Monday, February 19, 2018

Fwd: Update


---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "AFT-West Virginia via ActionNetwork.org" <info@aftwv.org>
Date: Feb 19, 2018 4:02 PM
Subject: Update
To: <jcase4218@gmail.com>
Cc:

John,

Despite our best efforts to negotiate in good faith with leadership in the House and Senate and the Governor's office, we have not been able to make the progress needed to avoid further action. Therefore, AFT-West Virginia, WVEA and WVSSPA have called for statewide action on Thursday, February 22 and Friday, February 23.

Latest developments:

·       After today's meeting between State Superintendent Steve Paine and all county superintendents, the decision to close school on Thursday and Friday remains in the hands of each county superintendent.

·       Many locals are coordinating with area churches and community centers to set up child care centers to assist working parents.

·       Local presidents are scheduling building rep. or general membership meetings before the walk out dates to ensure clear communication of updates.

·       Many locals have already started coordinating with local food pantries to assist children who rely on school meals.

On the days of the walkout, please coordinate people to come to the Capitol, hold informational pickets locally and volunteer for community child care and food distribution. Even if schools are closed, it will be important to have continued informational pickets in our home communities.

Please check email, text and AFT-WV's social media pages frequently during this time, as developments can unfold rapidly.




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Recovery Radio:Recovery Rado: Suicide is Not ann Answer

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Blog: Recovery Radio
Post: Recovery Rado: Suicide is Not ann Answer
Link: http://recovery.enlightenradio.org/2018/02/recovery-rado-suicide-is-not-ann-answer.html

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Notes on the Russia-Trump thing -- it's about OIL.



John Case, Socialist Economics.

Special Counsel Robert Mueller's indictment charges a Russian enterprise,  The Internet Research Agency, and 13 of its employees, with unlawful interference in the US 2016 presidential election. Beginning in mid-2014, the indictment says the agency launched a disinformation campaign , mainly through Facebook, designed to smear and divide Hillary Clinton's presidential candidacy, and elect Trump.

At its peak in the 6 months prior to the election, the indicted Russian agency spent $1.2 million per month on its efforts. . According the celebrated, but not entirely error free FiveThirtyEight statistical blog of Nate Silver, "The Clinton campaign and Clinton-backing super PACs spent a combined $1.2 billion over the course of the campaign. The Trump campaign and pro-Trump super PACs spent $617 million overall. "

The not insignificant, but still relatively small Russian spending, does not really alter the fact that Clinton's losing campaign outspent the combined Russia and Trump campaigns by almost double. Statistically its very hard to blame Russia for Clinton's loss. That is partly due to the difficulty of measuring the impact of non-discrete events like Facebook Bot activity. The Comey last minute "email sever smear", which exposed nothing but the right wing influence of parts of the FBI, shows a stronger, but still not decisive, statistical impact than Russian interference. Other statistical factors of note, although none are by themselves decisive, include a lower African American turnout, a lax campaign effort in key midwestern states like Michigan and Wisconsin, and the Jill Stein vote.  Further, both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton had very, very low favorability ratings: Trump - 38, Clinton - 43. In terms of headcount, i.e., paid staffers, Clinton had 4200, Trump - 880, Russia -- 'hundreds'.

The bottom line is: there is no high-confidence statistical answer to the question, did Russia give the election to Trump? Nor is there a high-confidence statistical answer to the overall question of why Clinton lost the election. The electoral college imbalance between the rural and urban franchise obviously was important, since Clinton DID win the popular vote. But the electoral college is a fixed entity, not subject to significant influence or modification in the 2016 election.

The other question the statistics do not satisfactorily, answer is: Why is Russia aligning with Trump?  I am not going to delve in to personal or character analysis of Putin, but instead follow Washington's advisory that nations, regardless of the personal inclinations of their leaders, will tend to follow NATIONAL interests, not 'friends'. In that framework, both recent history and economics suggest powerful motivations.

Much of the Trump campaign war chest is disguised by the treasonous curtain on billionaires provided by Citizens United. However the largest donors super PACs are dominated by recognizable hedge fund, energy, real estate. military and right wing entertainment interests (like Murdoch (Fox) and Disney.). The strongest connection to Russia is energy -- in particular natural gas and crude oil production and refining. These are by far Russia's largest exports and its greatest source of cash. Obama and Secretary Clinton's assistance in overthrowing Ukraine's corrupt, but nonetheless elected, government with former fascist elements sparked Russia's antagonism to an intense level. It was not an isolated incident. US policy toward Russia since the collapse of the USSR has persisted many Cold War efforts to destabilize, dismember and undermine the former Warsaw Pact nations, very often using ultra-right cliques and military-compromised 'friends' as proxies.

Not accidentally, the major natural gas and crude oil pipelines from Russia to Europe flowed through Ukraine, where, led by anti-Russian forces, and backed by NATO, it could put Russia's economy at serious risk. The political economy of Russia's largest exporters make the geopolitics of Putin and Exxon Oil nearly, though hardly completely, convergent. According to studies by Chevron, typical crude oil development projects require hundreds of millions of dollars and can take 50 years to deliver a commensurate return. The ten current biggest onshore projects—out of a total of 126 such developments worldwide—are expected to consume $83.1 billion of investment to bring them to production, Oilfield Technology reports, quoting figures by GlobalData. In terms of single project development investment, the Kuyumbinskoye conventional oil development in Russia is the leader, with $12.8 billion expected to be spent over the field's lifetime. Offshore investments are even bigger -- reaching into the billions.

These are sticky investments -- very costly to withdraw from once engaged. Consider the Shell disaster in the gulf: if the penalties are too steep, Shell cuts production and the price of gas takes a steep bite out of US consumers. If the winds of "climate change" reforms blow too strong, those $100 million dollar investment failures become existential threats to the corporation.

Yet here we are. Thesis: Driven primarily by energy companies, their billionaire owners and allies, an all out and well-funded assault (ALEC, Kochs poltroons of billionaire scum) on democracy has been organized on many fronts. Trump is the carnival barker for the assault, not even a Bavarian corporal, portraying it as a reality TV show. Trump's endless gaslighting and misdirections are designed solely to divide the public by any means necessary, especially race, and neutralize united democratic resistance to unchallengeable rule by 'Exxon and Friends'. The scale of inequalities in the US makes this ghastly effort not so difficult. Everyone has grievances, and the wrong enemies are conjured up for every group.

The significance of Russian convergence with Exxon has an additional dimension and lesson. State control, or outright nationalization, of energy interests does NOT guarantee against a comparable anti-democratic capture of the machinery of government and politics by a single, or very narrow, group of resource based interests. The curse of natural resources has ruined progress and democracy for most of the states and nations so 'blessed'. West Virginia is a perfect example. Public dependence on a primary or single resource can also easily result in whatever clique has the most guns or money seizing all the levers of power. 

There is no remedy to this crisis that does not include mandating that too big to fail companies can no longer be run on exclusively profit-maximization incentives. Structural changes in corporate governance reflecting vital public and employee interests in these enterprises MUST be the consequence of any democratic renewal,, even if instituting them will require temporary public takeover of enough to enforce compliance. Failure to reform  these giant corporate prerogatives will only ensure repeated fascist assaults. Remember -- to the biggest corporations escaping democratic constraints and their 'public obligations' is existential -- non-negotiable. Just as the defeat of their prerogatives is existential for the people, and progress. 

Renewal and must also include the complete defeat, indeed repression and re-education, of fascist, authoritarian trends which have seized the US government. There is no time to waste. These forces are steadily consolidating power. The mid-terms in 2018 may be the last opportunity to stop that consolidation. Taking back one house of Congress can derail the Trump train. Wait too long, and there might not be another election. In the latter instance, the ultimate outcomes will be decided by non-civil means..








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John Case
Harpers Ferry, WV

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When the impartial spectator is missing [feedly]

When the impartial spectator is missing
http://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com/stumbling_and_mumbling/2018/02/when-the-impartial-spectator-is-missing.html

Is good behaviour more fragile than generally supposed? For me, this is the question posed by the unpleasant controversy sparked by Mary Beard's tweet:

I do wonder how hard it must be to sustain "civilised" values in a disaster zone. 

One interpretation of this seems to me plain wrong – that it is an attempt to justify the wrongdoing at Oxfam.

Another interpretation is that there's an undertow of racism here. Even in quote marks, that word "civilized" echoes imperialist talk of white men "going native" – of "white aid workers as Mr Kurtz figures caving in the strain of 'The horror, the horror'" in Priyamvada Gopal's words.

But I wonder, might there be another reading of that tweet? We could read it as meaning that decent behaviour – civilized behaviour if you must – is not hardwired into us, and that many of us have darker tendencies

One reason for this, as I said recently, lies in a mix of ego-depletion and self-licensing. We cannot maintain full self-control for long under stress: we have to let off steam. And a belief that one is a good person doing good gives one a self-licence to behave badly. If you've just saved a few lives, you can convince yourself that it's OK to see a young prostitute, just as colonialists justified greed and brutality to themselves in the belief they were bringing Christianity to ignorant people, for example. Self-serving biases are powerful things.

But there's something else.

It lies in Adam Smith's idea of the impartial spectator. What keeps us behaving well is the suspicion that there is someone watching us. When we play outside as children, we might think we are only with other kids. But often we're watched by family friends or neighbours, so our parents learn of our misbehaviour. That keeps us honest. As D.D. Raphael writes in his exposition of Smith:

The approval and disapproval of oneself that we call conscience is an effect of judgments made by spectators. Each of us judges others as a spectator. Each of us finds spectators judging him. We then come to judge our own conduct by imagining whether an impartial spectator would approve or disapprove of it (The Impartial Spectator p 34-5)

When this impartial spectator is fully internalized it becomes God or conscience. But it isn't always so internalized. When it isn't, it is the fear of actual real spectators that keeps us well-behaved. There's always the danger that our spouses or bosses will hear of our misdeeds.

When we go overseas, however, we leave the most influential spectators behind, which lessens the constraint upon us. The only observers we have are foreigners who are, at best, less likely to report us to our employers or partners*.

The result of this is that there is a massive tradition of white men behaving badly outside their own countries, from imperialist brutalities to war crimes. We see faint echoes of this today. Men who go on business trips often behave worse than at home; West Brom footballers are more likely to steal cabs in Barcelona than Birmingham; there's a reason why stag parties go to Amsterdam or Prague rather than the fiancee's house; and what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. As Paul says, "rampant power to abuse was part of the 'expat' tradition, even folklore, alongside its hard-drinking culture."** Heart of Darknessand Lord of the Flies both speak to this tradition.

In other words, what we call "civilization" is not some property of individuals. It is, instead, emergent; it arises from social pressures upon us and might evaporate when those pressures are absent, depending upon how much the impartial spectator is internalized.

Which brings me to a paradox. Although Professor Beard's tweet has been interpreted as having an undertow of racism (perhaps rightly if inadvertently) it might also bear a very different interpretation - that white men are not as "civilized" as they pretend. And there's a lot of history to support such a view.

* There is, of course, often a baser motive for discounting their opinion, which is that the opinion of people who aren't like us counts for less – which is one reason why we should be so wary of "othering" other people.

** It shouldn't need saying, but I fear it does: I'm not claiming any moral equivalence between these examples but merely suggesting that a similar mechanism is at work.



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Sunday, February 18, 2018

A Rising Tide of Buyer's Remorse Even in the Red States? [feedly]

A Rising Tide of Buyer's Remorse Even in the Red States?
https://aflcio.org/2018/2/15/rising-tide-buyers-remorse-even-red-states

A Rising Tide of Buyer's Remorse Even in the Red States?

Donald Trump carried all but two of Kentucky's 120 counties, and he collected a whopping 62.5% of the vote.

Kentucky is among only a dozen states where the president's popularity is 50% or higher. He's at 51 in the Red State Bluegrass State.

Nationwide, Trump received votes from 43% of union households, according to a poll by the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research. The survey didn't break down the results state by state. The president probably did as well or better among Kentucky union households.

Anyway, go ahead and call it whistling past the graveyard. But the 51% number suggests that buyer's remorse is creeping up in the border state I've called home for all my 68 years.

I've packed a union card for about two dozen years. Most of us in organized labor voted for Hillary Clinton, the AFL-CIO-endorsed Democrat. But I'm hearing about rumblings of regret in union ranks.

We said Trump was—and still is—a fraud and a con man. He ran on a standard Wall Street Republican platform with planks supporting:

  • "Right to work" (On the campaign trail, Trump said he preferred right to work states to non-right to work states.)
  • Repeal of the prevailing wage on federal construction projects.
  • Deep cuts in Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.
  • Sharp rollbacks in federal regulations that safeguard worker safety and health on the job, protect consumers and shield the environment from polluters.
  • Hefty tax breaks for corporations and rich people and tax crumbs for the rest of us.

The Trump-Republican Robin-in-reverse tax bill came up at this month's meeting of the Paducah-based Western Kentucky AFL-CIO Area Council, where I'm recording secretary.  

"We've always preached that what's good for the union is good for everybody, and it has been historically," said delegate Jimmy Evans, Electrical Workers (IBEW) Local 816 business manager.

He cited as proof the tax legislation, which AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka called in a statement "nothing but an attack on America's workers." He added, "We will pay more, corporations and billionaires will pay less. It's a job killer. It gives billions of tax giveaways to big corporations that outsource jobs and profits."

The devil is always in the details. Under the tax bill, corporations can deduct payments to union-busting lawyers, but union members can't deduct their union dues, according to the United Steelworkers (USW).

"Previously, employees could potentially write off work-related expenses that added up to more than 2% of their gross income, and for which an employer didn't reimburse them," explained CNBC's Annie Nova. 

Nova also wrote that the axing of "miscellaneous itemized deductions" for a lot of taxpayers might not sound like a big deal, but she cautioned that their disappearance "will leave a hole in many workers' pockets, experts say."

The end of those deductions "was a shot across the bow of union members," Evans said. "But it also affects a lot of nonunion members that work construction, just like it does our construction members."

Nova also said workers can no longer deduct "work-related legal fees...medical examinations required by an employer, union dues and licenses."

She quoted Seth Harris, a deputy labor secretary under President Barack Obama: "The really big story of the tax bill is that it favors capital over labor. It's heavily skewed to benefit people who get money without working, as opposed to those who labor for a living."

Harris also told her that many workers who itemize have a lot of different expenses—including mortgages—that would still make itemizing worth their while. He added that deductions for corporations are still abundant.

In addition, Nova quoted David Kamin, a law professor at New York University who was an economic policy adviser in the Obama administration: "While people can say there's a doubling of the standard deduction, those who have significant unreimbursed business expenses will not do as well."

She also interviewed Martin Davidoff, a New Jersey CPA and tax attorney who said it's unfair that companies can still deduct the "so-called cost of doing business."  

"Take a look at McDonald's," he told Nova. "They spend $50 million on a Superbowl ad, and they get to deduct it."

Tax attorney Paul Drizner said that under the tax bill, many teachers will be forced to choose between spending less on their classrooms or taking home less from their salaries. (Teachers can still can claim a $250 above-the-line deduction on unreimbursed workplace expenses if they itemize or not, according to Nova). "Teachers shouldn't be paying out of their own pocket to put their lessons together," said Drizner in the story. 

Evans said it's not just the tax bill that has union members rethinking the ballots they cast for Trump and other Republicans. "Now they're wanting to get back on board and be on our side again. They see that those things we fought for is what helped them."

I carry AFT and National Education Association/Kentucky Education Association retiree cards. More than a few community college and public-school teachers not only voted for Trump in 2016, they also cast ballots for GOP Gov. Matt Bevin the year before. (Most of us in AFT and KEA also voted for Jack Conway, the KEA- and Kentucky State AFL-CIO-endorsed Democratic gubernatorial hopeful.

The fact that the president's popularity rating in Kentucky is 11.5 percentage points lower that his victory margin suggests that many Trump backers regret their votes. We'll know more in a Feb. 20 special House election in Bullitt County.

The incumbent, Republican Dan Johnson, took his own life. His widow, Republican Rebecca Johnson, who shares her late husband's ultra-conservative views, wants to replace him. Her opponent is state AFL-CIO and KEA-endorsed Democrat Linda Belcher, whom Dan Johnson unseated in 2016.  

KEA warned that the Tea Party-tilting Bevin could turn out to be the worst governor for public education in a long time, if not ever. Unions warned he was a union-buster to boot.

In 2017, he and his GOP-majority legislature pushed through a bill authorizing charter schools, which drain much-needed funds from public schools. (With Bevin cheering them on, GOP lawmakers also passed a right to work law and repealed the prevailing wage on state construction jobs.

Bevin's proposed 2018 budget takes a meat-axe to education spending from kindergarten through higher education, including community colleges and state universities. He also wants to gut the workers' compensation program. 

Too, in the phony name of pension "reform," Bevin has proposed a measure that would curb some benefits for current employees and retirees and force most new hires onto risky 401(a) programs.

Teachers are up in arms over the pension bill. (The GOP-majority House has been devising its own pension bill behind closed doors but has yet to release it.)

"It's great to see all the educators getting involved," Evans said. "But you know what it took to get them involved? Somebody is dipping his hand into their wallets."

Evans hates to say, "We told you so," but he reminded the delegates at our meeting that, all along, organized labor has been telling union members what politicians like Trump and Trump fan Bevin "want to do to them. It's the same in our ranks. It's taken politicians dipping into their wallets to get a lot of people re-engaged."

This post originally appeared at Kentucky State AFL-CIO.

Kenneth Quinnell Thu, 02/15/2018 - 14:05

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West Virginia GDP -- a Streamlit Version

  A survey of West Virginia GDP by industrial sectors for 2022, with commentary This is content on the main page.