Thursday, April 5, 2018

Empowering the safety officer? [feedly]

Empowering the safety officer?
http://understandingsociety.blogspot.com/2018/04/empowering-safety-officer.html


How can industries involving processes that create large risks of harm for individuals or populations be modified so they are more capable of detecting and eliminating the precursors of harmful accidents? How can nuclear accidents, aviation crashes, chemical plant explosions, and medical errors be reduced, given that each of these activities involves large bureaucratic organizations conducting complex operations and with substantial inter-system linkages? How can organizations be reformed to enhance safety and to minimize the likelihood of harmful accidents?

One of the lessons learned from the Challenger space shuttle disaster is the importance of a strongly empowered safety officer in organizations that deal in high-risk activities. This means the creation of a position dedicated to ensuring safe operations that falls outside the normal chain of command. The idea is that the normal decision-making hierarchy of a large organization has a built-in tendency to maintain production schedules and avoid costly delays. In other words, there is a built-in incentive to treat safety issues with lower priority than most people would expect.

If there had been an empowered safety officer in the launch hierarchy for the Challenger launch in 1986, there is a good chance this officer would have listened more carefully to the Morton-Thiokol engineering team's concerns about low temperature damage to O-rings and would have ordered a halt to the launch sequence until temperatures in Florida raised to the critical value. The Rogers Commission faulted the decision-making process leading to the launch decision in its final report on the accident (The Report of the Presidential Commission on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident - The Tragedy of Mission 51-L in 1986 - Volume One, Volume Two, Volume Three).

This approach is productive because empowering a safety officer creates a different set of interests in the management of a risky process. The safety officer's interest is in safety, whereas other decision makers are concerned about revenues and costs, public relations, reputation, and other instrumental goods. So a dedicated safety officer is empowered to raise safety concerns that other officers might be hesitant to raise. Ordinary bureaucratic incentives may lead to underestimating risks or concealing faults; so lowering the accident rate requires giving some individuals the incentive and power to act effectively to reduce risks.

Similar findings have emerged in the study of medical and hospital errors. It has been recognized that high-risk activities are made less risky by empowering all members of the team to call a halt in an activity when they perceive a safety issue. When all members of the surgical team are empowered to halt a procedure when they note an apparent error, serious operating-room errors are reduced. (Here is a report from the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists on surgical patient safety; link. And here is a 1999 National Academy report on medical error; link.)

The effectiveness of a team-based approach to safety depends on one central fact. There is a high level of expertise embodied in the staff operating a surgical suite, an engineering laboratory, or a drug manufacturing facility. By empowering these individuals to stop a procedure when they judge there is an unrecognized error in play, this greatly extend the amount of embodied knowledge involved in a process. The surgeon, the commanding officer, or the lab director is no longer the sole expert whose judgments count.

But it also seems clear that these innovations don't work equally well in all circumstances. Take nuclear power plant operations. In Atomic Accidents: A History of Nuclear Meltdowns and Disasters: From the Ozark Mountains to Fukushima James Mahaffey documents multiple examples of nuclear accidents that resulted from the efforts of mid-level workers to address an emerging problem in an improvised way. In the case of nuclear power plant safety, it appears that the best prescription for safety is to insist on rigid adherence to pre-established protocols. In this case the function of a safety officer is to monitor operations to ensure protocol conformance -- not to exercise independent judgment about the best way to respond to an unfavorable reactor event. 

It is in fact an interesting exercise to try to identify the kinds of operations in which these innovations are likely to be effective.

Here is a fascinating interview in Slate with Jim Bagian, a former astronaut, one-time director of the Veteran Administration's National Center for Patient Safety, and distinguished safety expert; link. Bagian emphasizes the importance of taking a system-based approach to safety. Rather than focusing on finding blame for specific individuals whose actions led to an accident, Bagian emphasizes the importance of tracing back to the institutional, organizational, or logistic background of the accident. What can be changed in the process -- of delivering medications to patients, of fueling a rocket, or of moving nuclear solutions around in a laboratory -- that make the likelihood of an accident substantially lower?

The safety principles involved here seem fairly simple: cultivate a culture in which errors and near-misses are reported and investigated without blame; empower individuals within risky processes to halt the process if their expertise and experience indicates the possibility of a significant risky error; create individuals within organizations whose interests are defined in terms of the identification and resolution of unsafe practices or conditions; and share information about safety within the industry and with the public.

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Stiglitz: Trump’s Trade Confusion [feedly]

Trump's Trade Confusion
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-unnecessary-trade-war-by-joseph-e--stiglitz-2018-04

Apr 5, 2018 JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ

US President Donald Trump's recently announced import tariffs on steel, aluminum, and $60 billion in other goods that the US imports from China each year are in keeping with his record of responding to nonexistent problems. Unfortunately, while Trump captures the world's attention, serious real problems go unaddressed.

NEW YORK – The trade skirmish between the United States and China on steel, aluminum, and other goods is a product of US President Donald Trump's scorn for multilateral trade arrangements and the World Trade Organization, an institution that was created to adjudicate trade disputes.




Before announcing import tariffs on more than 1,300 types of Chinese-made goods worth around $60 billion per year, in early March Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum, which he justified on the basis of national security. Trump insists that a tariff on a small fraction of imported steel – the price of which is set globally – will suffice to address a genuine strategic threat.

Most experts, however, find that rationale dubious. Trump himself has already undercut his national-security claim by exempting most major exporters of steel to the US. Canada, for example, is exempted on the condition of a successful renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, effectively threatening the country unless it gives into US demands.

But there are a host of issues in contention, involving, for example, lumber, milk, and cars. Is Trump really suggesting that the US would sacrifice national security for a better agreement on these minor irritants in US-Canadian trade? Or perhaps the national-security claim is fundamentally bogus, as Trump's secretary of defense has suggested, and Trump, as muddled as he is on most issues, realizes this.

As is often the case, Trump seems to be fixated on a bygone problem. Recall that, by the time Trump began talking about his border wall, immigration from Mexico had already dwindled to near zero. And by the time he started complaining about China depressing its currency's exchange rate, the Chinese government was in fact propping up the renminbi.

Likewise, Trump is introducing his steel tariffs after the price of steel has already increased by about 130% from its trough, owing partly to China's own efforts to reduce its excess capacity. But Trump is not just addressing a non-issue. He is also inflaming passions and taxing US relationships with key allies. Worst of all, his actions are motivated by pure politics. He is eager to seem strong and confrontational in the eyes of his electoral base.


Even if Trump had no economists advising him, he would have to realize that what matters is the multilateral trade deficit, not bilateral trade deficits with any one country. Reducing imports from China will not create jobs in the US. Rather, it will increase prices for ordinary Americans and create jobs in Bangladesh, Vietnam, or any other country that steps in to replace the imports that previously came from China. In the few instances where manufacturing does return to the US, it will probably not create jobs in the old Rust Belt. Instead, the goods are likely to be produced by robots, which are as likely to be located in high-tech centers as elsewhere.

Trump wants China to reduce its bilateral trade surplus with the US by $100 billion, which it could do by buying $100 billion worth of US oil or gas. But whether China were to reduce its purchases from elsewhere or simply sell the US oil or gas on to other places, there would be little if any effect on the US or global economy. Trump's focus on the bilateral trade deficit is, frankly, silly.

Predictably, China has answered Trump's tariffs by threatening to respond to their imposition with tariffs of its own. Those tariffs would affect US-made goods across a wide range of sectors, but disproportionately in areas where support for Trump has been strong.

China's response has been firm and measured, aimed at avoiding both escalation and appeasement, which, when dealing with an unhinged bully, only encourages more aggression. One hopes that US courts or congressional Republicans will rein in Trump. But, then again, the Republican Party, standing in solidarity with Trump, seems suddenly to have forgotten its longstanding commitment to free trade, much like a few months ago, when it forgot its longstanding commitment to fiscal prudence.

More broadly, support for China within both the US and the European Union has been waning for a number of reasons. Looking beyond the US and European voters who are suffering from deindustrialization, the fact is that China is not the gold mine it was once perceived to be for American corporations.

As Chinese firms have become more competitive, wages and environmental standards in China have risen. Meanwhile, China has been slow to open up its financial markets, much to the displeasure of Wall Street investors. Ironically, while Trump claims to be looking out for US industrial workers, the real winner from "successful" negotiations – which would spur China to open its markets further to insurance and other financial activities – is likely to be Wall Street.

Today's trade conflict reveals the extent to which America has lost its dominant global position. When a poor, developing China started increasing its trade with the West a quarter-century ago, few imagined that it would now be the world's industrial giant. China has already surpassed the US in manufacturing output, savings, trade, and even GDP when measured in terms of purchasing power parity.

Even more frightening to many in the advanced countries is the real possibility that, beyond catching up rapidly in its technological competence, China could actually lead in one of the key industries of the future: artificial intelligence. AI is based on big data, and the availability of data is fundamentally a political matter that implicates issues such as privacy, transparency, security, and the rules that frame economic competition.

The EU, for its part, seems highly concerned with protecting data privacy, whereas China does not. Unfortunately, that could give China a large advantage in developing AI. And advantages in AI will extend well beyond the technology sector, potentially to almost every sector of the economy. Clearly, there needs to be a global agreement to set standards for developing and deploying AI and related technologies. Europeans should not have to compromise their genuinely held concerns about privacy just to promote trade, which is simply a means (sometimes) to achieving higher living standards.

In the years ahead, we are going to have to figure out how to create a "fair" global trading regime among countries with fundamentally different economic systems, histories, cultures, and societal preferences. The danger of the Trump era is that while the world watches the US president's Twitter feed and tries not to be pushed off one cliff or another, such real and difficult challenges are going unaddressed.


Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics, is University Professor at Columbia University and Chief Economist at the Roosevelt Institute. His most recent book is Globalization and Its Discontents Revisited: Anti-Globalization in the Era of Trump.

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Where Is Student Debt Highest? [feedly]

Where Is Student Debt Highest?
https://www.urban.org/research/publication/where-student-debt-highest

While there is great focus on student debt at the national level, little attention has been given to the geographic distribution of student loans and how it relates to cost of attending college in a state. This brief shows that the states where the largest shares of college students have student debt are in the Midwest and the Northeast. The Western region of the country has the lowest share of college students with student loans. We also find that the share of the college-going population with student loans in a state is positively associated with the average cost of attending a public four-year institution.

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Trade Deficit at $57.6 Billion in February [feedly]

Trade Deficit at $57.6 Billion in February
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2018/04/trade-deficit-at-576-billion-in-february.html

From the Department of Commerce reported:
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $57.6 billion in February, up $0.9 billion from $56.7 billion in January, revised. ... February exports were $204.4 billion, $3.5 billion more than January exports. February imports were $262.0 billion, $4.4 billion more than January imports.
Click on graph for larger image.

Both exports and imports increased in February. 

Exports are 24% above the pre-recession peak and up 7% compared to February 2017; imports are 13% above the pre-recession peak, and up 11% compared to February 2017.

In general, trade has been picking up.

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Oil imports averaged $54.61 in February, down slightly from $54.76 in January, and up from $45.25 in February 2017. 

The petroleum deficit increased over the last two months, and this is the main reason the overall trade deficit increased in January and February. 

The trade deficit with China increased to $29.3 billion in February, from $23.0 billion in February 2017.  The trade deficit with China was boosted by the timing of the Chinese New Year this year.

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Wednesday, April 4, 2018

The West Is Wrong About China’s President [feedly]

The West Is Wrong About China's President
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-no-presidential-term-limits-not-dangerous-by-keyu-jin-2018-04

The West Is Wrong About China's President

Apr 3, 2018 KEYU JIN

In the West, government accountability is closely identified with democratic elections. In China, it is a function of how – and how well – the government responds to and protects the needs and interests of the people.

BEIJING – China's recent constitutional amendment eliminating the term limits for the president and vice president has left much of the West aghast. Critics fear the emergence of a new and unaccountable dictatorship, with President Xi Jinping becoming "Chairman Mao 2.0." This response is more than a little inappropriate.

Long tenures are not exactly unheard of in the West. For example, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has just begun her fourth four-year term – a development that the rest of Europe has largely welcomed rather than criticized.

Of course, a Westerner might argue that Merkel has an electoral mandate, whereas Xi does not. But democratic elections are not the only way to achieve accountability. And Xi's approval rating, according to almost all international surveys, seems to exceed the combined approval ratings of US President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Theresa May. While there may be reason to worry that Chinese politics could change for the worse, the same is true in the United States and the United Kingdom.

Term limits are little more than an arbitrary constraint, which are not needed to ensure competent and responsive government in China. In fact, term limits could do just the opposite, cutting short the tenure of effective leaders, leading to policy disruptions, or even leading to political chaos.

The US has long recognized this. Alexander Hamilton wrote that it is necessary to give leaders "the inclination and the resolution" to do the best possible job. They can thus prove their merits to the people, who can choose to "prolong the utility of [their leaders'] talents and virtues, and to secure to the government the advantage of permanency in a wise system of administration."

In 1947, however, following President Franklin D. Roosevelt's election to four terms in office, Congress enacted the Twenty-Second Amendment to the US Constitution; since its ratification in 1951, US presidents have been limited to two four-year terms. The idea was to make a virtue of inexperience. But most new presidents make significant blunders at the start, and now there are more starts. If the US had no term limits, Trump might well not be in office today.



To be sure, term limits have their value. Deng Xiaoping added them to the Chinese constitution after the Cultural Revolution, in order to prevent the recurrence of chaotic and brutal one-man rule. But the new generation of Chinese leaders is not just well-educated, but also well aware of international norms and standards. Unlike the ideological diehards of the past, they can be expected to behave rationally, intelligently, and responsibly.

In this context, the removal of term limits will enable Xi to sustain a complex reform process that will take years to complete. It will not make him president for life, nor deliver him unbridled and undivided power.

Western critics emphasize that Xi has done much to concentrate power in his own hands over the last six years. And, to some extent, that is true. For example, he has taken over some of the economic policy decisions that used to be the prime minister's domain.

But a strong leader is not necessarily an autocratic leader. And, in a high-stakes environment, a strong leader is needed to neutralize vested interests that resist crucial reforms. Xi knows the obstacles that blocked the implementation of his initiatives during his first term, and he is committed to overcoming them.

In any case, the situation is hardly a "one-man show," as much foreign commentary suggests. Half of the members of the Politburo Standing Committee, China's supreme government body, are not of Xi's choosing. And compromises were made in the placement of many senior officials, including key cabinet members.

It would be a mistake to assume that because China has vowed not to copy the Western political model, there are not hidden democratic processes at work. While leaders are not elected, either directly or by a representative body, their performance is subject to close scrutiny – for example, by the National People's Congress (NPC) and local people's congresses. The Chinese government is also unusually responsive to citizens on social media.

Moreover, checks and balances, though still inadequate, have been strengthened in recent years. Policy changes require consensus within the Politburo, especially the Standing Committee. On major issues, the NPC must give the green light. Nothing stops deputies from casting a dissenting vote, thanks in part to the growing prevalence of secret ballots. A small but significant feature of this year's Congress is the elimination of the electronic voting system; instead, officials will drop paper slips into a ballot box.

This is not the first time that Western media have adopted a perspective on Chinese political developments that runs completely counter to the prevailing view in China itself. Over the last few years, Xi's anti-corruption drive has raised many eyebrows in the West, where it is often regarded as just a means for Xi to remove would-be political rivals. But the almost two million officials who have been indicted surely weren't all Xi's opponents. Among Chinese, the effort to root out corruption has boosted respect and support for Xi.

In the West, government accountability is closely identified with democratic elections. In China, it is a function of how – and how well – the government responds to and protects the needs and interests of the people. Given the sheer complexity of modern China – not to mention the paramount need for the government to continue the country's progress toward high-income status – success may require leaders to stay in place longer than initially expected. But, if recent history is any guide, the recent changes will contribute to making China's political and economic system increasingly stable – without undermining accountability.


KEYU JIN

Writing for PS since 2012
15 Commentaries

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Keyu Jin, a professor of economics at the London School of Economics, is a World Economic Forum Young Global Leader and a member of the Richemont Group Advisory Board.

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How U.S.-China Trade Spat Could Threaten Manufacturing [feedly]

How U.S.-China Trade Spat Could Threaten Manufacturing
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/04/business/economy/trade-impact.html

If the tariffs stand, along with China's retaliatory moves, they could damage industries that have relied on a global supply chain for their recovery.

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Trump, trade and the tech war [feedly]

I usually don't post Roberts stuff due to his extreme Trotskyism in politics. But there is good infohere on aspects of the trade debate not frequently covered...


Trump, trade and the tech war
https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2018/04/04/trump-trade-and-the-tech-war/

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President Trump has now moved on from steel tariffs (with exemptions for some allies) to the real battle: stopping China from gaining market share in America's key industries: technology, pharma and other knowledge-based sectors. Can China make further inroads globally or will Trump's policies stop them?

The first thing to note is where things are right now.  Economists at Goldman Sachs, the US investment bank, have looked at the data.  They find that "the US position as a global technological leader remains strong. The US's economy-wide productivity remains high compared to other advanced economies, and its shares of global R&D, patents and IP royalties remain impressive."  China has been catching up though, but in medium value-added goods sectors and hardly at all in knowledge-based tech.  So, while overall, the US share of global high-tech goods exports has declined as China's share has grown, the US trade sector deficits have been concentrated in medium-high-tech goods rather than in the most advanced categories. Indeed, the US share of global knowledge-intensive service exports has held up, contributing to a rising trade surplus and higher employment in those sectors.

Take overall productivity, as measured by output per hour worked.  On this broad measure of the productivity of labour, the US remains ahead, even compared to other advanced economies in Europe and Japan.  China's labour productivity level is just 20% of the US, although that is a quadrupling since 2000.

The US continues to invest a relatively large share of its GDP in research and development. While the US share of global R&D has declined, in part due to a rapid increase in China's share, the US remains the global R&D leader, accounting for nearly 30% of the world total, about 1.5-2 times the US share of world GDP.

Total patents granted for new inventions show that the US share has held roughly steady at around 20%. China's share of total patents granted has risen very rapidly over the last decade to over 20%, but most patents granted to Chinese innovators have come from its own domestic patent office, with far fewer granted abroad. The US share of the world total of royalties on intellectual property has declined somewhat as the EU's has grown, but it remains very large. China's share remains negligible.  That means US capital is still taking the lion's share of global profits in technology.

The modern 21st century US economy relies increasingly on advanced knowledge and technology sectors for its growth.  The share of US GDP for these sectors is now 38%, the highest of any major economy. But China is not far behind with 35% of its GDP in these sectors, amazingly high for a 'developing' economy.

Where Trump is now concentrating his ire on China is on the share of hi-tech goods sales in world markets.  While the US is the largest producer of high-tech goods, its share of world exports has shrunk considerably while China's share has grown.  This rising Chinese competition has caused US manufacturing firms to reduce their patent production, which has been accompanied by reduced global sales, profits, and employment.

But on the services side, the US is the largest global producer of commercial knowledge-intensive services and second only to the EU in exports. China's share remains quite small.  If China gains market share in this area, it will really hurt US capital.

That's because, although the US runs a deficit on trade in tech and knowledge industries, that deficit has shrunk from the early 2000s.  The US is more than holding its own in this area even since China joined the World Trade Organisation. Indeed, it runs a surplus in knowledge-intensive services, which has grown over the last decade.  It is this that Trump seeks to protect.

While jobs have been lost to technology replacing labour (capital-bias) and the shift of US industry to China in manufacturing, the employment share of hi-tech and knowledge sectors has risen to about one-third of all US jobs.  Trump claims to be restoring the 'smoke-stack' sectors where he won some votes, but in reality that battle for jobs is already lost, thanks to US industry shifting out.  The real battle is now over profits and jobs in the knowledge-based sectors where the US still rules.

But these sectors are highly concentrated in just a few firms, the technology leaders.  There are wide swathes of American industry, including tech, which benefits little from this US superiority.  Just five firms have over 60% of sales in biotechnology, pharma, software, internet and comms equipment.  The top five in each sector are taking the lion's share of profits too.

What this shows is that, contrary to the mainstream economic idea that international 'free trade' will benefit all, the gains from trade are concentrated in just the leading firms which take advantage of network, scale, and experience and gain larger market share.  The rising industry concentration has in turn boosted their corporate profit margins.  As Goldman Sachs puts it: "global trade is particularly concentrated, with "export superstars" accounting for a very large share of exports in many industries and countries."

Contrary to the Ricardian theory of comparative advantage, international trade is transacted by companies not countries and, as such, value (profit) gets transferred to those with technological advantage and they gain at the expense of others.  Trade represents a form of combined development, but capitalism delivers this unevenly.

As I argued in a previous post, over the last 30 years or so, the world capitalist economies had moved closer to 'free trade' with sharp reductions in tariffs, quotas and other restrictions – and many international trade deals.  But since the Great Recession and in the current Long Depression, globalisation has paused or even stopped.  World trade 'openness' (the share of world trade in global GDP) has been declining since the end of the Great Recession.

It is this decline in globalisation as world economic growth stays low and the profitability of capital remains squeezed that lies behind this new trade war.  Trump's blundering blows on trade have an objective reason: to preserve US profits and capital in the key growing tech sectors of the world economy from the rising force of Chinese industry.  So far, the US is still holding a strong lead in hi-tech and intellectual property sectors, while China's growth has been mainly in taking market share at home from American companies, not yet globally. But China is gaining.