Sunday, December 18, 2016

The Federal Reserve Raising Interest Rates Is Unwelcome and Unnecessary [feedly]



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The Federal Reserve Raising Interest Rates Is Unwelcome and Unnecessary
// Dollars & Sense Blog



 

By Thomas Palley

Cross-posted from the AFL-CIO economy blog. 

Wednesday's decision by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates is unwelcome and unnecessary. As admitted in its statement, investment remains soft, growth is only moderate and inflation expectations are little changed. Moreover, the economy confronts financial headwinds from the recent jump in long-term interest rates and an even stronger dollar.

The Federal Reserve seems to be relying on old economic thinking that should have been discarded after the financial crisis. That poses a danger the economy will be slowed before full employment is reached, putting a stop to workers reclaiming their fair share.

If the Federal Reserve is worried about financial market exuberance, it should use its regulatory tools and not the blunderbuss of higher interest rates. Financial markets must not be allowed to stampede the Fed into raising rates.

An alternative strategy for monetary policy is briefly described here:

The Federal Reserve Must Rethink How it Tightens Monetary Policy


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Defending Health Care in 2017: What’s at Stake for West Virginia [feedly]



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Defending Health Care in 2017: What's at Stake for West Virginia
// WV Center on Budget and Policy

With a new president and Congress, the health care gains made throughout the last six years face their greatest threat yet. Congress has voted more than 60 times to roll back the historic progress that has been made to expand health coverage to millions of people in this country and to improve coverage for those who already have it. These proposed changes will put the health – and lives – of countless West Virginians at risk.

Here's what West Virginia stands to lose if the new president and Congress move forward to upend our health care system.


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What is responsible for declining Labor share

Gates Llaunches own giant energy fund

I track the world's wealthiest people and their philanthropy. 

Billionaire philanthropist and investor Bill Gates is launching a $1 billion fund, called Breakthrough Energy Ventures, to invest in new forms of clean energy.

Gates has gathered a group of about 20 like-minded investors, including Silicon Valley venture capitalists John Doerr and Vinod Khosla, former hedge manager John Arnold, Amazon.com CEO Jeff Bezos, Bloomberg LP founder and former New York City mayor Mike Bloomberg, Alibaba founder Jack Ma, and a handful of others to join him in the fund.

In a post on his Gates Notes blog, Gates said the fund will invest in "scientific breakthroughs that have the potential to deliver cheap and reliable clean energy to the world."

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"We need affordable and reliable energy that doesn't emit greenhouse gas to power the future—and to get it, we need a different model for investing in good ideas and moving them from the lab to the market," Gates said in his post.

The announcement comes a year after the United Nations climate change talks in Paris, where Gates unveiled the Breakthrough Energy Coalition – a group of some 20 billionaire business leaders from around the world, plus institutional investors, who committed to investing in new forms of energy. The coalition partnered with Mission Innovation, a group of 20 countries and the European Union that pledged to double their investment in clean energy research over five years. Gates explained that some of the members of the coalition are investing in energy on their own, and others have joined him in the new Breakthrough Energy Ventures fund.

The investors in Breakthrough Energy Ventures have a high tolerance for risk and are willing to wait longer than typical venture funds for a return on their investment -- they're calling it a 20 year fund.  The group has spelled out five "grand challenges" which it says are the biggest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions around the world:  electricity, buildings, manufacturing, transportation and food. On its website the group spells out more specific technologies within each of these challenges in what it calls the "The Landscape of Innovation." For transportation, areas to explore include high-energy-density gaseous fuel storage, high efficiency thermal engines, and low greenhouse gas air transport.

Gates, the world's richest man according to FORBES, has been an investor in various forms of new energy over the years, as have venture capitalists Doerr and Khosla. Gates invested in Pacific Ethanol back in 2005, but reportedly reduced his investment three years later; he also invested in nuclear power firm TerraPower, which has been working on building a technology called a traveling wave reactor. Khosla's firm, Khosla Ventures, bet on biofuels, including a company called Kior,  which had a technology that was designed to turn wood chips into a biofuel that could be refined; the company was reported to have filed for bankruptcy and was selling off assets in 2014.  So far just a few of the clean energy investments have yielded technologies that are being more widely adopted or that have been financially very successful. That underlines the challenges this fund faces: It's not easy to select or develop successful new clean energy technologies. Yet Gates and others are optimistic that it's possible.

On a media call with Bill Gates, John Doerr, Vinod Khosla and John Arnold, Gates and others mentioned that there are lessons to be learned from the past decade of investing in clean energy. Gates highlighted the need to fail fast and not spend vast sums on large factories or refineries that might not work.  Khosla pointed out several successful investments in the sector, including smart thermostat firm Nest (which was acquired by Google for $3.2 billion in cash in 2014), energy efficiency firm Opower (which Oracle purchased for about $530 million in May 2016), and fuel cell firm Bloom Energy, which Khosla said is worth "billions of dollars."

Perhaps the most well known clean tech company is electric car firm Tesla Motors, which now sports a market capitalization of $33 billion. If the Breakthrough Energy Ventures fund can back several companies like Tesla (in other sectors), that would be a win. Doerr said the fund will invest in both early stage companies and growth stage companies.

Other investors in the fund include quite a few billionaire entrepreneurs: Virgin Group founder Richard Branson, Indian billionaire Mukesh Ambani, Saudi Arabian investor Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, hedge fund manager Ray Dalio, LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman, U.K. hedge fund manager Chris Hohn, Facebook cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his wife Cari Tuna, Chinese real estate developers Zhang Xin and Pan Shiyi, French telecom tycoon Xavier Niel, South African mining magnate Patrice Motsepe, German software entrepreneur Hasso Plattner (cofounder of SAP), U.S. finance titan Julian Robertson and Japanese entreprenuer and telecom investor Masayoshi Son.  See the full list of investors here

In addition to the investors, Gates said that companies like Southern Co. and oil and gas company Total would serve as strategic partners that will help the fund figure out whether it's backing technologies that industry will adopt.

Dec 12, 2016: This post has been updated with information from a 2:30 pm ET call with the media. 

Follow me on Twitter at @KerryDolan

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John Case
Harpers Ferry, WV

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I’m a scientist who has gotten death threats. I fear what may happen under Trump. - The Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/this-is-what-the-coming-attack-on-climate-science-could-look-like/2016/12/16/e015cc24-bd8c-11e6-94ac-3d324840106c_story.html?utm_term=.05741fd1fa08


 December 16

 Michael E. Mann is a professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center at Penn State University. He co-authored, with Washington Post cartoonist Tom Toles, "The Madhouse Effect: How Climate Change Denial Is Threatening Our Planet, Destroying Our Politics, and Driving Us Crazy."

My Penn State colleagues looked with horror at the police tape across my office door.

I had been opening mail at my desk that afternoon in August 2010 when a dusting of white powder fell from the folds of a letter. I dropped the letter, held my breath and slipped out the door as swiftly as I could, shutting it behind me. First I went to the bathroom to scrub my hands. Then I called the police.

It turned out to be cornstarch, not anthrax. And it was just one in a long series of threats I've received since the late 1990s, when my research illustrated the unprecedented nature of global warming, producing an upward-trending temperature curve whose shape has been likened to a hockey stick.

I've faced hostile investigations by politicians, demands for me to be fired from my job, threats against my life and even threats against my family. Those threats have diminished in recent years, as man-made climate change has become recognized as the overwhelming scientific consensus and as climate science has received the support of the federal government. But with the coming Trump administration, my colleagues and I are steeling ourselves for a renewed onslaught of intimidation, from inside and outside government. It would be bad for our work and bad for our planet.

Trump's Transition: Who is Scott Pruitt?

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President-elect Donald Trump is nominating Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt for administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency. Here's what you need to know about him. (Video: Sarah Parnass, Osman Malik, Danielle Kunitz, Deirdra O'Regan, Adriana Usero/Photo: Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

Donald Trump, of course, famously dismissed global warming as a Chinese hoax and "a big scam for a lot of people to make a lot of money." This month, he framed his position on climate change as "nobody really knows — it's not something that's so hard and fast." He has vowed to cancel U.S. participation in the Paris climate agreement and threatened to block the Clean Power Plan, a measure to reduce carbon emissions in the power sector.

The strong anti-science bent of his advisers is similarly ominous. Among the members of his Environmental Protection Agency transition team are some of the most notorious climate change deniers. One adviser has threatened to cut NASA's entire climate research program , disparaging it, with no apparent sense of irony, as "heavily politicized."

Trump's nominee for energy secretary, Rick Perry, wrote in his 2010 book that "we have been experiencing a cooling trend" (in reality, 2016 will go down as the third consecutive record-breaking year for global temperatures), and when he was governor of Texas, his administration removed all references to climate change from a report on rising sea levels. Trump's proposed interior secretary, Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.), plays down climate change as "not proven science" and has a dismal record on the environment, voting again and again in favor of the fossil fuel industry. Rex Tillerson, Trump's choice for secretary of state, represents those interests even more directly as the chief executive of ExxonMobil.

And then there's Scott Pruitt, the attorney general of Oklahoma and Trump's pick for EPA administrator. When it comes to fossil fuel advocacy and climate inaction, Pruitt checks all the boxes. He has received substantial campaign funding from the oil and gas industry and is a self-professed "leading advocate against the EPA's activist agenda." Among the various lawsuits he has brought against the agency is his current suit against the Clean Power Plan. Fox, meet henhouse.

But it is the disrespect Pruitt displays for science that my colleagues and I find most distressing. Consider this statement from a commentary he published this year in National Review: "Scientists continue to disagree about the degree and extent of global warming and its connection to the actions of mankind. That debate should be encouraged — in classrooms, public forums, and the halls of Congress." The assertion betrays profound ignorance of the state of our scientific knowledge (which is that climate change is real, human-caused and already disruptive). Even more pernicious, Pruitt actively encourages others to promote that ignorance, even to children, who will most bear the brunt of unmitigated climate change.

Add to all this the Trump transition team's alarming request that the Energy Department identify employees and contractors who have been involved in climate meetings during the Obama administration. Trump's people backed away from the request Wednesday, stating that it had not been authorized. Still, it was enough to prompt a massive effort to archive government climate datain ways that would protect it from Trump administration tampering. It was enough to motivate my fellow climate scientists and me at an annual meeting in San Francisco this past week to stage a rally in support of science. "This is a frightening moment," Harvard professor Naomi Oreskes told the crowd. "We have seen in the last few weeks how the reins of the federal government are being handed over to the fossil fuel industry."

We are afraid that four (possibly eight) years of denial and delay might commit the planet to not just feet, but yards, of sea level rise, massive coastal flooding (made worse by more frequent Katrina and Sandy-like storms), historic deluges, and summer after summer of devastating heat and drought across the country.

We also fear an era of McCarthyist attacks on our work and our integrity. It's easy to envision, because we've seen it all before. We know we could be hauled into Congress to face hostile questioning from climate change deniers. We know we could be publicly vilified by politicians. We know we could be at the receiving end of federal subpoenas demanding our personal emails. We know we could see our research grants audited or revoked.

I faced all of those things a decade ago, the last time Republicans had full control of our government.

Before an important climate bill vote in 2005, Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.) — sometimes called "Senator Snowball" for his stunt introducing a snowball on the Senate floor as ostensible evidence against global warming — attacked me by name in a Senate speech, maligning my research methods and findings.

Later that year, Rep. Joe Barton (R-Tex.), then chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee — like Inhofe, a leading recipient of fossil fuel funding, and known for his apology to BPafter the Deepwater Horizon Gulf of Mexico oil spill — threatened a congressional subpoenaagainst me to obtain all the correspondence, notes and back-of-the-napkin scribbles spanning my entire career.

I've also been harassed at the state level. In Pennsylvania, an organization funded by conservative Richard Mellon Scaife persuaded Republican state senators to threaten to hold my university's funding hostage until "appropriate action" was taken against me. In Virginia, then-Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, a tea party Republican, sued the University of Virginia for all my personal emails from when I was teaching there. After Cuccinelli was unsuccessful, a Koch brothers-funded front group attempted to sue for the same emails. That effort, too, was ultimately blocked by the Virginia Supreme Court, which ruled that unpublished research should be protected in the interest of academic freedom.

In all, I've been through roughly a dozen investigations prompted by climate change deniers. Each time, I've been exonerated. Investigators find that my methods are sound and my data is replicable. (And, indeed, I've been recognized by the scientific community with numerous awards and accolades for my work.) But by then, much time has been lost, expense has been incurred and I've endured abuse and vilification.

And then there have been the threats of violence. I've received email warnings that "the public will come after you," suggesting that I'll find myself "six feet under" and hoping to read that I had "committed suicide."

Such threats could spike again under a president and Congress hostile to climate science. As we've seen recently, a segment of Americans is receptive to fake news, and some are eager to act on it. Wild conspiracy theories have propelled a woman to make death threats against the parent of a child killed at Sandy Hook Elementary and motivated a man to discharge an assault rifle in a family pizza restaurant in Washington.

I fear the chill that could descend. I worry especially that younger scientists might be deterred from going into climate research (or any topic where scientific findings can prove inconvenient to powerful vested interests). As someone who has weathered many attacks, I would urge these scientists to have courage.

The fate of the planet hangs in the balance.

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