http://economicupdate.podbean.com/e/economic-update-rising-costs-of-capitalisms-failures-043017/
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Fresh off Big Oil's best quarter in years, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. may be poised for a repeat.
One-third of the way into the second quarter, crude prices -- the prime driver of explorers' profits -- are 25 percent higher than a year ago. If global supplies continue to contract and demand inches up through the end of June, the two dominant U.S. drillers will book a second straight quarterly victory in late July or early August.
Already, analysts are forecasting profit blowouts even larger than those registered when Exxon and Chevron disclosed first-quarter results on Friday. Exxon is seen lifting per-share earnings by 132 percent while Chevron is expected to post its biggest second-quarter profit in three years.
"It's cutting costs, it's getting more for every dollar you spend, it's getting more from each well and getting it out faster," said Brian Youngberg, an analyst at Edward Jones & Co. in St. Louis. "It just shows how these companies have had to adapt to a new environment."
Exxon, the world's biggest oil producer by market value, earned 95 cents a share during the first quarter, outperforming all but one of the 19 analysts' estimates in a Bloomberg survey. Chevron, the second-largest U.S. driller, swung to a profit in a big way, scoring its largest quarterly gain since 2014 and a per-share result that was 64 percent higher than the average estimate.
Brent crude, the benchmark for most of the world's oil, has averaged $53.82 a barrel since the current quarter began on April 1, compared with $43.10 a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
As charter members of the elite supermajor clique that also includes Royal Dutch Shell Plc, BP Plc and Total SA, Exxon and Chevron are among the biggest beneficiaries of the escalation in crude prices. Total reported a 56 percent profit increase on April 26 and if the trend holds, Shell and BP would post impressive results next week.
Exxon's profit surged even as oil and natural gas production fell 4 percent from the same period last year, according to a statement from the Irving, Texas-based company Friday. Exxon cut capital and exploration expenditures in the quarter 19 percent to $4.2 billion.
"In both cases, the earnings beat was largely from realized pricing rather than production," said Pavel Molchanov, an analyst at Raymond James Financial Inc. in Houston. "Pricing is always a proverbial black box for multinational oil and gas producers, and it is not something that companies can themselves control."
While benchmark Brent crude rose more than 50 percent last year to more than $50 a barrel, prices are down about 9 percent in 2017 as a resurgence in U.S. shale production threatens an attempt by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to eliminate a global oversupply.
In his debut quarter, Exxon Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods is focusing on prospects in places as diverse as offshore Guyana and the New Mexico desert to replenish reserves that last year underwent the deepest cut in Exxon's modern history. Woods' predecessor Rex Tillerson retired in January to become U.S. secretary of state. Two weeks later, the company announced the $5.6 billion purchase of acreage in New Mexico.
The company's board expects to make a final investment decision on the 1.4-billion barrel Liza discovery off Guyana's coast around the middle of this year, said Vice President Jeff Woodbury.
Profit from Exxon's overseas production climbed $1.51 billion, offsetting a loss from U.S. wells. U.S. crude output climbed 2.6 percent during the quarter as oil production dropped in every other region of the world. Exxon's cash balance was up 32 percent during the quarter to $4.9 billion.
First-quarter net income rose to $4.01 billion, or 95 cents a share, from $1.81 billion, or 43 cents, a year earlier, according to the statement. Exxon had been expected to post per-share profit of 86 cents, based on the average of 20 analysts' estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Chevron curbed operating expenses by 14 percent and drove drilling outlays down 30 percent during the January-to-March period, the San Ramon, California-based company said in a statement on Friday. The company reiterated plans to lift full-year output by 4 percent to 9 percent, excluding the impact of asset sales.
For Chevron, 2016 was a painful year. The company posted its first annual loss in at least 36 years and failed to replace all the crude and natural gas it pumped with new discoveries. As a result, Chief Executive Officer John Watson vowed to cut spending by 15 percent this year to cope with the lingering cash flow impacts of the worst oil market crash in a generation.
Watson has also said he's devoting 75 percent of the 2017 drilling budget to U.S. shale fields and other projects that will generate cash within two years. That's a titanic shift for an operator renowned for its proficiency in constructing massive, intricate crude and gas projects that produce for decades.
On Friday, the company swung to a profit of $2.68 billion, or $1.41 a share, in the first quarter, compared with a loss of $725 million, or 39 cents, a year earlier, according to the statement. The company had been expected to disclose per-share profit of 86 cents, based on the average of 22 analysts' estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
The profit result included a $600 million boon from an asset sale, which accounted for about 32 cents of the per-share gain, according to Bloomberg calculations.
"The sweet-spot of financial firepower -– and therefore higher returns to shareholders –- still requires significant price recovery," Alastair Syme, an analyst at Citigroup Inc., said in an April 19 note.
Dean Baker and Jeff Hauser
The Hill, April 25, 2017
Trade was a major theme in President Trump's campaign.
He repeatedly complained that our trade negotiators were stupid and therefore had negotiated bad trade agreements. These bad trade deals are the cause of our trade deficits, which have cost us millions of manufacturing jobs over the last two decades.
Trump made very specific promises to turn things around once he was in the White House. In "Donald Trump's Contract with the American Voter," his "100-day action plan to Make America Great Again" included two very clear trade-related promises:
"I will direct the Secretary of the Treasury to label China a currency manipulator" and "I will announce my intention to renegotiate NAFTA or withdraw from the deal under Article 2205."
As we approach the 100 day mark of the Trump administration, there is no evidence of progress in fulfilling either promise. Trump's failure to act on core campaign promises while he and his family continue to wheel and deal in the private sector raises questions about whether Trump is sacrificing the interests of his voters to the wishes of his business partners.
Trump's retreat on the currency issue with China has been dramatic. After meeting with China's President Xi Jinping earlier this month, Trump announced that there was no reason to press China on the value of its currency because it was helping the United States in dealing with North Korea. His Treasury department declined to name China a currency manipulator in its annual review.
While there are legitimate questions as to how China is now managing its currency (in the last year it has actually intervened to raise rather than lower its value relative to the dollar), Trump has essentially abandoned his commitment to force China to raise the value of its currency to make U.S. goods and services more competitive.
Without a change in the value of China's currency, it is very difficult to see how Trump could possibly make good on his promise to bring back the jobs we lost. It was always questionable how many jobs could be returned even if the dollar fell against the Chinese yuan. But if we don't even see the first step, there will be no progress in reducing our $300 billion trade deficit and increasing manufacturing employment.
However, if life is a series of "deals," there are reasons to imagine that Trump's posturing about China paid dividends both electorally and financially.
The fashion line of President Trump's daughter, Ivanka, is rapidly accelerating sales globally while being produced primarily in China. Ivanka Trump and the President have each achieved notable victories in the area of trademarking their names and products in China during the same period of time in which China and Trump have become more amicable.
The president's son-in-law, Ivanka's husband Jared Kushner, also has had cause to speak up on China's behalf. Kushner was on the verge of a $400 million investment from a Chinese insurance company (Anbang) with close ties to the Chinese government in a debt-laden Manhattan property of his until the deal collapsed under heavy press scrutiny in March.
In December, Kushner was negotiating with Anbang while also serving as the Trump Transition's point person in addressing China's "deep displeasure" at then President-elect Trump speaking directly with Taiwan's President, a violation of longstanding "One China" policy.
After that phone call, having seemingly secured China's attention, Trump as President returned to the longstanding "One China" policy.
There have been fewer fireworks in Trump's promise to renegotiate NAFTA, although it is certainly clear the promise has been broken.
The NAFTA agreement has an explicit opt-out provision under which any of the countries can trigger with six months notice. As of yet, Trump still has not given formal notice of his intention to pull out or renegotiate what he repeatedly decried as a terrible deal. Apparently it has not been the priority he claimed it would be during the campaign.
Insofar as he has raised issues with NAFTA, his list has not involved items that have concerned the deals opponents. For example, he has not indicated any intention of getting rid of the Investor State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) mechanism that provides foreign investors an extra-judicial process for contesting laws and regulations. The Canadian company that wants to build the XL pipeline was using the ISDS to sue the U.S. government for $15 billion after Obama denied authorization.
While key Trump voters across states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin might be upset with this reversal if they were aware of it, it's likely that veteran multinational business leaders surrounding Trump in the White House are happy.
And if we had full transparency into the operations of the Trump family business, we would know if happy business leaders are improving the Trump Organization's bottom line.
Dean Baker, co-Director of Center for Economic and Policy Research, which promotes democratic debate on important economic and social issues. Jeff Hauser is the executive director of the Revolving Door Project — a project housed at CEPR that investigates conflicts of interest in administrations and issues of transparency.
Tomorrow marks the 100th day of Donald Trump's presidency. EPI released a report examining President Trump's actions in his first 100 days in office and their impact on U.S. workers and our economy. The report reveals that Trump's top priorities include rolling back worker protections, advancing a budget proposal that would dramatically cut funding for the agencies that safeguard worker's rights, and nominating individuals to key posts—even to the Supreme Court—who threaten workers' wages, safety, and bargaining power. But, it is important to remember that President Trump did not accomplish this alone—Congress has been instrumental in advancing this agenda.
Congressional Republicans passed each of the resolutions Trump signed blocking much-needed worker protections. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), after refusing to allow Senate consideration of President Obama's Supreme Court nominee, set a new precedent in the Senate in order to confirm a Supreme Court justice with a record of ruling against workers. Yesterday, the Senate confirmed Alexander Acosta to serve as labor secretary, despite the fact that Acosta failed to answer basic questions regarding how he would run the Labor Department.
As we evaluate Trump's first 100 days in office, we should consider the important role Congress has played in helping the president accomplish his priorities. Because of the Congressional majority, federal contractors who violate labor and employment laws will continue to be rewarded with taxpayer dollars, unemployment insurance applicants will have additional hurdles to navigate in obtaining earned benefits, and workers will be more likely to be injured or killed on the job. The Perkins Project Policy Watch will continue to track the Trump administration and Congress and provide information on how their actions impact on our nation's workers.