Friday, February 2, 2018

Privatization Won’t Fix Puerto Rico’s Broken Power Utility [feedly]

Privatization Won't Fix Puerto Rico's Broken Power Utility
http://cepr.net/publications/op-eds-columns/privatization-won-t-fix-puerto-rico-s-broken-power-utility

Privatization Won't Fix Puerto Rico's Broken Power Utility

Lara Merling 
NACLA, February 1, 2018

See article on original site

Puerto Rico recently announced they will privatize its power utility. Past experience shows that fixing the broken electrical system won't be so simple.

Hurricane Maria wreaked havoc in Puerto Rico, severely damaging infrastructure, knocking out power across nearly the entire island, and limiting access to basic necessities. Almost six months after the storm, there is little indication that the island is on a path to recovery. Restoring power has been particularly slow, with about 30 percent of customers still left in the dark.  The extensive damage caused by the storm—along with the slowpace of restoring electricity, and scandals surrounding the process—have highlighted the struggles and dysfunction of Puerto Rico's Electric Power Authority (PREPA). In the aftermath of this tragedy, a narrative that fits the pattern of what Naomi Klein refers to as the "shock doctrine" hardened: government mismanagement was to blame for the state of the state-owned utility, and the only solution was privatization.

The push to privatize the PREPA is not new; governments have advocated it for decades. Earlier this month, the electrical workers' union argued that the agency was intentionally set up for failure, precisely so that it could be privatized. Just a few months prior to the hurricane, four of the seven members of the island's undemocratic Financial Oversight and Management Board (FOMB)— created by the US Congress in 2016 to control Puerto Rico's finances and  tackle its long-term fiscal issues—authored an editorial that called for PREPA's privatization. Prior to the storm, these calls failed to gain sufficient traction.

After the storm, as scandals and infighting between agencies snarled efforts to restore power, residents' frustration grew—and backers of privatization seized the opportunity to push their agenda. When the governor announced his plan to privatize PREPA, promising that this would bring lower rates and better service, he met little resistance.

The fiscal plan the governor recently submitted to the Financial Oversight and Management Board, as mandated by the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management, and Economic Stability Act (PROMESA), does not question whether privatizing PREPA is necessary. Rather, it presents it as the only viable option. The plan claims that by privatizing the embattled utility, it will "transform" it into an efficient, reliable, and cost-effective energy provider. The proposed privatization process consists of a mix between selling assets, and offering concessions to private companies to run operations over the following 18 months.

Claims that privatization will create a quick fix to Puerto Rico's economic and electrical woes are based on optimistic assumptions not backed by evidence. In fact, Puerto Rico's own past experience is proof that privatization is no panacea for defective public utilities. Puerto Rico's Aqueduct and Sewer Authority (PRASA) has twice privatized the management of water services, as detailed in a report by Puerto Rico's Comptroller's Office. Both attempts had disastrous results.

In the 1990s, as Puerto Rico's water services struggled with quality and operational issues and PRASA's finances deteriorated, then-governor Pedro Rosselló (current governor Ricardo Rosselló's father) declared a state of emergency that cleared the way to seek a private water operator. The senior Rosselló then created a commission to negotiate a contract and oversee the privatization process. In 1995, in circumstances somewhat similar to those surrounding PREPA today, PRASA took its first step toward privatization when it entered into its first concession contract with a subsidiary of the French multinational Veolia.

After Veolia took over PRASA's responsibilities, its problems multiplied. Service quality deteriorated and prices for consumers increased, as did the agency's operational deficit. To make matters worse, Veolia was not complying with environmental regulations. The Environmental Protection Agency found that raw sewage was discharged into water sources, prompting fines and sanctions. PRASA was ill-equipped to oversee and enforce its contract with Veolia. For years, it complied with Veolia's requests for increased payments, despite the questionable quality of the company's services and its numerous violations. Puerto Rico's contract with Veolia ended in 2001 and was not renewed.

Despite the worsening infrastructure, environmental violations, and a large operational deficit that Veolia left behind, rather than retake public control over PRASA, Puerto Rican authorities took another route. They blamed the failed venture with Veolia on the specifics of that contract, not the inherent flaws in trying to fix a system in disrepair via privatization. Problems could simply be fixed through a better-negotiated deal, they said. Thus, the search for a different utility operator started, and the government sought to negotiate a contract that would finally address PRASA's issues. Officials bragged about the "complex negotiations" they led in order to select a contractor that would "bring operations to world-class standards."

In 2002, PRASA entered into a 10-year, $4 billion contract with Ondeo, a subsidiary of French multinational Suez. At the time, it was the largest contract to ever be awarded to a private water company. Ondeo assumed full responsibility for maintenance and repairs of existing assets, while also promising investments to improve infrastructure and assure compliance with environmental standards. This contract was praised at the time for also including clauses to assure compliance with its stated goals, and for bringing huge expected savings to the government.

In practice, things between PRASA and Ondeo worked out differently. Less than two years later, after numerous disputes and disagreements with Ondeo, PRASA paid the company a settlement to rescind the contract. Ondeo had repeatedly requested more money than allowed by the initial agreement with PRASA, and had also failed to update the system's infrastructure.

After the contract with Ondeo was terminated on terms unfavorable to PRASA, the agency retook control over the management of water services. This meant that a decade and hundreds of millions of dollars later, PRASA was in even worse shape than during the crisis that prompted privatization efforts. Both its infrastructure and its finances deteriorated further during this period.

In these cases, the contracts awarded by PRASA were lucrative for the private companies, but not for Puerto Rico's government or its consumers. The companies cashed in, but not only failed to make the new investments and improvements they initially promised, but also failed to manage basic aspects of the water system, such as properly maintaining existing infrastructure.

Arguments in favor of privatization generally emphasize the perceived increased efficiency in the private sector's ability to manage services due to profit incentives. But in the case of running a utility that is a monopoly, this dynamic does not necessarily translate into better service or savings for consumers. Rather, these case studies from Veolia and Ondeo demonstrate that a company can reduce services while raising prices. Puerto Rico's case is not unique, but rather part of a larger global pattern of utility privatizations that have failed to deliver on their promises.  

Somehow, this disastrous experience seems to have been quickly forgotten by the ardent proponents of privatizing PREPA. The governor has offered reassurance that the privatization process would take place under the close oversight of the agency in charge of regulating the utility, the Puerto Rico Energy Commission (PREC). Yet, the official plan for PREPA recently released by the government criticizes PREC, and recommends that a "reasonable regulatory process," not PREC, be created for the future private owners. Handing over a public utility to the private sector while simultaneously calling for less regulation is concerning at best.

The common narrative blames PREPA's operational struggles on mismanagement and corruption, and suggests that these problems can be addressed by simply privatizing the company. However, this view omits the overall context of Puerto Rico's economic decline and shrinking population. In response to a shrinking tax base, Puerto Rico's public sector borrowed massively to cover its expenses. Puerto Rico's public sector accumulated about $72 billion in debt, out of which $9 billion are bonds issued by PREPA. As the island's fiscal balance worsened in the last few years, efforts to reduceexpenses meant that the island skimped on basic maintenance of its infrastructure. When the storm hit, Puerto Rico was already particularly vulnerable. 

There is no doubt that PREPA is in dire need of reform, yet privatizing the utility is not guaranteed to actually solve any of its problems. Particularly given its poor infrastructure and massive debt burden, PREPA's privatization might require concessions that would be unfavorable in the long term. As Puerto Rico's past experiences have shown, savings promised by private operators do not always materialize. The priority now should be an overhaul of PREPA that establishes a strong and accountable regulator to oversee the process of rebuilding a more efficient and resilient electric grid to serve the people of Puerto Rico.


Lara Merling is a researcher at the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, DC.



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Trump’s Department of Labor suppresses an inconvenient fact re their tip-retention proposal. [feedly]

Trump's Department of Labor suppresses an inconvenient fact re their tip-retention proposal.
http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/department-of-labor-suppresses-an-inconvenient-fact/

[These are the comments I made on a press call just now about the revelations from this article by Ben Penn. He tells of how the Labor Dept. is denying the public access to its estimates regarding the costs to tipped workers of the Trump admin's proposed rule to let employers take the tips of minimum wage workers. Heidi Shierholz was also on the call–I recently interviewed her on this issue.]

I've developed an awfully high outrage bar over the past year, but this Dept. of Labor suppression of evidence incident clears it by a mile, for at least 3 reasons.

First, consider what this rule change goes after: The tips of minimum wage workers. I know of none–not one—bit of evidence that the fact the waitpersons get tips is an economic problem in America. To the contrary, tips are one way low-wage workers in tipped industries, many of whom these days are family breadwinners, meet their family budgets while holding minimum-wage jobs.

So, let's be clear. The Trump Labor Dept is doing the bidding of the Nat'l Rest Assoc, not low-wage workers. And trust me, we've already got a whole administration and Congressional majority that's tilted against working people. We don't need the DoL, an agency that is supposed to represent workers' needs, to pile on.

Second, while this rule is wholly unnecessary—tip-pooling arrangements are, of course, common—it would have been perfectly easy to write it in such a way as to prohibit employers from pocketing the tips. But the pen of the DoL was guided by the hand of the restaurant lobby, such that if this rule takes effect, employers will be able to legally pocket workers tips.

Finally, let's also be clear about what happened here. The DoL's analytic staff did what it always does in these situations—based on its best knowledge of the industry and the affected workers, it estimated the transfer costs of the rule. Then, as we understand it, political appointees didn't like the answer so they instructed the analysts to knock it down. They still didn't like the answer—and I should point out here that it is still the case that no one outside the DoL knows that answer—and so they buried it.

We are thus left with are two disturbing realities of politics in the Trump administration: a behind the scenes attack on economically vulnerable workers, and a willingness to dispose of inconvenient facts. History is replete with governments driven by these sorts of motivations, but I assure you, they are not called democracies.



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Thursday, February 1, 2018

Setting the Record Straight on Trump’s Black Unemployment Boast [feedly]

Setting the Record Straight on Trump's Black Unemployment Boast
http://prospect.org/article/setting-record-straight-on-trumps-black-unemployment-boast

(AP Photo/Atlanta Journal & Constitution, Bob Andres)

People wait in line during a job fair sponsored by the Congressional Black Caucus on August 18, 2011, in Atlanta.

One of Tuesday's State of the Union applause lines came when President Trump said, "Something I'm very proud of: African American unemployment stands at the lowest rate ever recorded." The same claim had been made days before, after rapper and business mogul Jay-Z expressed some cautionary comments about black prosperity on CNN's The Van Jones Show. The remarks prompted Trump to scold Jay-Z with a tweet claiming that his year-old administration was responsible for black unemployment being at a historic low.

On the eve of the State of the Union address, Erin Aubry Kaplan spoke with economist Steven Pitts about the president's claim. Pitts is the associate chair of the University of California, Berkeley's Center for Labor Research and Education; his field of focus is issues of job quality and African American workers.

Capital & Main is an award-winning publication that reports from California on economic, political and social issues. The American Prospect is co-publishing this piece.

Capital & Main: Can the Trump administration take any credit for the new low figures in black unemployment?

Steven Pitts: No. The downward trajectory of the black unemployment rate has many factors, but basically it's a function of the economic expansion of the last six or seven years—that's what we're seeing. It's not because of a policy enacted by Trump or even by Obama—that would be giving a single person too much credit. If there had been a sharp break in the trajectory—if it fell to 1 percent, say, in a short period of time—we could maybe say it was something someone did.

Did anything in Obama's eight years in office aid black employment specifically, or indirectly?

When Obama took office, all hell was breaking loose. A combination of his stimulus package—even though it was too little—actions taken by the Federal Reserve, and other factors helped to start expanding the economy after it bottomed out. We've had a steady upward trend since. The black unemployment rate has been falling since roughly June of 2011.

Lower unemployment for black folks is certainly good news, but there's a troubling story underneath the numbers. Do you see the story changing substantially anytime soon?

You're talking about job quality—what kinds of jobs people have and what kind of quality of life they help provide. So the unemployment rate is the lowest it's been since 1972. But basically, since the mid-1970s, we've had flat wage growth, and growth has been very, very slow for all folks. Of the top ten fastest growing occupations, seven or eight fall below the median wage in [California]. We see an expansion of jobs in the service sector—janitors, those sorts of things. Black people are also historically employed in the public sector, which is why the fate of the public sector is so important. We need to do two things: Maintain current levels of employment and fend off growing attacks on public-sector unions. One thing that made jobs good for black people was unionization.

We tend to see the black labor problem as another black/white disparity, another example of inequality. A lot of times our basic metric of black well-being is how big is [its] disparity with whites. But that's processing data wrong. If you ask a black person who's struggling how they're doing, they'll say OK, but they're not thinking about inequality or how they compare to white folks. Basic well-being is asking the questions, How are people living? Do they have good wages, good jobs? It's not complicated, but we don't tend to look at it this way. Not that inequality shouldn't be noted—it should. But that's not all we should look at.

What about the black middle class? We hear a lot about poverty and unemployment, but how are the technically better-off people faring?

The middle class is facing a lot of problems. Blacks were disproportionately hit by the subprime home-loan crisis, so if you're trying to buy a house in California, it's tough. They come out of college with huge debts, maybe have to take out a second mortgage. Their status is a function of three things: the trajectory of the economy, the government policies that impact that trajectory, and the state of community organizing—people power. Overall, things don't look good right now.

In his conversation with Van Jones, Jay-Z talked about the limits of black capitalism—he said that money doesn't make you "happy," meaning that a few black millionaires like himself can't solve deep problems of racial inequality, which includes employment. Do you agree?

Black capitalism is not part of the solution. Even if every black millionaire is willing, they can't help every black person in the world. The scale is insufficient to the problem. When we talk about black entrepreneurs, we tend to ignore other dimensions around the economy. We're never going to have a black Walmart, it's never going to happen. To the extent that small firms get beat down by Walmart, black firms get beat down, too. We aren't in a separate society. By the way, you have only one Walmart, not a lot of "white" Walmarts running around. We could talk about more black suppliers to Walmart, but that's determined by Walmart, and then you'd have to talk about their labor practices.

Rather than celebrate the low unemployment rate, should the president and other national leaders officially declare black employment a national crisis?

It is a national crisis. A president should represent all the people and respond to the crises of those people. But that's should. Reality is different.



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Urban Institute: Homeownership and the American Dream [feedly]

Homeownership and the American Dream
https://www.urban.org/research/publication/homeownership-and-american-dream
We take a detailed look at US homeownership from three different perspectives: 1) an international perspective, comparing US homeownership rates with those of other nations; 2) a demographic perspective, examining the correlation between changes in the US homeownership rate between 1985 and 2015 and factors like age, race/ethnicity, education, family status, and income; 3) and, a financial benefits perspective, which compares the internal rate of return to homeownership to other investments. Our overall conclusion: homeownership is a valuable institution. While two past policies may have put too much faith in the benefits of homeownership, the pendulum seems to have swung too far the other way, and many now may have too little faith in homeownership as part of the American Dream.
VISIT WEBSITE

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Trump Call to Limit Civil Service Protection Riles Democrats [feedly]

Trump Call to Limit Civil Service Protection Riles Democrats
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-31/trump-s-call-to-curtail-civil-service-protection-riles-democrats

Democrats and union leaders expressed alarm after President Donald Trump asked Congress in his State of the Union speech to make it easier for him to fire federal workers, a proposal that would undermine longstanding protections for U.S. civil servants.

J. David Cox, president of the American Federation of Government Employees, said Trump's call for more power over the federal workforce was "concerning" because it could allow Trump and his Cabinet to fire workers who have different political views.

"Obviously if you're running Trump Enterprises, in the private sector, you get to hire and fire anybody you want to," he said. "But we're running the United States of America that is governed by the Constitution."

Concerns about the vulnerability of federal employees to political pressure were highlighted this week after FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe announced he would step down following repeated public criticism by Trump.

The proposal was among several in the speech that undermined Trump's attempt to make a bipartisan appeal to the American public. As with his demand to curtail immigrants' ability to sponsor relatives for entry into the U.S., the stance targets a constituency important to Democratic lawmakers.

"I was particularly disturbed that the President chose to demagogue hard-working federal employees, who are already being asked to do more with less with every passing year in service to their country,'' Democratic Senator Mark Warner of Virginia said Tuesday in a statement responding to Trump's speech. Many of Warner's constituents in the capital's suburbs are federal employees.

Trump cast a curtailment of civil service protections as a long overdue measure to make federal workers more responsive.

"All Americans deserve accountability and respect -- and that is what we are giving them," Trump said in his State of the Union speech. "So tonight, I call on the Congress to empower every Cabinet Secretary with the authority to reward good workers -- and to remove Federal employees who undermine the public trust or fail the American people."

Trump has long sought to exert more power over the federal workforce despite laws and regulations that protect civil servants from being swiftly dismissed from their jobs. Trump has left hundreds of federal positions vacant, and has said he wants to scale back the size of the government workforce.

During the speech, Trump referred to the VA Accountability Act, a bill he signed last year that makes it easier for officials to fire workers at the Department of Veterans Affairs. Trump boasted that more than 1,500 employees have been dismissed from the VA since then.

In April, Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney sent out a memo describing a plan for "reforming the federal government and reducing the federal civilian workforce."

"Agencies should determine whether their current policies and practices are barriers to hiring and retaining the workforce necessary to execute their missions as well appropriately managing and, if necessary, removing poor performers," Mulvaney wrote in the memo.

Several federal agencies have started internal reviews to consider restructuring or downsizing.

At the State Department, Secretary Rex Tillerson has said his restructuring effort is a top priority. Several career diplomats have opted to retire and many key posts have been left unfilled a year into Trump's tenure.

Trump proposed cutting the budget for the Environmental Protection Agency by 30 percent last year, including cutting hundreds of jobs.

There are several laws that protect federal workers from being easily dismissed. Career civil servants can't be fired without cause or for politically-motivated reasons. Of more than 2 million federal workers, only 3,489 were dismissed for performance issues in 2013, according to a 2015 report by the Government Accountability Office.

Prior to the Pendleton Civil Service Reform Act of 1883 and subsequent laws that expanded the civil service system, federal government jobs were often doled out by the political party controlling the White House to reward supporters and their friends and relatives. The patronage system had been widely criticized for incompetence, corruption and bribery in the federal workforce and the reform was instituted after a disappointed office-seeker assassinated President James Garfield in 1881.

Representative Todd Rokita, a Republican from Indiana, proposed legislation last year that would make all new federal employees "at-will" workers eligible for removal without the right to appeal. The bill has not yet been approved by Congress.



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Wednesday, January 31, 2018

Art Perlo:A quiet Wall Street coup-de-etat pulled off in Connecticut

Thought you might be interested in my most recent story. Although it deals with CT,  I wouldn't be surprised to see this cropping up in other states. Maybe it already has -- if so, please let me know. Thanks. --Art Perlo

http://www.peoplesworld.org/article/a-quiet-wall-street-coup-de-etat-pulled-off-in-connecticut/

"The most immediate priority is to urge the repeal of the bond lock, before it goes into effect in May. Once that happens, it will be far more difficult to fix Connecticut's regressive tax and spending priorities."
A quiet Wall Street coup-de-etat pulled off in                      Connecticut
Rally against budget cuts at state capitol. | Art Perlo/PW

A quiet coup-de-etat has taken place in Connecticut. The legislature has effectively turned over control of the state to Wall Street. This was the conclusion I drew from a presentation by Connecticut Voices for Children.

After four months without a budget in the summer and fall of 2017, the state's legislature and governor reached a budget deal. Ruling out any new taxes on the rich or giant corporations, the budget increased taxes on middle and lower income working people, imposed further cuts on public workers including a special tax on teachers, and continued years of austerity cuts to almost every state program.

But that wasn't enough for the corporate forces. As part of the budget deal, they got four stealth provisions. Together, they not only enact austerity in this budget — they cast austerity policies in concrete. And — they bind four handcuffs of gold on future governors and legislators by making it legally impossible to undo the damage!

The Four Golden Handcuffs

1) Spending cap. A spending cap was written into the state constitution in 1989. It means that state spending can never grow faster than inflation or personal income. Then, in 2017, the legislature tightened the cap to apply to additional forms of spending. Some implications:

  • Aid to distressed municipalities will now fall under the cap. If the state helps a struggling city, it will have to cut education, or state parks, or children's services by an equal amount.
  • Contributions to the state workers' and the teachers'  retirement funds will fall under the cap after 2022 and 2026. Each of these funds is likely to require substantial increases in contributions. The cap will require that those increases be balanced by equal cuts elsewhere. In one not-unlikely scenario, up to $4 billion — about 20% — would have to be cut from the general fund.

2) Volatility cap. If the state gets larger-than-last-year revenue from certain income tax receipts, it is not allowed to spend that money. Instead, the extra must be deposited in the state's "rainy day fund." This cap applies only to "estimated and final" income tax returns — the quarterly returns filed mainly by wealthy people, including most income from dividends and capital gains.

This sounds sensible. Dividends and capital gains income fluctuates from year to year. The cap means that extra income this year can go to cover a shortfall next year. But there's a catch.

The volatility cap applies to all increases, instead of unexpected increases. For example, the legislature could tax dividends and capital gains, recovering some of the huge giveaway the Republican/Trump tax law gave to rich people. The additional revenue would not be unexpected, but it would still fall under the cap — the state would not be allowed to spend it!

Taxes paid by working families do not fall under the cap. If the state needs to raise more revenue to cover budget shortfalls, it can increase the sales tax, or the income tax on wages (which is paid through witholding, not through  "estimated and final" returns). The additional revenue could be used normally. But taxes on the rich are mainly collected through "estimated and final" returns, and therefore could not be used.

So the volatility cap as implemented encourages an even more regressive tax system which shifts the burden from the rich to everyone else.

3) Bond cap. This was already in place, but new rules make it stronger. This is a hard limit of $1.9 billion on issuing bonds. The amount can be increased each year only by an inflation adjustment. What if there is an emergency infrastructure need? Or what if there is an economic crisis as in 2008, when interest rates are extremely low and there are idle resources and high unemployment? That is an excellent time to increase public spending on infrastructure — but the bonding cap would prevent it.

4) Bond Lock. This is the real poison pill. Beginning in May 2018,  every new bond issued by the state will include a pledge not to change other caps. That completely ties the legislature's hands. Suppose a future governor and legislature is elected on the pledge to enact a millionaire's tax to deal with spiking pension costs (not a bad idea!). That would violate both the spending cap and the volatility cap. Presumably, Wall Street bondholders could get a court injunction to stop us.

This goes even beyond anything we have seen before. Even when technical problems are found in the legislation (as is almost always the case), it will be impossible to fix them. The bond lock makes a mockery of our elections and the right to vote. We can elect anyone we want, but effective control of the state will be turned over to the big investors who buy Connecticut bonds.

The Fallacy

All of these measures are sold on the premise that Connecticut is in trouble because irresponsible lawmakers have spent money they didn't have, borrowed too much, and made promises for future generations to keep. Therefore, it is necessary for legislators to tie their own hands. Despite grains of truth, those arguments miss the major causes of Connecticut's crisis, and therefore offer the wrong cure.

The money Connecticut has spent and promised has overwhelmingly gone to meet real needs. In fact, in a state with one in eight children living below poverty, with vast inequality in education, with a growing backlog of transportation infrastructure maintenance — to meet the needs of the state's residents and secure our future, there should be more spending, not less.

The legislature's failure has been to allow a regressive tax structure to continue. The wealthiest households face a state and local tax burden that is about half the rate paid by the rest of the residents. If the rich had been paying the same tax rates as everyone else, pensions could have been fully funded, debt would be lower, and there would be no crisis. If the rich started paying their share now, Connecticut could end its austerity policies and begin to restore services and investments.

There are a number of useful and possible reforms in how the state spends money. But without increased revenue from those who can afford it, those reforms would have little effect. And "reforms" like the golden handcuffs — the spending cap, bond cap, volatility cap and bond lock — only make matters worse by making it almost impossible to raise and spend the needed revenue.

Conclusion

Over the next ten years, Connecticut faces increased costs. The golden handcuffs adopted in 2017 guarantee a sharply shrinking pie for operation of the state: education, children, elderly, health care, public safety. The effects will be felt from state parks to DMV offices. When we call to complain, there will be no workers left to answer the phones.

We will see continuing attacks on public workers and public services, and increased pressure to turn over everything — schools, transportation, public safety — to private corporations for their own profit. Everyone (except the very wealthy) will be pitted against one another for a rapidly shrinking slice of the pie.

Unions, the DUE Justice Coalition, advocacy groups like CT Voices for Children, and progressive state legislators are advancing positive alternatives.

The most immediate priority is to urge the repeal of the bond lock, before it goes into effect in May. Once that happens, it will be far more difficult to fix Connecticut's regressive tax and spending priorities.



--
John Case
Harpers Ferry, WV

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Dan Little: Declining industries [feedly]

Declining industries
http://understandingsociety.blogspot.com/2018/01/declining-industries.html

Why is it so difficult for leaders in various industries and sectors to seriously address the existential threats that sometimes arise? Planning for marginal changes in the business environment is fairly simple; problems can be solved, costs can be cut, and the firm can stay in the black. But how about more radical but distant threats? What about the grocery sector when confronted by Amazon's radical steps in food selling? What about Polaroid or Kodak when confronted by the rise of digital photography in the 1990s? What about the US steel industry in the 1960s when confronted with rising Asian competition and declining manufacturing facilities?

From the outside these companies and sectors seem like dodos incapable of confronting the threats that imperil them. They seem to be ignoring oncoming train wrecks simply because these catastrophes are still in the distant future. And yet the leaders in these companies were generally speaking talented, motivated men and women. So what are the organizational or cognitive barriers that arise to make it difficult for leaders to successfully confront the biggest threats they face?

Part of the answer seems to be the fact that distant hazards seem smaller than the more immediate and near-term challenges that an organization must face; so there is a systematic bias towards myopic decision-making. This sounds like a Kahneman-Tversky kind of cognitive shortcoming.

A second possible explanation is that it is easy enough to persuade oneself that distant threats will either resolve themselves organically or that the organization will discover novel solutions in the future. This seems to be part of the reason that climate-change foot-draggers take the position they do: that "things will sort out", "new technologies will help solve the problems in the future." This sounds like a classic example of weakness of the will -- an unwillingness to rationally confront hard truths about the future that ought to influence choices today but often don't.

Then there is the timeframe of accountability that is in place in government, business, and non-profit organizations alike. Leaders are rewarded and punished for short-term successes and failures, not prudent longterm planning and preparation. This is clearly true for term-limited elected officials, but it is equally true for executives whose stakeholders evaluate performance based on quarterly profits rather than longterm objectives and threats. 

We judge harshly those leaders who allow their firms or organizations to perish because of a chronic failure to plan for substantial change in the environments in which they will need to operate in the future. Nero is not remembered kindly for his dedication to his fiddle. And yet at any given time, many industries are in precisely that situation. What kind of discipline and commitment can protect organizations against this risk?

This is an interesting question in the abstract. But it is also a challenging question for people who care about the longterm viability of colleges and universities. Are there forces at work today that will bring about existential crisis for universities in twenty years (enrollments, tuition pressure, technology change)? Are there technological or organizational choices that should be made today that would help to avert those crises in the future? And are university leaders taking the right steps to prepare their institutions for the futures they will face in several decades?

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