Tuesday, April 21, 2020

Greenstein: New COVID-19 Bill Helpful But Inadequate — More Needed for States and Localities, the Most Vulnerable, and the Economy [feedly]

Greenstein: New COVID-19 Bill Helpful But Inadequate — More Needed for States and Localities, the Most Vulnerable, and the Economy
https://www.cbpp.org/press/statements/greenstein-new-covid-19-bill-helpful-but-inadequate-more-needed-for-states-and

CBPP today released a statement from Robert Greenstein, president, on the announcement of a bipartisan deal on a new coronavirus relief package.

While providing needed support to small businesses and hospitals, the new COVID-19 package announced today falls short even as an interim measure, failing to deliver crucial state and local fiscal relief and food assistance.

The White House's refusal to provide more relief to states — whose revenues are plummeting due to the virus' effect on economic activity — will almost certainly lead many states to cut education and other critical services, including even health care, and to lay off teachers and other workers as states struggle to balance their budgets both for the fiscal year ending June 30 and the new fiscal year that starts July 1. The approaching state budget cuts (and possibly tax increases in some areas) will cause the U.S. economy to contract further — making the economic downturn deeper and more protracted, causing many more people to lose their jobs, and magnifying the serious hardship we already see.

GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT GAPS IN THIS LEGISLATION, IT'S CRITICAL FOR POLICYMAKERS TO BEGIN WORK RIGHT AWAY ON A NEW ROUND OF POLICIES THAT WILL MORE ADEQUATELY MEET THE NATION'S NEEDS.Similarly disappointing is the White House's and congressional Republicans' refusal to include in the new package an increase in the maximum SNAP (food stamp) benefit, as was done in the last recession. This measure, too, would both alleviate hardship and benefit the economy. Both the Congressional Budget Office and Moody's Analytics rank this measure among the most effective stimulative steps the federal government can take in a recession, on a bang-for-the-buck basis.

Given the significant gaps in this legislation, it's critical for policymakers to begin work right away on a new round of policies that will more adequately meet the nation's needs.

Legislation Omits State and Local Aid

States badly need substantial additional fiscal relief to help address the daunting budget crises they face. Local governments need assistance as well. Despite efforts from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, however, additional aid was blocked from inclusion in the new package.

State budget shortfalls could total more than $500 billion over the next few years, which will dwarf the roughly $65 billion in aid in earlier COVID-19 packages that is readily available to narrow those shortfalls. Without substantially more aid, states — which are required to balance their budgets every year, even in recessions and depressions — will almost certainly lay off teachers and other workers and cut health care, education, and other key services, making the economic downturn more severe.

States' costs are rising rapidly now as they seek to contain the coronavirus, and as businesses lay off workers and incomes fall, forcing many more people to turn to Medicaid and other assistance. At the same time, state revenues are plummeting, knocking state budgets far out of balance. Maryland, for example, projects a 15 percent shortfall for this fiscal year; Michigan projects shortfalls of up to 12 percent. And the shortfalls for the new state fiscal year that starts July 1 in most states will likely be much greater and could well be of a magnitude not seen since the Great Depression, nearly a century ago.

A key way to get fiscal relief to states is by building on an increase Congress previously provided in the federal share of Medicaid costs (FMAP). This increase is a good first step, but it's too small and expires when the official health emergency ends, even though state economies likely will still be ailing well beyond that. This additional, temporary FMAP increase would prevent Medicaid cuts that could cause millions of people to lose coverage or access to critical services during a public health crisis, while also freeing up some state resources to narrow states' budget gaps. Federal policymakers should also increase and extend the Coronavirus Relief Fund and give states the flexibility to use it to cover rising costs in a wide range of programs and to offset the steep revenue losses they face.

Deal Also Lacks Food Assistance for Struggling Families

Despite more than 20 million people becoming unemployed in recent weeks and striking images of thousands of people lined up at food banks around the country, the White House and its allies on Capitol Hill also blocked inclusion of a boost in SNAP benefits in the new package.

Policymakers should address this in the next response measure. Temporarily raising the maximum SNAP benefit would be effective, efficient, and timely. States can deliver an increase in the basic SNAP benefit in a matter of weeks, without new applications or procedures. SNAP benefits are modest, averaging about $1.40 per person per meal, less than what most families need to put adequate food on the table throughout the month. Inadequate benefit levels are particularly problematic during an economic downturn when many families face income losses and joblessness tends to last for considerably longer periods than during stronger economic times. This raises the risk of families — including many with very young children, who are overrepresented among very poor households — facing more serious hardship as a result of the downturn.

Rapid Action Needed on These and Other Fronts

Various policymakers have said they intend to craft a more comprehensive response package at some point after finishing the small business package. The next package should not only address immediate needs and problematic gaps in the earlier relief measures, but also ensure that key provisions to keep the economy from sinking further and to alleviate hardship remain in place until unemployment is no longer high and the economy has significantly recovered. This is essential to ensuring that relief measures don't stop too soon, weakening the economy while leaving families and state and local governments bereft of needed help.

In addition to strengthened state and local fiscal relief and food assistance, priorities for a future package include:

Extending key unemployment insurance and other provisions now set to expire in coming months — well before the need for them will abate — by tying them to economic triggers so they neither expire prematurely nor remain in effect too long;
Mitigating the loss of health insurance and strengthening coverage to ensure that people can access needed health care during the public health crisis;
Addressing the needs of the most vulnerable households in various ways to prevent a spike in evictions, homelessness, food insecurity, and other hardships that are especially dangerous during a pandemic; and
Ensuring that immigrants and their families have access to assistance rather than being excluded from it.

# # # #

The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities is a nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization and policy institute that conducts research and analysis on a range of government policies and programs. It is supported primarily by foundation grants.

TOPICS:
Federal Budget, State Budget and Tax, Economy, Food Assistance

The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities is a nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization and policy institute that conducts research and analysis on a range of government policies and programs. It is supported primarily by foundation grants.


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Updated state unemployment numbers remain astonishingly high: Six states saw record-high levels of initial unemployment claims last week [feedly]

Updated state unemployment numbers remain astonishingly high: Six states saw record-high levels of initial unemployment claims last week
https://www.epi.org/blog/updated-state-unemployment-numbers-remain-astonishingly-high-six-states-saw-record-high-levels-of-initial-unemployment-claims-last-week/

This morning, the Department of Labor released the latest initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims data, showing that another five million people (not seasonally adjusted) filed for UI last week. In the last four weeks, more than 20 million workers—whose economic security has been upended by the coronavirus crisis and inadequate policy responses—filed for UI.

Last week, Colorado, New York, South Carolina, Connecticut, Mississippi, and West Virginia saw their highest level of initial UI claim filings ever. These six states, along with Florida, Missouri, and North Carolina, saw increases in initial filings compared with the prior week.

Most states had fewer initial UI claims last week than the week prior, but the number of UI claims remained astonishingly high. California and Michigan—the two states with the largest decline since the week before—still had 661,000 and 219,000 claims filed last week, respectively—the third highest week on record for both.

Figure A compares UI claims filed last week with filings in the pre-virus period, showing once again that Southern states are faring particularly poorly. Seven of the 10 states that had the highest percent change last week relative to the pre-virus period are Southern: Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, Louisiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Alabama.

Figure A

Table 1 shows the data displayed in the map as well as the change in UI claims over the last five weeks relative to the same five-week period a year ago.

These UI claims represent a devastating loss of income and security for workers and their families and also have exacerbated existing inequalities. Women have been overrepresented in the number of job losses so far. The leisure and hospitality sector, which has laid off the most workers, disproportionately employs immigrants and people of color.

The staggering number of claims has also placed an enormous amount of strain on the agencies tasked with administering these benefits. Federal funding is needed to support these agencies and states must leverage existing laws to get aid to workers quickly.

For 9.2 million workers in the last four weeks, losing their job meant also losing their employer-provided health insurance. The federal government should expand Medicare and Medicaid to these workers so that they are able to seek care during the pandemic, should they need it. The United States could also follow the lead of other countries, such as Denmark and the Netherlands, by undertaking other transformative measures to guarantee paychecks to all workers. At a minimum, policymakers must address gaps in the existing coronavirus relief and recovery measures, including insufficient aid to state and local governments, in a fourth package.

Table 1

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Monday, April 20, 2020

WTO: Projections for World Trade in 2020 [feedly]

WTO: Projections for World Trade in 2020
http://conversableeconomist.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-wto-projections-for-world-trade-in.html

For those who see international trade as a destructive force, the dismal economic news of 2020 comes with as silver lining: as the World Trade Organization puts it, "Trade set to plunge as COVID-19 pandemic upends global economy" (April 8, 2020). The WTO predicts: "World merchandise trade is set to plummet by between 13 and 32% in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic."

The predicted slowdown in trade for 2020 is certainly no surprise, but the WTO report provided some context of patterns of trade since 2000 that seemed worth passing along.

One is that global trade slowed down after about 2008. I suspect that much of this change reflects patterns from China, where exports were growing much faster than GDP from 2001 up to about 2007, but since then have growth more slowly than GDP. The blue dashed lie shows the trendline of global trade if predicting based on 2000-2008. The yellow dashed line shows the flatter trendline  predicting based on on the years 2011-2018. The red and green lines show a range of trade projections for 2020 through 2022. Again, for those who see international trade as a destructive force, the slowdown after about 2008 and the sharp drop expected for 2020 should presumably be worth celebrating.


There's a classic argument among economists as to whether trade should be viewed as a cause of economic growth, or whether trade is just a by-product of economic growth (see "Trade: Engine or Handmaiden of Growth?",  January 23, 2017).  I won't revisit those arguments here, but instead just show the pattern. The red line shows the annual rate of world GDP growth; the blue line shows growth in the volume of world trade. The blue diamonds show the ratio between trade growth and world GDP growth in each year.



Through the 1990s and into the 2000s, it was common for the growth rate of trade to be higher than the growth rate of world GDP, so the ratios on the left-hand side of the figure are typically bigger than 1, and sometimes bigger than two. But since about 2011, world GDP has commonly grown at the same speed as trade or somewhat slower, so ratios of 1.0 or less are more common. In 2019, trade growth was about zero, so the ratio was also about zero. For 2020, the ratio will presumably turn negative, because the rate of growth for trade will be considerably more negative than the (also negative) rate of growth for world GDP.

In particular, the WTO forecasts big falls in two subsets of international trade in 2020: the trade linked to global supply chains, and in services trade. The WTO writes:
Value chain disruption was already an issue when COVID‑19 was mostly confined to China. It remains a salient factor now that the disease has become more widespread. Trade is likely to fall more steeply in sectors characterized by complex value chain linkages, particularly in electronics and automotive products. According to the OECD Trade In Value Added (TiVa) database, the share of foreign value added in electronics exports was around 10% for the United States, 25% for China, more than 30% for Korea, greater than 40% for Singapore and more than 50% for Mexico, Malaysia and Vietnam. ...
Services trade may be the component of world trade most directly affected by COVID-19 through the imposition of transport and travel restrictions and the closure of many retail and hospitality establishments. Services are not included in the WTO's merchandise trade forecast, but most trade in goods would be impossible without them (e.g. transport). Unlike goods, there are no inventories of services to be drawn down today and restocked at a later stage. As a result, declines in services trade during the pandemic may be lost forever. Services are also interconnected, with air transport enabling an ecosystem of other cultural, sporting and recreational activities. However, some services may benefit from the crisis. This is true of information technology services, demand for which has boomed as companies try to enable employees to work from home and people socialise remotely.

I see a certain amount of casual jibber-jabber from both ends of the political spectrum about how at least this recession gives the US a chance to separate itself from the rest of the global economy. The disruptions and costs inherent in making such a change should not be taken lightly.  

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De Blasio Says Surgical-Gown Shortage Is Crucial Concern in NYC [feedly]

It seems plain from articles like this, and many others, life cannot return to normal without a bigger and more responsive and more powerful public sector with public interest enforcement ability, at Federal, State and Local domains. More socialism.

De Blasio Says Surgical-Gown Shortage Is Crucial Concern in NYC

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-20/de-blasio-says-big-concern-is-shortage-of-surgical-gowns-in-nyc

New York City will cancel all of its permitted gatherings and public events through June while it continues to battle the new coronovirus, Mayor Bill de Blasio said Monday.

The cancellations remove from the calendar annual parades through Manhattan that attract hundreds of thousands, including Salute to Israel, Puerto Rican Day and the 50th anniversary of Gay Pride. Smaller gatherings such as softball games in public parks, street fairs and outdoor plays and concerts also are affected. Some may be rescheduled later this year if the epidemic can be contained, the mayor said.

Mayor De Blasio Visits Industrial Firms Making Protective Equipment For City's Health Care Workers

Bill de Blasio

Photographer: Demetrius Freeman/Bloomberg

City officials and organizers had estimated the Gay Pride parade, scheduled as part of a two-week celebration in June, would attract 150,000 marchers and 5 million visitors to Manhattan. It was to be part of an international observance of the 50th anniversary of the Stonewall Inn uprising, when patrons of a Greenwich Village gay bar forcibly resisted police efforts to arrest them.

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"These kind of community events, we love them, but they're not what we need right now, they're not the most essential things," de Blasio said during a Monday briefing. "We have to recognize when thousands and thousands of people gather in one place, of course that goes against everything we're trying to do."

In the future, when the epidemic enters a less acute phase, it may be possible to conduct fever checks on people entering restaurants, theaters or large events, but as of now there aren't enough thermometers, de Blasio said.

The key to restarting the city's economy and reopening such venues will be gaining the capacity to conduct hundreds of thousands of virus checks a day, "constantly monitoring for who may be sick and getting them the support they need, making sure they're isolated from their families if necessary," de Blasio said.

Reigniting the city's economy also requires federal reimbursement for the costs of containment and mitigation. City spending is already more than $700 million and will reach about $3.5 billion by the end of the year, the mayor said.

The mayor's announcement came on a day of mixed progress and challenges confronting the virus. A shortage of surgical gowns has raised concerns. De Blasio thanked President Donald Trump adviser Peter Navarro, who he said helped New York City get 265,000 Tyvek suits, as well as fabric that will help the city make 40,000 gowns this week and 400,000 by May 23. Yet that's "nowhere near" what the city needs, the mayor said. He asked for more federal help as well as gowns from other states.

City hospitals have enough masks, face guards and breathing-assistance ventilators to last the week, the mayor said.

De Blasio pointed to data that showed progress in tackling the spread. The number of citywide admissions to hospitals declined, to 212 from 317 on April 17, while public hospital ICU use was up slightly to 853 from 849. Medical emergency calls Saturday dropped to 3,485 from a peak of 6,527 on March 30, and ambulance response times have been cut to 6:43 on Saturday from an average 10:08 in March, the mayor said.

"We have a long way to go, but real progress for sure," he said.


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Ultra-rich benefit from big tax cut hidden in coronavirus stimulus law [feedly]

Ultra-rich benefit from big tax cut hidden in coronavirus stimulus law
https://www.peoplesworld.org/article/ultra-rich-benefit-from-big-tax-cut-hidden-in-coronavirus-stimulus-law/

WASHINGTON—Oink.

That's the sound the ultra-rich—especially real estate moguls—made as they slurp from the taxpayers' trough, courtesy of a multi-billion dollar tax break or two their GOP handmaidens slipped into the $2.2 trillion economic stimulus law Congress passed on March 18.

The congressional Joint Committee on Taxation blew the formal whistle on that tax cut, which is worth $80 billion this year and another $6.7 billion in the next, in an April 15 report.

The JCT analysis, which was not released until after the stimulus law passed, shows 81.8% of the tax break will go to 43 taxpayers who each declared more than $1 million in earnings last year.

Those are the taxpayers who own private corporations and carry over private "net operating losses." The tax cut would equal all the losses, not just 80%, and the private firms could use them to offset prior profits from the last five years, and future profits as well.

Another 13% of that tax break would go to taxpayers making $200,000 to $1 million. The average windfall for both groups: $1.6 million per taxpayer this year.

Further, a second tax break in the JCT's analysis, entitled "Modification on limitations on losses for taxpayers other than corporations" will bring its recipients $140.6 billion over the next two years.

The lawmakers who asked for the net operating loss data, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., and Rep. Lloyd Doggett, D-Texas, sharpened their knives for the pigs when they released preliminary details the day before. They got the data on the $80 billion break, but they asked the White House to justify both.

What wasn't there was who inserted the idea in the economic stimulus law, or which individual taxpayers would benefit. Whitehouse said it was in the GOP-run Senate Finance Committee's version of the stimulus law, but Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and his staff, reportedly wrote much of that measure.

The identity of the rich taxpayers who will benefit from that break is shielded from public view, by law. But both President Donald Trump and his son-in-law/aide/confidant, Jared Kushner, are real estate moguls. And the Trump Organization, his real estate firm, is privately held.

Trump still refuses to release his tax returns, despite federal law mandating their turnover to congressional tax-writing committees. But an idea of how he could benefit came from the leaked release of the front page of his 1996 tax return, for calendar year 1995, shoved under a door at the New York Times in October 2016. Trump had had to file the return with New Jersey officials when seeking a casino license two decades before.

It showed a $915 million net operating loss, on paper, for 1995. He didn't have to pay any taxes.

"It's a scandal for Republicans to loot American taxpayers in the midst of an economic and human tragedy," said Whitehouse, a former Rhode Island state attorney general. "This analysis shows that while Democrats fought for unemployment insurance and small business relief, a top priority of President Trump and his allies in Congress was another massive tax cut for the wealthy. Congress should repeal this rotten, un-American giveaway and use the revenue to help workers battling through this crisis."

After all, regular taxpayers are getting a one-time $1,200 Treasury check per adult, and $500 per child, as part of the economic stimulus lawmakers approved to counteract the coronavirus's cratering impact on people's jobs and the U.S. economy. But the Treasury told big banks they can seize those checks, or parts of them, to pay for overdrawn checking accounts, fees, and charges.

The Senate Finance Committee, headed by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's Republicans, inserted the tax cut provisions into the CARES Act. | AP

Left unsaid was that the original McConnell-GOP $2.2 trillion measure did not have the $1,200, or the stimulus law's expansion of jobless benefits. Senate Democrats beat back two McConnell attempts to get his measure through without those sections, before he finally yielded.

"For those earning $1 million annually, a tax break buried in the recent coronavirus relief legislation is so generous that its total cost is more than total new funding for all hospitals in America and more than the total provided to all state and local governments" by the economic stimulus law, said Doggett.

"Someone wrongly seized on this health emergency to reward ultra-rich beneficiaries, likely including the Trump family, with a tax loophole not available to middle-class families. This net operating loss loophole is a loser that should be repealed."

Adding together corporate tax breaks in the legislation, the Joint Committee said they would cost the Treasury $195 billion over a decade, most of it this calendar year and next. That prompted Whitehouse and Doggett to demand, in a letter to the White House, texts of all communications between the White House and congressional tax writers about those two sections, before the overall legislation passed.

The response, if they get one, "would let Congress and the American public better understand the provenance of these tax law changes, and assess whether any individuals within the administration who stand to gain from these provisions were involved in their development," the two wrote. They gave the administration 15 days to reply.


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9.2 million workers likely lost their employer-provided health insurance in the past four weeks [feedly]

9.2 million workers likely lost their employer-provided health insurance in the past four weeks
https://www.epi.org/blog/9-2-million-workers-likely-lost-their-employer-provided-health-insurance-in-the-past-four-weeks/

We estimate that 9.2 million workers were at high risk of losing their employer-provided health insurance in the past four weeks. To avoid prohibitively costly insurance options, the federal government should fund an expansion of Medicare and Medicaid to all those suffering job losses during the pandemic period.

Two weeks ago, when the two-week total of unemployment insurance (UI) initial claims was 8.7 million, we estimated that 3.5 million workers may have lost their health insurance at work. Since then, 11.4 million more workers filed claims for unemployment benefits, bringing the total of UI initial claims over the last four weeks to 20.1 million, currently the most comprehensive measure of the extent of job losses and furloughs due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We estimate that across all industries where workers have filed UI claims, about 45.7% of workers had their own health insurance provided through their employer. As a result, of the 20.1 million workers who filed initial UI claims in the last four weeks, 9.2 million may have lost coverage through their own employer-provided health insurance (EPHI).

The analysis, described below, combines industry-specific UI claims data for 11 states, representing about 20% of national employment, with national, industry-specific health insurance coverage rates. Using these data, we provide a rough prediction of 9.2 million workers losing EPHI. We can't say exactly how many people will lose insurance coverage altogether for several reasons. For example, some workers who lose EPHI due to layoffs or hours reductions that trigger UI claims may be able to obtain coverage through health care exchanges set up by the Affordable Care Act (ACA) or through Medicaid. Some of this group may also be able to obtain continuing coverage through COBRA, paying out of pocket the full cost of their EPHI coverage. Some workers may be able to obtain coverage through other family members, or if only experiencing a temporary furlough or hours reduction, their employers might continue to pay for coverage. On the other hand, our calculations might understate the loss of health insurance coverage because they do not account for family members who are no longer covered because of the policyholder's layoff. And, because not all layoffs result in UI claims, we will underestimate the actual magnitude of job losses.

Because the United States is unique among rich countries in tying health insurance benefits to employment, many of the newly unemployed will suddenly face prohibitively costly insurance options. A comprehensive policy solution would be to extend Medicare and Medicaid to all those suffering job losses during the pandemic period, with the federal government funding this expansion. Current discussions suggest there may be legislation that the federal government pay for all of COBRA coverage so that workers who are laid off or furloughed may continue their employer-provided coverage. While this policy proposal will help many workers continue coverage, in some states it will not help workers from small businesses with fewer than 20 employees, who are not eligible for COBRA.

The linkage between specific jobs and the availability of health insurance is a prime source of inefficiency and inequity in the U.S. health system. It is especially terrifying for workers to lose their health insurance as a result of, and during, an ongoing pandemic.

Methodology

Our methodology builds on our previous work, which extrapolated from industry-level statistics published by Washington state. In this updated analysis, we instead use recently collected industry-level UI claims datafrom 11 states. From these states' data, we calculate the average industry-specific shock as the number of UI claims as a share of 2019Q3 employment from the QCEW. We apply this industry-specific job loss share to all the other states' industry-specific employment totals, and then we proportionally scale these losses so that each state's total job loss equals its statewide not-seasonally-adjusted total initial UI claims for the four weeks ending March 21 through April 11. The estimates in the first column of Table 1 are the sum of these industry- and state-specific job losses.

Table 1

The second column provides national industry-specific shares of employer-provided health insurance coverage rates using data from the 2018 March Current Population Survey, limiting the sample to those who worked in the private sector or in government during the previous year. Multiplying the first and second column is our estimate of EPHI job losses: the number of layoffs or furloughs in which, on average, workers will be at risk of losing their own employer-based health insurance. Finally, the fourth column expresses the total job loss estimate as a share of 2019Q3 industry-specific employment.

Figure A uses the same methodology but provides state-specific estimates of these job losses.

We should note that other analysis has shown that it is difficult to draw reliable inferences from the industry composition of UI claims. In the case of EPHI, we don't yet have independent direct data sources on coverage to provide a check for the industry-based estimates in this post. As these sources become available, we will use them to check or supplement these estimates.

Figure A


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Saturday, April 18, 2020

Enlighten Radio:The End of the Road Podcast: Very Hard, followed by Wilderness

The Red Caboose has sent you a link to a blog:



Blog: Enlighten Radio
Post: The End of the Road Podcast: Very Hard, followed by Wilderness
Link: https://www.enlightenradio.org/2020/04/the-end-of-road-podcast-very-hard.html

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