Links for 07-06-17

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Links for 07-06-17 // Economist's View
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2017/07/links-for-07-06-17.html

Voter Data Request Is Illegal, not Just Controversial - Regulatory Review Someday Congress Won't Raise the Debt Ceiling - Narayana Kocherlakota The Case for Housing Finance Reform - Jerome Powell Austerity Confusion, or why the Tories are trapped by austerity - mainly macro A review of labor market conditions - FRED Blog Who fears losing their job to AI and robots: Japanese survey data - VoxEU Foreign banks and the international transmission of monetary policy - VoxEUNever mind the flatness of the observed Phillips Curve - Nick Rowe A New Deal for the 21st Century - Yanis Varoufakis Money tree economics - Stumbling and Mumbling Fed Officials Are Divided Over When to Reduce Its Debt Holdings - NYTimes Freedom of Information Request - Jayson Lusk Transition to clean technology - VoxEU Growing, shrinking, and long-run economic performance - VoxEU
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The Montgomery County minimum wage impact study is absurd junk science

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The Montgomery County minimum wage impact study is absurd junk science // Economic Policy Institute Blog
http://www.epi.org/blog/the-montgomery-county-minimum-wage-impact-study-is-absurd-junk-science/

In January, Montgomery County, Maryland County Executive Isiah Leggett vetoed an ordinance passed by the county council that would match the minimum wage in the District of Columbia, raising the county minimum to $15 by 2020. Leggett then commissioned the consulting firm PFM to analyze the likely economic effects. The firm just released their study and their findings are so implausible that they border on the absurd. The study essentially concludes that raising the minimum wage in Montgomery County—even a small amount—would be the most devastating economic shock the county has experienced in a generation, more damaging than the Great Recession. To say that the study has methodological problems would be a gross understatement. No county official, business owner, worker, or resident in Montgomery County—and certainly not editorial boards of local newspapers—should give any credence to this report.

The report posits that the proposed $3.50 minimum wage hike over 5 years will lead to massive losses in jobs, income, and county revenues. Ostensibly wanting to present both the costs and benefits, the authors do also note that "increased wages are associated with improved mental health, reduced hunger, and decreased stress for workers and their families." Admittedly, I have only skimmed the full 145 page report, but one only needs to read the initial section on job impacts to see how flawed this "study" is. The alleged large negative outcomes for incomes and county revenues all stem from the jobs findings, so there really isn't need to read much further.

The report's methodology for how they calculate expected impacts on employment is completely divorced from any actual research. First, the authors go through a long discussion of other localities that have enacted higher minimum wages—such as the District of Columbia, Los Angeles, and San Jose, among others— which they refer to as "comparison jurisdictions," implying that the impacts of minimum wage hikes in these locations might provide guidance for how a higher minimum wages might affect Montgomery County. Ironically, they note that in virtually all these "comparison jurisdictions," studies that analyzed the resulting or likely employment effects of the local minimum wage showed that any impact on jobs was negligible. Nevertheless, the authors assert that Montgomery County is not a "twin" of any of these places, thus none of these chosen comparisons should serve as a guide.

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Reflections on a Xenophobic Speech

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Reflections on a Xenophobic Speech // Dollars & Sense Blog
http://dollarsandsense.org/blog/2017/03/reflections-on-a-xenophobic-speech.html

By Bill Fletcher, Jr.

Anticipating and sitting through President Trump's address to Congress last night was arduous, to say the least.  There are so many things that can be said about the speech, not the least being how many inaccuracies were mouthed by Trump.  I wish that I could say that was the most disturbing part, but it was not.

Trump's speech was the most xenophobic speech by a US President that I can remember.  If you took him seriously, barbarians are approaching the gates and it is everyone for themselves.  I actually wish that we could afford to make fun of him and his rhetoric, but there was a deadly seriousness to what was offered.

It was not just that Trump went after immigrants from the global South as the alleged sources of crime.  Nor was it that he reiterated the misinformation that terrorism in the USA is mainly perpetrated by people coming from outside of the USA.  It was the cynical manipulation of the relationship of African Americans and immigrants from the global South that really caught my attention.

First things first.  At no point did Trump mention the Russian mafia.  This is remarkable because they constitute the most feared criminal organization in the USA, an organization that has carried out multiple killings in the USA.  In listening to Trump one would have the impression that crime originates south of the Rio Grande.  It is also remarkable because crime carried out by immigrants, whether documented or undocumented, does not constitute the major source of crime and violence in the USA.

A second point is that President Trump is a bit fast and loose when it comes to discussing terrorism.  The major source of terrorism in the USA since 11 September 2001 has been right-wing, white supremacist individuals and organization rather than Muslim terrorists.  To this we must add that most acts of terror carried out by Muslim terrorists have been the acts of individuals legally in the USA.

Now, however, let's get to the cynicism.  Trump nuanced the xenophobia through playing up the alleged threat that immigrants from the global South constitute for African Americans.  It was no accident that Trump used examples of alleged criminal activities by immigrants against African Americans.

Just as the Trump administration is working overtime to split up organized labor, last night evidence was displayed of an effort to create a wedge between African Americans and immigrants from the global South, suggesting that such immigrants are our competitors as well as being a threat to our very existence.  This was smooth and well-choreographed, but clearly something that flies in the face of facts and, as such, was quite demagogic.

Immigrants are not closing down factories and other workplaces.  They are not the major sources of crime and violence in African American communities.  The immigrants that Trump wishes us to focus upon are those from the global South, many of who are coming to these shores as a direct result of the economic, political and military policies (and actions) of the USA.  This contrasts with why East Europeans, for instance, would come here.  And the fact that Trump never seems to get around to mentioning European immigrants is not representative of a memory lapse, but rather a calculated effort to focus the attention of non-immigrants on immigrants from the global South as our alleged enemies rather than focusing on the multi-national corporations and the capitalists who run them.

Hopefully we are not foolish enough to be played.

Bill Fletcher, Jr. is the former President of TransAfrica Forum.  Follow him on Twitter, Facebook and at www.billfletcherjr.com. 


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Xi Jinping: Working Together to Forge a New Partnership of Win-win Cooperation and Create a Community of Shared Future for Mankind

Xi Jinping, China's president, on Sept. 28 made his first address to the United Nations General Assembly.

He made some big announcements on peacekeeping; reminded the world of China's sacrifice in what the Communist Party has taken to calling the "World Anti-Fascist War;" promised that China is a responsible global power and emphasized its belief in the UN; and dropped the obligatory Chinese adage.

Below is the entirety of the UN's official translation (pdf) of his address. Read what Xi had to say for himself, keeping in mind that any such speech should be taken with a grain of salt, as the old English adage goes.

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Working Together to Forge a New Partnership of Win-win Cooperation and Create a Community of Shared Future for Mankind

Statement by H.E. Xi Jinping
President of the People's Republic of China
At the General Debate of the 70th Session of the UN General Assembly

New York, 28 September 2015

Mr. President, Dear Colleagues,

Seventy years ago, the earlier generation of mankind fought heroically and secured the victory of the World Anti-Fascist War, closing a dark page in the annals of human history. That victory was hard won.

Seventy years ago, the earlier generation of mankind, with vision and foresight, established the United Nations. This universal and most representative and authoritative international organization has carried mankind's hope for a new future and ushered in a new era of cooperation. It was a pioneering initiative never undertaken before.

Seventy years ago, the earlier generation of mankind pooled together their wisdom and adopted the Charter of the United Nations, laying the cornerstone of the contemporary international order, and establishing the fundamental principles of contemporary international relations. This was an achievement of profound impact.

Mr. President, Dear Colleagues,

On the third of September, the Chinese people, together with the world's people, solemnly commemorated the 70th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War. As the main theater in the East, China made a national sacrifice of over 35 million casualties in its fight against the majority troops of Japanese militarism. It not only saved itself and its people from subjugation, but also gave strong support to the forces against aggression in the European and Pacific theaters, thus making a historic contribution to the victory of the World Anti-Fascist War.

History is a mirror. Only by drawing lessons from history can the world avoid repeating past calamity. We should view history with awe and human conscience. The past cannot be changed, but the future can be shaped. Bearing history in mind is not to perpetuate hatred. Rather, it is for mankind not to forget its lesson. Remembering history does not mean being obsessed with the past. Rather, in doing so, we aim to create a better future and pass the torch of peace from generation to generation.

Mr. President, Dear Colleagues,

The United Nations has gone through the test of time over the past seven decades. It has witnessed efforts made by all countries to uphold peace, build homeland and pursue cooperation. Having reached a new historical starting point, the United Nations needs to address the central issue of how to better promote world peace and development in the 21st century.

The world is going trough a historical process of accelerated evolution: The sunshine of peace, development and progress will be powerful enough to penetrate the clouds of war, poverty and backwardness. The movement toward a multi-polar world, and the rise of emerging markets and developing countries have become an irresistible trend of history. Economic globalization and the advent of an information age have vastly unleashed and boosted social productive forces. They have both created unprecedented development opportunities and given rise to new threats and: challenges which we must face squarely.

As an ancient Chinese adage goes, "The greatest ideal is to create a world truly shared by all." Peace, development, equity, justice, democracy and freedom are common values of all mankind and the lofty goals of the United Nations. Yet these goals are far from being achieved, and we must continue our endeavor to meet them. In today's world, all countries are interdependent and share a common future. We Should renew our commitment to the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, build a new type of international relations featuring win-win cooperation, and create a community of shared future for mankind. To achieve this goal, we need to make the following efforts:

—We should build partnerships in which countries treat each other as equals, engage in mutual consultation and show mutual understanding. The principle of sovereign equality underpins the UN Charter. The future of the world must be shaped by all countries. All countries are equals. The big, strong and rich should not bully the small, weak and poor, The principle of sovereignty not only means that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries are inviolable and their internal affairs are not subjected to interference. It also means that all countries' right to independently choose social systems and development paths should be upheld, and that all countries' endeavors to promote economic and social development and improve their people's lives should be respected.

We should be committed to multilateralism and reject unilateralism. We should adopt a new vision of seeking win-win outcomes for all, and reject the outdated mindset that one's gain means the other's loss or that the winner shall take all. Consultation is an important form of democracy, and it should also become an important means of exercising contemporary international governance. We should resolve disputes and differences through dialogue and consultation. We should forge a global partnership at both international and regional levels, and embrace a new approach to state-to-state relations, one that features dialogue rather than confrontation, and seeks partnership rather than alliance. Major countries should follow the principles of no conflict, no confrontation, mutual respect and win-win cooperation in handling their relations. Big countries should treat small countries as equals, and take a right approach to justice and interests by putting justice before interests.

—We should create a security architecture featuring fairness, justice, joint contribution and shared benefits. In the age of economic globalization, the security of all countries is interlinked and has impact on one another. No country can maintain absolute security with its own effort, and no country can achieve stability out of other countries' instability. The law of the jungle leaves the weak at the mercy of the strong; it is not the way for countries to conduct their relations. Those who adopt the high-handed approach of using force will find that they are only lifting a rock to drop on their own feet.

We should abandon Cold War mentality in all its manifestation, and foster a new vision of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security. We should give full play to the central role of the United Nations and its Security Council in ending conflict and keeping peace, and adopt the dual approach of seeking peaceful solution to disputes and taking mandatory actions, so as to turn hostility into amity.

We should advance international cooperation in both economic and social fields and take a holistic approach to addressing traditional and non-traditional security threats, so as to prevent conflicts from breaking out in the first place.

—We should promote open, innovative and inclusive development that benefits all. The 2008 international financial crisis has taught us that allowing capital to blindly pursue profit can only create a crisis and that global prosperity cannot be built on the shaky foundation of a market without moral constraints. The growing gap between rich and poor is both unsustainable and unfair. It is important for us to use both the invisible hand and the visible hand to form synergy between market forces and government function and strive to achieve both efficiency and fairness.

Development is meaningful only when it is inclusive and sustainable. To achieve such development requires openness, mutual assistance and win-win cooperation. In the world today, close to 800 million people still live in extreme poverty, nearly six million kids die before the age of five each year and nearly 60 million children are unable to go to school. The just concluded UN Sustainable Development Summit adopted the Post-2015 Development Agenda. We must translate our commitments into actions and work together to ensure that everyone is free from want, has access to development and lives with dignity.

—We should, increase inter-civilization exchanges to promote harmony, inclusiveness and respect for differences. The world is simply more colorful as a result of its cultural diversity. Diversity breeds exchanges, exchanges create integration, and integration makes progress possible.

In their interactions, civilizations must accept their differences. Only through mutual respect, mutual learning and harmonious coexistence can the world maintain its diversity and thrive. Each civilization represents the unique vision and contribution of its people, and no civilization is superior to others. Different civilizations should have dialogue and exchanges instead of trying to exclude or replace each other. The history of mankind is a process of active exchanges, interactions and integration among different civilizations. We should respect all civilizations and treat each other as equals. We should draw inspirations from each other to boost the creative development of human civilization.

—We should build an ecosystem that puts mother nature and green development first. Mankind may utilize nature and even try to transform it. But we are after all a part of nature. We should care for nature and not place ourselves above it. We should reconcile industrial development with nature and pursue harmony between man and nature to achieve sustainable development of the world and the all-round development of man.

To build a sound ecology is vital for mankind's future. All members of the international community should work together to build a sound global eco-environment. We should respect nature, follow nature's ways and protect nature. We should firmly pursue green, low-carbon, circular, and sustainable development. China will shoulder its share of responsibility and continue to play its part in this common endeavor. We also urge developed countries to fulfill their historical responsibility, honor their emission reduction commitments and help developing countries mitigate and adapt to climate change.

Mr. President, Dear Colleagues,

The over 1.3 billion and more Chinese people are endeavoring to realize the Chinese dream of great national renewal. The dream of the Chinese people is closely connected with the dreams of other peoples of the world. We cannot realize the Chinese dream without a peaceful international environment, a stable international order and the understanding, support and help from the rest of the world. The realization of the Chinese dream will bring more opportunities to other countries and contribute to global peace and development.

China will continue to participate in building world peace. We are committed to peaceful development. No matter how the international landscape may evolve and how strong it may become, China will never pursue hegemony, expansion or sphere of influence.

China will continue to contribute to global development. We will continue to pursue common development and the win-win strategy of opening up. We are ready to share our development experience and opportunities with other countries and welcome them to board China's express train of development so that all of us will achieve common development.

China will continue to uphold the international order. We will stay committed to the path of development through cooperation. China was the first country to put its signature on the UN Charter. We will continue to uphold the international order and system underpinned by the purposes and principles of the UN Charter. China will continue to stand together with other developing countries. We firmly support greater representation and say of developing countries, especially African countries, in the international governance system. China's vote in the United Nations will always belong to the developing countries.

I wish to take this opportunity to announce China's decision to establish a 10-year, US$1 billion China-UN peace and development fund to support the UN's work, advance multilateral cooperation and contribute more to world peace and development. I wish to announce that China will join the new UN Peacekeeping Capability Readiness System and has thus decided to take the lead in setting up a permanent peacekeeping police squad and build a peacekeeping standby force of 8,000 troops. I also wish to announce that China will provide a total of US$100 million of free military assistance to the African Union in the next five years to support the establishment of the African Standby Force and the African Capacity for Immediate Response to Crisis.

Mr. President, Dear Colleagues,

As the United Nations enters a new decade, let us unite ever more closely to forge a new partnership of win-win cooperation and a community of shared future for mankind. Let the vision of a world free of war and with lasting peace take root in our hearts. Let the aspiration of development, prosperity, fairness and justice spread across the world!

Thank you.

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John Case
Harpers Ferry, WV

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The Washington Post: The robots are coming, this time to rural Wisconsin

The robots are coming, this time to rural Wisconsin
http://wapo.st/2hxhR3f

The Democratic Socialists of America hit 25,000 members. Here’s why this could mark a political turning point - Salon.com

http://www.salon.com/2017/08/05/the-democratic-socialists-of-america-hit-25000-members-heres-why-this-is-a-big-deal/#.WYWnf1rXdtE.gmail

Enlighten Radio Podcasts:Resistance Radio Podcast: Jamaall Craig on Trump speech to cops

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Blog: Enlighten Radio Podcasts
Post: Resistance Radio Podcast: Jamaall Craig on Trump speech to cops
Link: http://podcasts.enlightenradio.org/2017/08/resistance-radio-podcast-jamaall-craig.html

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