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Two Things to Keep in Mind about Allegations of Russian Interference in the US Election
// EconoSpeak
This weekend we're being treated to claims the CIA is convinced the Russian government used its hacking prowess to support Trump's election this year, along with equally vehement claims that, in the absence of publicly provided evidence, we have every reason to be skeptical of US intelligence assertions.
Do I have any more access to the intelligence backstory than you do? No. But from what I do know, I suggest two starting points for making sense of this tangle.
1. To the extent they have evidence for their claims, US intelligence agencies are unable to reveal them. The specifics of this evidence would make it clear what methods were used to obtain it, which would make those methods worthless from that point on. Moreover, the techniques for acquiring defensive information on how US sites have been hacked are largely the same as those used for the US hacking of foreign sites. If the disclosures were only defensive in nature, a stronger case could be made that it is in the interest of the intel folks to come clean, but they are unlikely to disavail themselves of offensive weapons.
2. Security breaches of the type exemplified by possible Russian hacking of the RNC, DNC and other sites are likely commonplace; they certainly occur much more often than reported. (It is not in the interest of hacked entities to publicize this fact unless their hand is forced. They may not even know it has happened.) Before we bewail our victim status, however, we should note that the US government, and private and semi-private actors in the US, play this game like everyone else. In the end, if the allegations about Russia are true, what we have experienced in this country is a PSYOP action not so dissimilar in intent and effect from similar actions launched from here.
I'd like to see a debate over whether aggressive exploitation of foreign cyber vulnerabilities by US agencies comes at the expense of domestic cybersecurity and the security of the overall transnational system. The US has enjoyed first mover advantage in many areas of weaponized technology, but the long term consequence is, or will be, that these methods will eventually return to threaten us.
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Tuesday, December 13, 2016
Re: [socialist-econ] Two Things to Keep in Mind about Allegations of Russian Interference in the US Election [feedly]
Re: [socialist-econ] Two Things to Keep in Mind about Allegations of Russian Interference in the US Election [feedly]
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Two Things to Keep in Mind about Allegations of Russian Interference in the US Election
// EconoSpeak
This weekend we're being treated to claims the CIA is convinced the Russian government used its hacking prowess to support Trump's election this year, along with equally vehement claims that, in the absence of publicly provided evidence, we have every reason to be skeptical of US intelligence assertions.
Do I have any more access to the intelligence backstory than you do? No. But from what I do know, I suggest two starting points for making sense of this tangle.
1. To the extent they have evidence for their claims, US intelligence agencies are unable to reveal them. The specifics of this evidence would make it clear what methods were used to obtain it, which would make those methods worthless from that point on. Moreover, the techniques for acquiring defensive information on how US sites have been hacked are largely the same as those used for the US hacking of foreign sites. If the disclosures were only defensive in nature, a stronger case could be made that it is in the interest of the intel folks to come clean, but they are unlikely to disavail themselves of offensive weapons.
2. Security breaches of the type exemplified by possible Russian hacking of the RNC, DNC and other sites are likely commonplace; they certainly occur much more often than reported. (It is not in the interest of hacked entities to publicize this fact unless their hand is forced. They may not even know it has happened.) Before we bewail our victim status, however, we should note that the US government, and private and semi-private actors in the US, play this game like everyone else. In the end, if the allegations about Russia are true, what we have experienced in this country is a PSYOP action not so dissimilar in intent and effect from similar actions launched from here.
I'd like to see a debate over whether aggressive exploitation of foreign cyber vulnerabilities by US agencies comes at the expense of domestic cybersecurity and the security of the overall transnational system. The US has enjoyed first mover advantage in many areas of weaponized technology, but the long term consequence is, or will be, that these methods will eventually return to threaten us.
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The Democratic Party’s “Centrist” Leaders Remain Clueless [feedly]
http://dollarsandsense.org/blog/2016/12/the-democratic-partys-centrist-leaders-remain-clueless.htmlBy William K. Black
Cross-posted at New Economic Perspectives.
On December 10, 2016, a New York Times article entitled "Democrats Have a New Message: It's the Economy First" that unintentionally revealed that the Party's "centrist" leadership and the paper remain clueless about how to improve the economy and why the "centrist" leadership needs to end its long war against the working class. This is how the paper explained the five "centrist" leaders' framing of the problem.
It was a blunt, plain-spoken set of senators who gathered last Monday at the Washington home of Senator Heidi Heitkamp, Democrat of North Dakota, dining on Chinese food as they vented frustration about the missteps of the Democratic Party.
To this decidedly centrist group, the 2016 election was nothing short of a fiasco: final proof that its national party had grown indifferent to the rural, more conservative areas represented by Democrats like Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Joe Donnelly of Indiana and Jon Tester of Montana, who attended the dinner. All face difficult re-election races in 2018.
This non-centrist group was a gathering of five New Democrats. President Obama self-identified himself as a New Democrat. The Clintons and Al Gore are leaders of the New Democrats. The leadership of the Democratic National Committee was, and remains, New Democrats. On economic issues such as austerity, jobs, and full employment, the New Democrats are far more extreme than the (stated) views of Donald Trump. The New Democrats are infamous for their close ties with Wall Street. This means that the paper's description of the Chinese nosh is as clueless as the five New Democrats kvetching about policy "missteps" that they championed for decades. Of course, neither the paper nor the non-centrists mentioned that critical fact. The blindness of the non-centrists to the fact that it is their policies that launched the long war by the New Democrats against the working class is matched by the blindness of the paper.
The kvetching may have been "blunt," but it was also dishonest. The five New Democrats know that they will likely be replaced in the 2018 elections by Republicans who share the New Democrats' anti-working class dogmas. What was really going on was an extended cry of pain about the five senators' fear of losing their jobs.
Note that the paper never tells you what the five New Democrats so bluntly identified as the New Democrats' "missteps" or what new policies they believed needed to be adopted by the Party. This failure is particularly bizarre because the paper says that its reportage is based on sources that the paper agreed to keep anonymous so that they could speak frankly about this meeting over Chinese food. That combination of supposed frankness from the sources gained by the grant of anonymity so them could describe in detail the purported bluntness by the gang of five should have produced some epic, specific condemnations of the Democratic Party's leadership by the New Democrats. Instead, it produced mush. Focusing on the "economy" is the right general idea for any political party, but it is so general a word that it is close to meaningless without identifying the specific policy changes that the five New Democrats now support and oppose. The mushy reportage provides a thin gruel to the reader.
Most of all, they lamented, Democrats had simply failed to offer a clarion message about the economy with appeal to all 50 states.
"Why did the working people, who have always been our base, turn away?" Mr. Manchin said in an interview, recounting the tenor of the dinner conversation.
And the "clarion message about the economy" that they proposed that the Democratic Party make was? You would have thought that little detail would (a) be critical to the article and (b) would be something that the five New Democrats would have been eager to publicize without any need for anonymity. Conversely, if even after the disastrous election, from their perspective, the five New Democrats could not compose that "clarion" call, then the real problem is that the New Democrats' economic dogmas prevent them from supporting such a "clarion" pro-worker policy.
The second sentence of the quotation is equally embarrassing to the New Democrats. It purportedly recounts "the tenor of the dinner conversation." The first obvious question is – how did each of these five New Democrats answer that that question? That is what the readers would want to know. Even with the grants of anonymity to multiple sources the paper inexplicably presents only the vaguest hints as to the five senators' explanation for why the New Democrats waged their long war on the working class.
Notice also the unintentional humor of the five New Democrats finally asking themselves this existential question in 2016 – after the election. The New Democrats began their long war on the working class over 30 years ago. Tom Frank published his famous (initial) book warning that the New Democrats' war on the working class would prove disastrous in 2004. The five New Democrats are shocked, shocked that the working class, after 30 years of being abused by the New Democrats' anti-worker policies and after being vilified for decades by the New Democrats, overwhelmingly voted against the Nation's most prominent New Democrat, Hillary Clinton. None of the five New Democrats appears to have a clue, even after the 2016 election, why this happened.
The article and the five New Democrats fail to discuss the anti-working class policies that they have championed for decades. Job security is the paramount issue that drives voting by many members of the working class. The New Democrats and the Old Republicans share a devotion to the two greatest threats to working class job security – austerity and the faux free trade deals. This makes it ironic that the paper sought out the Party faction leaders who have been so wrong for so long as supposedly being the unique source of providing the right answers now. If the five New Democrats had engaged in introspection and were prepared to discuss their disastrous, repeated policy failures that would have been valuable, but the New Democrats admit to making zero errors in the article.
The paper's understanding of economics and jobs is so poor that it wrote this clunker.
But even liberals believe Democrats must work harder to compete for voters who lean to the right, if only to shave a few points off the Republican Party's margin of victory in rural America. In some cases, they said, that may mean embracing candidates who hold wildly different views from the national party on certain core priorities.
First, the phrase and the implicit logic in the use of the phrase "even liberals" reverses reality. It is progressives who have consistently called for the Democratic Party to return to its role as a party that champions working people.
Second, the issue is generally not who "leans to the right." Indeed, the 2016 election should have made clear to the paper the severe limits on the usefulness of the terms "right" and "left" in explaining U.S. elections. Jobs are not a right v. left issue.
Third, the paramount policy priority – jobs – is the same regardless of whether one focuses on economic or political desirability. So, how long does it take for the article, and the five New Democrats to discuss "jobs?" Given the fact that they vented at length about the fear that they would begin to lose their jobs within two years, the subject of job security should have been paramount to the five New Democrats. The article, however, never even mentioned jobs or any of the related critical concepts – austerity, the faux trade deals, or the refusal to provide full employment. Further, the article did not comment on the failure of the New Democrats to even mention these any of these four concepts.
"A Clarion Message about the Economy with Appeal to all 50 States"
Here is UMKC's economics department's long-standing proposal to every American political party:
Our party stands for full employment at all times. We will make the federal government the guaranteed employer of last resort for every American able and wanting to work. We recognize that the United States has a sovereign currency and can always afford to ensure full employment. We recognize that austerity typically constitutes economic malpractice and is never a valid excuse for rejecting full employment. The myth that we help our grandchildren by consigning their grandparents and parents to unemployment is obscene. The opposite is true.
The working class wants jobs and job security – not simply income. Working class people overwhelmingly want to work. Working class males who are unable to find secure, full time work often become depressed and unmarriageable. If you want to encourage marriage and improve the quality of marriages, full employment and job security are vital policies. There are collateral advantages to providing full employment. Full employment can reduce greatly the "zero sum" fears about employment that can tear a society apart. Each of these outcomes is overwhelmingly supported by Americans.
Good economics is not a "right" v. "left" issue. Austerity is terrible economics. The fact that we have a sovereign currency is indisputable and there is broad agreement among finance professionals that such a currency means that the federal government budget is nothing like a household. The major party that first adopts the federal full employment guarantee will secure a critical political advantage over its rivals. Sometimes, good economics is good politics.
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Two Things to Keep in Mind about Allegations of Russian Interference in the US Election [feedly]
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Two Things to Keep in Mind about Allegations of Russian Interference in the US Election
// EconoSpeak
This weekend we're being treated to claims the CIA is convinced the Russian government used its hacking prowess to support Trump's election this year, along with equally vehement claims that, in the absence of publicly provided evidence, we have every reason to be skeptical of US intelligence assertions.
Do I have any more access to the intelligence backstory than you do? No. But from what I do know, I suggest two starting points for making sense of this tangle.
1. To the extent they have evidence for their claims, US intelligence agencies are unable to reveal them. The specifics of this evidence would make it clear what methods were used to obtain it, which would make those methods worthless from that point on. Moreover, the techniques for acquiring defensive information on how US sites have been hacked are largely the same as those used for the US hacking of foreign sites. If the disclosures were only defensive in nature, a stronger case could be made that it is in the interest of the intel folks to come clean, but they are unlikely to disavail themselves of offensive weapons.
2. Security breaches of the type exemplified by possible Russian hacking of the RNC, DNC and other sites are likely commonplace; they certainly occur much more often than reported. (It is not in the interest of hacked entities to publicize this fact unless their hand is forced. They may not even know it has happened.) Before we bewail our victim status, however, we should note that the US government, and private and semi-private actors in the US, play this game like everyone else. In the end, if the allegations about Russia are true, what we have experienced in this country is a PSYOP action not so dissimilar in intent and effect from similar actions launched from here.
I'd like to see a debate over whether aggressive exploitation of foreign cyber vulnerabilities by US agencies comes at the expense of domestic cybersecurity and the security of the overall transnational system. The US has enjoyed first mover advantage in many areas of weaponized technology, but the long term consequence is, or will be, that these methods will eventually return to threaten us.
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Bernstein: Why Not Cutting Taxes Makes Sense [feedly]
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Bernstein: Why Not Cutting Taxes Makes Sense
// Center on Budget: Comprehensive News Feed
A recent Washington Post op-ed by CBPP Senior Fellow Jared Bernstein — "Hey, here's a crazy idea: Let's not cut taxes!" — lists several reasons why we should slow the large tax-cut train that President-elect Trump may attempt to roll through Congress. Here's the first one:
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State of Working West Virginia 2016 [feedly]
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State of Working West Virginia 2016
// WV Center on Budget and Policy
A persistent question for those who pondered West Virginia's fate is a simple: why, in a state rich in natural resources, are West Virginians so poor? For more than a century several explanations have been developed by natives and interested "outsiders." Read full report.
This report, the ninth annual investigation of The State of Working West Virginia, comes at one of those times when national attention has been drawn to the state in the wake of the 2016 elections. In an even more unusual twist, much national discussion has focused around the conditions of our working class, an example of which is the surprise success of J.D. Vance's Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Cu lture in Crisis. This analysis is an effort to cut through often overheated rhetoric and look at the available data and at historical trends.
The report begins with review of the long debate regarding the causes of West Virginia's poverty. These have ranged from cultural explanations to those that emphasize the colonial nature of the economy. It will then proceed to look at current data, including a rigorous statistical regression analysis of the factors that contribute to the region's poverty. It will conclude with recommendations about how to effectively address it.
These are difficult times for the state, with the decline of our dominant industry and the related crisis of the state budget. We hope this effort will support the work of citizens and decision makers as we try to move forward.
Key Findings
West Virginia has historically been one of the poorest states in the country, with consistently low income and high levels of poverty, and this trend has continued to present day.In years since the Great Recession, West Virginia has experienced little job growth and elevated levels of unemployment.In recent years, West Virginia has replaced high-wage jobs with low-wage jobs, contributing to decades of stagnant wage growth.West Virginia's laborforce participation rate fell to its lowest level since the late 1980s in 2015, and remains the lowest in the country.In order to increase incomes in the state, West Virginia will need to expand its stock of knowledge by increasing the amount of innovative research occurring here, and by substantially raising the educational levels of West Virginians.West Virginia has suffered from a resource curse, and studies show states with a heavier than average reliance on mining income are likely to have lower incomes.Improving the state's labor force participation rate would make a big difference in the personal income of West Virginians.The trickle-down approach to state economic policy that emphasizes putting more money and power in the hands of the wealthy often fails to deliver stronger economic growth or a better quality of life.State policies focused on improving productivity and incomes for everyone can not only reduce negative outcomes for West Virginians but also boost economic growth over the long-run by building a stronger middle class.State policymakers need to focus on improving health, workforce participation, education, and job skills while also building top-notch infrastructure and encouraging innovation and entrepreneurship. This will require investments in physical and human capital, improving the state's fiscal health with additional resources, rewarding hard work with higher pay and better benefits, diversifying its economy with clean energy jobs, and supporting technology-based economic growth.
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TRIPS: The Story of How Intellectual Property Became Linked to Trade, Part 5 [feedly]
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TRIPS: The Story of How Intellectual Property Became Linked to Trade, Part 5
// TripleCrisis
This is the fifth part of a seven-part series with Peter Drahos, a Professor in the RegNet School of Regulation and Global Governance at the Australian National University. He holds a Chair in Intellectual Property at Queen Mary, University of London and is a member of the Academy of Social Sciences in Australia. In 2004 he and his co-author Professor John Braithwaite won the Grawemeyer Award in Ideas Improving World Order for their book Global Business Regulation. Prof. Drahos is interviewed by Lynn Fries, producer at The Real News Network. Find the whole series here.
Full text below the break.
LYNN FRIES: Welcome to The Real News Network. I'm Lynn Fries in Geneva.
This is part 5 of a series with Peter Drahos who is explaining the story of intellectual property linked to trade.
Joining us from Australia, Peter Drahos is a Professor at the Australian National University, in the School of Regulation and Global Governance. He holds a Chair in Intellectual Property at Queen Mary, the University of London. Peter Drahos is co-author of Information Feudalism: Who Owns the Knowledge Economy?
Welcome Peter.
PETER DRAHOS: Thank you.
FRIES: In Part 4 you talked about how the ownership of intellectual property rights is concentrated among very few key multinationals. And it's these incumbent players that profit from the TRIPS Agreement. In what other ways did the globalization of intellectual property rights concentrate power in the hands of these multinationals?
DRAHOS: One of the things that's probably not fully appreciated about intellectual property rights is that they are a form of private tax. So that a patent owner or a copyright owner essentially can require a producer say in a developing country, to pay a licensing fee before they can use the relevant bit of intellectual property whether that is copying a book, making use of a film or making use of the patent. Essentially intellectual property rights are a form of private taxation on innovation which is why they should be minimized. When you globalize I intellectual property rights you essentially put in the hands of the owners of intellectual property rights a global private form of taxing power. That's a pretty big form of power.
Now this effect people in all countries. But in developing countries the cost of textbooks for example, has a severe impact on accessibility. And of course it's not just textbooks in developing countries, students in the United States or Europe would probably be able to say a lot about the costs of textbooks they have to pay for. But chances are those students have more chances of paying for those textbooks than people in developing countries. So the basic point here is that if you globalize IPR you are in effect putting in the hands of multinational companies a form of private taxing power right across the board in relation to copyrighted goods, in relation to patented goods, in relation to trade marked goods.
We can see that citizens essentially pay and pay again. Public taxes support a lot of research and development in US universities, European universities and Australian universities. So we have a lot of research and development that's supported through public taxes. Now a lot of that research and development ultimately ends up being patented. Now through the patent system companies can levy private taxes as I said. Intellectual property rights are a form of taxation.
So goods that are produced or innovation that's produced at public expense is recycled through the intellectual property system and people in a sense pay the license fees, the private taxes, again. So it's a form of double payment both public taxes and private taxes. And this happens all the time. Think of for example books that are produced by university academics and those academics are paid for by tax payers. And then those books end up being published by publishers who basically collect fees from universities that use those books or parts of those books in their various courses. So the problem of copyright cartels essentially obtaining very high profits from recycling textbooks that have been produced at public expense is a very severe problem.
FRIES: An argument in favor of globalized IPR is that it's needed for innovation. Talk about your views on that.
DRAHOS: When we look at the history of innovation in most countries what we see is that public investment has played a hugely important role. That public institutes of research have been extremely important. Intellectual property is often confused with innovation but the explanation for innovation lies in states committing to the funding of basic research. And that's true for the United States. If we look at the history of the United States, the federal government of the United States has really played a huge role in promoting excellence in universities in funding public research.
Now intellectual property rights have some modest role in all of this. But the problem is that they've grown like topsy. They've grown out of control. These things march like Frankenstein through our economies. And that's the real problem. My argument is not that there is no role for IPR but what to be recognized is that governments have to commit to using public taxes as they have in the past to funding basic research and to funding universities.
And one of the great dangers in relying on the intellectual property rights system is that you are actually undermining public research, the very thing that historically has given us such great innovations whether in biotechnology or whether is areas of mathematics. The contribution of public research has been so profoundly important and now we are moving into a world where there is excessive reliance on intellectual property in the mistaken belief that intellectual property somehow promotes innovation. When in many senses intellectual property or the globalization of intellectual property is actually anti-innovation. One I think has to recognize the role of public investment in innovation.
An obsession with intellectual property rights can have unexpected repercussions on research cultures. And I think many scientists would say that the research environment in universities is profoundly different to what it was thirty or forty years ago. I mean scientists when for example when they were working on recombinant DNA technology as they were in the early 1970s publicly spoke about the dangers of recombinant DNA technology and they spoke about some of the advantages.
They were able to do this because they were working in public institutions. And in the United States public universities drove much of the research in recombinant DNA technology. Now I think if you spoke to those researchers many of them would say that these kinds of public discussions about the direction of research are much harder for our society to have because scientists worry about undermining the validity of a patent application for example.
FRIES: And what's the problem on relying on the international patent system?
DRAHOS: There are many complicated problems around patents. And one of the big problems is that patents tend to serve people who can afford to pay. Now if the patented commodity is a tennis racket that's not such a big problem. But if the patented commodity is a medicine that is a big problem because patents drive up the costs of medicines. And the way that preferences are measured is through the ability to pay.
And of course billions of people in the world do not have the ability to pay for patented medicines. So in essence the patent system is picking up the preferences of predominantly wealthy citizens which is why many diseases, tropical diseases, are essentially not researched. Because the markets in those patented medicines are not big enough. There are not enough incentives for pharmaceutical companies to enter those particular markets. So relying on the patent system to serve the entire globe, all the citizens of the world, is essentially flawed.
FRIES: It's not hard to see the critical need for public institutes of research but they are state funded and states are collecting less taxes. Which brings us to the role of intellectual property rights in tax avoidance games. Tell us about that.
DRAHOS: One of the issues that's confronting all countries is raising sufficient revenue. Getting companies to pay sufficient taxes. Now at an international level a perennial problem has been the issue of transfer pricing. This is basically where a large company transfers a particular asset between its subsidiaries.
So for example, a licensing agreement in which one part of the company licenses another part of the company to produce a particular good. Now the whole idea behind transfer pricing from a company's point of view is that in those countries where the tax is high, the particular subsidiary pays the most for the license. So in other words, it can claim the biggest costs for the purposes of the taxation system in that country. Now in theory, tax departments require that companies value the transfer of assets for the purposes of transfer pricing at arm's length.
Now this can work fairly well in relation to physical goods such as factories for example, where it is reasonably easy to determine the value of what the sale of the factory really is. It is actually very difficult to value invisible, intangible property. Trying to value what a particular license, a patent license, is worth is quite a complicated problem for a tax bureaucracy. Now the transfer pricing problem has been around for decades. And tax departments all over the world have struggled with it. And it's really led to this problem of fiscal degradation.
The taxation games that are played around intellectual property rights ultimately harm all states whether they are rich or poor. So there is a lot of concern in the United States for example that intellectual property rights are being used to shift profits by US companies out of the US tax jurisdiction. So the US Congress for example, a few years ago heard of examples of licensing agreements in which Ireland for example was used as a conduit to land profits in various tax havens whether in the Bahamas or elsewhere. So the problem of using intellectual property rights to shift profits to deprive states of a proper share of public taxes is a problem for the United States as much as it is a problem for China or for India or for Australia.
FRIES: We are going to break and be back with Part 6. Please join us as we continue our conversation with Peter Drahos. Peter Drahos, thank you.
DRAHOS: Thank you.
FRIES: And thank you for joining us on The Real News Network.
Originally posted at The Real News Network.
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