Tuesday, January 23, 2018

Jeff Sessions Is Just Getting Started on Deporting More Immigrants [feedly]

Jeff Sessions Is Just Getting Started on Deporting More Immigrants
http://prospect.org/article/jeff-sessions-just-getting-started-on-deporting-more-immigrants

AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster

Attorney General Jeff Sessions speaks during a news conference at the Justice Department 

This could be Jeff Sessions's year.

Not that he wasn't busy in 2017, a year marked by his rescinding Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), attacking sanctuary cities, reinstating debtors' prisons, and cracking down on recreational marijuana. Indeed, over these last few months Sessions appears to have been working with the single-minded focus of a man who reportedly came within inches of losing his job in July after falling into President Trump's bad graces for recusing himself from the Mueller probe.

But 2018 will provide him his best chance yet at Trumpian redemption.

Sessions has long railed against the United States' "broken" asylum system and the massive backlog of immigration court cases, which has forced immigrants to suffer unprecedented wait times and has put a significant strain on court resources. But the attorney general's appetite for reform has now grown beyond pushing for more judges and a bigger budget, both largely bipartisan solutions. The past few months have seen Sessions begin to attempt to assert his influence over the work of immigration courts (which, unlike other federal courts, are part of the Executive Branch) and on diminishing the legal protections commonly used by hundreds of thousands of immigrants—developments that have alarmed immigration judges, attorneys, and immigrant advocacy groups alike.

Earlier this month, Sessions announced that he would be reviewing a decades-old practice used by immigration judges and the Justice Department's Board of Immigration Appeals to shelve cases without making a final ruling. Described by judges as a procedural tool for prioritizing cases and organizing their case dockets, the practice—"administrative closure"—also provides immigrants a temporary reprieve from deportation while their cases remain in removal proceedings. Critics argue that administrative closure, which became far more frequent in the later years of the Obama administration, creates a quasi-legal status for immigrants who might otherwise be deported.

There are currently around 350,000 administratively closed cases, according to according to the American Bar Association's ABA Journal.

Should Sessions decide to eliminate administrative closures—a decision many observers describe as imminent—those cases could be thrown into flux. The move would be in line with previous statements from various figures in the Trump administration and executive orders signed by the president himself—namely, that no immigrant is safe from deportation; no population is off the table.

Beyond creating chaos for hundreds of thousands of immigrants, the premature recalendaring of cases could also lead to erroneous deportations. For instance, in the case of unaccompanied minors applying for Special Immigrant Juvenile Status, a humanitarian protection granted by Citizenship and Immigration Services, an untimely return to court could be the difference between remaining or being ordered to leave the country. Even if a minor has already been approved by a state judge to apply for a green card, there is currently a two-year visa backlog for special visa applicants from Ecuador, Guatemala, and Honduras and more than a one-year backlog for those from from Mexico. Administrative closures allow these children to avoid deportation while they wait in line for a visa to become available.

But if judges can no longer close a case, they will either have to grant a string of continuances, a time-consuming act that requires all parties (the judge, defendant, and government attorney) to show up to court repeatedly, or simply issue an order of removal—even if the immigrant has a winning application sitting on a desk in Citizenship and Immigration Services. Under the Trump administration, Immigrations and Customs Enforcement has been actively filing to recalendar cases of non-criminals that had been administratively closed for months, including those of children whose applications had already been approved. Now Sessions, who as a senator zealously opposed immigration reforms that would benefit undocumented immigrants, could recalendar them all.

Unshelving hundreds of thousands of cases would also further bog down an already towering backlog of approximately 650,000 immigration court cases, according to Syracuse University's Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse—a policy result that at first seems antithetical to Sessions's rhetoric about cutting the backlog and raising efficiency. That is unless, as some suggest, the backlog and efficiency were never really his primary concerns to begin with.

"When [Sessions] says he wants to decrease the court backlog and hire more immigration judges, what he really means is he wants more deportation orders, whatever the cost," says Heidi Altman, director of policy at the National Immigrant Justice Center.

Sessions's decision to review administrative closure surprised few who had been following his rhetoric over the past few weeks. In a December memo detailing plans to slash the backlog, the attorney general said that he anticipated "clarifying certain legal matters in the near future that will remove recurring impediments to judicial economy and the timely administration of justice." The Justice Department had already largely done away with allowing prosecutors to join in motions to administratively close a case that didn't fall within its enforcement priorities. Removing a judge's ability to close a case would be the second in a one-two punch aimed at knocking down avenues of relief for cases that remain in the system for long periods of time.

And it's unlikely that Sessions will stop there. As attorney general, he is free to review legal precedents for lower immigration courts. In changing precedential rulings, he could do away with a multitude of other legal lifelines essential to immigrants and their attorneys.

In October, Sessions called on Congress to tighten the rules on asylum admittance, claiming that the system was filled with "rampant fraud and abuse" and was "being gamed" by immigrants and their attorneys. Given that Congress has been slow to form a political consensus on even the most basic immigration issues, Sessions may feel inclined to go at it on his own.

A logical starting point for Sessions could be narrowing the eligibility standards for obtaining asylum. To qualify for asylum, immigrants must prove that they will be persecuted in their country because of their religion, nationality, ethnicity, political beliefs, or social group. That last category, social group, is the most nebulous of the bunch and therefore the most subject to new interpretation. The accepted definition of "social group" has expanded under previous administrations to include homosexuals persecuted by their governments, female victims of domestic assault and sexual abuse who are unable to leave their marriages, and even those who can prove their family ties are a central reason for persecution. Sessions could change the precedent so as to tighten standards or possibly even revoke the status of some populations as protected social groups.

Another possibility is that Sessions will try to stop immigrants in the middle of adjusting their legal status from re-entering the country entirely. With a few exceptions, any undocumented immigrant fortunate enough to have a pathway to legal residence through a spouse or family member must first leave the country before being awarded a visa. However, according to the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996, immigrants who entered the U.S. illegally or overstayed their visa and remained for more than a year are barred from re-entering for 10 years. In 2012, the Board of Immigration Appeals ruled that these unlawful presence bars do not apply to an immigrant who leaves the U.S. with permission from the government to depart and return (called advance parole). Advance parole, unlike other waivers, guarantees that immigrants will be able to re-enter the country when they seek to—rather than wait a decade.

Sessions could overturn that decision, forcing many undocumented immigrants who don't qualify for other waivers to choose between being stranded for years in their countries of origin or remaining illegally in the U.S. Such a decision would have drastic implications for those Dreamers who have already lost their protected status and the large number who will begin to lose their status in March unless Congress acts. The same would go for hundreds of thousands of recipients of Temporary Protected Status, whose status has been rescinded and will look to change their legal status before they become subject to deportation in a few years.

Like Trump's travel ban and rescinding of DACA, Sessions's ability to move down these paths will likely depend on how much leeway the federal courts are willing to grant him. Historically, the courts have shown considerable deference to the attorney general and the Justice Department's Board of Immigration Appeals when it comes to interpreting immigration laws; they've also been issuing decisions on particular social groups for decades. That means that, while it may prove difficult for Sessions to unilaterally change well-established interpretations of the law, such as that LGBT people are a protected social group, there are plenty of cases he could pursue without significant legal challenge.

"Administrative closure makes a good starting point for Sessions, because the courts likely won't be able stop it," says Paul Schmidt, a former immigration judge and former head of the Board of Immigration Appeals. "Administrative closure was a tool created by the Justice Department and therefore it can be dismantled by the Justice Department."

"After all, the bad thing about the immigration courts is that they belong to the attorney general," Schmidt adds.

Unlike other federal judges, immigration judges are technically considered Justice Department employees. This unique status as a judicial wing of the executive branch has left them open to threats of politicization. In October, it was revealed that the White House was planning on adding metrics on the duration and quantity of cases adjudicated by immigration judges to their performance reviews, effectively creating decision quotas. A spokeswoman for the National Association of Immigration Judges described the proposal as a worrying encroachment on judicial independence. "Immigration judge morale is at an all time low," says Dana Marks, former president of the association and a judge for more than 30 years. Other federal judges are not subject to any such performance evaluations.

It's no coincidence that a review of administrative closure was announced just a few months after it was discovered that the Justice Department was considering imposing quotas on judges. Streamlining deportations has proven an elusive goal, even for Sessions: Deportations in 2017 were down from the previous year, according to DHS numbers. Meanwhile, arrests surged—up 42 percent from the same period in 2016. Flooding already overwhelmed immigration courts with even more cases would certainly cause chaos in the short-term, but wouldn't necessarily lead to deportations by itself. If an end to administrative closures is paired with decision quotas on immigration judges, however, a surge in deportations seems inevitable. 



 -- via my feedly newsfeed

The Stupid Economy [feedly]

The Stupid Economy
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/stupid-economy-declining-human-intelligence-by-harold-james-2018-01

Advances in automation and artificial intelligence already pose a clear threat to countless occupations, just as the technologies of the Industrial Revolution did for many forms of manual labor in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. But this time, it is not just our jobs that are in danger.

PRINCETON – Most discussions about the march of robotics and artificial intelligence (AI) have understandably concentrated on fears of massive job losses. But the implications of these technologies are actually far more terrifying. We have been brought to the brink of an alarming evolutionary transformation, not just of human capacities, but of the individual self.

THE YEAR AHEAD 2018

The world's leading thinkers and policymakers examine what's come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

ORDER NOW

History provides only a partial guide for the uncertain future we face. What we know from the first Industrial Revolution is that new technologies can fundamentally alter humans and other species. The key to this process, according to Cambridge University's Tony Wrigley, the great historian of the era, was the replacement of human- and animal-driven mechanical energy by more productive forms, such as coal and other fossil fuels.

To be sure, the large-scale devaluation of human and animal muscle power did not happen immediately. At first, many auxiliary tasks – including mining the coal, or creating intermediate products in workshops – still required enormous physical exertion. But, after around two centuries, physical strength was rarely in demand.

Gradually, the basic nature of work had changed. By the late twentieth century, farmers sat on tractors, and even coal mining had become largely mechanized. There were few people in developed economies still earning incomes from the sweat of their brows.

Human physiognomy also changed, especially when the Industrial Revolution's full potential was realized. Sedentary lifestyles produced visibly different people. Waistlines expanded as previously salubrious diets, needed to fuel massive physical exertion, became increasingly unhealthy.

Some people saw these changes happening, and worried about them. A growing minority started to pursue intense physical activity not in fields or factories, but in leisure settings. The sweat of one's brow was no longer associated with productive work, but with consumption – often conspicuous consumption. Gyms became new sources of community. And as coworkers started to exercise together, enlightened employers came to see such recreation as a valuable source of physical and mental wellbeing.

The Industrial Revolution was driven by mental activity. Another way of thinking about it, then, is as an "industrious revolution," a term advanced by Jan De Vries of the University of California, Berkeley, Joel Mokyr of Northwestern University and the University of Tel Aviv, and other historians. In an industrious revolution, inter-connected groups of innovators compete with one another to devise new solutions to existing problems, resulting in a virtuous circle.

By putting a premium on mental endeavors and making physical routines obsolete, the transformation over the past three centuries gave people more opportunities to think. As humankind's collective intelligence rose to new heights, the dream of human perfectibility emerged. But that, we now know, was an illusion. The level of intellectual attainment that resulted from the Industrial Revolution may turn out to have been a plateau.

The technological revolution now underway is generating a different sort of replacement. Many tasks that once required human intelligence – making connections and drawing inferences; recognizing patterns; tracing the implications of complex events – are now better handled by AI applications. Whether the job is to scan thousands of pages of legal contracts for inconsistencies, or to make radiological assessments, an algorithm can now do it more reliably and less expensively. Soon, this will also be true of driving a vehicle.

At the same time, modern behavioral economics has shown that human thought can introduce irrational elements into otherwise straightforward processes. The search is on to discover and control for characteristics of the human mind that could produce distorting, unproductive, or inefficient results. Apparently, the next stage in human perfectibility will require us to give up independent thinking and judgment altogether.

AI and automation have obvious implications for employment. But they will also affect the human mind. The jobs of the future, most of them in the services sector, will require a different set of skills, particularly interpersonal skills that robotic applications – even Siri or Alexa – cannot provide. The ability to perform complex calculations or sophisticated analyses will be far less important.

The problem is that many older activities – be it driving in difficult conditions on a mountain road or taking on a complex legal case – are a source of fulfillment for countless people, because they provide opportunities to confront difficult, intrinsically motivated challenges. Soon, those activities, like plowing a medieval field, may be lost forever.

Worse still, ample evidence shows that people may have reason to regret retiring from mentally demanding jobs and embarking on a life of leisure. It turns out that not having to think on a regular basis is neither restful nor enjoyable. On the contrary, it tends to lead to poor mental and physical health, and a deteriorating quality of life.

The elimination of countless cognitive tasks has alarming implications for the future. Just as the Industrial Revolution made most humans physically weaker, the AI revolution will make us collectively duller. In addition to flabby waistlines, we will have flabby minds. It's not the economy, stupid; it's the stupid economy. Already, central banks are urgently exploring new ways to dumb down their statements for an increasingly unsophisticated public.

Mass stupidity will be driven by technology. But, as with the cult of physical fitness that took hold during the Industrial Revolution, a new industry of intelligence training will likely emerge to counter mental deterioration. Listening to someone constructing a logically articulated argument will become an exclusive source of aesthetic pleasure and distinction. "Difficult" works of literature or visual arts will become an ever more attractive form of conspicuous consumption.

And yet something about this seems deeply unpleasant. It is bad enough to listen to people boast about their physical fitness. But braggadocio about superior intellect will be far worse. The need to prove oneself as a lasting relic of the old human supremacy will threaten not just the common good, but also our common humanity.



 -- via my feedly newsfeed

Worker Portraits: Contradictions and Contingency [feedly]

Worker Portraits: Contradictions and Contingency
https://workingclassstudies.wordpress.com/2018/01/22/worker-portraits-contradictions-and-contingency/


Paintings and sculptures often represent those with power, not the working class. Yet, a current exhibit at Washington, D.C.'s  National Portrait Gallery, "The Sweat of Their Face: Portraying America's Workers," not only highlights workers, it also invites us to consider the contradictions of work and how it has changed.  The exhibit covers more than two hundred years, tracing how artists and documenters have viewed workers.

Perhaps because of this historical perspective, the curators seem to define "worker" primarily as "manual laborer," including factory workers as well as farm hands, newspaper boys, and construction workers.  As this suggests, the exhibit skews toward men, though it does also include a "Jolly Washerwoman" and Gordon Parks's famous portrait of Ella Watson, his version of "American Gothic." The exhibit also has some notable gaps. Milt Rogovin's steelworker portraits are absent, as are contemporary photojournalism by Carl Corey, David Bacon, Steve Cagan, and Michael Williamson.

Dawoud Bey's 1976 portrait of Deas MacNeil in his barber shop

The dignity of workers and the social value of their labor is a central theme, visible in familiar works like Lewis Hine's photos of construction workers, a Norman Rockwell painting of a smiling miner, or J. Howard Miller's famous and much-reproduced "We Can Do It!" poster of the woman who would become known as Rosie the Riveter. Less familiar images also echo this theme, including Dawoud Bey's portraits of African-American small business owners – a barber and the owner of a barbecue joint — from his Harlem USA series, or Shauna Frischkorn's striking large-scale portrait of "Kean, Subway Sandwich Artist" from her still-developing series, McWorkers.

The exhibit also captures tensions about work, which, as the opening commentary of the exhibit puts it, "influences how Americans measure their lives and how they assess their contributions to society" but can also be "exploitative, painful, and hard." A number of images, especially documentary photographs by Hine, Jacob Riis, Dorothea Lange, and others associated with the Works Progress Administration or the Farm Security Administration of the 1930s, draw our attention to the struggles of the workplace – to child laborers, to poverty, to physical dangers.

Most of the images are portraits, focusing on a single worker rather than their context or the work being done, which reflects the exhibit's setting in the National Portrait Gallery. These images take workers seriously, asking us to recognize the valor of their labor, their pride and competence, but also to recognize them as people. As the museum label alongside Frischkorn's photo suggests, her work "brings our attention to the low social and economic status given to fast-food employees. The 'unattractive and ill-fitting' uniforms might be designed to make them anonymous, but Frischkorn pushes against this strategy to reveal each worker's uniqueness." Yet even as the exhibit encourages viewers to see each worker as unique, the repetition of the serious, determined, often tired look on so many faces makes clear that most working-class labor is physically exhausting and often dangerous.

This sense of work as struggle exists in tension with the idealistic claim of the introductory panel for the exhibit, that work is the "foundation of the philosophy of self-improvement and social mobility that undergirds this country's value system." Despite this statement, the exhibit offers almost no images that suggest upward mobility. Instead, we see portrait after portrait of workers who seem determined and resilient, even though their hard work is unlikely to improve their lot in life.

This may be even more true today, as working-class jobs become more contingent and precarious, than it was during the historical periods that are most represented in the exhibit. Danny Vinik summarized the contemporary and future reality of work in a recent article in Politico:

Over the past two decades, the U.S. labor market has undergone a quiet transformation, as companies increasingly forgo full-time employees and fill positions with independent contractors, on-call workers or temps—what economists have called "alternative work arrangements" or the "contingent workforce." Most Americans still work in traditional jobs, but these new arrangements are growing—and the pace appears to be picking up. From 2005 to 2015, according to the best available estimate, the number of people in alternative work arrangements grew by 9 million and now represents roughly 16 percent of all U.S. workers, while the number of traditional employees declined by 400,000. A perhaps more striking way to put it is that during those 10 years, all net job growth in the American economy has been in contingent jobs.

In many cases, as Vinik's article makes clear, contingent workers don't look much different from the full-time employees they have replaced – in fact, they are often the same people. Vinik frames his essay with the story of Diana Borland, a hospital transcriptionist whose $19 an hour full-time job was reassigned to a contractor that paid her by the line, dropping her hourly wages to just $6.36, less than minimum wage. While she was discouraged, Borland found another job, but she worries about her daughter's and granddaughters' future. "Where is the American Dream?" she asked Vinik.

"Nine to Five,"

"The Sweat of Their Face" largely ignores changes in work, one piece does make the costs to workers of contemporary capitalism visible. Josh Kline's sculpture "Nine to Five," shows a cleaning cart stocked not only with spray bottles and scrub brushes but also the dismembered head and hands of a janitor. The title is ironic, since many janitorial jobs involve evening and night shifts. The piece exaggerates the idea of work as linked with identity, and in the process Kline critiques the dehumanizing effect of contemporary labor conditions.

Among the largest and most striking pieces in the exhibit is a John Neagle's larger-than-lifesize 1827 painting of Pat Lyon. The almost 94-inch tall portrait depicts Lyon as a blacksmith, standing beside a large anvil in front of a fiery stove, his white shirt rumpled and open at the neck, a heavy leather apron protecting him from sparks, and an almost defiant look on his ruddy face. But it isn't only the scale that makes this painting so striking. It is the story behind it: according to the online catalog of the Boston Museum of Fine Arts, which owns the painting, Lyon was  wealthy and successful, which is why he could afford to commission such a large, heroic image of himself, but he asked Neagle to depict him as the blacksmith he once was, telling the artist that he did "not wish to be represented as what I am not—a gentleman." For many visitors to the exhibit, this image of a wealthy man as a proud laborer is the first work they encounter. It is at once odd and fitting that the first image treats work as an idealized role, not as a real, material and social act.

In the early 21st century, it's almost impossible to imagine a successful businessman asking a painter or photographer to depict him as, say, a Subway sandwich maker. The conditions of work in the contingent economy not only undermine what the Portrait Gallery calls "this country's value system." They also undermine the potential for workers to find pride and satisfaction on the job. That may be one reason Frischkorn refers to her photos of fast-food workers, which mimic the style of Renaissance portraits, as "ironic." The images emphasize the workers' humanity in an era when dignity on the job has become out of reach along with expectations that hard work will pay off in "self-improvement and social mobility."

Sherry Linkon



 -- via my feedly newsfeed

Kansas Provides Compelling Evidence of Failure of “Supply-Side” Tax Cuts [feedly]

Kansas Provides Compelling Evidence of Failure of "Supply-Side" Tax Cuts
http://ritholtz.com/2018/01/kansas-provides-compelling-evidence-failure-supply-side-tax-cuts/

Kansas Provides Compelling Evidence of Failure of "Supply-Side" Tax Cuts MICHAEL MAZEROV Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, January 22, 2018       The deep income cuts that Kansas enacted in 2012 and 2013 for many business owners and other high-income Kansans failed to achieve their goal of boosting business formation and job creation,…

Read More

The post Kansas Provides Compelling Evidence of Failure of "Supply-Side" Tax Cutsappeared first on The Big Picture.



 -- via my feedly newsfeed

The TCJA, combined with a cynical PR campaign from the GOP and the corporate world, could hit American families hard in the 2019 tax season [feedly]

The TCJA, combined with a cynical PR campaign from the GOP and the corporate world, could hit American families hard in the 2019 tax season
http://www.epi.org/blog/the-tcja-combined-with-a-cynical-pr-campaign-from-the-gop-and-their-partners-in-the-corporate-world-could-hit-american-families-hard-in-the-2019-tax-season/

Republican congressional leaders and President Trump have made loud claims about how great the recently passed Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will be for typical American families. When will these families be able to conclusively judge the truth of these claims? Not for a long while. The changes from the new tax law took effect on January 1. Companies now have to figure out how much to change workers' tax withholdings to comply with the new law. To do that, they need guidance from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS).

But this is the same IRS that has seen its budget cut by 18 percent and its workforce cut by 14 percent since 2010. And it's the same IRS that would send home over half of its workforce if the government shuts down again. While a deal was reached to end the current shutdown, that deal only funds the government through February 8th. All as the 2018 tax filing system ramps up and 2017 tax returns flood into the agency.

Typically, this shouldn't be much of an issue. A shutdown would usually only push back the timing of withholding changes. The IRS would understandably take more time to issue guidance, and companies would simply implement the new withholdings later in the year.

But the Trump administration has already been pressuring the IRS to aim for speed over accuracy in new withholdings. Further, they would love companies to err on the side of withholding too little and boosting workers' take-home pay, even if this meant that these workers have to make large payments back to the government in 2019. After all, the salience of the TCJA is as high as it's going to be, and this administration is not shy at all about putting political expedience over smart policy. And telling workers that the tax cut is already working for them is awfully expedient in a mid-term election year. If the administration continues to focus on speed, then what was already a risk of under-withholding would be augmented by a government shutdown.

The administration has ample ability to apply that pressure, as the Treasury's current Assistant Secretary for Tax Policy, David Kautter, is also, bizarrely, moonlighting as the acting commissioner of the IRS.

Finally, even after the IRS issues guidance, companies have to implement that guidance. And there's another considerable risk to watch for here.

Many companies are already firmly onboard the marketing campaign to trumpet the wonder of the TCJA, claiming loudly that each bonus they have sent out stems from corporate tax cuts. Such claims are nothing but PR. (We'll explain why we know this in more detail in an upcoming blog post.) But the simplest explanation is that this is just not how the economic theory linking corporate tax cuts to wage gains works. To be clear, we don't believe this theory applies to the current situation, but even if it did, it would not work like this. Can households really trust companies that have proved so willing to lie to workers in the name of defending the TCJA to be scrupulous about withholding the proper amount of tax from workers' paychecks? After all, under-withholding just means their employees have to mail larger checks to the IRS in 2019. Do we really think companies doing PR work for the TCJA care about that?

The IRS was already understaffed by years of budget cuts and could become severely understaffed by another government shutdown in February. All while they're under political pressure to keep withholdings as low as possible and get new withholding guidance out the door quickly. And the companies that have already engaged in PR for corporate tax cuts aren't exactly trustworthy for ensuring withholdings aren't too large. This combination means that there's considerable risk that many households under-withhold this year. Households should take this risk seriously, or they'll be left trying to find money to pay the difference in 2019. In short, the combination of the TCJA and truly cynical partnerships between Republicans and their cheerleaders in the corporate world have made the 2019 tax season a potential time-bomb for typical American families.



 -- via my feedly newsfeed

David Leonhardt: A lot of progressives are disappointed...


David Leonhardt
 

David Leonhardt

Op-Ed Columnist
A lot of progressives are angry or disappointed this morning. They're upset that "spineless" Democrats in Congress didn't take a stand — by keeping the federal government closed until Republicans agreed to protect the young immigrants known as Dreamers.
I fully understand their anxiety on behalf of those immigrants, the Dreamers. The future of the Dreamers remains unclear. But it's worth taking a minute to understand the very large assumption that unhappy progressives are making. When you examine that assumption — and recent congressional history — I think you end up seeing that Democrats made a smart move to reopen the government. Unfortunately, their choice wasn't, as the critics claim, between protecting or abandoning the Dreamers.
The critics' big assumption is that the Republicans would have eventually folded if the government had remained shut down. The theory goes something like this:
Republicans are running the country right now, and a long shutdown would hurt them more than it hurts Democrats. At some point, feeling the political heat, Republicans would have agreed to what the Democrats wanted, including protection for the Dreamers.
No one can know what would have happened in a hypothetical scenario, but there are many reasons to be skeptical of these assumptions.
First, it's the same case that conservative activists made during the Obama and Clinton presidencies. In 2013, conservatives were trying to get Democrats to defund Obamacare and thought they could force the governing party to do so by shuttering the government.
The effort failed, under Obama and Clinton, for a simple reason. Democrats understood that if they gave in, they would allow the Republicans to repeat the exercise whenever they wanted: Shut the government until the governing party paid ransom. The minority party would effectively be in control.
The same dynamic holds here. Shutdowns have never "been an effective way to pressure the other side into concessions," the longtime political reporter Ron Brownstein tweeted yesterday. "If anyone should recognize that it's Democrats who watched R's flail and fail to move Clinton & Obama."
Cathleen Decker of The Los Angeles Times put it this way: "In all the anger coming from liberal Dem groups today," she wrote that she had "yet to see a scenario under which a longer shutdown would have resulted in a more positive outcome from their point of view."
The second reason to be skeptical of the critics is that their big assumption depends on the belief that a long shutdown would have put more political pressure on the Republicans and Democrats. As evidence, the critics cite polls showing that most voters believe the Dreamers deserve to remain in this country.
Of course, polls also showed Obamacare to be unpopular in 2013. More important, recent polls showed that most voters didn't believe the government should be shut down over the Dreamers. Most polls also showed support for the Democrats slipping as the debate dragged on. And as I explained in my column yesterday, there is abundant evidence that a prolonged debate over illegal immigration helps Republicans, not Democrats.
In the end, I think a long shutdown was more likely to hurt the Dreamers than to help them. Congress would not have passed a law to protect them before reopening the government, and the Dreamers' allies in Congress — the Democrats — would be in a weaker position than they are now.
That said, the critics' disappointment stems from a profoundly decent instinct. They're worried about Dreamers being ripped from their lives in this country. I share the worry — and the anger at Republican leaders who refuse to solve this problem.
But it's just not the case that a minority party can force the majority party to do what it wants if only it summons enough righteous anger. It never has been. It's another version of the Green Lantern Theory of politics — that if you care enough and try hard enough, you can do anything.
The best hope for the Dreamers was not a shutdown that was somehow supposed to end differently from every other recent shutdown. The best hope, first, is to see if there is a solution over the next few weeks, away from the chaos and heat of a shuttered federal government.
If that doesn't work, there is only one reliable way to change a policy that the majority party won't change: Turn that party into the minority party.
Paul KrugmanEzra KleinCatherine RampellNate Cohn and Perry Bacon Jr. make cases similar to mine. Among other things, some of them point out that Democrats won a six-year extension of the children's health insurance program as part of the deal, which is no small feat.
My biggest question for Democratic leaders is whether they could have made the same deal a couple of days ago. If so, it would have been better. But it probably doesn't matter either way. A two-day shutdown isn't going to affect the political scene months from now.
My colleagues David Brooks and Michelle Goldberg make a different case from mine, arguing, from different perspectives, that the Democrats got rolled.

--
John Case
Harpers Ferry, WV

The Winners and Losers Radio Show
7-9 AM Weekdays, The Enlighten Radio Player Stream, 
Sign UP HERE to get the Weekly Program Notes.

Yes, People at the Ludwig von Mises Institute Think Churchill Was a War Criminal for Not Making Peace with Hitler in May 1940. Why Do You Ask?: Hoisted from the Archives [feedly]

Yes, People at the Ludwig von Mises Institute Think Churchill Was a War Criminal for Not Making Peace with Hitler in May 1940. Why Do You Ask?: Hoisted from the Archives
http://www.bradford-delong.com/2018/01/yes-people-at-the-ludwig-von-mises-institute-think-churchill-was-a-war-criminal-for-not-making-peace-with-hitler-in-may-1940.html

Hoisted from the Archives: Yes, People at the Ludwig von Mises Institute Think Churchill Was a War Criminal for Not Making Peace with Hitler in May 1940. Why Do You Ask?: David Gordon:

Ludwig von Mises Institute: Given this sorry record, it is hardly surprising that the renewed outbreak of world war in September 1939, which returned Churchill to the British cabinet as First Lord of the Admiralty, brought a new hunger blockade of Germany.... Franklin Roosevelt rivaled his British counterpart in his disregard for the rules of civilized warfare....

Long before the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor on that "date which will live in infamy," December 7, 1941, Roosevelt hoped that the Chinese would bomb the major cities of Japan. Because of the presence of closely packed together wooden buildings, entire cities could readily be set afire.... Roosevelt was anxious for confrontation with the Japanese. Roosevelt's stationing of the Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor was intended to provoke them....

The moral offenses of Churchill and Roosevelt were not confined to violations of the laws of war.... Hitler wished to expel [the Jews] from Germany, and those willing to emigrate were actively encouraged to do so.... Roosevelt did virtually nothing to help.... Neither did he show much interest in efforts to settle the Jews elsewhere. Churchill, despite his frequently expressed sympathy for Jews and Zionism, was little better....

[W]as it not a clear moral imperative to avoid the outbreak of war and, if possible, to secure the evacuation of the Jews from parts of Europe likely to fall under German control? Further, once war broke out, was it not imperative to end the war as soon as possible? Churchill rejected all efforts to reach a settlement [ending World War II]. He continued the hunger blockade, a move that could only exacerbate the most extreme Nazi policies...



 -- via my feedly newsfeed