NYTimes.com: The Democratic Electorate on Twitter Is Not the Actual Democratic Electorate

Nate Cohen and company explore polling on support for "left" vs "moderate" positions on a wide range of political polling questions, and compare social media, i.e. Twitter, Democratic positions with "real world" positions from broader polling and exit polls from previous elections. Nate is a serious and innovative data scientist. This article is apparently also the foundation of Speaker Pelosi's critique of public perceptions of real political strength based on Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Twitter followers. 

I think the data analysis in the article is important and expertly done. However, it also has a "just so" embedded narrative seeking to undermine or minimize Sanders, Warren, and Kamala Harris strengths. Nevermind TWitter, actual polling of the announced. candidates shows the leftward ones so far sharply outpolling the "moderate" ones. The data sets used are very rich, but there are many narratives that can built from it. 

For example the majority of observations show policy positioning is not the primary incentive at all. I think this is partly explained (but hard to quantify without a survey asking some better questions) by the preference many Americans have for character based assessments of candidates. "Character" can also mask serious social biases, like race or gender, or not, but it can dominate "rational" policy preferences among the great majority not schooled in public policy. "Mayor Pete" is gaining strength rapidly based on his gift of compelling narratives about values. He has not said a lot about policy yet. Obama's appeal had a large character component, a quality he respected throughout his presidency. It could be that AOC and Sanders popularity outpacing real interest in "left wing" positions is also character driven: both seem more honest and transparent than many others, whether you agree or disagree with everything they say.

I 

From The New York Times:

The Democratic Electorate on Twitter Is Not the Actual Democratic Electorate

A detailed look at the voters with the numbers to decide the 2020 Democratic nominee.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/08/upshot/democratic-electorate-twitter-real-life.html