Hysteresis: Some Fairly-Recent Must- and Should-Reads [feedly]

From Brad Delong's Blog: There is a lot in the economic press now about the lagging effects of structural changes in labor force patterns during and following the Great Recession (2007).  Economists apply the term "hysteresis" --  the dependence of the state of a system on its history -- to this phenomenon.  

The literature reveals rapid redefinitions of important terms like "unemployment", "natural rate of interest" (it went negative!), the manufacturing -- services distinctions and classifications, "human capital", "public goods", "intangibles", and more take. The debates and discussions reflect the mounting data detailing the multifaceted pressures of Globalization and automation at work in nearly every economic sphere.

Hysteresis: Some Fairly-Recent Must- and Should-Reads
http://www.bradford-delong.com/2018/08/hysteresis-some-fairly-recent-must-and-should-reads.html

• The empirical studies are finding more and more hysteresis—more hysteresis in the sense of a persistent downward shadow cast by a recession than I would have believed likely. I keep hunting for something wrong with these studies. But there are too many of them. And they all—at least all those published that cross my desk—point in the same direction: Karl Walentin and Andreas Westermark: Stabilising the real economy increases average output: "DeLong and Summers (1989)... argue that (demand) stabilisation policies can affect the mean level of output and unemployment...

• As Chief Acolyte of the "hysteresis view", I must protest! The "hysteresis view" has proved correct: Benoît Cœuré: Scars that never were?: Potential output and slack after the crisis: "To be clear... I do believe that deep recessions can have effects on the supply capacity of the economy that may take some time to unwind...

• We are not yet at maximum feasible employment: Jared Bernstein: Employment Breakeven Levels: They're higher than most of us thought: "We know neither the natural rate of unemployment nor the potential level of GDP...

• Nick Bunker: JOLTS Day Graphs: February 2018 Report Edition: "The quits rate continues to hold steady at 2.2 percent. The rate has been 2.2 percent on average for the past 3 months as well as the past year..

• Nick Bunker: "What does this tell us?: ".@de1ong asked so here it is: the Beveridge Curve with the prime employment rate instead of U3...

• Josh Bivens: The fuzzy line between "unemployed" and "not in the labor force" and what it means for job creation strategies and the Federal Reserve: "Jobless people are classified into... either unemployed or not in the labor force...

• Nick Bunker: JOLTS and the Beveridge Curve

• Valerie Cerra and Sweta C. Saxena: The Economic Scars of Crises and Recessions: "According to the traditional business cycle view... our new study casts doubt on this traditional view and shows that all types of recessions...

• Simon Wren-Lewis: mainly macro: The Output Gap is no longer a sufficient statistic for inflationary pressure: "From 1955 to 2007 prosperity grew at an average rate of almost two and a quarter percent each year...

• Nick Bunker: Just how tight is the U.S. labor market?: "Spoiler: There's room for the job market to improve...

• Katharine G. Abraham and Melissa S. Kearney: Explaining the Decline in the U.S. Employment-to-Population Ratio: A Review of the Evidence: "Within-age-group declines in employment among young and prime age adults have been at least as important...

• Nick Bunker: Weekend reading: "A jolt in the markets" edition: "This week marks the 25th anniversary of President Bill Clinton's signing the Family and Medical Leave Act into law...

• Danny Yagan: EMPLOYMENT HYSTERESIS FROM THE GREAT RECESSION: "This paper uses U.S. local areas as a laboratory to test whether the Great Recession depressed 2015 employment...

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