Sunday, July 7, 2019

Trump’s Trade War With China Is Already Changing the World [feedly]

Trump's Trade War With China Is Already Changing the World
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/06/trumps-trade-war-with-china-is-changing-the-world/592411/?utm_source=feed

At a G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, this week, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are set to have a one-on-one meeting, and hopes are high that a good conversation will restart stalled trade negotiations and convince the White House to hold off on further tariffs against China.

For Alfred LaSpina, the outcome may not matter very much, though. When LaSpina, the new vice president of eLumigen, based in Troy, Michigan, began thinking about a supply chain for the startup's industrial lighting products, China automatically came to mind: LaSpina—an old friend of mine—has had experience with manufacturing in China before, and knew he could find reliable, experienced suppliers there. Then came Trump's unexpected tariff hike on Chinese imports in May. LaSpina and his colleagues began to think twice, and they are now looking into alternative options in Southeast Asia. With so much uncertainty in the relationship between Beijing and Washington, he believes that's just the smart thing to do.

"If tariffs or disruption rear its head again, you can't afford to not have product coming in," he told me.

LaSpina's dilemma is just one small example of how the confrontation between the United States and China is already reshaping the world—in both good and bad ways—and even a final trade pact may not slow the momentum for change. Deteriorating ties between the two countries are influencing everything from grand geopolitical strategy to our daily lives: where products at your local Walmart are made; where jobs will be created or lost; the technology we will (and won't) be using; who may be studying next to you at Harvard; and how to invest your money.

[Read: To China, all's fair in love and trade wars]

That means we could be at a history-altering moment. Since the 1990s, policymakers and business titans have assumed that the globe will become more and more integrated. Perhaps the greatest symbol of that process was the relationship between the U.S. and China. Here were two powers with polar-opposite political systems and ideologies that were still becoming intertwined through bonds of trade, money and individuals—so much so that a term was coined to describe it: Chimerica. China became the central hub of planet-spanning links of production and exchange. Sure, people had the occasional gripes about human rights, closed markets, and other issues. But with the fall of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, the creation of one world seemed the inevitable future.

Not anymore. With that partnership between the U.S. and China anything but assured, businesses are redrawing the map of global production. Apple is reportedly exploring shifting final assembly of as much as a third of some devices out of China to Southeast Asia or elsewhere. (Apple did not respond to a request for comment.) Terry Gou, the founder of Taiwan's Foxconn, which makes Apple gear in Chinese factories, recently said he would urge Apple to produce outside of China.

Other lesser-known companies such as Giant Manufacturing, the world's largest bicycle maker, have already shifted production for U.S. customers. Giant has moved the manufacture of many U.S.-bound models to its home base in Taiwan, and is opening a new factory in Hungary. "The world is no longer flat," Giant's chairwoman, Bonnie Tu, told Bloomberg.

These are far from isolated cases: A survey released in May by two branches of the American Chamber of Commerce in China revealed that about 40 percent of respondents said they have relocated or are considering moving manufacturing operations out of China.

This process has been underway for some time, due to rising costs in China and other factory. American toymaker Hasbro says it has been steadily reducing the share of products sold in the U.S. that are made in China, from 80 percent in 2012 to 67 percent at the end of 2018, and plans to shrink that further in coming years. But the trade war has compelled chief executives to step on the gas. "What companies are doing is accelerating their plans to move out of China," Stephen Lamar, executive vice president of the American Apparel & Footwear Association, told me. He calls it a "generational shift" in how U.S. companies are sourcing their products.

For some countries, that comes as good news. Businesses looking to shift assembly lines from China tend to target other emerging economies as a new base. Modern economic history tells us that the jobs created by such factories in poor countries can jumpstart economic growth and alleviate poverty (as happened in China itself). Already places such as Vietnam have benefited by siphoning factories away from China.

[Read: Things weren't always this bad]

The United States, meanwhile, is probably facing a reordering of its trading relationships (and possibly of its trade disputes, too). Contrary to Trump's boasts, few U.S. firms are "reshoring," or moving production back to the United States from China. (In the American Chamber of Commerce in China survey, fewer than 6 percent said they were considering such a shift.) That means the trade deficit that so irritates the president will likely be reapportioned across different countries. For China, the changing face of global manufacturing puts pressure on Chinese firms to "move up the value chain," as economists call it. No longer able to rely on basic export manufacturing to sustain employment, China's business owners will have to learn to produce higher-quality, more innovative goods to keep the country's growth miracle alive. That's what Beijing's contentious industrial policies—fostering cutting-edge sectors from electric vehicles to microchips with state support—are designed to do.

But here, too, the dispute with the U.S. is potentially wreaking havoc. The Trump administration has been taking steps to keep vital U.S. technology out of Chinese hands—most dramatically, by banning American firms from selling critical components such as microchips to several important Chinese tech companies, including the telecom giant Huawei. Such measures, combined with Beijing's obsession with controlling homegrown technology, could separate the U.S. and China digitally, with consumers in each using different software and gadgets. Beijing has already started that process by erecting the Great Firewall to block many American internet firms from operating in the Chinese market. That's one reason why Chinese netizens live in a distinct online universe, microblogging on Sina Weibo rather than Twitter; and searching on Baidu, not Google.

The growing distrust between the U.S. and China is starting to pull apart their citizens in the real world as well as the digital one. Legislation has been introduced in Congress that would bar any Chinese scientists associated with its military from studying or researching in the United States. This month, Beijing's Ministry of Education issued a warning to Chinese students "of the need to strengthen risk assessment before studying abroad" in the U.S. Huawei, meanwhile, recently booted Americans from its R&D operations at its Shenzhen headquarters. A Huawei spokesman said the company is reviewing its responses to Washington's actions.

This realignment of business, technology and people is also taking place among nations. As China and the U.S. drift apart, a new pattern of global relations may be emerging. For instance, China and Russia are probably friendlier today than they were for most of the period when both were Communist. Russian President Vladimir Putin showed up at Xi's hotel with ice cream to celebrate the Chinese leader's birthday while the two attended a conference in Tajikistan this month. Italy boldly broke ranks with the U.S. and some of its European allies earlier this year to become the first G7 country to sign on to Xi's controversial infrastructure-building program, the Belt and Road Initiative. For many countries with economic ties to China but strategic alliances with the United States, straddling the fence between the two will becoming more and more difficult.

[Read: The U.S. can't make allies take sides]

The U.S.-China conflict "puts Australia and a lot of the countries in Asia in a precarious position," Merriden Varrall, a nonresident fellow at the Lowy Institute, a Sydney-based policy think tank, told me. "We are not responding with the sophistication the issue deserves. I don't think we fully realize the challenge we are up against."

Just as the meshing of the U.S. and China was representative of the greater trend toward global cooperation, their new frostiness may be equally symbolic of rising nationalism and anti-globalization fervor, present from the United Kingdom to India. How far will this redesign of global business and diplomacy progress?

Lamar of the American Apparel & Footwear Association thinks that if a trade pact is reached and tariffs are removed, some business may try to return to normal—moving supply chains out of an efficient China is not so easy. But the uncertainty will remain. "There is a lot of feeling that we are in a long-term struggle as to who is going to be the leader of the 21st century," he said. "Even in a post-Trump Washington, we're still going to see a focus on China—is the country truly a partner of our country?"


 -- via my feedly newsfeed

At Work, Expertise Is Falling Out of Favor [feedly]

INteresting take on the decline of traditional expertise as AI and automation assume many decision making routines.

At Work, Expertise Is Falling Out of Favor
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/07/future-of-work-expertise-navy/590647/?utm_source=feed

In the faint predawn light, the ship doesn't look unusual. It is one more silhouette looming pier-side at Naval Base San Diego, a home port of the U.S. Pacific Fleet. And the scene playing out in its forward compartment, as the crew members ready themselves for departure, is as old as the Navy itself. Three sailors in blue coveralls heave on a massive rope. "Avast!" a fourth shouts. A percussive thwack announces the pull of a tugboat—and 3,000 tons of warship are under way.

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But now the sun is up, and the differences start to show.

Most obvious is the ship's lower contour. Built in 2014 from 30 million cans' worth of Alcoa aluminum, Littoral Combat Ship 10, the USS Gabrielle Giffords, rides high in the water on three separate hulls and is powered like a jet ski—that is, by water-breathing jets instead of propellers. This lets it move swiftly in the coastal shallows (or "littorals," in seagoing parlance), where it's meant to dominate. Unlike the older ships now gliding past—guided-missile cruisers, destroyers, amphibious transports—the littoral combat ship was built on the concept of "modularity." There's a voluminous hollow in the ship's belly, and its insides can be swapped out in port, allowing it to set sail as a submarine hunter, minesweeper, or surface combatant, depending on the mission.

The ship's most futuristic aspect, though, is its crew. The LCS was the first class of Navy ship that, because of technological change and the high cost of personnel, turned away from specialists in favor of "hybrid sailors" who have the ability to acquire skills rapidly. It was designed to operate with a mere 40 souls on board—one-fifth the number aboard comparably sized "legacy" ships and a far cry from the 350 aboard a World War II destroyer. The small size of the crew means that each sailor must be like the ship itself: a jack of many trades and not, as 240 years of tradition have prescribed, a master of just one.

On most Navy ships, only a boatswain's mate—the oldest of the Navy's 60-odd occupations—would handle the ropes, which can quickly remove a finger or foot. But none of the three sailors heaving on the Giffords's ropes is a line-handling professional. One is an information-systems technician. The second is a gunner's mate. And the third is a chef. "We wear a lot of hats here," Culinary Specialist 2nd Class Damontrae Butler says. After the ropes are put away, he reports to the ship's galley, picks up a basting brush, and starts readying a tray of garlic bread for the oven.

Two boatswain's mates are on hand, but only to instruct and oversee—and they too wear lots of hats, between them: fire-team leader, search-and-rescue swimmer, crane operator, deck patroller, helicopter-salvage coordinator. The operative concept is "minimal manning." On the bridge, five crew members do the jobs usually done by 12, thanks to high-tech display screens and the ship's several thousand remote sensors. And belowdecks, once-distinct engineering roles—electrician's mate, engine man, machinist, gas-turbine technician—fall to the same handful of sailors.

The USS Gabrielle Giffords at dock in San Diego (Peter Bohler)

Minimal manning—and with it, the replacement of specialized workers with problem-solving generalists—isn't a particularly nautical concept. Indeed, it will sound familiar to anyone in an organization who's been asked to "do more with less"—which, these days, seems to be just about everyone. Ten years from now, the Deloitte consultant Erica Volini projects, 70 to 90 percent of workers will be in so-called hybrid jobs or superjobs—that is, positions combining tasks once performed by people in two or more traditional roles. Visit SkyWest Airlines' careers site, and you'll see that the company is looking for "cross utilized agents" capable of ticketing, marshaling and servicing aircraft, and handling luggage. At the online shoe company Zappos, which famously did away with job titles a few years back, employees are encouraged to take on multiple roles by joining "circles" that tackle different responsibilities. If you ask Laszlo Bock, Google's former culture chief and now the head of the HR start-up Humu, what he looks for in a new hire, he'll tell you "mental agility." "What companies are looking for," says Mary Jo King, the president of the National Résumé Writers' Association, "is someone who can be all, do all, and pivot on a dime to solve any problem."

The phenomenon is sped by automation, which usurps routine tasks, leaving employees to handle the nonroutine and unanticipated—and the continued advance of which throws the skills employers value into flux. It would be supremely ironic if the advance of the knowledge economy had the effect of devaluing knowledge. But that's what I heard, recurrently, while reporting this story. "The half-life of skills is getting shorter," I was told by IBM's Joanna Daly, who oversaw an apprenticeship program that trained tech employees for new jobs within the company in as few as six months. By 2020, a 2016 World Economic Forum report predicted, "more than one-third of the desired core skill sets of most occupations" will not have been seen as crucial to the job when the report was published. If that's the case, I asked John Sullivan, a prominent Silicon Valley talent adviser, why should anyone take the time to master anything at all? "You shouldn't!" he replied.

As a rule of thumb, statements out of Silicon Valley should be deflated by half to control for hyperbole. Still, the ramifications of Sullivan's comment unfurl quickly. Minimal manning—and the evolution of the economy more generally—requires a different kind of worker, with not only different acquired skills but different inherent abilities. It has implications for the nature and utility of a college education, for the path of careers, for inequality and employability—even for the generational divide. And that's to say nothing of its potential impact on product quality and worker safety, or on the nature of the satisfactions one might derive from work. Or, for that matter, on the relevance of the question What do you want to be when you grow up?

How deep these implications go depends, ultimately, on how closely employers embrace the concepts behind minimal manning. The Navy, curiously, has pushed the idea forward with an abandon unseen anywhere on land. Within a few years, 35 littoral combat ships will be afloat, along with three minimally manned destroyers of the new Zumwalt class. The effort seemed to me a good test case for the broader questions bedeviling the economy: Can a few brilliant, quick-thinking generalists really replace a fleet of specialists? Is the value of true expertise in serious decline?

[Read: The case against specialists]

I wanted to try to answer these questions—which is why, that morning in San Diego, I joined the crew of the Giffords as it prepared to set sail.

A warship is, in the words of one Navy analysis, a highly complicated "socio-technical system." It operates in an environment that is often hostile, even outside of war; its crew—isolated by vast waters—must be ready for every eventuality. Traditionally, navies handled this by staffing their ships amply. Spain's wood-and-sail Santísima Trinidad carried upwards of 1,000 men at the Battle of Trafalgar in 1805, providing redundancy in the face of any contingency. If one system failed, there was a backup. This may not have been efficient, but it was effective. The U.S. Navy adopted that model long ago—and has not lost a ship in combat since the Korean War.

But the end of the draft, in 1973, brought rising labor costs and, with them, a shift in thinking. "For my entire 39-year career," the late Admiral Jeremy Boorda said in the early '90s, "we always talked about buying ships and manning them with people … I think we need to think about things differently now. We need to figure out how to have the fewest number of people possible, and then build [ships] to make them as effective as they need to be."

In 1995, Boorda converted an aging cruiser, the USS Yorktown, into an experimental "smart ship" on which watches were combined, engine rooms were unmanned, and sailors communicated by handheld radio instead of stationary telephones. The result was promising but modest: a 4 percent reduction in crew size. A series of naval reports concluded that "big dollar savings" could be achieved only with more significant changes, including greater automation and the selection and training of "generalists rather than specialists."

Then, in 2001, Donald Rumsfeld arrived at the Pentagon. The new secretary of defense carried with him a briefcase full of ideas from the corporate world: downsizing, reengineering, "transformational" technologies. Almost immediately, what had been an experimental concept became an article of faith. In what Ronald O'Rourke of the Congressional Research Service has called "an analytical virgin birth," the Navy committed itself to developing the littoral combat ship and the Zumwalt-class destroyer, using the principles of minimal manning. The LCS came first, partly because it borrowed an Australian design for a passenger ferry and could therefore boost the fleet size quickly.

"I think when the Navy started off, they had a really good plan," Paul Francis, of the Government Accountability Office, told the Senate in 2016. "They were going to build two ships, experimental ships." But in 2005, having assured itself that "optimal manning works," the Navy decided to skip the experimentation and move straight to construction. From this point on, whenever the Navy tried to study the feasibility of minimal manning, its analysis was colored by the fact that—on these ships, at least—it had to work. Dozens of littoral combat ships were on their way. The Giffords was the 10th to deploy.

As the skyline of downtown San Diego receded in the distance, we found ourselves approaching a pier that lay along the final extremity of land before the open Pacific. Shimmering far off to the left was Coronado Beach, the legendary training site for Navy SEALs. To the right was the tower of a nuclear submarine. Our mission for the day was to unload ammunition from the ship to an onshore supply base.

On deck I spotted a man holding a pair of high-tech binoculars and calling out distances: "Three hundred yards. Two hundred yards." Turns out it was Butler, who, in addition to his other jobs, was working to become a certified lookout. "You have to be adaptable, very adaptable to the circumstances, or things can really take a turn in a different direction," he told me, while estimating the distance and bearing of an approaching yacht under the tutelage of another sailor. "For me, that means thinking about the task you're doing, not the task you'll have to do." That is: not dwelling on the garlic bread in the oven. "And asking the right questions. Uh, 500 yards?" He checked his eyeball estimate with the range finder. "Five hundred yards."

What other jobs did he have? Should a fire break out, Butler said, he would become a "boundaryman" and work to stop the spread of smoke to other compartments—a job that, on another ship, would be supervised by a full-time damage-control specialist. The LCS has only two of these—which is one reason it has a "survivability" rating of 1, the lowest score possible. If the ship is critically struck, crew members are expected to simply abandon ship and escape. Traditionalists hate the idea.

Culinary Specialist 2nd Class Damontrae Butler works on deck and in the kitchen. (Peter Bohler)

Butler wasn't the only character to reappear in different form. During an all-hands meeting—the smallness of the group exaggerated by the large size of the flight deck they stood on—someone pointed to the figure strolling in from stage right. It was one of the two boatswain's mates who had been overseeing the line-handlers that morning. He had swapped his blue coveralls for head-to-toe green camo, and was walking back and forth, appearing to survey the upper deck of the ship. Such costume changes gave the whole ship the feel of a small theater troupe in which the actor playing the prince's cousin also plays the apothecary, the friar, and Messenger No. 2.

The Navy knew early on that not just anyone could handle this kind of multitasking. By the early 2000s, the Office of Naval Research was commissioning studies on how to select and prepare a crew for the new ships. One of the academics brought in was Zachary Hambrick, a psychology professor at Michigan State University. Instead of trying to understand how well naval candidates might master fixed skills, Hambrick began to examine how they performed in what are known as fluid-task environments. "We wanted to identify characteristics of people who could flexibly shift," he told me. To that end, in 2010 he administered a test to sailors at Naval Station Great Lakes—and when I traveled to Michigan State to find out more about his work, he invited me to give it a try.

In Hambrick's Expertise Lab, I sat before a screen divided into quadrants: One showed me a fuel gauge that I had to monitor; another displayed a set of letters I had to memorize; another gave me a set of numbers to add together; and the final one presented me with a red button to push whenever a high-pitched tone sounded. All four tasks contributed equally to my total score, which appeared at the center of the screen. Because there really is no such thing as multitasking—just a rapid switching of attention—I began to feel overstrained, put upon, and finally irked by the impossible set of concurrent demands. Shouldn't someone be giving me a hand here? This, Hambrick explained, meant I was hitting the limits of working memory—basically, raw processing power—which is an important aspect of "fluid intelligence" and peaks in your early 20s. This is distinct from "crystallized intelligence"—the accumulated facts and know-how on your hard drive—which peaks in your 50s. In a setting where the possession of know-how is trumped by the ability to acquire it quickly, as in Hambrick's game, fluid intelligence is paramount. (For more on fluid and crystallized intelligence, see "Your Professional Decline Is Coming (Much) Sooner Than You Think," by Arthur C. Brooks, on page 66.)

When the sailors at Naval Station Great Lakes took the test, they were thrown a curveball that I was not: In the middle of the test, the scoring system suddenly changed, so that one quadrant now accounted for 75 percent of the score. Some sailors, Hambrick told me, were quick to spot the change and refocus their attention accordingly. They tended to test high in fluid intelligence. Others noticed the change but continued to devote equal attention to all four tasks. Their scores fell. This group, Hambrick found, was high in "conscientiousness"—a trait that's normally an overwhelming predictor of positive job performance. We like conscientious people because they can be trusted to show up early, double-check the math, fill the gap in the presentation, and return your car gassed up even though the tank was nowhere near empty to begin with. What struck Hambrick as counterintuitive and interesting was that conscientiousness here seemed to correlate with poor performance.

Sailors on the Navy's new littoral combat ships must be able to carry out multiple jobs; the operative concept is "minimal manning." (Peter Bohler)

Hambrick wasn't the only one to observe this correlation. While Jeffery LePine, an Arizona State management professor and former Air Force officer, was doing Navy-funded research on decision making in the late 1990s, he used a computer game a lot like the one Hambrick administered. The tasks were explicitly military (for instance, assessing the "threat level" of 75 aircraft based on speed, altitude, range, etc.) but the curveball was similar: Unbeknownst to the participants, the scoring rules changed partway through the game. When this happened, he noticed that players who scored high on conscientiousness did worse. Instead of adapting to the new rules, they kept doing what they were doing, only more intently, and this impeded their performance. They were the victims of their own dogged persistence. "I think of it as the person literally going down with a sinking ship," LePine told me.

And he discovered another correlation in his test: The people who did best tended to score high on "openness to new experience"—a personality trait that is normally not a major job-performance predictor and that, in certain contexts, roughly translates to "distractibility." To borrow the management expert Peter Drucker's formulation, people with this trait are less focused on doing things right, and more likely to wonder whether they're doing the right things.

High in fluid intelligence, low in experience, not terribly conscientious, open to potential distraction—this is not the classic profile of a winning job candidate. But what if it is the profile of the winning job candidate of the future? If that's the case, some important implications would arise.

One concerns "grit"—a mind-set, much vaunted these days in educational and professional circles, that allows people to commit tenaciously to doing one thing well. Angela Duckworth, a University of Pennsylvania psychology professor, has written powerfully about the value of grit—putting your head down, blocking out distractions, committing over a course of many years to a chosen path. Her writing traces an intellectual lineage that can also be found in Malcolm Gladwell's Outliers, which explains extraordinary success as a function of endless, dedicated practice—10,000 hours or more. These ideas are inherently appealing; they suggest that dedication can be more important than raw talent, that the dogged and conscientious will be rewarded in the end.

In the stable environments Duckworth and Gladwell draw from (chess, tennis, piano, higher education), a rigid adherence to routine can no doubt serve you well. But in situations with rapidly changing rules and roles, a small but growing body of evidence now suggests that it can leave you ill-equipped.

Paul Bartone, a retired Army colonel, seemed to find as much when he studied West Point students and graduates. Traditional measures such as SAT scores and high-school class rank "predicted leader performance in the stable, highly regulated environment of West Point" itself. But once cadets got into actual command environments, which tend to be fluid and full of surprises, a different picture emerged. "Psychological hardiness"—a construct that includes, among other things, a willingness to explore "multiple possible response alternatives," a tendency to "see all experience as interesting and meaningful," and a strong sense of self-confidence—was a better predictor of leadership ability in officers after three years in the field. Thus, Bartone and his co-authors wrote, "traditional predictors [of performance] appear not to hold in the fast-paced and unpredictable operational environment in which military officers are working today."

The world of work is full of such surprises. And as the rules change, so do ideas about what makes a good worker. "Fluid, learning-intensive environments are going to require different traits than classical business environments," I was told by Frida Polli, a co-founder of an AI-powered hiring platform called Pymetrics. "And they're going to be things like ability to learn quickly from mistakes, use of trial and error, and comfort with ambiguity."

"We're starting to see a big shift," says Guy Halfteck, a people-analytics expert. "Employers are looking less at what you know and more and more at your hidden potential" to learn new things. His advice to employers? Stop hiring people based on their work experience. Because in these environments, expertise can become an obstacle. That was the finding of a 2015 study carried out by the Yale researchers Matthew Fisher and Frank Keil, titled "The Curse of Expertise." The more we invest in building and embellishing a system of knowledge, they found, the more averse we become to unbuilding it.

Jeffery LePine has observed this phenomenon in another part of his life. For years, he devoted himself to understanding cars, and amassed a collection of Pontiacs that he maintained himself. But new developments—fuel injection and the like—convinced him that at times he needed expert help. When one of his cars developed a leaky engine, he called in a mechanic whose first attempt to fix the problem was to replace the rear oil seal. The leak persisted, so the mechanic replaced the engine and gave it a new oil seal. Still no luck, so he replaced the whole thing again. Finally, the mechanic read the instructions that came with the oil seal—something a novice would have done at the outset—and learned that newer engines required an extra step. By not doing it, he'd been puncturing the seals and causing new leaks himself.

The Yale study nicely summed up the dynamic at play here: All too often experts, like the mechanic in LePine's garage, fail to inspect their knowledge structure for signs of decay. "It just didn't occur to him," LePine said, "that he was repeating the same mistake over and over."

Yet the limitations of curious, fluidly intelligent groups of generalists quickly become apparent in the real world. The devaluation of expertise opens up ample room for different sorts of mistakes—and sometimes creates a kind of helplessness.

Aboard littoral combat ships, the crew lacks the expertise to carry out some important tasks, and instead has to rely on civilian help. A malfunctioning crane on board one LCS, for example, meant that the crew had to summon an expert to solve the problem, and then had to wait four days for him to arrive.

There have been other incidents. Because of a design flaw, the LCS engines started to corrode not long after the fleet's launch, but for a long time nobody on board noticed, which led to costly delays and repairs. When a congressional oversight committee found out about the problem in 2011, it called the ships' crews to task. Who was in charge of checking the engines? The answer was … nobody. The engine rooms were unmanned by design. Meanwhile, the modular "plug and fight" configuration was not panning out as hoped. Converting a ship from sub-hunter to minesweeper or minesweeper to surface combatant, it turned out, was a logistical nightmare. Variants of all three "mission packages" had to be stocked at far-flung ports; an extra detachment of 20-plus sailors had to stand ready to embark with each. More to the point, in order to enable quick mastery by generalists, the technologies on each had to be user-friendly—which they were not. So in 2016 the concept of interchangeability was scuttled for a "one ship, one mission" approach, in which the extra 20-plus sailors became permanent crew members.

On it went. The crew of one LCS failed to oil the main engine gear (forcing the ship to limp home from Singapore for a $23 million repair). The crew of another put a seal in the wrong hole, flooding its engine with seawater. "Who was responsible for the training?" the late Senator John McCain asked angrily at a hearing. "Wasn't someone?"

A chastened naval command quietly ordered all LCSs to stand down for several months in 2016, sent their engineering crews back to school for requalification, and bulked up its high-tech courseware, which lets LCS trainees practice tasks on a highly detailed virtual ship. ("I'm going to show you the stern tube-shaft seal assembly," a virtual officer announces in one training video, by way of greeting.) Onboard routines were updated to include more oversight and double-checking. The ship passed its sea trials, but not with flying colors. "As equipment breaks, [sailors] are required to fix it without any training," a Defense Department Test and Evaluation employee told Congress. "Those are not my words. Those are the words of the sailors who were doing the best they could to try to accomplish the missions we gave them in testing." The intentionally small crew size made the ship ill-suited to forward combat, because not enough people were on board to stand watch.

These results were, perhaps, predictable given the Navy's initial, full-throttle approach to minimal manning—and are an object lesson on the dangers of embracing any radical concept without thinking hard enough about the downsides. Even if minimal manning works for a given business or institution, the ramifications for society may not be entirely salubrious. Grit and 10,000 hours of training are appealing in part because they reinforce American self-conceptions that have been present since the country's founding, ideas about equality of opportunity, about the value of knowledge, about the importance of hard work. And while no one would suggest that effort itself is being devalued today—hard work is just as important in the workplace that's emerging as in the one that's receding—a world in which mental agility and raw cognitive speed eclipse hard-won expertise is a world of greater exclusion: of older workers, slower learners, and the less socially adept. "This sounds absurd," retired Vice Admiral Pete Daly (now head of the U.S. Naval Institute) told me, "but if you keep going down this road, you end up with one really expensive ship with just a few people on it who are geniuses … That's not a future we want to see, because you need a large enough crew to conduct multiple tasks in combat."

But it's a future we may need to see. As the cost of computing continues to fall and artificial intelligence usurps more and more human competencies, the collapse of old jobs into new ones seems preferable to their total disappearance. (Look at the unmanned helicopter the Giffords can accommodate, and it's distressingly easy to picture a sailorless ship. Already, the DOD worries about the vulnerability of an LCS to "swarm boats"—basically, dozens of explosive-laden speedboats, unmanned and computer-coordinated.)

And while it seems fair to say that the Navy pushed the LCS forward too hard and too heedlessly, calling its minimal-manning project a failure would be premature. The viability of the aircraft carrier was not obvious to military planners in the 1920s, but then, through an extended process of on-site trial and error, engineers added catapults and arresting wires, and reconfigured flight decks, all of which turned an interesting idea into reality. The LCS is likewise the scene of everyday trial, error, and adjustment.

When large vessels stop to dock, for example, they have to be tied up with ropes that are too heavy to throw. So sailors on board throw out smaller ropes that are attached to the big ones, which their colleagues on land can then pull over. On traditional Navy ships, this is done from a ship's top deck—a sailor tosses the small rope over the side, and the rest is easy. This is how it's taught at the Navy's equivalent of boot camp, on a mock wooden ship near Lake Michigan. But on the LCS the ropes reside in the forward compartment, where getting a good side-arm throw out the porthole is next to impossible. One early solution—sending a boatswain's mate up top to make the toss—proved both awkward and complicated. But this is where having a crew attracted to novel problems is useful. At some point, a sailor had the idea of not throwing but launching the line through the porthole. This unknown soul started fiddling with materials at hand, and lo, the "slingshot" came into being: a rubber bungee cord knotted into an X around four carabiners that clip to the inside of a porthole and, when pulled back and then released, have enough strength to send a bundle of rope to a sailor waiting for it on land. A triumph of found materials, it's an indication, however small, of what a group of open-minded generalists can achieve: namely, inventing new patterns of working that turn a lack of expertise into an asset.

Peter Bohler

What does all this mean for those of us in the workforce, and those of us planning to enter it? It would be wrong to say that the 10,000-hours-of-deliberate-practice idea doesn't hold up at all. In some situations, it clearly does. Sports, musicianship, teaching—these are fields where the rules don't change much over time. In tennis, it pays to put in the hours mastering your serve, because you know you'll always be serving to a box 21 feet long and 13.5 feet wide, over a net strung 3.5 feet high. In medicine and law, the rules might change—but specialization will probably remain key. A spinal surgery will not be performed by a brilliant dermatologist. A criminal-defense team will not be headed by a tax attorney. And in tech, the demand for specialized skills will continue to reward expertise handsomely.

But in many fields, the path to success isn't so clear. The rules keep changing, which means that highly focused practice has a much lower return. Zachary Hambrick and his co-authors showed as much in a 2014 meta-analysis. In uncertain environments, Hambrick told me, "specialization is no longer the coin of the realm."

So where does this leave us?

It leaves us with lifelong learning, an unavoidably familiar phrase that, before I began this story, sounded tame to me—a motivational reminder that it's never too late to learn Spanish or enroll in nighttime pottery classes. But when Guillermo Miranda, IBM's former chief learning officer, used the term in describing to me how employees take advantage of the company's automated career counselor, Myca, it started to sound like something new. "You can talk to the chatbot," Miranda said, "and say, 'Hey, Myca, how do I get a promotion?' "

Myca isn't programmed to push any fixed career track. It isn't dumb enough to try to predict the future—much less plan for it. "There is no master plan," Miranda said. Myca just crunches data, notices correlations, and offers suggestions: Take a course on blockchain. Learn quantum computing. "Look, Jennifer!" it might say. "Three people like you just got promoted because they got these badges."

Even as I reported this story, I found myself the target of career suggestions. "You need to be a video guy, an audio guy!" the Silicon Valley talent adviser John Sullivan told me, alluding to the demise of print media. I found it fascinating and slightly odd that Sullivan would so readily imagine that I would abandon writing—my life's pursuit since high school—for a new line of work. More than that, though, I found the prospect of starting over just plain exhausting. Building a professional identity takes a lot of resources—money, time, energy. After it's built, we expect to reap gains from our investment, and—let's be honest—even do a bit of coasting. Are we equipped to continually return to apprentice mode? Will this burn us out? And will the collective work that results be as good as what came before?

A junior officer steers the ship back into port; on the Giffords, even a routine transit back to base is a chance to learn something new. (Peter Bohler)

Those are questions for the long haul. In 20 years, we'll know a lot more about the costs and benefits of minimal manning and lifelong learning. But nobody on the Giffords was pondering that after the crew finished its unloading job. They had to get back to base. So 26 crew members crammed into a briefing room, where they talked tides, collision avoidance, and sea lanes, which would be crawling with pleasure craft this time of day. "If action becomes necessary," said the captain, Shawn Cowan, "take action early."

The ship's bridge was quiet on the way home. As we sailed, I thought back to an encounter I'd had earlier in the day with two engineer's mates. I'd found them in a quiet corner of the cargo bay, testing water samples pulled from the ship's engines for signs of corrosion. We struck up a conversation, and they explained to me that their responsibilities also included maintaining the ship's gas turbines, diesel engines, water jets, and various pumps—for oil, fuel, drinking water. I told them that sounded like a lot. They agreed, but then one of them added that doing so many things was just the way things go in "this LCS business." Not only that, he added, but he was learning so much that he might soon earn a promotion that would put him up on the bridge, in charge of the whole propulsion system.

Everybody I met on the Giffords seemed to share that mentality. They regarded every minute on board—even during a routine transit back to port in San Diego Harbor—as a chance to learn something new. Which is why, near the end of our trip, as we approached the Coronado Bridge, Captain Cowan gave the helm to a junior officer and asked her to steer us under the bridge and into port. The officer looked intently at the nozzles of the ship's four water jets, took in the sight of the approaching bridge, and said, "Very well, Captain."

Then she adjusted her course.


This article appears in the July 2019 print edition with the headline "The End of Expertise."


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Friday, July 5, 2019

Transcript: The G20 on Shaky Ground – A Project Syndicate podcast [feedly]


An 'insider', and brilliant, if you miss Summers' analyses, you will miss something important. In this case: 1) reports of US decline may be premature, and 2) Technology is the driver, everything else reflection, but its still not possible to predict its destination. A struggle between imagination and fear will decide it

The G20 on Shaky Ground – A Project Syndicate podcast
http://larrysummers.com/2019/07/05/the-g20-on-shaky-ground-a-project-syndicate-podcast/

Elmira Bayrasli: Last week, Japan hosted the G20 summit, which convenes leaders of the world's largest economies. While the G20 has been around since 1999, the first summit with world leaders took place just over a decade ago, in 2008, in the middle of the global financial crisis. Fair and Free Trade has been a guiding principle of the G20 since its outset. For the past several years, however, protectionism has re-emerged in many G20 economies, and is currently fueling a highly-damaging trade war between the world's two largest economies: China and the United States. What role does the G20 have to play in the age of Donald Trump, Populism, and powerful digital technologies? Larry Summers, one of the G20's architects, joins us to discuss. He served as US Secretary of the Treasury under President Bill Clinton, and as the Director of the National Economic Council under President Barack Obama.

Elmira Bayrasli: Secretary Summers, you and former Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin conceived of the G20 back in the late 1990s. And at that point, the United States had emerged from the Cold War as the world's sole superpower, and at that time it seemed that the US economy was invincible. Why was it important to bring in additional players? Couldn't the United States simply have set the agenda for others to follow, as others had advocated at that time?

Larry Summers: We felt that many of the greatest economic challenges at that time involved emerging markets. We had just been through the Asian Financial Crisis, that, while it was a much less globally-traumatic event than the events of 2008, was at that time the most serious global financial crisis since the Second World War.

Larry Summers: Countries that needed assistance, and countries like China, that were not in the traditional G7 had been crucial in providing assistance. We thought it was crucial that if the international financial institutions were going to maintain their credibility, they couldn't only be steered by six Western countries, and Japan. So it was important to have a broader grouping. That was the first reason we did it.

Larry Summers: The second was, without being able to see the details of the future with clarity, we could see enough to understand that the center of economic gravity was moving to the East, and to the South. We could see enough to understand that over the next generation, more economic power was going to be concentrated outside the G7 than inside the G7, and that if that was going to be managed successfully, it was important that there be more stakeholders in the system.

Larry Summers: And I think we were aware at the time that the interaction, even if there were not concrete outcomes, would produce benefits in terms of greater mutual understanding. The interactions would, from time to time, contribute to resolving specific international issues. And in the same way in which it's usually a good idea to meet your cardiologist before you have a heart attack, it would be important for a grouping of this kind to be formed so that it was ready and functioning when the next global crisis arose.

Larry Summers: And in the event, that was about a decade later, with the great Financial Crisis, when the G20 countries were formed up, formed a communique that was really central to the resolution of that crisis, with its emphasis on collaborative efforts at stimulus, to get the global economy moving upwards rather than downwards, at strong fortification of trade finance, and the international financial institutions, so that emerging markets were not starved for capital.

Larry Summers: With the common G20 commitment to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies, which is probably the most constructive thing globally that has happened on global climate change over the somewhat disappointing last decade, and at that same London summit with the commitments to substantially fortify the resources available to the IMF, which added confidence and reduced the risk of panic.

Larry Summers: If there hadn't been a grouping like that, like the G20, and if it hadn't been previously established and developed some history of working together, I think forging those agreements would have not been possible.

Elmira Bayrasli: I want to pick up on the crisis in 2008, and as you just mentioned, the G20 was very critical in resolving that financial crisis. And you talked a little bit about the particular points that they came together on.

Elmira Bayrasli: Since you're somebody who is so close to this, could you just walk through a couple of the pivotal events and moments in that particular time?

Larry Summers: I think Gordon Brown and Barack Obama were the two central figures shaping the agenda of that summit, and I think they had a common philosophy, that stopping the bank panic that was causing an implosion of the world economy the first year of negative growth in 50, that it was important in addition to staunching the bleeding, to put in place measures that would accelerate recovery, and to put in place measures that would reduce the risk of subsequent crisis.

Larry Summers: There was a common agreement that countries would pursue active fiscal stimulus, to enable the demand increase and the world economy to grow more rapidly. There was an important institutional innovation with the Financial Stability Board, that has done a great deal to establish higher common capital and regulatory standards for global finance.

Larry Summers: It looked on almost any important economic statistic like the Great Depression. But it was more important than anything else that the path after the first six months be very different than the path of the Great Depression. Yes, 10% unemployment in the United States was terrible, but it was nothing like the 25% unemployment that we had during the Great Depression. Yes, the magnitude of the interferences with trade were a serious issue, but they were nothing like the declines of 50% or more in the volume of trade globally that we saw in the Great Depression.

Larry Summers: Yes, there were big political shocks from a sense on the part of the electorates in many countries that elites had failed, but nothing, at least as yet, on the scale of Hitler, who came into power at that time.

Larry Summers: So, I think there was a clearly-posed problem, but a sense that collective actions would be both substantively better, and very importantly, psychologically better, and that was the mood of the time, and while battlefield medicine is never perfect, and there's much one could look back on and ask about ways in which it could have been done differently, I think historians will look back and give a sigh of relief for the existence of the G20, and what it was able to do.

Elmira Bayrasli: Collective action was the mood at the time about a decade ago, and when I take a look at what's happening today, there's a lot more nationalism, a lot more talk about protectionism. Do you think that the G20 could achieve that level of cooperation today?

Larry Summers: I think it would be much harder, for two reasons. The first is that, even though the American position is quite different than it was in the 1990s, people are talking much less about a unipolar world.

Larry Summers: The United States, for reasons of location, for reasons of scale, for reasons of technological prowess, for reasons of intellectual and cultural influence and leadership around the world, exerts a greatly disproportionate role in the international cooperation process.

Larry Summers: And under President Trump, the US concept of a "community of nations" working together to pursue each their own interests, but cooperatively, has been put to rest in favor of an alternative construct, in which the world economy as seen as a near-zero sum game, where nations simply struggle for advantage against one another, and one's gain is another's loss. And when the leading and most influential and agenda-setting nation is operating with that kind of philosophy, sustaining global cooperation becomes much, much more difficult.

Larry Summers: I think the second factor, which is part of what is going on in the United States, but that goes way beyond the United States, is that there is a sense of disillusionment with elite leaders. And some of this, perhaps much of this, has to do with rising inequality, and a sense that working people have been left behind.

Larry Summers: Some of it goes with a broader suspicion that regular people, people who, as Bill Clinton used to say, "work hard and play by the rules", that those people have lost confidence in elite experts in every sphere. And you see that in things, from the anti-vaccine movement in the United States, to climate denialism, to resistance, to international agreements of every kind.

Larry Summers: And I think that disillusionment with elite leadership at a distance, because of a suspicion that it's pursuing its own agenda rather than the people's agenda, has, I think, also made the global cooperative process more difficult than it had been previously. And some of that is related to the fact that elites turned out to be wrong about things. They told people there wasn't going to be any dislocation or disruption from trade, that didn't turn out to be true.

Larry Summers: They told people that a burgeoning financial sector that was free from the shackles of regulation would drive a more stable and efficient global economy, and that didn't turn out to play out as was predicted.

Larry Summers: So, I think it's American abdication, and what one might summarize as "disaffection with Davos", and the "Davos mentality", I think are two factors that make the cooperation process right now in these few years much more difficult.

Elmira Bayrasli: Secretary Summers, I want to turn to one of the major issues that loomed over this year's summit, and that is the resurgence of protectionism. At last year's meeting in Buenos Aires, the traditional pledge to fight protectionism was removed, at the Trump administration's assistance, from that final communique, and it was the first time that that happened.

Elmira Bayrasli: Since then, the trade war between the US and China has escalated into a serious threat to global growth and stability. Is there anything other member countries can do to counteract this trend?

Larry Summers: I'm embarrassed, as an economist, and as an American, by some of the things that our government has said and done about international trade. The focus on bilateral deficits and surpluses is not the stuff that passes in introductory economics courses.

Larry Summers: The unilateral pursuit of trade objectives, vis-a-vis all other countries, rather than the forming of alliances and coalitions to confront the most egregious trade sinners, violates the most elementary cannons of diplomacy, that you try to isolate your adversary, rather than to isolate yourself.

Larry Summers: I do think that there are profound issues with respect to establishing rules of the road between the United States and China. China has the habits of mind that go with being an adolescent, after it has grown up. And with the greater strength and capacity that comes with being a grown-up, mature economy, comes with a greater obligation and a greater expectation that they will play by the rules that everybody else is playing.

Larry Summers: And inevitably, comes with a greater degree of competitive concern about their success, from whatever source it comes, than existed when they were weak. And I don't think China has fully recognized and internalized that, and I think that's why there's a great deal that could be done collectively, through economic diplomacy and pressure.

Larry Summers: I think the unfortunate thing is that the Trump administration has squandered any opportunity to bring collective pressure on China by declaring many trade wars on so many other nations, that the Trump administration has acted with sweeping rhetoric and claims, in ways that could legitimately fuel Chinese paranoia, that the American objective was not a collectively-managed, fair, flat-street global economy, but one in which the effort was to suppress and hold down China.

Larry Summers: And I think the Trump administration's erratic behavior has made it more difficult to reach agreements, because of a sense that, if reached, they won't necessarily be adhered to or regarded for any reasonable horizon as being sufficient.

Larry Summers: And so, I think the role for an institution like the G20, or more importantly, for other countries, is to try to prevail on both sides to work through this, with a principle of strategic reassurance, in which China provides assurance to the United States that its goal is not to be a threat that undermines the American economy, or calls for the removal of the American presence in the Pacific, and the United States makes clear its expectation of fair treatment in economic competition with what is now a fully-matured trading partner, but also makes clear that it's not its goal to hold China down.

Speaker 5: And in Trump-bashing, Fed Chair Jay Powell, again, the President reportedly telling Republicans that the Central Bank leader has, "No feel for the economy."

Elmira Bayrasli: US rhetoric and attacks have not just been directed at China. We have seen Trump attack the US Federal Reserve quite a bit. Do you worry that this could affect the US Fed's policy response to fears of a global slowdown?

Larry Summers: I think there are multiple risks in what the President is doing with his overt scornful public pressure towards the Fed.

Larry Summers: One risk is that it's undermining the credibility and independence of important American institutions. Just as the credibility of the nation's laws depends on the credibility of the integrity of the courts that are charged with enforcing and adjudicating those laws, the credibility of a nation's money depends on the independence of the central bank that is printing and regulating that money, and less credible US money means less privilege for the dollar, which weakens the American economic position, means higher interest rates for mortgage holders, higher interest rates for consumer borrowers, higher interest rates for businesses that compete on global markets. Means more risk of currency competition, with respect to who's the reserve currency, which tends to lead to economic instability. I think that's the first risk.

Larry Summers: I think the second risk is that the Fed will listen, and that it will, at some point under this administration, or in the future, will pursue unsound short-termist policies in the way that very famously took place during President Nixon's administration, and in advance of his re-election, and that those policies will create a dangerous inflation, either in product prices, or in financial markets, which then will require substantial payment to undo.

Larry Summers: And I think the third risk, which is probably more pressing in the near-term, is that the Fed, when it is on the fence, with respect to easing policy will, out of a desire to project its independence, avoid easing policies that are in fact necessary.

Elmira Bayrasli: Staying on this topic, it strikes me that digital currencies, Bitcoin, have moved from the fringes of our financial system into the mainstream.

Elmira Bayrasli: Just last month, Facebook announced that it will launch its own global digital currency, Libra, perhaps even as soon as next year. How should policy makers and regulators respond to these new forms of private money?

Larry Summers: There are some who fear that some private money standard will somehow disrupt or dislocate the ability of governments to carry on monetary policy. I don't think that's a plausible concern for many, many years to come. Indeed, the Facebook currency, as it's described and promoted, derives its strength and its unique credence, as Facebook sees it, from being tied to existing central bank currencies.

Larry Summers: So, in a sense, the fixed exchange rate between Facebook's currency and other currencies, promotes the leverage and influence of those who issue other currencies, because Facebook money, then, is tied and influenced by the decisions they make. So, I don't fear for the capacity to carry on monetary policy.

Larry Summers: I do have concerns that technology companies have shown themselves to not always be in full control of their technologies, and all the ways in which they ramify, ramify in permitting political influence, ramify in influencing the psychologies of children, ramify in affecting privacy.

Larry Summers: And money is a very, very sensitive thing. And so, assuring financial stability and integrity of accounts in which consumers store their money, assuring that there's no erosion of money-laundering, capital flight, tax evasion, potentials, fair-lending rules, and the full panoply of protections that surround our financial system, we can't permit a system with respect to large sums of money, based on asking forgiveness rather than permission.

Larry Summers: That may well have been a reasonable initial strategy for allowing the Internet to get started, and I think there's quite a strong case to be made that, if there had been an excessive effort to regulate the Internet at the beginning, it would have choked off more good than whatever bad would have been prevented.

Larry Summers: But now that we're talking about institutions that, for the first time in human history, have billions of people formed into networks, and we're talking about large amounts of financial exchange, I think we cannot have an approach based on forgiveness rather than permission, or even an approach based on punishment for bad outcomes as a deterrent to permitting bad outcomes.

Larry Summers: I think we need strong systems of Ex-ante monitoring and regulation, and I've been gratified that in many of the things they have said, the originators of this currency have been mindful of various scandals and scams, even murders, thefts, and all of that, that have been associated with first-generation crypto.

Larry Summers: This needs to be the opposite of, "Move fast and break things". This needs to be a case of, "Move prudently and protect essential principles, rights, and interests."

Elmira Bayrasli: So, if we're going to move prudently, does it make sense to bring in companies like Facebook, Google, or even Chinese tech giant Alibaba, to have a formal seat at the G20 table?

Larry Summers: Absolutely not. Absolutely not. I think it's a profoundly dangerous idea. I think a central issue, both for the legitimacy, and for the propriety, wisdom, of the economic approaches that come out of global fora, is that there's excessive representation of wealthy interests that are concentrated, rather than middle-class consumer interests that are diffused across middle-class people, billions of middle-class people, all over the world.

Larry Summers: I am much more concerned with giving more representation to those anguished about money laundering, or those concerned about employment disruption, or those concerned about mobility of capital around the world being used to facilitate tax evasion. They are all much more in need of representation, and possibly, and certainly, access to the top table, than are global corporations.

Larry Summers: I think the idea of giving global corporations seats on the top political bodies that are in charge of deciding whether they should be subject to anti-trust regulation, or increased penalties for tax evasion, or alternative tax regimes that discourage tax evasion, is dystopian.

Elmira Bayrasli: Secretary Summers, we end each episode with this question: What gives you hope?
Larry Summers: What gives me hope, is two things: First, the history of the United States, is a history of self-denying prophesies of doom. Whether it was Jimmy Carter's malaise, the suggestion at the end of the 1980s that the United States was about to be surpassed by Japan, the Sputnik panic of the 1960s, the history of the United States is a history of prophesies of huge problems, that then call for dynamic response.

Larry Summers: And so, in all of the anxiety about the many consequences, which I regret as much as anyone, of the Trump administration, I see a pattern of resilience and response repeating itself, and that prospect gives me hope.

Larry Summers: The other thing that gives me hope is, looking at the events outside the news, that are driven by technology, and what it enables. Most of what happens in the world is driven by broader trends with technology and human imagination as an impetus. Technology's a large part of it, but if you think about examples like the easy acceptance of a gay, married Presidential candidate in the United States with his being gay being very much a tertiary issue with respect to his candidacy, only a decade after it was unacceptable for a President of the United States to endorse gay marriage as a conceivable option, there's enormous progress through power of human thought, and we see it year after year, even in moments when there's much in politics that is less than uplifting.

Elmira Bayrasli: Secretary Summers, thank you so much.

Larry Summers: Thank you. It's been a pleasure to be with the Project Syndicate podcast.

Elmira Bayrasli: That was Larry Summers. He is the Charles W. Eliot University Professor, and President Emeritus at Harvard University. He served as Secretary of the Treasury for President Clinton, and as the Director of the National Economic Council for President Obama.

Elmira Bayrasli: And that's it for this episode. Thanks for listening. We'd love to hear what you think about it. Please rate and review our podcast. Better yet, subscribe on your favorite listening app.

Elmira Bayrasli: Until next time, I'm Elmira Bayrasli.

Elmira Bayrasli: Opinion Has It is produced and edited by Kasia Broussalian. Special thanks to Project Syndicate editors Jonathan Stein, Stuart Whatley, and Rachel Danna.


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