Wednesday, October 21, 2020

CBPP:ACA Repeal Lawsuit Threatens Medicaid Expansion Coverage for Millions [feedly]

ACA Repeal Lawsuit Threatens Medicaid Expansion Coverage for Millions
https://www.cbpp.org/blog/aca-repeal-lawsuit-threatens-medicaid-expansion-coverage-for-millions

Aviva Aron-Dine

If the Trump Administration and a group of 18 states convince the Supreme Court to strike down the Affordable Care Act (ACA), its Medicaid expansion — which covers more than 12 million low-income adults across the country — would end along with the rest of the law. That would take health coverage away from millions, reduce access to care, increase premature deaths, and increase medical debt and uncompensated care costs, research shows. It would also exacerbate racial disparities in coverage and access to care, and it would harm children along with adults.

Oral arguments before the Court are scheduled for November 10. The lawsuit, which 18 state attorneys general filed and the Administration later joined, argues that an incidental effect of the 2017 tax law was to repeal the entire ACA — specifically, that when policymakers eliminated the ACA's tax penalty for not having insurance, the change made the entire ACA unconstitutional. While legal experts almost uniformly dismiss that argument as absurd, the case has made its way to the Supreme Court, raising a real risk that the Court could overturn the law.

The ACA's Medicaid expansion lets states cover adults with incomes up to 138 percent of the poverty line (about $17,600 a year for a single adult), with the federal government paying 90 percent of the cost (well above the regular federal matching rate for Medicaid) and the states paying the rest. Before the ACA, the typical state covered parents only if their incomes were below about two-thirds of the poverty line, and most states didn't cover non-elderly adults without children no matter how poor they were. If the ACA's enhanced federal funding disappeared, it's hard to imagine that states would provide meaningfully more generous coverage today than they did before the ACA — especially if the Court strikes down the law amidst an economic downturn that has fueled a major state budget crisis.

Twelve million people had Medicaid expansion coverage as of mid-2019, and the figure likely is significantly higher now due to the economic downturn: expansion enrollment rose almost 13 percent between February and July in states with available data, equivalent to 1.5 million people nationwide. The overwhelming majority of them would likely become uninsured if the Court strikes down the ACA. Overturning the ACA would also prevent the remaining 14 states that have not yet implemented the expansion from doing so, which could extend Medicaid coverage to over 6 million more people.

A large and growing body of research shows that coverage losses from ending expansion would cause severe harm, including:

  • Less access to care. Expansion has increased the share of low-income adults getting primary care, preventive care, mental health care, and treatment for substance use disorders, studies show. It's been especially important for the large share of expansion enrollees with significant pre-existing conditions, who have seen large increases in access to regular care and in prescriptions filled for conditions such as heart disease, diabetes, and depression.
  • More premature deaths. Medicaid expansion saved the lives of at least 19,200 older low-income adults from 2014 to 2017 in states that adopted it, while state decisions not to expand cost the lives of 15,600, according to a careful study by researchers at the University of Michigan, National Institutes of Health, Census Bureau, and UCLA. (Hover on the map below for state-by-state estimates.) Expansion was especially important in preventing premature deaths due to conditions responsive to medical care, such as cardiovascular disease and diabetes.
  • More financial insecurity. Studies have found that expansion reduces medical debtimproves households' access to credit, and reduces evictions, with one study finding that evictions fell about 20 percent in expansion compared to non-expansion states. Ending expansion would likely reverse these improvements. The effects would be especially devastating when millions of people are struggling to afford food, rent, and other necessities due to the economic downturn.
  • More uncompensated care. By increasing the number of uninsured, ending expansion would also increase hospitals' uncompensated care costs. Those costs fell by 45 percent as a share of hospital budgets in expansion states between 2013 and 2017, compared to 2 percent in non-expansion states, recent data show.

Medicaid expansion has been particularly important in expanding coverage for Black and Hispanic people and American Indians/Alaska Natives, so eliminating it would disproportionately harm those groups. Gaps in access to care have shrunk along with gaps in coverage, and preliminary evidence suggests that expansion has narrowed disparities in health outcomes as well, while improving outcomes for all racial and ethnic groups. For example, a 2018 JAMA study finds big reductions in the share of residents who died from kidney failure in expansion compared to non-expansion states, with larger improvements for Black people (who are at higher risk for kidney failure).

ACA Repeal Would Cause Large Coverage Losses and Widen Racial Gaps

And while ending expansion would directly harm adults, it also would indirectly harm children. Expansion has reduced uninsured rates and increased access to care for new mothers, research shows, almost certainly benefiting their children as well. And a recent study, based on another randomized trial, adds to the large body of evidence that Medicaid-eligible children are likelier to gain coverage when their parents become eligible.

The children's uninsured rate has risen over the past few years, with over 700,000 more children uninsured than in 2016. Ending expansion would be another major setback, undermining children's access to care and long-term well-being.

Map
Table

Lives Saved, and Lost, Due to States' Medicaid Expansion Decisions, Adults Aged 55-64

Expansion state
Non-expansion state
Early expansion state excluded from the analysis
State is party to lawsuit challenging ACA

Source: CBPP calculations based on Miller et al. supplemental estimates.

CENTER ON BUDGET AND POLICY PRIORITIES | CBPP.ORG

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Tuesday, October 20, 2020

Kate Bahn, Equitable Growth: Labor in the Boardroom: A Model for the United States? [feedly]

Good discussion of boardroom representation by labor' impact on bargaining power.
Labor in the Boardroom: A Model for the United States?
https://equitablegrowth.org/labor-in-the-boardroom-a-model-for-the-united-states/

by Kate Bahn

Under U.S. law, corporate boards of directors represent the interests of companies' shareholders. This is reflected in the typical composition of boards, composed almost entirely of people from the business world, with some from the nonprofit sector and other elements of the private sector mixed in. Because boards of directors oversee the management of companies, they have fiduciary responsibilities to look at corporate strategy, hiring, and other decision-making through the lens of how these corporate activities affect the interests of the corporation, which, in recent decades, generally means the shareholders.

One group that boards do not look out for are the workers whose labor creates value for companies. Workers matter to boards only as they affect shareholder interests. That is not to say that boards don't care at all about the health, safety, and well-being of workers. For one thing, they are obliged to follow the state and federal laws affecting workers. But generally, their interest in workers—how many there are, what they are paid, how they are treated—is confined to how such decisions affect shareholder interests, such as stock prices and fulfilling firms' legal responsibility for workplace protections and rights.

It does not have to be this way. Building an economy with broadly shared growth can include corporate policy that considers a broader range of interests, including the voices of the workers, who make companies operate day-to-day, in decisions about both short- and long-term priorities. It's possible that federal law can be changed, as it has been in more than a dozen European countries, to require corporate boards to represent the interests of workers, as well as shareholders.

How would this affect companies and workers? New research on Germany, funded by the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, by grantees Simon Jäger of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Benjamin Schoefer of the University of California, Berkeley, along with Jörg Heining of the German Institute for Employment Research, seeks to answer these questions. The co-authors examine how changes to so-called co-determination laws (corporate governance speak for worker participation at the board level) affected employment and earnings. Despite predictions by business interests that giving workers more voice may run contrary to sustainable corporate strategy, the three researchers find that companies with co-determination perform well, do not have any significant changes to wage levels, and are less likely to outsource business functions.

Policies such as co-determination are increasingly relevant to the United States, where wages have remained essentially stagnant for decades, despite a long-term increase in productivity, which suggests that workers are creating value but are not reaping any of its benefits. As the U.S. labor market becomes increasingly fissured, with rising domestic outsourcing over time, workers find fewer opportunities for advancement, and declining unionization rates decrease workers' voices. Furthermore, wage stagnation was largely resistant to more than a decade of economic recovery and a historic drop in unemployment until the recent coronavirus recession.

As U.S. policymakers consider how to address this problem, serious thought is being given to how corporate structures might be changed to take workers' interests into greater account—on the assumption that this could help workers get a larger share of the corporate pie. Clean Slate for Worker Power, a project of Harvard Law School's Labor and Worklife Program, is advancing an agenda of U.S. labor law reforms designed to restore worker power, including requiring worker representation on corporate boards. And legislation is before Congress to establish such a requirement.

To help policymakers understand these proposals, it would be helpful to know what effect such reforms might have on wages and employment, as well as investment and capital stock, corporate profits, and the long-term success of individual businesses. Research by Jäger, Schoefer, and Heining begins to answer these questions.

It might be difficult for people in our nation to think of corporate boards representing anybody but shareholders since this is part of American corporate culture and precedent going back to the 1970s. In fact, boards are very different in some countries. A case in point is Germany, where, for nearly 70 years, the law required workers to be represented on some corporate boards. While that mandate existed in some form going back to 1951, it was abruptly abolished in 1994 for new firms. But the mandate remained, and remains, for firms that existed before that date.

This sudden change in German law created a so-called quasi-experiment that allowed Jäger, Schoefer, and Heining to examine how labor representation in corporate governance affects workers and companies. Operating side-by-side in Germany are companies still under the mandate and companies free of it. This raises numerous questions. How do they compare? Does having workers on the board result in higher wages? Lower capital stock? Reduced profits? More bankruptcies? That is what conventional economic theory might suggest. The researchers' working paper, "Labor in the Boardroom," examines these questions, with some very interesting conclusions.

First, some background. Like many other European countries, Germany has a two-tier board system, a supervisory board and an executive board. The executive board is equivalent to the senior management of a U.S. company, with day-to-day operational responsibilities. The supervisory board operates much like U.S. boards of directors, with responsibility for the selection, monitoring, auditing, compensation structuring, and dismissal of the executive board. It is involved in strategic planning, large financial decisions, and other fundamental decisions about the company.

Between 1951 and 1976, Germany passed a series of laws that mandated supervisory boards of companies—other than privately held firms or limited liability corporations—be made up of varying levels of workers' representatives, depending on the size and type of company. By 1976, the largest corporations and smaller companies in the mining, coal, and steel industries were required to have workers' representatives comprising one-half of their supervisory board membership. Other companies had one-third worker representation. Workers elected their own representatives, who were always workers, except in the largest companies, where workers were permitted to elect outsiders to supplement workers.

In the United States, one might expect co-determinant boards to be contentious, but in practice, in Germany, when worker and shareholder representatives hold equal or near-equal power, they tend to operate by consensus. One reason might be the existence of works councils, which have extensive consultation, information, and co-determination rights in areas such as work hours, safety, and organizational or staffing changes, and can directly negotiate with the employer. Works councils do not exist in the United States, but they have a purview similar to that of labor unions in the United States, except that they participate in setting principles of wage setting rather than engaging in direct negotiations over wage levels, as U.S. unions do.

Only roughly 9 percent of workplaces in Germany have works councils, but they are overrepresented at larger workplaces. This means they cover 42 percent of employees in the former West Germany and 35 percent in the former East Germany. In part as a result of these structural differences, with works councils present at many larger businesses, there tends to be, in general, greater cooperation between labor and management in Germany.

In 1994, all this changed abruptly. The German federal parliament, the Bundestag, passed legislation exempting all new corporations from the worker representation mandate while maintaining it for existing companies. The rationale for treating old and new companies differently was that existing companies had already become accustomed to shared governance. Researchers Jäger, Schoefer, and Heining, however, say this was a legislative compromise between those who wanted to retain the status quo and those who wanted to abolish the mandate entirely. (The new law made no changes in works councils.)

To understand the effect of this change and to estimate the impact of co-determination on company and worker outcomes, Jäger, Schoefer, and Heining measured a number of metrics for companies incorporated 2 years before and 2 years following the change in law. This creates a sample of companies created under more or less similar economic conditions and average productivity levels, but incorporated under different legal frameworks. Thus, all the firms were incorporated between August 10, 1992 and August 10, 1996. Those incorporated before August 10, 1994 were subject to the mandate; those incorporated after that date were not.

To ensure the robustness of their findings, the researchers tested a number of factors to ensure that nothing about that particular time period distorted the results. So, they also compared these firms with publicly held companies that were subject to the mandate and then released from it in 1994, and with limited liability corporations, which were never subject to the mandate. This helped to ensure that any changes post-1994 were not due to overall changes in the economy or other outside factors affecting business more generally. Jäger, Schoefer, and Heining did additional testing of other potential factors as well to ensure that changes were likely due to the boardroom legislation and not other issues.

It's also important to note that the legislative compromise was unanticipated, and that it was implemented literally the day after it was both announced and enacted. So, there was no gap in incorporations just prior to the change in the law, which might have suggested deliberate avoidance of the mandate. And there was no rush to incorporate immediately following it, which might have suggested the same.

Generally, Jäger, Schoefer, and Heining found no significant impact on overall wages or employment. In fact, they found a slight increase in capital assets and significant upward movement in capital share, not labor share, due primarily to an increase in worker productivity. In other words, under shared governance, the same number of workers being paid essentially the same amount produce more value per worker, and that value is accruing to capital, not labor.

There does appear to be a significant reduction in outsourcing as a result of co-determination. Outsourcing is credited with decreasing average labor standards and worker outcomes across an economy. But for firms and their shareholders, the bottom line is that there is a slight increase in capital assets, and neither revenues nor profits appear to be significantly affected.

This also suggests that giving workers a voice in corporate decision-making does not lead to deleterious outcomes, such as bankruptcy, due to workers' potential differing priorities. Important, too, is that corporate policy doesn't affect only shareholders' bottom lines. Companies also employ the workers and provide goods and services to the consumers who are both the bedrock of our economy.

Research like this can only speculate as to the reasons for these results and how they might differ if shared governance on corporate boards were adopted in the United States. Shared governance has existed in Germany for nearly seven decades, so the management and workers of firms that remained under the pre-1994 mandate had essentially known nothing different. Results could be different if new corporate governance rules were enacted for U.S. companies unused to shared governance.

More research could give policymakers, workers, and corporate leaders alike a stronger basis for projecting possible outcomes. But this new research by Jäger, Schoefer, and Heining does suggest that workers being given a greater voice in the workplace does not lead to the negative economic outcomes purported by anti-labor critics, such as unsustainable levels of pay or workers embracing luddite-like resistance to technological change.

Their findings also might reflect the more cooperative labor relations that are prevalent in Germany, although it may be that those cooperative relations are partly a result of shared governance. The consensus nature of supervisory boards in Germany suggests that shared governance—over the long run—can produce good results for workers, companies, and the economy. Here in the United States, researchers could look at the experiences of worker-owned companies or companies with significant employee stock ownership plans (so workers are essentially shareholders) to see whether parallels with the German experience are germane.


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Monday, October 19, 2020

China's Rebound Helps to Stabilize a Shattered World Economy [feedly]

China's Rebound Helps to Stabilize a Shattered World Economy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-18/china-s-rebound-helps-to-stabilize-a-shattered-world-economy

China's recovery from the coronavirus slump continued in the third quarter and showed signs of broadening in September, keeping the economy on track to be the world's only major growth engine and validating Beijing's aggressive approach to controlling the pandemic.

Gross domestic product expanded 4.9% in the third quarter from a year ago, missing economists' forecast for a 5.5% expansion. Both retail sales and industrial production gained momentum in September, reassuring markets that the recovery is intact.

The numbers show China's early and fierce containment of the virus has set the economy up for a faster rebound than any of its peers. That's a rare positive for a global economy still clawing its way out of its worst slump since the Great Depression -- a revival further complicated by the resurgence of Covid-19 in Europe and the U.S.

China's quarterly GDP misses estimates but year-to-date growth is positive again

"It's an encouraging and hopeful message for the rest of the world," said Rob Subbaraman, global head of macro research at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Singapore. "If you successfully handle the health crisis, your economy can recover."

Retail sales expanded 3.3% in September from a year earlier, industrial production grew 6.9% and investment growth accelerated to 0.8% in the nine months to the end of the quarter. Strong import growth in the third quarter may have dented the GDP number, even though it's broadly seen as a bullish sign for demand.

Read More:A Dive Into China's GDP Details Shows Recovery Broadening Out

Output expanded 0.7% in the year to date, meaning that the world's second-largest economy has now regained all the ground it lost in the early months of the year.

Markets were mixed on the news. The CSI 300 Index of stocks, which last week was within 1% of a five-year high, slipped 0.3% as of the mid-day break in Shanghai. The yuan was little changed near 6.7 per dollar, after briefly trading at its strongest in 18 months.

relates to China's Economy Plows On as World's Only Major Growth Engine

Underpinning the recovery has been the containment of the virus that has allowed factories to quickly reopen and capitalise on a global rush for medical equipment and work-from-home technology. That export strength was offset by a recent increase in imports, depressing the contribution of net trade to output growth.

"That should not be viewed negatively," said Liu Peiqian, China economist at Natwest Markets Plc in Singapore, because the strong import growth suggests the recovery in underlying economic growth is accelerating.

The improving picture has come with relatively restrained government borrowing and central bank easing compared to China's peers. Instead, the government has focused on targeted support for business and the central bank on keeping liquidity flowing; today's readings suggest there's no need to change tack.

What Bloomberg's Economists Say

"The data -- on balance -- suggest there is no urgency for the government to add fresh stimulus, though the window is not completely closed for a rate cut by year-end. The focus is still on targeted measures. Heading into next year, whether the tax measures are extended will shape the optimal mix of fiscal and monetary policy. In the event fiscal support is rolled back, more rate cuts are likely."

Click here to read the full report.

Chang Shu, chief Asia economist

Central bank Governor Yi Gang said Sunday that China has "pro-active fiscal policy" and "an acommodative monetary policy to support the economy."

"Right now, China has basically got Covid-19 under control," Yi said in a webinar organized by the Group of 30. "In general, the Chinese economy remains resilient with great potential. Continued recovery is anticipated which will benefit the global economy."

Yet the recovery isn't without its holes.

Even with the virus beaten back, shoppers have spent about 7% less in the first nine months of the year compared to the same period last year. Services sectors including tourism, education and travel are continuing to lag.

"The economy is not entirely back in its strongest shape," Helen Qiao, chief Greater China economist at Bank of America, told Bloomberg Television. "The services sector is not doing that well."

China Growth Accelerates, Broadening Recovery From Pandemic

Watch: China's economic recovery from the depths plunged during the Covid-19 pandemic continued.

(Source: Bloomberg)

It's also unclear how durable the recovery will prove to be given domestic pressures from unemployment and rising corporate and household debt. China Evergrande Group, the world's most indebted developer, has rattled investors amid fears for its financial health.

Much will also depend on how relations with the U.S. evolve after November's presidential election. Any worsening of trade frictions could throw a spanner in the export revival.

Analysis of International Monetary Fund data shows the proportion of worldwide growth coming from China is expected to increase from 26.8% in 2021 to 27.7% in 2025, according to Bloomberg calculations. The IMF says Chinese growth is virtually the only reason it expects global output to be 0.6% higher by the end of 2021 compared to the end of 2019.

Getting the economy quickly back on its feet is crucial to China's global ambitions. They were hammered home last week by President Xi Jinping during a tour of tech-hub Shenzhen, where he doubled down on calls to take the global lead in technology and other strategic industries.

Urging an "unswerving" commitment to technological innovation in a period of "changes unseen in a century," Xi again promoted a need to become more self reliant, a policy that is expected to be a central part of a new 5-year economic plan that will be discussed at a Communist Party gathering expected later this month.

Nearer term, the return in consumer confidence has set the economy up for a strong finish to the year, said Natwest's Liu. "GDP is on track to grow further into the fourth quarter."

— With assistance by Enda Curran, Lin Zhu, Miao Han, James Mayger, Tian Chen, Fran Wang, and Matt Turner


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Bloomberg: Surging Imports Mask Strength of China's Economic Revival [feedly]

Surging Imports Mask Strength of China's Economic Revival
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2020-10-19/supply-chains-latest-imports-dent-china-s-gdp-revival

Sometimes a trade rebound can be a double-edged sword when it comes to gauging economic strength.

Take Monday's data dump showing China to be the only major economy in the world on a growth trajectory this year.

But drilling into the data, the numbers show that a surge in imports has acted as a counterweight against bumper exports. Gross domestic product expanded 4.9% in the third quarter from a year ago, missing economists' forecast for a 5.5% expansion.

relates to Surging Imports Mask Strength of China's Economic Revival

That's partly because inbound shipments surged 13.2% in September from a year ago, depressing the net contribution of trade to the calculation of GDP. Net exports contributed only 0.6 percentage point to GDP's expansion in the third quarter, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

That dynamic may not fade in the near term given that China's consumers are showing firm signs of resurgence — retail sales expanded 3.3% in September from a year earlier — while exports also stay strong.

Data last week showed that global demand for everything from hazmat suits to work-from-home technology has allowed China's products to win record global market share. That's a striking reversal from the first two months of the year, when China's exports contracted by 17.1%.

Francoise Huang, a senior economist for Asia-Pacific at Euler Hermes, calculates that out of the top 20 exporters in the world, China's total market share now stands at around 25% compared to an average of around 20% over the 2017-19 period.

With the U.S. election just weeks away, it's also worth reflecting how China has managed to build such a position of trade strength in the face of stiff U.S.-led protectionism. Such tensions probably help propel imports as technology firms stockpiled key components ahead of the imposition of sanctions.

The big questions now revolve around the sustainability of China's trade performance:

  • Will the resurgent virus in the U.S. and Europe slow demand for Chinese goods?
  • Will China's factories lose their competitive advantage as manufacturers in trading rivals get back on their feet?
  • Or, will China remain as the standout economic performer among major peers due to its early and aggressive control of the coronavirus?

While the yuan's strength could act as a headwind, for now, the balance of issues looks like the trade revival can continue, according to Huang. "We expect Chinese exports to remain resilient in the coming quarters," she said.

Enda Curran in Hong Kong

Charted Territory

relates to Surging Imports Mask Strength of China's Economic Revival

Global trade is staying on a winning streak. The Port of Los Angeles has kept especially busy over the past two months, and all 10 gauges on the Bloomberg Trade Tracker have sustained "normal" status since early September.

Today's Must Reads

  • Brexit mess | British officials are ready to water down Boris Johnson's lawbreaking Brexit legislation in a move that could revive failing trade deal talks with the European Union. Johnson has told the EU the U.K. intends to exit the bloc with a deal similar to Canada's or its setup with Australia — code for World Trade Organization terms.
  • Pollution solution | Nearly 200 countries are nearing a legally binding agreement to reduce pollution from the world's cargo ships, a step forward after two years of talks on how the industry should clean up its emissions.
  • WTO pitch | Nigeria's Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, one of two candidates to lead the WTO, said she wants the body to overcome its problems so that it can create a level playing field for international commerce and see a return to a multilateral system.
  • Equal measures | China passed a new law to restrict sensitive exports to protect national security, helping Beijing gain reciprocity against U.S. as tech tensions mount.
  • Millwork slows | Nordic forestry companies are shuttering paper mills at an unprecedented pace as the Covid-19 pandemic accelerates a long-running decline in demand.
  • Going local | Small companies are filling the vacuum for consumer goods as Iranians struggle to buy foreign brands, and "Made in Iran" has become a rare glimmer of hope for a nation cut off from the oil market and global trade while Covid-19 rages. 

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Saturday, October 17, 2020

Tim Taylor: Interview with Gary Hoover: Economics and Discrimination [feedly]

Gary Hoover's powerful testimony as an African American economist at the U of Alabama.

Interview with Gary Hoover: Economics and Discrimination

https://conversableeconomist.blogspot.com/2020/10/interview-with-gary-hoover-economics.html

The Southwest Economy publication of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas has published "A Conversation with Gary Hoover" (Third Quarter 2020, pp. 7-9). Here are some of Hoover's comments: 

On  his own career path: 

Although I have been successful in economics, it has not come without some amount of psychological trauma. When I arrived at the University of Alabama in 1998, the economics department had never hired a Black faculty member. Sadly, that is still the case at more economics departments than not. I would not call those initial years hostile, but they were not inviting either.

I stuck to my plan, which was to publish articles to the best of my ability and teach good classes. The pressures were there to mentor Black students, serve on countless committees to "diversify" things and be a role model. I took on the extra tasks but never lost track of my goal. I saw so many of my Black counterparts fall into the trap. They had outsized service burdens compared to their peers, which they took on with the encouragement of the administration. However, when promotion and tenure evaluation time arrived, they were dismissed for not "meeting the high standards of the unit."
On labor market impediments for black workers: 
The impediments begin for Blacks seeking employment from the very outset. Some research has shown that non-Black job applicants of equal ability receive 50 percent more callbacks than Blacks. To further amplify on the issue, some research has shown that Black males without criminal records receive the same rate of callbacks for interviews as white males just released from prison when applying for employment in the low-wage job market.

With such handicaps existing from the start, it is no surprise that a wage gap exists. Some estimates show that gap to be as large as 28 percent on average and as large as 34 percent for those earning in the highest end (95th percentile) of the wage distribution. ,,, 

Employers want workers who are trainable and present. Black workers, who have been poorly trained or suffer inferior health outcomes, will suffer disproportionately. In addition, the impacts of the criminal justice system cannot be overlooked. Some recent research has shown that for the birth cohort born between 1980 and 1984, the likelihood of incarceration transition for Blacks was 2.4 times greater than for their white counterparts. Given this outsized risk of incarceration, the prospects of long-term unemployment are dramatically increased.
On whether "the economy will evolve quickly enough to ensure the success and prosperity of minority groups":
I think that I must be optimistic about the future. What employers are yet to realize, but will have to come to grips with, is that successful market outcomes for minority groups mean success for them also. By that I mean, this is not a zero-sum game where one group will only improve at the expense of the other. In fact, history has shown us the opposite. Once minorities are fully utilized and integrated in the labor force, the economy as a whole will enjoy a different type of prosperity than has ever been experienced in the U.S. Once again, we must remember the introductory idea we teach to our college freshmen about the circular flow of the economy in that those fully engaged minority employees become fully engaged consumers.
For more on Hoover's thoughts about racial and ethnic diversity in the economic profession, a useful starting point is his co-authored article in the Summer 2020 issue of JEP, written with Amanda Bayer and Ebonya Washington. "How You Can Work to Increase the Presence and Improve the Experience of Black, Latinx, and Native American People in the Economics Profession" (Journal of Economic Perspectives, 34: 3, pp. 193-219).

For an overview of how economists seek to understand discrimination in theoretical and empirical terms, and how the views of economists differ from sociologists, a useful starting point is the two-paper
symposium on "Perspcctives on Racial Discrimination" in the Spring 2020 issue of JEP: 


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