Eastern Panhandle Independent Community (EPIC) Radio:Holiday EPIC, Followed by Odes

John Case has sent you a link to a blog:



Blog: Eastern Panhandle Independent Community (EPIC) Radio
Post: Holiday EPIC, Followed by Odes
Link: http://www.enlightenradio.org/2016/11/holiday-epic-followed-by-odes.html

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Falling Costs: Two Non-Technical Papers [feedly]

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Falling Costs: Two Non-Technical Papers
// Digitopoly

This is just a pointer to two new (non-technical) papers of mine that look at the implications of various falling costs associated with new technologies.

The first is a much longer version of the blog post earlier this week on the simple economics of artificial intelligence. "Managing the Machines" co-authored with Ajay Agrawal and Avi Goldfarb looks at how new developments in machine intelligence is lowering the cost of prediction and, as a consequence, placing new emphasis on the role for human judgment.

The second is a paper co-authored with Christian Catalini on "Some Simple Economics of the Blockchain." There, we look at how the blockchain may lead to a dramatic reduction in the cost of verification and how this may stimulate new economic activity.

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Re: [CCDS Members] NYTimes: Hillary Clinton Blames F.B.I. Director {SJ}

Hello all.  I agree, and I discussed the possibility before the election: http://www.greanvillepost.com/2016/11/01/the-cometization-of-the-2016-elections-the-role-of-the-ruling-class/

 

With best wishes to all, Steve Jonas

 

In a message dated 11/12/2016 11:28:39 P.M. Eastern Standard Time, jcase4218@gmail.com writes:

Hillary Clinton Blames F.B.I. Director for Election Loss http://nyti.ms/2eOiVcJ

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Eastern Panhandle Independent Community (EPIC) Radio

John Case has sent you a link to a blog:



Blog: Eastern Panhandle Independent Community (EPIC) Radio
Link: http://www.enlightenradio.org/2016/11/the-poetry-show-on-epic-radio-november.html

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Video: Conversation between David Harvey & Evgeny Morozov on post-neoliberalism, Trump, infrastructure, sharing economy, smart city [feedly]

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Video: Conversation between David Harvey & Evgeny Morozov on post-neoliberalism, Trump, infrastructure, sharing economy, smart city
// Reading Marx's Capital with David Harvey

Conversation between Evgeny Morozov and David Harvey
Nov 14, 2016
Barcelona
Part of The Barcelona Initiative on Technological Sovereignty (BITS)

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Trump and the Dollar: They’re just not that into each other [feedly]

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Trump and the Dollar: They're just not that into each other
// Jared Bernstein | On the Economy

I've been meaning to write about this but Neil Irwin beat me to it, so let me add a few points to Neil's fine piece, along with a bit of data.

As the figure below shows, since the day before Donald Trump become the president-elect, the Wall St. Journal's dollar index is up about 4 percent. The reasons are varied and one must be careful to not over-interpret short-term currency movements, but the post-election blip is actually a continuation of a longer-term trend. Broad indexes of the dollar against a basket of international currencies are up 20-25 percent since mid-2014.



Source: WSJ

For one, we're growing faster than most other advanced economies and that makes the dollar a relatively attractive investment. While central banks in Europe are holding interest rates at zero if not going negative, our Fed is slowly but surely beginning a campaign to "normalize" rates. That in itself raises the value of the dollar, but importantly, it also draws in more capital flows from abroad, seeking safe American assets. These flows also pressure the dollar.

And then there's Trump's expansionary fiscal plans along with his protectionism and the alleged Mexican wall. Those too push up the dollar, against which the peso has been particularly sensitive–and inversely correlated–to Trump's rise.

The Chinese yuan (accounted for in all the measures noted above), which just hit its lowest level in eight years, is also particularly germane in the Trump's economic cosmology. It's decline appears to have more to do with internal Chinese economics, including a downshift in growth, low interest rates, and an asset bubble (which has prompted some Chinese investors to move their assets abroad—part of the capital outflows noted above), than with Trump. But, of course, Trump railed against Chinese currency depreciation in the campaign, so this latest trend could easily get under his skin.



Source: WSJ

Another interesting problem for Trump in this space derives from one of his economic advisers, David Malpass. I've known David for years and enjoyed debating him on these issues, but he's as hard money/strong dollar a guy as you'll meet. Here he is a decade ago arguing the very non-Trumpian case that we should "embrace" the trade deficit!

As Neil points out, using basic rules of thumb about the relationship between the appreciating dollar and the trade deficit, "Mr. Trump's pledge to eliminate the $500 billion United States trade deficit would have just become $180 billion to $270 billion harder."

Closing the loop here is the relationship between the stronger dollar, higher trade deficit (which is exclusively in manufactured goods; we have a surplus in services), and manufacturing jobs. Here too, there are of course more moving parts than just exchange rates, but since the dollar began to appreciate in mid-2014, employment growth in our factories has essentially flatlined.

Simply put, a stronger dollar, while always the stated preference of the US Treasury (whether they really mean it or not is another story), is no friend of Trump's. That could ultimately lead him to beat up on the Fed for raising rates and further driving up the dollar, or even to think about ways in which the president can block capital flows into our country.

In other words, stay tuned.

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Must-Read: Jason Furman : Five Fiscal Policy Principles : "Nowhere is... recovery complete... ...The eurozone has ... [feedly]

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Must-Read: Jason Furman : Five Fiscal Policy Principles : "Nowhere is... recovery complete... ...The eurozone has ...
// Grasping Reality with Both Hands: The Semi-Daily Journal Economist Brad DeLong

Must-Read: Jason Furman: Five Fiscal Policy Principles: "Nowhere is... recovery complete...

...The eurozone has an unemployment rate of 10%.... Japan's per-capita GDP... has... stalled. The US... still has more to do to eliminate labour market slack. Too many policymakers have abandoned expansionary fiscal policy as a tool for supporting growth, placing the burden on monetary policy. For their efforts, central bankers around the world were excoriated by many of the same legislators who to this day are also blocking sufficient fiscal support. Some objections to more fiscal expansion are based on an "old view" of fiscal policy advanced by many academic economists in the years before the crisis. This argues that discretionary stimulus is too rigid or ineffective or even counterproductive, and was at odds with the more fundamental problem of long-term debt. But the post-crisis experience, as well as research on the effects of fiscal policy, is establishing a "new view" grounded in five principles:

At a time when conventional monetary policy faces limitations in a world of lower interest rates, fiscal policy can be a particularly effective complement....In today's conditions fiscal policy may... "crowd in" private investment through stronger growth....[In] advanced economies... under today's economic conditions effectively crafted investments could raise output by more than they raise debt--reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio....Prolonged lower interest rates and economies operating below potential suggest that fiscal expansion should be more sustained....Fiscal policy is even more beneficial if co-ordinated more across countries...

Jason Furman: The New View of Fiscal Policy and Its Application:

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