Friday, August 18, 2017

Beauty and Profit



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Beauty and Profit // Dollars & Sense Blog
http://dollarsandsense.org/blog/2017/08/beauty-and-profit.html

By Polly Cleveland

Beauty and Profit: The Evolution of Beauty (2017) by Richard O. Prum

In 1860 Charles Darwin wrote to his American colleague, Asa Gray: "The sight of a feather in a peacock's tail, whenever I gaze at it, makes me sick!" What was Darwin's problem?

Darwin (1809 – 1882) had just published his masterpiece On the Origin of Species (1859), in which he laid out his theory of evolution by natural selection. Darwin had rushed The Origin into print so as not to be beaten out by his co-discoverer, Alfred Russel Wallace (1823-1913). Unlike Wallace, Darwin worried about many seemingly maladaptive features of living organisms – like the male peacock's beautiful but cumbersome tail.

In 1871, Darwin published his second big book, The Descent of Man, and Selection in Relation to Sex. Here, Darwin argued that, besides natural selection, two sexual mechanisms were at work. Horns and other weapons as well as large body size of many males, he claimed, derived from the "Law of Battle"– the competition between males (mostly) for access to the opposite sex. He called the second mechanism "Taste for the Beautiful". This happened when one sex, usually female, selected mates by some arbitrary aesthetic criterion – like eye spots on a peacock's tail. Aesthetic selection could "run away": When females selected a male for his long tail or his red cockade, they would produce male offspring with long tails or red cockades and female offspring with a taste for males with long tails or red cockades.

In The Evolution of Beauty, Yale ornithologist Richard Prum picks up the story. The Victorians were quite content with the "Law of Battle", but "Taste for the Beautiful" – no way! The very idea that females could exercise active sexual choice appalled that prudish society. Wallace himself led the reaction, becoming more "Darwinian" than Darwin in his insistence that natural selection could account for all features of living things. As Prum details, Wallace's view dominates evolutionary science to this day. Natural scientists have twisted themselves into knots explaining peacocks' tails as somehow adaptive. A popular hypothesis is that the very burden of the tail indicates to a female that a male is extra fit and healthy.

Prum will have none of this. Of course, as he points out, there's a trade-off between ornament and fitness. A bird with too long a tail won't survive as well as one with only a moderately long tail. But nonetheless sexual selection can impair fitness*. He gives a telling example: the club-winged manakin. The male of this tiny neotropical bird makes a violin-like squeak by rubbing its wings together at high speed; to squeak, it has evolved distorted solid-boned wings that make it an inefficient flyer. Moreover, the female has the same wings, though hollow-boned and less extreme. (This happens because embryos start out identical and only later differentiate by sex; that's why males have nipples.)

Prum recognizes the parallel to economics. He reports a conversation with his Yale colleague, Robert Shiller, who complains about the "efficient market hypothesis," so popular before the crash of 2008. The "efficient market hypothesis" assumes that in the markets for stocks, bonds, other securities, and even land, the prices reasonably reflect future profitability. The hypothesis course turned out to be disastrously wrong in the stock market bubble of the roaring 20s, and in the world wide real estate bubble leading up to the crash of 2008. But I believe the problem goes deeper.

Conventional neoclassical economics assumes that in a capitalist society, competition forces all businesses to relentlessly maximize profit or fail. Marxian economics makes the same assumption. That's why conventional economists celebrate capitalism, because it supposedly leads to efficiency and innovation. That's why Marxists condemn capitalism, because it seems to require ruthless anti-social behavior. To me, the assumption that "cutthroat competition" alone shapes the economic world is equivalent to the "Darwinian" assumption that "survival of the fittest" alone shapes the natural world.

How might Darwin's two alternative mechanisms show up in the economic world? The "Law of Battle" evokes vast advertising campaigns, often misleading, wasteful and ineffective. Or legal battles over patents and copyrights. But, like the giant horns on a bull elk, blowing money on such activities could signal corporate "fitness." What about a "Taste for the Beautiful"? That evokes monumental, luxurious corporate headquarters, private planes, eye-popping salaries and other perks for corporate management. Do such features aid or hinder corporate profitability? The Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times overflow with accounts of executives pursuing their self-interest at the expense of the bottom line—even when the value of their stock is falling. Corporations are of course a modern invention; a few generations ago, when businesses were mostly run by families, it would have been laughable to deem the "conspicuous consumption" of wealthy owners as profit-maximizing behavior.

The same fallacy underlies both the theory of "survival of the fittest" and the theory of "cutthroat competition". That's the assumption that living species and economic organizations eternally teeter on the razor edge of survival. Put like that, it's obviously nonsense. In the natural world, saying that a species occupies an ecological "niche" suggests there's a particular location in which it has enough of an advantage to thrive in good times and survive in bad ones. That location might be a zebra's gut for botfly larvae or New York City for Norway rats. Businesses have niches too: spots where they enjoy a little—or a lot—of monopoly power. Sr. Perez's corner bodega enjoys a bit of monopoly power by being the most convenient shopping location at the most convenient hours in the immediate neighborhood. At the other end of the scale, there's Exxon-Mobil. Monopoly can provide Sr. Perez a small cushion when bad weather keeps customers indoors; international monopoly provides a tempting slush fund for Exxon execs.

Prum reminds us we need to challenge rigid doctrines and follow Darwin's open-minded investigation of the natural or economic world around us. (Of course, if the central problem of capitalism is monopoly instead of cutthroat competition, we must look for alternative solutions.)

* By "fitness", Darwin meant adaptation to the environment, or ability to survive—an objective characteristic. Modern evolutionary scientists, to Prum's infinite annoyance, have redefined "fitness" as relative success in passing on one's genes. This circular definition—success as its own measure—makes Darwin's ideas of sexual selection meaningless.


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Monday, August 14, 2017

An important fact check on manufacturing value-added and employment



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An important fact check on manufacturing value-added and employment // Jared Bernstein | On the Economy
http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/an-important-fact-check-on-manufacturing-value-added-and-employment/

So, I'm driving around doing errands this past weekend when I hear former Secretary of Commerce Carlos Gutierrez (in GW Bush's cabinet) interviewed about renegotiating NAFTA. He's a big booster of the trade deal and wanted to make the point that any job loss in manufacturing was a result of faster productivity growth, not imbalanced trade. His evidence was as follows (my bold):

One of the things I go back to very often is our manufacturing as a percent of GDP. Our manufacturing output is pretty stable, pretty flat. If you go back 10, 15 years, it's between 12 and 14 percent. But our manufacturing workforce has been declining steadily. So we're producing the same output with fewer people. What that tells me is that technology is more of a threat to American jobs than trade.

Stable manufacturing output share of GDP?! I practically dropped the dry cleaning!

The first figure shows that, in fact, manufacturing's share of output (blue line) has been falling since I was born in the mid-1950s. It was 11.7% in 2016, 13% in 2006, and 13.9% in the 2001. OK, that's roughly between 12 and 14 percent, but it ain't stable. It's falling, and pretty steadily. In fact, Louis Uchitelle just published an important book on this long-term trend.

Sources: BEA, BLS

The red line shows the decline in manufacturing employment, which is also steadily declining, such that the most we can determine from these trends is that we're creating a smaller share of output with a smaller share of workers, as the scatterplot of the data in the two figures clearly reveals.

Sources: BEA, BLS

The employment share falls faster than the output share, so sure, there's been productivity growth in manufacturing (though as I show here, not so much of late; see also Sue Houseman's important work on this point). But this endless drumbeat about manufacturing jobs falling prey to automation seems at least woefully incomplete, if not non-economic.

First, trade and automation interact and are thus not clearly separable forces. Technological advances in communication and transportation interact with globalization to facilitate offshoring and deeper global supply chains. Nor should anyone convince themselves that it matters to workers which force is displacing them. Gutierrez implicitly argues that because it's automation, not trade, displaced workers should somehow be assuaged. Hey, all they need to do is go from running a drill press to designing, building and programming drill-press-running robots!

Second, if productivity killed jobs, full stop, unemployment would typically be through the roof. The intervening variable has always been demand, as productivity growth generates rising real incomes that supports stronger demand and higher living standards, at least on average (if not "on median").

We thus must ask ourselves what happened to diminish the demand for American manufactured goods such that employment in the sector fell, both in absolute terms since 2000, and as a share of total employment for decades, as shown in the figure? The answer is, of course, import substitution. American consumers have increasingly met their demand for manufactured goods through imports.

That has its pluses, as Gutierrez points out, but also its minuses: it has certainly hurt vulnerable manufacturing communities, in no small part because policymakers refused to help them adapt to the change. Moreover, this import substitution was much exacerbated, especially in the GW Bush years, by persistently large trade deficits in manufactured goods.

What does any of this hafta do with NAFTA? It's just way too simple to brush people's discontents about trade deals like NAFTA to automation or their failure to side with elites on how benign globalization has been (Hey, it's reduced prices! Cheap stuff, everybody! Stop complaining!).

On what to do next, read Lori Wallach and I here for ways to make trade work better for workers, and read Dean Baker here for a highly efficient read on at the costs of ignoring the downsides of globalization (of which the steepest is President Trump).


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Chart of the Week: The Potential for Growth and Africa’s Informal Economy



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Chart of the Week: The Potential for Growth and Africa's Informal Economy // IMF Blog
https://blogs.imf.org/2017/08/08/chart-of-the-week-the-potential-for-growth-and-africas-informal-economy/amp/

By IMFBlog

August 8, 2017

A street vendor sells roasted corn in Tanzania: Unregistered household enterprises comprise a significant portion of sub-Saharan Africa's economy (photo: Ton Koene/VWPics/Newscom)

By 2035, sub-Saharan Africa will have added more working-age people to their workforce than the rest of the world's regions combined. And this growing workforce will have to be met with jobs. In the region, up to 90 percent of jobs outside agriculture are in the informal sector. This includes household enterprises that are not formally registered, like street vendors or domestic workers. It also includes off-the-books activities by registered firms—for example, the taxi driver who offers a discount if the meter is not turned on.

As our Chart of the Week shows, the informal economy in sub-Saharan Africa is the second-largest in the world, after Latin America and the Caribbean. From 2010 to 2014, sub-Saharan Africa's informal economy accounted for 38 percent of GDP to the region.

Within the region, however, there is significant variation in the size of informal economies. They range from a low of 20 to 25 percent of GDP in Mauritius, South Africa, and Namibia, to a high of 50 to 65 percent in Tanzania and Nigeria. As the chart shows, informality persists even in advanced economies, which means that the shift from informal to formal will take many years.


What drives informality in the region? Survey data show that the primary motivation for starting an informal business is to fulfil an aspiration for the future. A third of new entrepreneurs in sub-Saharan Africa, however, report choosing this path out of necessity—most would prefer a job in the formal sector, but don't have that option.

The informal sector presents both opportunities and challenges: 

It acts as a social safety net. The informal sector provides employment and income to many people who might otherwise be unemployed in the absence of sufficient opportunities in the formal sector. Household survey data suggest that people working in the informal sector consume more goods and services than those in the agricultural sector in many countries.

But productivity levels are low. Firms in the informal sector tend to suffer from low productivity. In sub-Saharan Africa, on average, the productivity of informal firms is only one-fifth to one-quarter that of formal firms. These differences likely reflect a combination of lower skill levels among workers, and a lower level of physical capital. In a country where the informal sector is large, the rate of economic growth is reduced.

The informal economy provides much-needed jobs to a growing working-age population, but also constrains growth.

Countries need to adopt a balanced approach in the design of policies to grow to formal sector. This means focusing on ways to increase the productivity of the informal sector, while working to support the expansion of formal businesses.

Policies that improve access to finance, make it easier for small firms to enter the market, and increase access to electricity could go a long way in formalizing the informal sector. This will be key to creating the types of jobs that are most desirable among sub-Saharan Africa's expanding workforce.

To learn more, read the latest Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa and listen to a podcast featuring Ali Mansoor, one of the authors of the report.


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Labor is still losing

African American student loans, and other Brookings charts

Sunday, August 13, 2017

Enlighten Radio Podcasts:Podcast: The Are You Crazy Show -- Choosing a Therapist -- Aug 8, 2017 Show

John Case has sent you a link to a blog:



Blog: Enlighten Radio Podcasts
Post: Podcast: The Are You Crazy Show -- Choosing a Therapist -- Aug 8, 2017 Show
Link: http://podcasts.enlightenradio.org/2017/08/podcast-are-you-crazy-show-choosing.html

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Friday, August 11, 2017

Murphy Oil may be the last workers’ rights case the Supreme Court has the opportunity to consider



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Murphy Oil may be the last workers' rights case the Supreme Court has the opportunity to consider // Economic Policy Institute Blog
http://www.epi.org/blog/murphy-oil-may-be-the-last-workers-rights-case-the-supreme-court-has-the-opportunity-to-consider/

Yesterday, the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) filed its brief in NLRB v. Murphy Oil, which will be argued in the Supreme Court in October. The case will determine whether mandatory arbitration agreements with individual workers that prevent them from pursuing work-related claims collectively are prohibited by the National Labor Relations Act (NLRA). The brief makes clear what is at stake for workers if the Supreme Court were to rule against the NLRB in this matter.

The NLRA guarantees workers the right to stand together for "mutual aid and protection" when seeking to improve their wages and working conditions. Employer interference with this right is prohibited. However, increasingly, employers are requiring workers to sign arbitration agreements that force them to waive their rights to collective actions, and handle workplace disputes as individuals. In practice, that means that even if many workers faced the same type of dispute at work, each individual employee must hire their own lawyer, and must resolve their disputes out of court, behind closed doors, with only their employer and a private arbitrator. The NLRB has found these forced arbitration agreements interfere with workers' right to engage in concerted activity for their mutual aid and protection, in violation of the NLRA.

Read more


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