Monday, September 5, 2016

Poverty and Precarious Work [feedly]

Poverty and Precarious Work
https://workingclassstudies.wordpress.com/2016/09/04/poverty-and-precarious-work/

Given that many working people are also poor, Labor Day is good time to talk about poverty in the United States. But in this election year, with so much with emphasis on jobs, we should look especially at the relationship between poverty and the changing landscape of work and economic insecurity.

The organization and composition of work has changed dramatically over the last 60 years. Technology, globalization, financialization, and neoliberalism have changed the structure and experience of work. From 1950 through 1980, Fordism dominated economic life, and mass production in large factories and offices linked economic growth with material improvement for most Americans. But the Fordist organization of work was often fragmented, highly controlled, and mind-numbing. It counterposed stable employment and alienated labor.

Fordist production began to change in the 1980s with development of the less hierarchical, flexible production systems that included computer aided design, just-in-time inventory control, total quality management, leaderless work groups, downsizing, and subcontracting leading to corporate restructuring. No doubt, these new systems produced cost savings, improved efficiency, and made the quality of work life better for some while also expanding consumer goods and services for many Americans. Soon government organizations followed suit, embracing the neoliberal principles of restructuring and dramatically altering the delivery of public services and downsizing public sector employment.

In the most recent version of neoliberal economics, we've seen a rise in contract and informal labor, often called the "gig economy," "crowdsourcing," or the "1099 economy." Work today includes not only short-term contracts and uncertain schedules but also systems that pit workers against each other as they bid to do specific, often small-scale jobs for the lowest pay. The best known example is Uber, which seems to point to a future in which workers provide their own workplaces and tools and trade a fair amount of self-regulation for insecure incomes.

Neoliberals believed that changes in the organization of work associated with economic restructuring would propel economic growth that would, as the saying goes, "lift all boats." That didn't happen. Rather, we've seen wages and benefits decline for working people in both private and public sectors – as we've heard about throughout this year's presidential election, from candidates from all parties.

Instead of rising, many boats began to sink. Several decades into economic restructuring and neoliberalism, the poverty rate in the U.S. is higher than it's been since 1960. More than 146 million Americans live in poverty today. More than 100 million receive some form of public assistance, including about 46 million who receive food stamps. As The Economistreported recently, the poverty rate here is "higher than that of almost any other developed country." High poverty rates mean that many people go hungry, struggle to pay for housing, and have very limited access to health care.

Those living in poverty include many who have jobs. The Pew Research Center has estimated that over 20.6 million people — 30% of all hourly, non-self-employed workers 18 and older — earn something close to the minimum wage. To get by, many of these low-wage workers rely on Federal welfare. While a number of factors contribute to these high poverty and welfare rates, low-wage contingent work – the conditions fostered by economic restructuring and neoliberalism – plays an important role. Put simply, changes in work contribute to poverty.

Moreover, the continued informalization of work and contingent work relationships will likely exacerbate poverty and growing marginality. Guy Standing argues that we should consider the unemployed, underemployed, and the anxiously employed as a new class – The Precariat. They are, he argues, largely disconnected from traditional mechanisms of upward mobility or stable employment, and they increasingly depend on government support. No doubt some appreciate being freed from Fordist work arrangements. They may be willing to accept contingent work arrangements, work longer hours, or and receive Federal stipends in exchange for more independence.

But there is some evidence this attachment to contract work may be waning. A recent study by Deloitte found that 67% of those doing contract work would choose not to if they had the opportunity and less than half were satisfied with their overall experience. The study also showed that almost half of employed workers believed that they would suffer economically as independent contractors. While 41% understood that contract work provided greater flexibility (especially women) compared to full-time employment, more than half preferred full time employment with a steady income.

As we celebrate this Labor Day with end-of-summer sales and barbecues, we should not forget that the holiday was originally meant as a "tribute to the contributions workers have made." We should not forget how much has been lost – strong unions, stable employment, the promise that a hard worker could support a family, and the hope for upward mobility. In this era of precarity, with so many working people experiencing poverty, some for the first time, we should re-embrace worker solidarity as well as the simple idea that workers deserve both economic security, a livable wage, and respect.

John Russo, Kalmanovitz Initiative for Labor and the Working Poor


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Bernstein: Goldilocks rising: job market not too hot, not too cold [feedly]

Goldilocks rising: job market not too hot, not too cold
http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/goldilocks-rising-job-market-not-too-hot-not-too-cold/

Jared Bernstein

The pace of employment gains slowed slightly in August, as payrolls were up 151,000 and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.9 percent.

Despite the fact that expectations were for 180,000 jobs, the lower number in today's report should not at all be taken as a change in the solid, underlying trend in employment growth. First, note the JB smoother figure below, which averages out the bips and bops in the monthly data by showing monthly gains at 3, 6, and 12-month averages. Over the past three, payrolls are up 232,000 per month on net, and while the six-month average gets dinged by May's outlier 24,000 count, the longer term average is right about 200,000.

Source: BLS, my analysis

It is also the case, as I discuss below, that in recent years the first report of the August payroll number has later been revised up (perhaps due to seasonal adjustment issues).

But the broader picture suggests that, barring a negative shock, job gains of these magnitudes will continue nudging the US labor market towards full employment. However, while I put more weight on the smoothed values, the weaker-than-expected payroll number, along with a few other indicators in the report noted below, may give some of the more dovish Federal Reserve officials the evidence they need to hold off from a September rate hike, an outcome I would view as highly positive.

In fact, last night markets placed the probability of a September rate hike at 27 percent. This morning, post-jobs-report, it's at 18 percent.

Other indicators which may dampen the "craze to raise:"

–The underemployment rate remains elevated at 9.7 percent, where it has been for four of the past five months. My analysis suggests that's about a percentage point above the full-employment underemployment rate;

–Labor force participation remains low (the rate is stuck below 63 percent) and hasn't moved much in recent months;

–The goods sector shed 24,000 jobs last month with small negatives in all major subcategories, including mining, construction, and manufacturing;

–Average weekly hours ticked down slightly;

–Year-over-year wage growth decelerated slightly from 2.7 percent in July to 2.4 percent in August.

–Health care employment, typically a stalwart, added only 14,000 jobs last month, well off its average pace of around 40,000.

I'm somewhat concerned about weaker job growth in the goods sector—the weakness in manufacturing and construction have persisted over the past year. And the underemployment/non-participation problem remains a clear signal that we're not yet at full employment. But the downshift in payroll gains is no sign of a slowing in the underlying trend and, if anything, underscores (from the Fed's perspective) the Goldilocks job market: not too hot, not too cold.

August's seasonals: It's worth remembering that these payroll numbers undergo numerousrevisions as the BLS refines their initial estimate with more complete data. In advance of today's report, numerous analysts have pointed out that in recent years, BLS has often revised up the first report of the August payroll gain. The figure below shows the revision from the first to the third release of the August payroll change. For example, in September 2007, the jobs report for August reported a loss of 4,000 jobs. By the time the third revision was in a few months later, that number had been revised up to 93,000, a revision of 97,000 (93K – (-4K)), as you see in the chart. The suspicion is that the first report is missing shifts in the timing of back-to-school hiring. So coming months may reveal that August's gain was >150K.

Source: BLS

How might the Fed read today's report? With just two more employment reports before the November election, today's report will certainly get thrown into the political mix, but even more consequential is how the members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee will read the numbers. Based on a robust set of challenging economic dynamics that have evolved in recent years, the Fed's usual models and guideposts have proven less reliable of late. That's made it hard for Fed watchers to understand their reaction function to reports like this one. No question, they're close to another rate hike, and Chair Yellen has broadly signaled that unless there's a notable hiccup in the data flow, an increase in their target rate could be on the table for their September meeting later this month.

How does today's report fit into that mix? I'd guess it takes the probability of a September rate hike down to below 50 percent. A 200+K number would have sharpened the hawks' talons; the 150K number releases the doves.

And then there's inflation, the path of which provides the most compelling reason to chill.

Especially given the fog surrounding monetary policy right now—what's the natural rate of unemployment?; what's the neutral interest rate?; what's the slope of the Phillips Curve (the correlation between unemployment and inflation)?—the smart, simple play is watch inflation, actual and expected. The latter appears well-anchored and the former (using PCE core) remains consistently below the Fed's 2 percent target.

Researchers at Goldman Sachs (no link available) use a bottom-up model of inflation (i.e., modeling components of the core PCE) which does a good job of tracking the index. They forecast inflation to be 1.7 percent by the end of this year and 1.9 percent by the end of 2017. Assume they're in the ballpark.

Now, consider that the 2 percent target is not a ceiling but an average. If GS is right, expecting a month or two here and there, the Fed will have missed their target to the downside for about eight years by the end of 2017. Not only is that a remarkably long period of dis-inflation (and evidence of the challenges facing contemporary monetary policy). Especially in light of today's Goldilocks report, it's a strong argument for not tapping the brakes, allowing the job market to continue tightening, and overshooting the inflation target for a time to hit the average.

Still, what damage will a 25 basis point in the target range really do? Perhaps not much, but here's what worries me, succinctly put by Nobel laureate Mike Spence:

"But raising interest rates unilaterally carries serious risks, because in a demand-constrained environment, higher interest rates attract capital inflows, thereby driving up the exchange rate and undermining growth in the tradable part of the economy."

And who needs that? (Spence suggest that if we must raise rates, we should consider capital controls to block the inflows. That's a policy one associates much more with emerging economies protecting themselves from exchange rate volatility. But I'm hearing more people suggest it, as it falls out of the sort of analysis I offer here.)

So let's hope the payroll number dampens the craze to raise, which seems motivated more by "hawk management" personnel policy at the FOMC then sound economic policy.


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Global industrial policy and the middle income trap

http://www.globalpolicyjournal.com/articles/science-and-technology/early-view-article-industrial-policy-response-middle-income-trap-and

Supporting Glass-Steagal for the wrong reasons.

http://rooseveltinstitute.org/right-wants-glass-steagall-wrong-reasons/

At Labor Day, Let the EITC Help All Low-Wage Workers [feedly]

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At Labor Day, Let the EITC Help All Low-Wage Workers
// Center on Budget: Comprehensive News Feed

Bipartisan proposals to expand the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) for low-wage workers who aren't raising children in the home would extend the EITC's success to such workers in every state.

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Poverty, Vulnerability and Social Protection [feedly]

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Poverty, Vulnerability and Social Protection
// TripleCrisis

Jomo Kwame Sundaram

According to the World Bank, the MDG target of halving the share of the poor was achieved by 2008, well in advance of 2015, the target year. However, increased unemployment and lower incomes in recent times remind us that poverty is not an unchanging attribute of a shrinking group, but rather, a condition that billions of vulnerable persons risk experiencing.

Despite the various shortcomings of money measures of poverty, they nevertheless reflect the extent of vulnerability. For example, the estimated number of poor globally in 2012 more than doubles from 902 million to 2.1 billion when one raises the poverty line by 63% from $1.90/day to $3.10/day per person, suggesting that a very large number of those not deemed poor by the World Bank are very vulnerable to external economic shocks or changes in personal circumstances, such as income losses or food price increases.

Of the world's poor, three-quarters live in rural areas where agricultural wage workers suffer the highest incidence of poverty, largely because of low productivity, seasonal unemployment and low wages paid by most rural employers. Vulnerability and economic insecurity have increased in recent decades with rising insecure, casual and precarious jobs involving part-time employment, self-employment, fixed-term work, temporary work, on-call work and home-working – often mainly involving women.

Such trends have grown with labour market liberalization, globalization, and declining union power. To make matters worse, macroeconomic policies in recent decades have focused on low inflation, rather than full employment, while limited social protection has exacerbated economic insecurity and vulnerability.

Additionally, lower economic growth rates, following the global financial crisis, would push 46 million more people into extreme poverty than expected before the crisis. This figure was later revised to 64 million, implying over 200 million people fell into extreme poverty due to food-fuel price hikes and the global financial crisis.

While some of these figures were subsequently revised downward, they suggest widespread vulnerability and economic insecurity, due to the inability of governments to respond with adequate counter-cyclical policies and in the absence of comprehensive universal social protection measures. During the East Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998, the official poverty rate in Indonesia shot up from 11% to 37% in just one year following the massive depreciation of the Indonesian rupiah.

Working Poor

The working poor are defined as those employed, but earning less than the international poverty line ($1.25 a day in 2005 and $1.90 a day in 2011 in purchasing power parity [PPP] terms). Despite working, they cannot earn enough to get out of poverty. In most developing countries, most poor adults have to work, if only to survive, in the absence of adequate social protection.

According to the International Labour Organization (ILO), an estimated 375 million workers lived below the international poverty line in 2013. The number of working poor rises dramatically to close to 800 million when a $2-a-day poverty line is used. Women comprise the majority of the working poor, accounting for about 60%. It also found that progress in reducing the number of working poor has slowed markedly since 2008.

An estimated 1.42 billion people globally were in vulnerable employment in 2013, still increasing by around 1% in 2013, well above the 0.2% average increase in the years prior to 2008. The number was projected to exceed 1.44 billion in 2014, accounting for 45% of total world employment.

Social Protection

Most people who fall under the international poverty line are vulnerable, with no basic social protection. The lack of comprehensive universal social protection is a major obstacle to economic and social development, exacerbating high and persistent levels of poverty, economic insecurity, and inequality. Most countries do not have unemployment insurance or other similar social protection. In the most vulnerable countries, more than 80% have neither social security coverage nor access to health services.

The ILO's World Social Protection Report, 2014/15 found a high or very high vulnerability in terms of poverty and labour market informality. Only 27% of the global population enjoy access to comprehensive social security systems, whereas 73% are only covered partially, or not at all. This means that about 5.2 billion people do not have access to comprehensive social protection, and many of them – in the case of middle- and low-income countries, nearly half their populations – live in poverty. About 800 million of them are working poor, of whom most work in the informal economy.

Although 2.3% of GDP worldwide is allocated to public social protection expenditure for income security during working age, there are wide regional, national and local variations, e.g. ranging from 0.5% in Africa to 5.9% in Western Europe. Only 28% of the global labour force is potentially or legally eligible for unemployment benefits. Yet, only 12% of unemployed workers worldwide actually receive unemployment benefits, with effective coverage ranging from 64% of unemployed workers in Western Europe to just over 7% in the Asia and Pacific region, 5% in Latin America and the Caribbean, and less than 3% in the Middle East and Africa.

Globally, about 39% and more than 90% of the population living in low-income countries have no right to healthcare. About 18,000 children die every day, mainly from preventable causes. On average, governments allocate 0.4% of GDP to child and family benefits, ranging from 2.2% in Western Europe to 0.2% in Africa, Asia, and the Pacific.

Fiscal austerity measures since the 2008-2009 global financial and economic crises have exacerbated the situation. Such measures are not limited to Europe; many developing countries have also adopted such measures, including reducing or ending food and fuel subsidies; cutting or capping wages; more narrowly targeting social protection benefits, and reducing public pension and health care systems.

These are contrary to the pledges countries made in adopting Agenda 2030 for the Sustainable Development Goals which include achieving universal protection and health care. Not surprisingly, fiscal austerity measures, including cuts in social protection expenditure, have not helped economic recovery, but instead, have exacerbated inequality.

Triple Crisis welcomes your comments. Please share your thoughts below.

Triple Crisis is published by

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Manufacturing Job Loss: The Consequences of Malign Neglect of the Dollar and Chinese Overcapacity [feedly]


What does Scott recommend? A trade war with China? Isn't "leverage" against China the main objective of TPP? But Scott is against that, right?

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Manufacturing Job Loss:  The Consequences of Malign Neglect of the Dollar and Chinese Overcapacity
// Economic Policy Institute Blog

Today's Jobs Report from the BLS showed that the U.S. manufacturing sector lost 14,000 jobs in August and has now lost 57,000 jobs since January of this year.  This job loss is, in part, a consequence of the sharp rise of the dollar in 2014 and 2015, which has gained nearly 20 percent on a broad, trade-weighted basis, as shown below.  The rising dollar has reduced the cost of imports, increased the cost of U.S. exports resulting in growing trade deficits.  Growing exports support U.S. employment, but growing imports cost U.S. jobs, so the manufacturing decline was entirely predictable from the expected increase in the U.S. trade deficit, which responds to changes in the dollar with a lag of one to two years. Yet the U.S. government continues to do nothing about destructive exchange rate movements, whether they are caused by intentional currency manipulation or more recent, market-driven misalignments.

Data for the U.S. trade deficit in July were also released this morning.  The trade deficit in manufactured products (Exhibit 1S) increased 3.1 percent, year to date, relative to the same period last year, despite a decline in the overall U.S. trade deficit.  U.S. imports of petroleum products declined sharply in this period, while the trade deficit in non-petroleum goods (which is dominated by trade in manufactures) increased sharply. The single largest cause of the growing manufacturing trade deficit is malign neglect of currency manipulation over the past 20 years by the U.S. government.

China, which has been the most important currency manipulator over the past two decades, was responsible for nearly two thirds (61.3 percent) of the U.S. trade deficit in manufactured goods in 2015.  The trade deficit with China increased in July.  China has also distorted trade by generating massive amounts of excess production capacity in a wide range of industries, including steel, aluminium, glass, paper and renewable energy products. China's capacity growth has been fueled by illegal subsidies and other unfair trade practices.  A new report from Duke University explores the impacts of overcapacity in China's steel industry.

As the U.S. prepares for G-20 prepares for its summit meeting in Hangzhou, China, it is imperative that leaders prepare to confront China about its unfair trade and the massive amount of excess capacity which is distorting global trade not just in these industries, but in sectors that use these primary commodities to produce a wide range of downstream products such as electrical appliances, machine tools, autos and auto parts.  The United States also must come to terms with its sustained failure to address the currency manipulation, and more recently developed problems of currency misalignment, which I will address in a subsequent post.

 

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