dollar could easily climb the same amount again — gains that would convulse the global financial system and trigger all sorts of additional pain — it's likely only a matter of time before that talk heats up.

"There is no kryptonite to blow up the dollar's strength immediately, with the Eurozone hampered by the war in Ukraine and China's growth uncertain," said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in Singapore. "There is simply no alternative to the dollar no matter where you look and it's pummeling everything else as a result — economies, other currencies, corporate earnings."

The US currency's rapid ascent is being felt in daily life around the world because it's the lubricant for global commerce — roughly 40% of the $28.5 trillion in annual global trade is priced in greenbacks. Its relentless rise risks creating a self-sustaining "doom loop."

"You have recession concerns leading to dollar strength, and then tightening financial conditions leading to more recession concerns," said Joey Chew, strategist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong. "There's no immediate solution around this."

Demand for the dollar has been hot for a simple reason: when global markets go crazy, investors look for a safe haven. And as the Bank for International Settlements put it, that security is "fulfilled now primarily by the US dollar." The size and strength of the US economy remains unparalleled, Treasuries are still one of the safest ways to store money and the dollar makes up the lion's share of foreign-exchange reserves.
US Treasury Secretary James Baker III speaks to reporters at New York's Plaza Hotel on Sept. 22, 1985, as five industrialized nations agreed on steps to strengthen key European currencies and the Japanese yen against the US dollar.
Photographer: Mario Cabrera/AP Photo

Some of the top dollar gauges reveal its capacity to rise further. While the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index hit a record this month, it is only measured from the end of 2004. The narrower ICE US Dollar Index — its performance against developed peers — is still well below levels seen in the 1980s. It would take a 54% rally to get it back to its peak in 1985, the year of the Plaza Accord

Surging Dollar Stirs Markets Buzz of a 1980s-Style Plaza Accord

Yet circumstances are different this time, said Brendan McKenna, strategist at Wells Fargo Securities in New York. The dollar's strength is not as pronounced — at least not yet —  and the Fed should cut rates at some point next year when the economy cools, easing pressure on the greenback. "Coordinated action to devalue the dollar and support G-10 currencies is probably not as much of a priority at this point,'' he said.

Even so, many of those big economies' currencies are suffering. In addition to the euro's slump, the Japanese yen has plunged to a 24-year low as investors flock to higher yields.

For many emerging markets the damage has been even worse. The Indian rupee, Chilean peso and Sri Lankan rupee have touched record lows this year, despite efforts by some central banks to try to slow the fall. Hong Kong's monetary authority has bought local dollars at a record pace to defend the city's currency peg, while Chile's central bank began a $25 billion intervention after the peso sank more than 20% in five weeks.

"It's not going to work," said Luca Paolini, strategist at Pictet Asset Management Ltd. that oversees $284 billion. "This rise in inflation, the dollar are generation-defining events and it's not something that central banks in emerging markets can do much about."

A strong US dollar is a blessing for Americans traveling to and shopping in Europe. Photographer: Cyril Marcilhacy/Bloomberg

A strong dollar boosts profits for oil producers and exporters of raw materials as well as international companies such as Toyota Motor Corp. that book a large chunk of their earnings in the US. It's also a blessing for American tourists such as 33-year old Fresno-based schoolteacher Mila Ivanova. "It helps having a stronger currency stretch my budget," said Ivanova in London before heading to Scotland and Ireland.

But a mighty greenback hammers almost everyone else.

Tech behemoths that repatriate part of their global earnings back to the US have taken a hit. Microsoft Corp. said the dollar was eating away at its profits, while International Business Machines Corp., which gave Microsoft its first big break back during the last major bout of inflation in the 1980s, blamed the strong dollar for perpetuating a cash-flow squeeze.

'Dollar Ate My Profit' Is Corporate America's Lament Once Again

For anyone looking to challenge the greenback's supremacy right now, Wall Street has a message: Don't bother. A survey of fund managers from Bank of America Corp. show bullish positions on the dollar have surged to their highest level in seven years.

"Only when investors are prepared to embrace high risk assets again do we expect the dollar to turn and this may not happen until the market is convinced that the Fed has changed course," said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank.

There have been bouts of dollar strength before, such as in 2016 or 2018 when the Fed sought to tighten policy, but with the latest data indicating US inflation is at a four-decade high, there's less wiggle room for the Fed. Indeed, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have barely remarked on the greenback's recent gains.

Dollar Smile

Against this landscape of soaring prices, a hawkish Fed and the risk of global recession, the dollar smiles. That's according to a widely-adopted idea coined by former Morgan Stanley currency guru Stephen Jen. The theory is that the currency rises at the two extremes — when the US economy is either in a deep slump or growing strongly — and weakens in the middle, during periods of moderate growth

Greenback continues to benefit from dollar smile characteristics

Boston-based Garrett Melson of Natixis Investment Managers thinks the greenback's grin this time may be a little darker. 

"Macro forces this year have really seen the dollar smile revert back to the 2010's regime, which was more of a vicious cycle than a dollar smile," Melson, whose firm oversees over $1.3 trillion, wrote in a note. US growth is relatively more robust, leading to dollar demand, which pressures the global economy, triggering demand for dollars and US assets as a haven, "and around and around we go." 

What could break the cycle? Investors from Singapore to New York are theorizing about catalysts such as a slowdown, clarity on when the Fed will stop hiking rates, or a material revival in China's economic growth. But it isn't clear when any of these will happen. The US consumer price index climbed to a new generational high of 9.1% in June, and the Fed hasn't hiked rates this quickly since the mid 1990s. Since then, the world economy has changed dramatically. For three decades, China's manufacturing ascent kept a lid on the prices of millions of manufactured products, even as raw material costs rose. As the Asian nation's supply of cheap labor and capital finally began to dry up, price pressures began to build again. Then came the trade war with the US, the pandemic and Putin's invasion of Ukraine, throwing a finely balanced global trade system into disarray and causing energy prices to soar. With the world's second-biggest economy still clinging to its Covid-zero policy, even at the cost of slower growth, a return to normal seems distant.  

Speculative bullish dollar bets are far from extreme levels
With so many uncertainties, central banks from Australia to Canada have little choice but to follow the US and raise borrowing costs to combat inflation. Expectations of fresh rate hikes are being revised higher by the week. And without more clarity on when the cycle may end, few investors anywhere are willing to bet against the greenback yet.

"Even if it's at a historic high, it still does not mean everyone is going to take off their position," said HSBC's Chew. "We don't think there is a turnaround at this point."

Wednesday, July 27, 2022

Noah Smith: The financialization of tech vs Chinese industrial policy.

The financialization of tech

China is racing ahead in semiconductors and drones while we're building better ways to separate retail investors from their savings.


Fifteen years ago, if you wanted to make it in America — if you wanted to get in on the ground floor of that smooth upward escalator — you went into the finance industry. Lots of people were upset about this. Our best and brightest, they said, were dedicating their effort and their intelligence to finding new ways to sell each other complex financial products instead of building the technologies of tomorrow. When the financial house of cards collapsed in 2008, everyone who complained naturally felt vindicated.

In the decade that followed that crash, it seemed like the problem was fixing itself. Wall Street crashed, and the Dodd-Frank legislation tamed the high-flying sector. Talent streamed out of investment banking and headed west, to Silicon Valley and the burgeoning tech industry. Google and Amazon and Facebook were the new Goldman and Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch, and startups were the new hedge funds.

And it seemed to work to society's benefit. Sure, some folks groused about Facebook ads and the occasional goofy startup. But the second tech boom gave us electric cars that actually sold, smartphone cameras good enough to make professional movies, e-commerce that sustained us through the pandemic and helped create a small business boom, video conferencing and workflow apps that made remote work a reality, convenient payment apps, cheap rockets that can take off and land, better batteries, mRNA vaccines, and much more. We had successfully redirected national resources from finance to tech, and we were getting tangible benefits. And most Americans appreciated those benefits.

During the later years of the second tech boom, however, I started to notice another trend. Tech companies were increasingly getting in on the finance game. Not so much in the lending space, but in payments and trading. Payments are a utility — the plumbing of the financial world — and here the tech industry was producing a lot of real value (a prime example being Stripe, which lets me receive payments for this blog). But trading — which along with lending drove much of the finance industry's expansion from 1980 to 2008 — is another matter entirely.

In recent years, trading has taken an increasingly prominent place in the fintech world. Platforms like Robinhood have onboarded a whole ecosystem of retail investors (that's finance-ese for "regular folks") into the markets. And cryptocurrency and web3 are hard at work creating new assets for people to trade, and new markets in which to trade them. Both fintech and crypto/web3 saw enormous, record inflows of VC funding in 2021. Here's TechCrunch on the fintech boom from January 2022:

In 2021, global fintech funding jumped to a new record of $131.5 billion across 4,969 deals. That compares to $49 billion across 3,491 deals in 2020. As you can see, the pace at which capital was invested into fintech startups in 2021 grew much more rapidly than total deal count, leading to larger rounds on average. The CB Insights data that we're citing here also helps put the pace of fintech investing into context compared to its peer startup groups, with financial technology companies raising one in every five venture capital dollars last year, or some 21%.

And here's Blockworks on the crypto boom, also from January 2022:

In 2021, venture capitalists invested over $33 billion into crypto and blockchain startups, according to a report by Galaxy Digital…

About $22 billion, or 67%, went into rounds with deals over $100 million. Companies that focus on digital asset trading or building in Web3 raised the most capital overall, the report found. 

And of course these numbers are proxies for the real resources being redirected toward trading tech — smart engineers, bold entrepreneurs, high-end computer chips, and so on.

Of course these numbers will come down — along with everything else — in the wake of this year's tech crash. But when I look at the redirection of the technology industry's resources toward trading, I see an uncomfortable echo of the financialization boom of the 2000s. Finance — especially behavioral finance — gives us plenty of reasons to question whether trading, past a certain point, is simply a way to separate foolish retail investors from their hard-earned savings. And it's disturbing to think that while China is leaping ahead in semiconductors and leading the world in drone technology, America's brightest minds are spending their time and energy thinking of new ways to trade tokens back and forth.

Tuesday, July 26, 2022

Brad Delong: Harry Jaffa (1959): Lincoln in the Mid-1800s Wresting America from Its Then-Probable Future of Herrenvolk Democracy

 This is Grasping Reality—The SubStack, by Brad DeLong.

READING: Harry Jaffa (1959): Lincoln in the Mid-1800s Wresting America from Its Then-Probable Future of Herrenvolk Democracy

Why Harry Jaffa would puke if he saw those in Claremont, CA, who pretend to revere his name; from "Crisis of the House Divided: An Interpretation of the Lincoln-Douglas Debates"

Harry Jaffa (1959): Crisis of the House Divided: An Interpretation of the Lincoln-Douglas Debates: XX. The End of Manifest Destiny: ‘…Lincoln knew that the vast acquisitions of the Mexican War were only a foretaste of what Douglas himself believed to be in store if he ever gained control of the nation s foreign policy. Only a national commitment to confine slavery, Lincoln believed, would put an end to the drive for foreign conquest and domination... [given] the dynamism in the coincidence of the ambitions of Douglas and the slave power. It was this coincidence that repealed the Missouri Compromise.... Douglas did strike a bargain with the Southerners, and there was nothing in his policy or principles which inhibited him from indulging any requirement of slavery. That Douglas would have consented to the expansion of slavery as a means to other ends we can hardly doubt....

The fourth question Lincoln put to Douglas at Freeport has also been overshadowed by the famous second question. It, too, has a significance that can hardly be exaggerated. Lincoln asked: "Are you in favor of acquiring additional territory, in disregard of how such acquisition may affect the nation on the slavery question?" Here is an extract from Douglas's reply:

this is a young and growing nation. It swarms as often as a hive of bees, and... there must be hives in which they can gather and make their honey. In less than fifteen years, if the same progress that has distinguished this country for the last fifteen years continues, every foot of vacant land between this and the Pacific Ocean, owned by the United States, will be occupied. Will you not continue to increase at the end of fifteen years as well as now? I tell you, increase, and multiply, and expand, is the law of this nation s existence. You cannot limit this great republic by mere boundary lines, saying, thus far shalt thou go, and no further." Any one of you gentlemen might as well say to a son twelve years old that he is big enough, and must not grow any larger, and in order to prevent his growth put a hoop around him to keep him to his present size. What would be the result? Either the hoop must burst... or the child must die.

So it would be with this great nation. With our natural increase... with the tide of emigration that is fleeing despotism in the old world to seek a refuge in our own, there is a constant torrent pouring into this country that requires more land, more territory upon which to settle, and just as fast as our interests and our destiny require additional territory in the north, in the south, or in the islands of the ocean, I am for it, and when we acquire it will leave the people, according to the Nebraska Bill, free to do as they please on the subject of slavery and every other question…

Let us note that, according to this doctrine, the land area of the Western Hemisphere became usable only by being incorporated into the United. States!... Lincoln could see no reason in 1858 why every expansion of freedom would have to take place by an expansion of the boundaries of the United States. How Lincoln scorned Douglas's expansionism we may gather from the following rebuttal to Douglas's answer to his fourth Freeport question. It was delivered at Galesburg:

If Judge Douglas s policy upon this question succeeds, and gets fairly settled down, until all opposition is crushed out, the next thing will be a grab for the territory of poor Mexico, and invasion of the rich lands of South America, then the adjoining islands will follow, each one of which promises additional slave fields. And this question is to be left to the people of those countries for settlement. When we shall get Mexico, I don't know whether the Judge will be in favor of the Mexican people that we get with it settling this question for themselves and all others; because we know the Judge has a great horror for "mongrels", and I understand that the people of Mexico are most decidedly a race of "mongrels". I understand that there is not more than one person there out of eight who is pure white, and I suppose from the Judge's previous declaration that when we get Mexico or any considerable portion of it, that he will be in favor of these "mongrels" settling this question, which would bring him some¬ what into collision with his horror of an inferior race…

The ugly potentialities of a policy of lebensraum combined with racial supremacy should hardly need explanatory comment today. The accents of sarcasm in the foregoing extract can scarcely escape notice. Of the "mongrels" to the south Douglas had spoken thus at Springfield, July 1, 1858:

We are witnessing the result of giving civil and political rights to inferior races in Mexico, Central America, in South America, and in the West India Islands. Those young men who went from here to Mexico to fight the battles of their country in the Mexican war, can tell you the fruits of negro equality with the white man. They will tell you that the result of that equality is social amalgamation, demoralization and degradation, below the capacity for self-government…

Douglas's white-supremacy American empire, would have been a very different polity from anything envisaged in the pristine purity of the republican ideal of the Founding Fathers. There would have been precious little "popular sovereignty" for the natives for whom Douglas had such contempt. And there might be many American states today in which, as in the case of the French in Algeria, a privileged minority would be engulfed in the swirling tides of hatred of an unprivileged majority of a different complexion.

The problem of racial adjustment in America today is of an order of magnitude that we could hardly exaggerate. And this problem, as every informed person knows, although dramatized by the struggle of the Negro, is not limited to the Negro. Indians, Mexicans, Orientals have all had a desperate struggle, varying in times, places, and intensity, to achieve the dignity which our fundamental law and principles hold out to all. Aspiration must, as Lincoln implied in his standard maxim doctrine, always transcend fulfillment. Yet it is essential that the possibility of fulfillment does not fall so far short of the aspiration as to make it not a source of hope but a mockery.

Douglas's formula for solving the slavery question, in which the nation was already hopelessly entangled, would have made that question infinitely more complicated. It is almost inconceivable that democratic processes could have survived such complications.

And we can only shudder to think what the twentieth century would be like if the United States had entered it as first and foremost of totalitarian powers.

The only moral justification of Douglas's policy—as of revisionist historiography—is a tacit belief in the idea of progress, an idea that economic forces were "inevitably working for freedom", both on the plains of Kansas and elsewhere. Only such a belief could justify the principle that all harsh moral alternatives were to be avoided, that one could safely "agree to disagree". The silent forces of history were working for freedom, if only the politicians would give them time.

Lincoln’s whole policy, on the contrary, was a denial that things would take care of themselves, that progress would result from anything but man’s foresight, judgment, and courage. The impulse of the Revolution had been a mighty one, Lincoln believed, and great things had been achieved because of it. But the spirit of '76 and the spirit of Nebraska were utter incompatibilities. The Nebraska bill could never even have been considered if there had not been an enormous change in public opinion, a change for the worse that augured still further changes for the worse, changes which portended the utter extinction of a weary mankind's hope that there might at last be a demonstration of man's capability to govern himself.

To avert these changes no reliance could be placed on anything so absurd as "soil and climate." The only reliance, the only rock upon which man's political salvation might be built, was man's moral sense, the determination of some men to be free, and the awareness that no man can rightfully achieve freedom for himself or, in the presence of a just God, long retain his freedom if he would deny to any other man, of whatever race or nation, the right to equal freedom.


Crisis of the House Divided is both a great and a crazy book. It is, on one level, Jaffa’s attempt to read the minds of Stephen Douglas and Abraham Lincoln—what thoughts lay behind the words they spoke. Or, perhaps, it is something else: it is Jaffa’s attempt to read the minds of what those who heard the words of Douglas and Lincoln, and took them seriously and into their hearts, would have thought in the fullness of time and historical development as those words wrought their influence.

And there is more: Jaffa’s reading assumes that the speaker (or the listener) thinks in the close-reading Talmudic-philosophical mode of Leo Strauss.

Not, I hasten to add, that Jaffa’s image of the speaker or the listener thinks as Leo Strauss did. Leo Strauss was, as he boasted: fascist, authoritarian, imperial. Strauss’s vision of a good social order was one that scorned hoi polloi and their demagogic panderer-masters/slaves, whether socialist or Nazi. It was one in which rule was handled by gentlemen—think of the Athenian aristocrats of the classical age who admired Spartan discipline—advised by philosophers, or at least taught by philosophers not to be pointlessly and counterproductively cruel. Thus when Strauss reads an author he likes, he is smart enough to twist what they write, via selective shifts of focus and attention, strongly toward that doctrine. And, as Sokrates said, the writings cannot then defend themselves against misinterpretation.

So is this procedure in the hands of Harry Jaffa bound to lead to similar misinterpretative disasters? I think not. Very few of the authors whom Srrauss pounds into his Procrustean beds share Strauss’s fascist, authoritarian, imperial values. But Jaffa shares Lincoln’s democratic, egalitarian, republican, American values. And Jaffa understands Douglas’s expansionist, imperial, populist, American values. And they were both very smart men, eloquent, and very clever at using words to say exactly what they wanted to say, and no more.

Thus both Lincoln and Douglas—even the stenographic-reported versions of their words published in the newspapers, which is what we now have—repay a close reading undertaken with Talmudic care, and an awareness of and concern for the implications and ramifications of their positions, if it is carried out by someone able to empathize with their project, and willing to give them a fair reading via a hermaneutics of charity.

And, IMHO, Jaffa is able to do this.

And so I think his procedure produces many insights.

Do note that Jaffa is not unique here in so filling-in the thoughts and actions according to this particular model. He is tilling fertile ground. After all, Ronald Syme wrote his biography of Augustus and his age, The Roman Revolution, as if Augustus had thought like Mussolini Syme’s book is the best book on the age of Augustus,

Monday, July 18, 2022

Dean Baker: The Washington Post Says the Economy Is Terrible: Falling Gas Price Edition

 The Washington Post Says the Economy Is Terrible: Falling Gas Price Edition

Dean Baker via Patreon


After the constant hyping of higher gas prices by the media, you might think that falling gas prices would also be big news. After all, everyone has to buy gas and it is a price that is in their face every time they are on the highway.

Of course, the Washington Post is not ignoring the drop in gas prices. Yesterday they warnedreaders, “Gas prices may surge again ahead of midterm elections.”

The gist of the story is that as stronger sanctions on Russian oil go into effect in December, it could mean that more Russian oil is pulled off world markets. The piece tells us:

“An internal U.S. Treasury analysis projects that could send the price of oil soaring 50 percent above where it is today. Some market analysts are warning of potentially steeper climbs, which could push gas prices beyond $6 a gallon.”

Okay, that would be bad news if it happens, but as the piece itself points out, the sanctions to date have not removed much Russian oil from world markets. The oil that Russia is not selling to Europe and the United States is instead going to India, China, and other countries not honoring the sanctions.

It is very likely this will continue, which the Biden administration itself recognizes. That is why it is trying to push through a complex scheme for capping the price on Russian oil. If most of Russia’s current exports continue to find their way to other countries, there would be little impact on world oil prices.

While it may turn out to be the case that the sanctions are more effective in the future than they have been to date, the futures markets apparently do not expect this outcome. The current price for December oil futures is more than 10 percent below the mid-July price. Markets can be, and often are, wrong, but it would have been worth giving the perspective of some of the people who expect oil prices to fall, rather than rise.

Sunday, July 3, 2022

Germany’s Union Head Warns of Collapse of Entire Industries - Bloomberg

Germany's Union Head Warns of Collapse of Entire Industries

by Alexander Kell

Top German industries could face collapse because of cuts in the supplies of Russian natural gas, the country's top union official warned before crisis talks with Chancellor Olaf Scholz starting Monday.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-03/germany-s-union-head-warns-of-collapse-of-entire-industries?sref=woWS9Szx

Top German industries could face collapse because of cuts in the supplies of Russian natural gas, the country's top union official warned before crisis talks with Chancellor Olaf Scholz starting Monday. 

"Because of the gas bottlenecks, entire industries are in danger of permanently collapsing: aluminum, glass, the chemical industry," said Yasmin Fahimi, the head of the German Federation of Trade Unions (DGB), in an interview with the newspaper Bild am Sonntag. "Such a collapse would have massive consequences for the entire economy and jobs in Germany."

The energy crisis is already driving inflation to record highs, she said. Fahimi is calling for a price cap on energy for households. The rising costs for Co2 emissions mean further burdens for households and companies, Fahimi added. The crisis could lead to social and labor unrest, she said.  

Gas Shock

Potential German GDP losses due to production cutbacks in the case of natural gas rationing*

Source: Bundesbank

Note: Calculations based on the 2018 German input-output table produced by the Federal statistics office. * Shocks to non-prioritized industrial sectors and to services depending on the natural gas intensity of their activities.

Economics Minister Robert Habeck said on Saturday that the government is working on ways to address the surging costs both utilities and their customers face, without giving details. Earlier he had warned that the squeeze on Russian gas supplies risks creating deeper turmoil, likening the situation to the role of Lehman Brothers in triggering the financial crisis in 2008.

Russia has reduced shipments through Nord Stream pipeline by 60% and the pipeline is scheduled for a full shutdown this month for maintenance. Germany has raised doubts that Nord Stream will resume supply after that.

Germany Risks a Cascade of Utility Failures, Economy Chief Says - Bloomberg

Germany Risks a Cascade of Utility Failures, Economy Chief Says

by Alexander Kell

Germany should prepare for deeper cuts in Russian gas supplies because President Vladimir Putin is pursuing a conscious strategy of driving up prices to undermine European unity, Economy Minister Robert Habeck said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-02/germany-risks-a-cascade-of-utility-failures-economy-chief-says?sref=woWS9Szx

Top German industries could face collapse because of cuts in the supplies of Russian natural gas, the country's top union official warned before crisis talks with Chancellor Olaf Scholz starting Monday. 

"Because of the gas bottlenecks, entire industries are in danger of permanently collapsing: aluminum, glass, the chemical industry," said Yasmin Fahimi, the head of the German Federation of Trade Unions (DGB), in an interview with the newspaper Bild am Sonntag. "Such a collapse would have massive consequences for the entire economy and jobs in Germany."

The energy crisis is already driving inflation to record highs, she said. Fahimi is calling for a price cap on energy for households. The rising costs for Co2 emissions mean further burdens for households and companies, Fahimi added. The crisis could lead to social and labor unrest, she said.  

Gas Shock

Potential German GDP losses due to production cutbacks in the case of natural gas rationing*

Source: Bundesbank

Note: Calculations based on the 2018 German input-output table produced by the Federal statistics office. * Shocks to non-prioritized industrial sectors and to services depending on the natural gas intensity of their activities.

Economics Minister Robert Habeck said on Saturday that the government is working on ways to address the surging costs both utilities and their customers face, without giving details. Earlier he had warned that the squeeze on Russian gas supplies risks creating deeper turmoil, likening the situation to the role of Lehman Brothers in triggering the financial crisis in 2008.

Russia has reduced shipments through Nord Stream pipeline by 60% and the pipeline is scheduled for a full shutdown this month for maintenance. Germany has raised doubts that Nord Stream will resume supply after that.

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    Germany Risks a Cascade of Utility Failures, Economy Chief Says
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    Germany Risks a Cascade of Utility Failures, Economy Chief Says

    • Further gas cuts would be logical in Putin 'economic warfare'
    • High natural-gas prices risk creating domino effect: Habeck
    Robert Habeck
    Robert HabeckPhotographer: Liesa Johannssen-Koppitz/Bloomberg
    July 2, 2022, 3:48 PM EDT

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    Germany should prepare for deeper cuts in Russian gas supplies because President Vladimir Putin is pursuing a conscious strategy of driving up prices to undermine European unity, Economy Minister Robert Habeck said.

    "We aren't dealing with erratic decisions but with economic warfare, completely rational and very clear," Habeck, the deputy chancellor in Olaf Scholz's government, said Saturday on a panel. "After a 60% reduction, the next one logically follows."

    German leaders are stepping up warnings of impending turmoil and natural-gas shortages in Europe's biggest economy, which relies on Russia for about one-third of its energy. Putin has gradually reduced supplies after European countries imposed sanctions in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

    German utilities are at risk of cascading failures that might require activating a legal clause that would allow them to pass on price increases outside of contract commitments, Habeck said.  

    Germany has refrained from activating the measure for now because it would lead to an "immediate price explosion" for consumers, he said at an event sponsored by the Die Zeit weekly. The government is working on an alternative, he said, without elaborating. 

    "If one company were to fail, or other companies were to fail, it's like a domino effect that would very quickly lead into a deep recession," he said.

    European energy companies are facing a squeeze after Russia curbed flows on a key gas link earlier this month, forcing utilities to buy fuel on the spot market at elevated prices. High power prices are increasingly prompting German factories and businesses to curb demand and the government has activated the second stage of a three-stage gas emergency plan. 

    Gas Shock

    Potential German GDP losses due to production cutbacks in the case of natural gas rationing*

    Source: Bundesbank

    Note: Calculations based on the 2018 German input-output table produced by the Federal statistics office. * Shocks to non-prioritized industrial sectors and to services depending on the natural gas intensity of their activities.

    Russia has reduced shipments through Nord Stream by 60% and the pipeline is scheduled for a full shutdown this month for maintenance. Germany has raised doubts that Nord Stream will resume supply after that.

    Russia's goal is to keep energy prices high and "destroy the unity and solidarity of the country," Habeck said.

    Germany's government and energy giant Uniper SE are discussing stabilization measures. Finance Minister Christian Lindner said any additional government assistance would be in the form of a loan guarantee.

    Gas rationing -- if it came to that -- presents challenges because the grid often isn't separated between residential and commercial customers, Habeck said.

    If a factory is connected to the gas network and a whole part of the city is connected to it, then this factory can't be taken out of the network. 

    "That will probably then be regulated at the expense of the factories that are not connected to a mixed network," Habeck said. 

    Household customers in Germany are protected by law from gas shutoffs.