Tuesday, August 2, 2016

Baker: Homeownership Drop is Bad News, but Not for the Reason You Think [feedly]

Homeownership Drop is Bad News, but Not for the Reason You Think
http://cepr.net/publications/op-eds-columns/homeownership-drop-is-bad-news-but-not-for-the-reason-you-think

The homeownership rate fell again in the second quarter of 2016, hitting the lowest rate in more than 50 years, more than 6 full percentage points below the peak bubble years. This is both good news and bad news.

It is good news because homeownership is not always good for everyone at all points in their lives. The building, banking and real estate industry have worked hard to make renting seem un-American. While homeownership can be a useful way for families to accumulate wealth, it's not generally advisable for people not in a stable employment and family situation.

The transaction costs associated with buying and selling a home are roughly 10 percent of the sales price, which comes to almost $25,000 for a typical home. This is a lot of money to throw away for someone who has to move after a year or two because of losing a job or a family break-up. Of course the lost money to the homeowner is income for bankers and realtors.

The other reason it might be a good thing to see a declining homeownership rate is that it seems some markets are again rising into bubble territory. The bottom third by sales price of homes in Miami saw a 55.6 percent price increase over the last three years. By contrast, rents have risen just 10.4 percent. In Chicago the price of the bottom third of homes increased by 40.7 percent in the last three years, while rents rose by 6.9 percent.

There are several other cities in which prices in the less expensive segment of the market are rising precipitously. It would be a good thing if moderate income families didn't buy into bubble inflated markets yet again.

The bad side is: The main reason people are not buying homes does not have to do with them having better insight into the nature of the housing market. According to the Census Bureau, earnings for the median male worker still have not recovered to their pre-recession level, while earnings for women are just trivially higher more than seven years later. Furthermore, the employment rate for prime age workers (ages 25 to 54) is still down by almost three percentage points from the pre-recession level.

If families were deciding that it was better to put their money elsewhere rather than buy a home we would be seeing more rapid growth in their holdings of other financial assets. We in fact see the opposite. The Federal Reserve Board's 2013 Survey of Consumer Finance, the most recent one available, shows that assets outside of housing are down sharply from pre-recession levels for all age brackets. Clearly people are not opting to put their money elsewhere; they just don't have the money.

This is clearly a bad story. It's made worse by the fact that the biggest drops in homeownership are for African-Americans, who are again being hardest hit by a weak economy. It will be good if families can make informed decisions between renting and owning, but it will be even better when more of them actually have this choice.


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Free trade in moral hypocrisy [feedly]

I sympathize with the outrage at phonies about the losers in trade, but the article is ruined for me by the abuse of the term "neoliberalism", which, I submit means absolutely nothing except on left left pubs where it is just a fig leaf for not having to say the word "capitalism" too many times. What is a Non-neo-liberal position on trade, for example?


Jeff Faux: EPI:  Free trade in moral hypocrisy

A version of this article appeared in the Globalist.

U.S. trade policy of the last 20 years, if not dead, is on life- support. The economic case for the series of neoliberal trade deals since the North American Free Trade Agreement has collapsed in the wake of job losses, lower wages and shrinking opportunities for American workers. Voters are hostile, and both candidates for President oppose the latest proposed trade pact—the Trans Pacific Partnership.

But neoliberal trade deals have brought enormous profits to America's multinational corporate investors. So, big business lobbyists and their champions in the Congress and the Administration are organizing to pass the TPP in the post-election lame duck session—regardless of who wins the election.

With their economic arguments discredited, they are now draping these trade and investment pacts with a mantle of moral superiority. American workers who complain are now told that they should be ashamed of themselves. Why? Because off-shoring their jobs helps workers in other counties who are even poorer.

Paul Krugman tells his New York Times readers that they should support "open world markets…mainly because market access is so important to poor countries."

Read more


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Worst recovery in post-war era largely explained by cuts in government spending

Worst recovery in post-war era largely explained by cuts in government spending

Re: [socialist-econ] Are wealth and power the same?

With Flanders being autonomous and with such high per capita income I wonder how that wealth is generated and, more importantly to me, how it is distributed.

Sent from my iPad

On Aug 2, 2016, at 4:12 AM, John Case <jcase4218@gmail.com> wrote:

http://econospeak.blogspot.com/2016/08/wealth-and-power-does-one-necessarily.html?m=1

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Glass Ceiling and Class Ceiling: Can Hillary Smash Both? [feedly]

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Glass Ceiling and Class Ceiling: Can Hillary Smash Both?
// The American Prospect

AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File

In this July 30, 2016 file photo, Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks in Youngstown, Ohio. 

A version of this story appeared at The Huffington Post.

Bernie Sanders might be the best thing that ever happened to Hillary Clinton. I don't just mean persuading most of his delegates not to walk out.

Think about it. Without the Sanders campaign, Clinton would be running mainly on three things—her exceptional experience, her breakthrough status as the first woman president, and her embrace of the cultural left that so dominated the Democratic National Convention.

All three elements have as many negatives as positives. Clinton may be the most qualified candidate ever to run for president, but her experience includes some awkward baggage. The first potential woman president runs into headwinds of misogyny, personified by Donald Trump. And the cultural left risks alienating as many voters as it mobilizes.

What Sanders added was to push Clinton and her allies, sometimes kicking and screaming, to advocate a far more progressive pocketbook program. On economics, Clinton has begun to move well beyond her comfort zone—to attack Wall Street, to call for breaking up big predatory banks, to tax the rich to pay for needed infrastructure and jobs, even to challenge dubious trade deals.

All this is the necessary antidote to the risks of what used to be called identity politics. And she needs to do a lot more.

With more of that emphasis, Clinton can securely carry swing states like Ohio and Pennsylvania. Without it, she remains vulnerable.

The narrative of cultural mosaic has been contested territory for Democrats at least since the 1970s. The Democratic Leadership Council was founded in part to push Democrats to the center-right on issues like national defense and social spending, but also to discourage Democrats from campaigning as a rainbow made up of separate group identities. What emerged in 2008 and 2016 as a splendid tapestry was disparaged by the DLC in the 1980s as a tangle of narrow interest groups that alienated regular Americans.

In a famous 1989 paper, DLC theorists William Galston and Elaine Kamarck wrote: "The real problem is not insufficient liberalism on the part of the Democratic nominees; it is rather the fact that during the last two decades, most Democratic nominees have come to be seen as unacceptably liberal."

The DLC lost that fight, big time. The Democratic base is more liberal than ever, and the party has moved left—but left on what?

Barack Obama's election and re-election, and continued emphasis of such issues as LGBT rights and immigrant rights certified that the cultural left had won. The separate identities now make up a broad coalition. Unfortunately, however, the DLC and its progeny won on such pocketbook issues as deficit reduction, alliance with Wall Street, disrespect for unions, support for corporate trade deals, and acceptance of lousy jobs and pay.

The mosaic of cultural pluralism on display in Philadelphia was nothing short of astonishing. Lesbian, gay, and transgender people at the podium, joined by Americans with disabilities, immigrants without documentation; lots of black, Latino, and Asian American speakers; proud, even fierce feminism. All of this is cause for great celebration.

Yet, despite the projections of America as a majority/minority country, despite growing acceptance of same-sex marriage, in the present electorate that tapestry by itself doesn't quite add up to an automatic election win for Hillary Clinton. If it did, a person like Donald Trump would not be running even with Clinton in the polls.

Being culturally avant-garde and economically status quo doesn't do it.

Here in the progressive bubble, the Philadelphia parade felt joyous. But for tens of millions of American workers and their families, the embrace of undocumented immigrants and LGBT rights suggests a Democratic Party that is on a different planet. If Clinton can start sounding as emphatic on the pocketbook issues as she did on all the other issues, then Democrats can begin savoring a victory over Trump, maybe even a crushing one.

Another stunning thing about the Democratic National Convention was the sheer, glorious feminism of it. All spring and most of the summer, the fact that Bernie Sanders stole the hearts of the young denied Clinton some of the drama and appeal that she deserved.

Now, as Sanders both stood aside and vowed to continue to fight for pocketbook issues, the power of electing the first woman president could start to command the excitement that it hasn't quite had until now. Based on a small sample, plenty of young voters, especially young women voters whose first choice was Sanders, are genuinely moved and exhilarated by the Clinton who they saw at the convention.

Having doubled down on her feminism—from the white dress of the suffragists to the somewhat overplayed "Fight Song" and the display of strong womanhood at the convention—Clinton will need the largest turnout of women and the biggest gender gap in history. But she will also need more than a few good men.

Her campaign gestured towards the fact that it isn't just blacks and immigrants and LGBT people who are suffering in America today. There was acknowledgement of general pocketbook distress in her acceptance speech, but not enough. Her three-day post-convention bus tour through the two must-win states of Pennsylvania and Ohio provided more emphasis but did not get enough national press.

Trump is vulnerable on several grounds. One is his lack of specifics; another is his hypocrisy. On pocketbook issues, Clinton needs to show up Trump by being both very specific and a lot bolder than her recent predecessors.

For too long, the Democratic Party of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama has addressed the calamitous downward slide of America's working people with gestures and with policies too feeble to make enough of a difference. At the same time, that Democratic Party, especially at the presidential level, has gotten into bed with Wall Street.

Barack Obama, passing the torch to Hillary Clinton, delivered one of the greatest presidential convention speeches ever, pointing to both ideals and accomplishments. The contrast with Donald Trump could not be greater. Yet by a margin of 73 to 18, most Americans say that the country is going in the wrong direction. Thus Donald Trump.

For the liberal elite, life is sweet indeed. The food is better than ever, the cities are more vibrant, the technology cooler.

But life isn't sweet at all for the broad working class. To win big, Hillary needs to be their champion, too.

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Unions Flex Political Muscle at the DNC -- But Uber and Airbnb Lurk [feedly]

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Unions Flex Political Muscle at the DNC -- But Uber and Airbnb Lurk
// The American Prospect

Randi Weingarten, President of AFT speaks as Lee Saunders, President of AFSCME applauds during the first day of the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia , Monday, July 25, 2016. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Labor unions' fingerprints were all over last week's Democratic National Convention, sending a clear reminder to the party faithful that—despite decades of waning membership—unions are still a critical component of the Democratic Party. From convention speeches to sponsored events, unions made the case for their role as both the party's foremost advocate of its most progressive policies and as its most effective foil against pseudo-populist Donald Trump.

On the first night of the convention—largely reserved for the left wing of the party—a lineup of leaders from the country's most powerful unions railed against Trump. "Donald made millions while he ripped off workers and small businesses with his unfair business practices—remember, he ended up bankrupting his companies not once, not twice, but four times," Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers and a longtime Clinton ally, declared in a fiery speech. "And his economic ideas will make millionaires like him richer at the expense of the middle class."

"He thinks he's a tough guy," said Richard Trumka, head of the AFL-CIO, which has long been calling out Trump for the hypocrisy of his working-class message. "Well, Donald, I worked in the mines with tough guys. I know tough guys, they're friends of mine. And Donald, you're no tough guy. You're a phony." 

Perhaps the most prominent union at the convention was the Service Employees International Union, which boasts nearly two million members. On the Sunday before the convention started, the union held a reception at the historic Benjamin Franklin Institute in downtown Philadelphia. Delegates and union allies dined on hors d'oeuvres and milled around an open bar as they listened to prominent Democratic politicians like Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolf and Senate hopeful Katie McGinty praise SEIU's work in the state.

Throughout the convention, the union's most successful campaign—the Fight for 15—was on center stage. On the final night of the convention, Michigan home-care worker and Fight for 15 activist Henrietta Ivey spoke about the importance of improving working conditions in the booming home-care industry. "Even as I work my fingers to the bone, I don't always feel the support I need from the leaders I'm supposed to trust. I work two jobs at minimum wage and can barely make ends meet," Ivey said. "For me, and all home-care workers across the nation, and my family, this is personal. I know Hillary Clinton has our backs, and we will have hers."

Earlier in the day, the union held a panel on the importance of creating high standards for workers in the industry, which, as it rapidly grows, faces a massive labor shortage. "Home-care workers are professionals, and that's what you should be called and how you should be treated," U.S. Labor Secretary Tom Perez said at the panel. "We live in a world of false choices. It is not either a choice of having a caregiver or paying the caregiver well. We need to build the number of caregivers, and we're not going to do it when we pay so little."

In the days before the convention was set to begin, Philadelphia airport workers had voted to go on strike. Behind the scenes, SEIU flexed its muscle and lobbied prominent Democratic delegates and officials to pressure American Airlines to sit down with its local 32BJ in Philadelphia to discuss a path to unionization for its subcontracted airport workers. American succumbed to the pressure and began negotiations with 32BJ, averting the threatened strike. SEIU's effort to organize airport workers has become a cornerstone of its Fight for 15 campaign.

Meanwhile, the teachers unions, American Federation of Teachers and the National Education Association, held an event on the importance of education policy in the upcoming election, and the AFL-CIO led daily labor council meetings for union delegates, who numbered roughly one-quarter of the convention's 4,000-plus delegates.

One important by-product of Bernie Sanders's campaign was that unions won important concessions in the party's platform, which called for raising the federal minimum wage to $15 and included radically different language on trade than past platforms. Seeking to head off a convention collision between Sanders and Clinton forces, AFSCME President Lee Saunders prompted the Clinton camp to accept an amendment to the platform, drafted by the AFL-CIO, that condemned the secrecy in which trade deals are drafted, and the system of private courts (the ISDS process) used to resolve corporate-state disputes. While not repudiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership by name (something President Obama wouldn't countenance), the amendment repudiated a number of its key particulars.

Still, there were stark reminders that labor has struggled to keep at bay the party's coziness with corporations, especially those of the Silicon Valley disruption variety. At the convention, the so-called sharing economy loomed large. Ride-hailing giant Uber—not unionized taxi cabs—served as the DNC's exclusive shuttle service, setting up a temporary lounge outside Wells Fargo Arena where riders could hang out as an endless flow of drivers snaked through the traffic to pick them up. Inside the lounge, on big-screen TVs, Uber drivers talked about how the app had given them a newfound sense of economic security. Labor advocates, however, have derided the company for flouting labor law, treating drivers poorly, and resisting unionization drives. Just one day after the convention, The Verge reported that Uber had hired a CIA-linked research firm to dig into union politics in Seattle, which recently passed a law allowing Uber drivers to unionize.

"Home-sharing" company Airbnb also had a big presence at the DNC as it sought to win over skeptical Democrats, including politicians in some liberal big cities who have made it harder for the company to operate. The company is facing allegations of racial discrimination and of negatively impacting the affordable housing supply. Still, of the nearly 40,000 people in Philadelphia for the convention, the company says 7,000 stayed in Airbnb properties, compared with 14,000 who booked hotels. Unions like UNITE-HERE contend that Airbnb is an illegal operation that takes business away from the hotels that many of its members work in. (UNITE-HERE and SEIU had a brief snafu earlier this year when SEIU announced it was partnering with Airbnb to ensure housekeepers were paid $15 an hour. Amid protest from UNITE-HERE, the union swiftly backtracked.)

The company made a hard sell at the convention, releasing a report that asserted that 80 percent of Millennials support Airbnb legally operating in their city, while not so subtly reminding Democrats that many of these young people live in swing states. It also made a five-figure ad buy during the convention to gin up support for its fight to expand in New York City. 

Uber and Airbnb also hosted a panel on the sharing economy featuring Chris Lehane, former aide to Bill Clinton and Airbnb's policy guru; former Obama campaign manager and Uber adviser David Plouffe; and former Philadelphia mayor/sharing-economy enthusiast Michael Nutter. These prominent Democrats discussed how they see the sharing economy as an asset for the middle class and can help reduce income inequality.

The battle between the labor wing and the Silicon Valley wing of the party will likely escalate in coming years, but for now labor will remain the stronger force. "Sharing economy" giants like Uber and Airbnb are just now dipping their toes into politics—and, for now, mostly at the local level. On the other hand, the major labor unions have already pledged to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on ads and ground operations to help Hillary Clinton—and Democratic Senate candidates like Katie McGinty in Pennsylvania, Ted Strickland in Ohio, and Russ Feingold in Wisconsin—win the working-class vote in swing states.

Those efforts, labor leaders hope, will not only earn unions significant clout should a Clinton win the White House, but a big say in the future direction of the party. 

 

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A Power Broker Who Wants Labor at the Table, Not on the Menu [feedly]

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A Power Broker Who Wants Labor at the Table, Not on the Menu
// Portside

lee Saunders, President of the 1.6 million American Federation of State, County and Municipal Workers is not only a major leader in the AFL-CIO, but one of the prime supporters of Secretary Hillary Clinton.

WASHINGTON — The person at the center of defusing arguably the most contentious issue facing Democrats on the eve of their convention in Philadelphia was not a Hillary Clinton adviser or even a party operative. It was Lee Saunders, president of the 1.6-million-member American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees.

With aides to Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont threatening a floor fight over the issue of trade, President Obama still hoping to ratify the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the 12-nation trade pact his administration negotiated, and Mrs. Clinton caught in the middle, Mr. Saunders led the effort to broker a final compromise.

The Democratic platform would stay silent on the prospect of a T.P.P. vote in Congress, which the Sandernistas had sought to rule out, but "oppose trade agreements that do not support good American jobs, raise wages and improve our national security."

Senator Sanders's staff deemed the language strong enough to avoid a floor debate, if not strong enough for their liking. The change helped save Mrs. Clinton much stress on an issue that has helped propel Donald J. Trump among white working-class voters in key states like Ohio and Pennsylvania.

At a time when Afscme and other public sector unions have come under relentless pressure from conservative activists and politicians — "probably the most perilous moment the public sector labor movement has faced since its emergence in the '60s and '70s," said Joseph A. McCartin, a labor historian at Georgetown University — Mr. Saunders is emerging as an increasingly important Washington power broker.

His union's support for Mrs. Clinton during the Democratic primaries, especially in Iowa, proved crucial to helping her win the nomination. Mr. Saunders is one of the architects of a new "super PAC" seeded with tens of millions of dollars from unions and the wealthy environmentalist Tom Steyer that aims to help elect progressive candidates this fall and in the future.

"We talked for a long period of time about how to work together to build a stronger progressive coalition," said Mr. Steyer, adding that he had hosted Mr. Saunders and his wife at his San Francisco home and found him to be "a lot of fun to be around."

Notwithstanding Mr. Saunders's opposition to the president's trade agenda, top administration officials regularly solicit his input on economic policy. "Lee is a great friend of the president's and a great friend of mine," said Valerie Jarrett, a senior adviser to Mr. Obama, by email. The president has even been known to quote Mr. Saunders. "He was very taken with Lee's observation that if you're not at the table, you're on the menu," said Thomas E. Perez, the labor secretary.

Yet for public sector unions, which count just over one-third of government workers as members, Washington influence may no longer have the same currency it did in earlier decades. Governors in states like Wisconsin, Ohio and Illinois have sought to scale back the public unions' right to bargain for increases in benefits and, in some cases, wages. Groups financed by right-wing donors have brought a hail of lawsuits threatening the unions' ability to finance themselves through mandatory fees on workers.

Such is the climate that public unions now worry about suffering the same debilitating bleed as private sector unions, whose membership has dwindled from about 25 percent of workers in the early 1970s to under 7 percent today.

If Mrs. Clinton wins this fall, Mr. Saunders may gain an even closer ally in the Oval Office. Certainly the Supreme Court would be more favorable than under a President Trump. But given that some of the greatest threats to public unions emanate far from Washington, is someone best known for navigating the city's corridors of power their most promising savior?

On an unseasonably cold afternoon in May, Mr. Saunders was seated next to a bank of tables at a child services facility in Cleveland when one of the workers listening to him discourse on their union piped up suddenly: "I have no idea who you are. Can you introduce yourself?"

If you happen to run one of the largest organizations in the country, you might be tempted to respond to such a question with thinly concealed annoyance. Mr. Saunders's immediate predecessor, Gerald W. McEntee, who built the union into a Washington force during his three decades as president, was famous for such outbursts.

Instead, Mr. Saunders played the situation for laughs. "You don't know who I am?" he said in mock outrage. Then he deadpanned: "I'm thinking about joining the union. I wanted to hear from you guys as far as why I should do it."

It is hardly the only way Mr. Saunders differs from his immediate predecessor.

Mr. McEntee alienated members with his heavy-handed decision-making — including ramming through a 2007 endorsement of Mrs. Clinton for president even though many senior officials thought Mr. Obama deserved more time to make his case — and nursed blood feuds with rival unions.

Above all, longtime Afscme officials say, Mr. McEntee grew less interested in nurturing his rank-and-file members, preferring to build the union's power mostly through political spending. A former aide challenged that view, however, saying Mr. McEntee cared about cultivating the grass roots, but the urgency simply was not as great until the last few years.

When Mr. Saunders ran for secretary-treasurer, the union's second-ranking position, in 2010, his association with Mr. McEntee — for whom he had worked since the 1980s, ultimately rising to become a top aide — aroused intense suspicion. He eked out a victory by 4,000 votes out of more than a million cast, then won a fairly close race to succeed Mr. McEntee upon his retirement in 2012. He was re-elected by acclamation last week.

But almost from the moment he won that second election, Mr. Saunders made a point of distinguishing himself from his predecessor. He put former dissidents on crucial committees and began a rapprochement with the Service Employees International Union, Mr. McEntee's onetime nemesi

Most significant has been his attention to the rank and file, which includes people as diverse as school cafeteria workers to corrections officers.

In late 2014, he started Afscme Strong, an effort to have union officials and activists conduct open-ended conversations with one million members, the better to create a sense of belonging and to gin up local activism for facing down employers or participating in local political and legislative campaigns.

It is an ambitious undertaking, requiring an investment of millions of dollars. But labor experts say building such cohesion is essential in an era where public sector unions are under assault by politicians like Wisconsin's Republican governor, Scott Walker.

Shortly after Mr. Walker started his campaign against public unions in 2011, some Madison-area labor leaders realized their options for responding, for example, with a strike, were limited because many public-sector unions in the state had grown so remote from their members they were barely in touch with them.

"You'd have to have an activate-able — if that's a word — rank and file," said Harry Richardson, a longtime labor activist and member of the Afscme local in Madison. "And that just didn't exist."

Mr. Saunders's new program is already paying dividends in this regard. According to Ben Gordon, the organizing director of the Afscme affiliate in upstate New York, the affiliate is seeing an increase in activism among its members. "We've had big rallies, done smaller work-site meetings, turned it into a way to settle contracts that have been open for a while in a difficult negotiation," Mr. Gordon said.

In late 1998, Mr. McEntee dispatched Mr. Saunders to New York City to become the administrator of District Council 37, the umbrella body for 56 locals in the city with about 120,000 members. Several leaders of the council and the local unions were on the verge of being indicted on charges of taking kickbacks and embezzlement totaling millions of dollars, and fixing a vote on a contract with the city.

Though Mr. Saunders's first priority was to root out corruption, which he accomplished swiftly, his most impressive achievement may have been helping to turn out tens of thousands of municipal workers and community activists in a protest against Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani and Gov. George E. Pataki in the spring of 1999.

Afscme officials insist the roughly 4 percent annual pay increases he later negotiated would never have been possible had Mr. Saunders not mobilized his members. "The mayor understood what the mayor needed to understand, that we would not deal from a position of weakness but a position of strength," said Eliot Seide, Mr. Saunders's No. 2 at the council.

And yet, for all his obvious faith in grass-roots activism, Mr. Saunders remains very much an institutionalist, at ease working within the system.

Even the enormous 1999 demonstration reflected a certain established protocol. "It did not annoy us — demonstrations are part of the fabric of the city of New York," said Robert M. Harding, a deputy mayor at the time. To this day, Mr. Harding keeps a photo in his office of himself flanked by Mr. Saunders and Mayor Giuliani announcing their contract.

"Maybe I wouldn't call myself a bomb thrower, but I would call myself someone who wants to effectuate change," Mr. Saunders said when asked about his method. "I'm willing to go about doing it through a strategy that I feel most comfortable with. And that's walking with crowds, but it's also talking with very, very important people."

Much of Mr. Saunders's time in Washington has played out in similar fashion, revealing a man whose goals are strongly progressive but who, even if he doesn't defer to the powers that be, shies away from making life too uncomfortable for them.

When I asked whether his intervention had undermined liberals' last best hope of defeating T.P.P., Mr. Saunders said the language he proposed included "the strongest standards" a Democratic platform has ever endorsed on trade. He argued that if the president wants to send the Pacific trade deal to Congress between the election and next year's inauguration, no party platform would stop him.

Likewise for some of Mr. Saunders's efforts to reinvigorate his union. In addition to its more open-ended outreach to members, the union had a market research firm spend several months last year canvassing them through surveys, focus groups and up-close observation, then asked the Washington firm GMMB to translate the findings into a branding effort, known as the "Never Quit" campaign.

One crucial insight was that Afscme members want to be treated as individuals, not part of some undifferentiated mass of workers. The union, at GMMB's recommendation, developed an award program to recognize workers' commitment to their job.

It seemed a reasonable response to an important insight. And yet it was suspiciously Washington-centric: poll-generated, a bit jargon-laden. Jerry Wurf, the leader who arguably did more than anyone else to forge Afscme into its modern form, was famous for inspiring workers to embrace radical means, even striking illegally. It's a long way from illegal strikes to performance prizes.

Which, in the end, brings the story back to Wisconsin.

To the Madison-area leaders who advocated responding to Governor Walker with a strike, the mere absence of a more cohesive organization did not, by itself, mean the unions had no hope of pulling it off. Labor leaders could have harnessed the energy of the more than 50,000 people protesting in the streets, the strike advocates said, but many state leaders lacked the fortitude to try.

"Who knows what could have snowballed if we could have had a one- or two-day walkout," said Mr. Richardson, the Madison activist. "If it had been heavy in some key sectors, it would not have had to be many people. If some prison guards walk out."

Rick Badger, a state-level Afscme official, said union leaders believed they stood a better chance of recalling Mr. Walker and Republican legislators than unifying their diverse membership behind a strike, which could have undermined those efforts, and they expected the courts to overturn Governor Walker's legislation.

Mr. Saunders has begun to address one huge vulnerability for public sector unions — the weakness of members' personal ties to one another and their leaders. But would he rally his members for a fight that could go disastrously wrong, even if it were the only thing that could save them?

Under Mr. Wurf, union officials sometimes calculated that even though the public may initially hate their members if they stopped collecting garbage or manning nursing homes, as a strike went on, voters would begin to hate the politicians even more.

Would Mr. Saunders, at a moment of reckoning, ever embrace that radical strategy?

"I don't know, I'm not a fortune teller," he responded when I asked about the possibility of a statewide strike in Wisconsin. "Maybe it could have been successful. It's just not that simple."

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