As I always say, don't conflate trade deals with trade (or the trade deficit) http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/as-i-always-say-dont-conflate-trade-deals-with-trade-or-the-trade-deficit/ Over at the NYT . Special for OTE readers, parts that had to be cut for space: "Since the mid-1970s, the US has regularly imported more than we've exported. Net exports (exports-imports) have averaged just under -4 percent of GDP since 2000. Trade deficits are by definition a drag on growth, and that's especially true in sectors, like manufacturing, that drive the deficit. By linking the trade deficit to manufacturing job loss, Trump made a legitimate argument that resonated with some of his core voters. There are, of course, many moving parts in the economy, and the trade deficit's drag on growth has often been offset by other components of GDP. In 2007, the trade deficit was -5 percent of GDP while the unemployment rate was a low 4.6 percent. But the offset in play—the housing bubbl...