Friday, June 7, 2019

MIT economist Simon Johnson wants to ramp up federal investment on science and technology—and make sure taxpayers get a cash dividend in return [feedly]

MIT economist Simon Johnson wants to ramp up federal investment on science and technology—and make sure taxpayers get a cash dividend in return
https://www.epi.org/blog/mit-economist-simon-johnson-wants-to-ramp-up-federal-investment-on-science-and-technology-and-make-sure-taxpayers-get-a-cash-dividend-in-return/

There is no shortage of creativity in the American economy—as long as we get away from the myth that denigrates public investments and puts private business on a pedestal.

That's the message from MIT Sloan Economist Simon Johnson's new book, "Jump-Starting America: How Breakthrough Science Can Revive Economic Growth and the American Dream," which he presented during a talk and Q&A here at EPI this week.

Johnson, in a book co-authored with his colleague Jonathan Gruber, traces the history of America's rapid economic ascent after World War II in part to heavy doses of public spending and incentives for scientific discovery and technological innovation.

He says the government's abandonment of this commitment has not only chipped away at America's economic and cultural leadership globally but also cost workers and firms enormously in terms of lost productivity, wages, and profits.

Johnson highlighted a decline in federal spending on research and development from a 1964 peak of 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) to just 0.7 percent today.

"Converted to the same fraction of GDP today, that decline represents roughly $240 billion per year that we no longer spend on creating the next generation of good jobs," Gruber and Johnson write in the book.

The authors offer a number of creative solutions to the problems they identify.

First, they would like to return research and development spending to its 1983 level, around 1.2 percent of GDP, which would amount to $100 billion per year.

Second, Gruber and Johnson propose flipping the Amazon headquarters' totally lopsided and unproductive bidding process on its head, using federal funds and an independent commission to identify dozens of metropolitan areas ripe for large-scale science and tech spending.

Third, in order to ensure the benefits of productivity growth, which have accrued primarily to the very rich in recent decades (see chart below), are broadly shared, they call for the introduction of an "innovation dividend." This would be a regular cash payment offering returns on the initial public investments directly to the taxpayers that ultimately funded them.

"Let's aim to create a cash transfer for Americans based on, we argue, the real estate appreciation that will come from the creation of these new jobs," Johnson said during his EPI book talk.

PRODUCTIVITY-PAY GAP

The gap between productivity and a typical worker's compensation has increased dramatically since 1973Productivity growth and hourly compensation growth, 1948–2017

YearHourly compensationNet productivity
1948 0.00%0.00%
19496.24%0.74%
195010.46%8.77%
195111.74%11.07%
195215.02%14.66%
195320.82%18.17%
195423.48%20.47%
195528.69%25.67%
195633.89%27.23%
195737.08%30.12%
195838.07%32.48%
195942.46%37.48%
196045.37%40.32%
196147.83%44.49%
196252.31%49.66%
196354.85%55.26%
196458.32%59.85%
196562.26%64.60%
196664.69%68.64%
196766.67%71.12%
196870.48%76.33%
196974.39%77.41%
197076.29%79.19%
197181.65%85.19%
197290.84%90.68%
1973 90.95%95.65%
197486.61%92.46%
197586.46%95.98%
197689.34%100.75%
197792.81%103.51%
197895.64%104.96%
197993.23%103.56%
198088.31%102.39%
198187.59%107.64%
198287.92%106.87%
198388.48%109.81%
198487.02%116.72%
198586.38%119.80%
198687.45%122.96%
198784.66%126.36%
198884.00%  131.30%
198983.72%130.03%
199082.35%132.23%
199182.00%133.99%
199283.19%141.99%
199383.45%141.47%
199483.88%144.41%
199582.75%147.50%
199682.86%153.80%
199784.85%159.82%
199889.26%167.48%
199991.97%173.81%
200092.94%181.72% 
200195.59%186.46%
200299.48%193.07%
2003101.56%200.72%
2004100.55%208.97%
200599.71%215.29%
200699.87%221.08%
2007101.44%217.07%
2008101.38%213.46%
2009109.28%219.48%
2010110.98%232.25%
2011108.45%235.24%
2012106.49%241.25%
2013108.38%239.89%
2014109.10%245.04%
2015112.44%246.44%
2016114.38%243.47%
2017114.70% 246.25% 

 

 Productivity: 95.7% Hourlycompensation: 90.9%1973–2017: Productivity: 77.0% Hourly compensation: 12.4%

Notes: Data are for compensation (wages and benefits) of production/nonsupervisory workers in the private sector and net productivity of the total economy. "Net productivity" is the growth of output of goods and services less depreciation per hour worked.

Source: EPI analysis of unpublished Total Economy Productivity data from Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Labor Productivity and Costs program, wage data from the BLS Current Employment Statistics, BLS Employment Cost Trends, BLS Consumer Price Index, and Bureau of Economic Analysis National Income and Product Accounts

Updated from Figure A in Raising America's Pay: Why It's Our Central Economic Policy Challenge (Bivens et al. 2014)


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Tuesday, June 4, 2019

Warren’s Astonishing Plan for Economic Patriotism [feedly]

A VERY important proposal, IMO. I have been calling this kind of approach "Pay the Losers" for some years, since it's the essential approach of most progressive economists to the rapid shifts in the division of labor (jobs, corporate restructuring, technology, trade, etc transformations) in the economy.  But "Economic Patriotism" is a MUCH better expression. Plus, Senator Warren KNOWS this stuff. Bravo. (There ought to be a way to link organized labor institutionally into the program)

Warren's Astonishing Plan for Economic Patriotism
https://prospect.org/article/warrens-astonishing-plan-economic-patriotism

Jeff Chiu/AP Photo

Senator Elizabeth Warren speaks during the 2019 California Democratic Party State Organizing Convention in San Francisco. 

I have been a fan of Elizabeth Warren for a long time. Her combination of deep knowledge of how American capitalism works, her capacity to narrate the lived experience of American working families and tie it to radical reforms, and her sheer integrity are unsurpassed.

Her rollout of one brilliant policy proposal after another and her ability to connect those to a political understanding of the American situation has been just stunning. But Warren's latest plan is in a class by itself, even for Warren. She calls it an Agenda for Economic Patriotism.

Warren's proposal does nothing less than turn inside out the globalist assumptions pursued by the past several administrations, Democrat and Republican alike. Where they have pursued more globalization of commerce as an end in itself (and as a profit center for U.S.-based multinational corporations and banks), Warren's goal is to bring production and good jobs home.

Even better, she knits it all together with a coherent plan, beginning with a new Department of Economic Development "with the sole responsibility to create and defend quality, sustainable American jobs."

The new Department will replace the Commerce Department, subsume other agencies like the Small Business Administration and the Patent and Trademark Office, and include research and development programs, worker training programs, and export and trade authorities like the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. The new Department will have a single goal: creating and defending good American jobs. 

Globalization didn't just happen, Warren points out.

America chose to pursue a trade policy that prioritized the interests of capital over the interests of American workers. Germany, for example, chose a different path and participated in international trade while at the same time robustly—and successfully—supporting its domestic industries and its workers.

Warren proposes that every tool of American national policy be directed towards the goals of reclaiming domestic industry and producing good jobs for American workers.

This, in her phrase, is the essence of economic patriotism and is the opposite of what most American-based banks and corporations do.

These "American" companies show only one real loyalty: to the short-term interests of their shareholders, a third of whom are foreign investors. If they can close up an American factory and ship jobs overseas to save a nickel, that's exactly what they will do—abandoning loyal American workers and hollowing out American cities along the way.

Specifically, she calls for leveraging government-subsidized R & D to promote domestic good jobs. If the research and development that goes into new products is funded by American taxpayers, those products will be built by American workers. Warren also wants management of the value of the dollar to take into account the impact on domestic production. 

In her Green Manufacturing Plan, which Warren is also releasing today, she further proposes the federal government allot $150 billion every year for the next decade to purchase renewable, green, American-made energy products, which in itself would amount to a 30 percent increase in the government's annual procurement.  

In addition, she values these new tools of domestic economic development for regional development potential as well, so that good jobs can be spread to the nation's regions that have been left behind by the bi-coastal shift of capital. And she wants government procurement to be used explicitly for domestic production and job creation. Warren also proposes a dramatic expansion of worker training to rendezvous with the anticipated new jobs. 

If China can commit its national resources to promotion of domestic industry, through plans such as Made-in-China 2025, and even democratic Germany can commit a great deal more economic planning than we do, says Warren, it's time for America to start planning a future of cutting edge industries and good jobs. Every four years, the Department of Economic Development would produce a National Jobs Strategy, and all trade-related policies would fall under the new department.

Consider what Warren has done with this proposal. For starters, she has blown away the assumptions of several decades of U.S. trade policy, in which the invisible hand is supposed to allocate production based on principles of laissez-faire. But as painful experience has demonstrated, free-market economics doesn't work any better globally that it does nationally.

While other progressive critics have offered telling indictments of America's trade policy, Warren is the first to nest that critique in an affirmative strategy for reclaiming good jobs and fostering cutting edge industries. By doing so, she underscores her distance from corporate Democrats and allies herself with working people.

Even better, Warren shows up Donald Trump on the question of trade. While Trump's version of economic nationalism is all swagger, symbol, and shotgun retaliation. Warren's would actually deliver tangible benefits for the voters who turned in desperation to Trump. By contrast, Trump's version delivers nothing.

Warren has also reclaimed the virtue of patriotism for the progressive left, and connected it to something urgent and with real meaning, as opposed to the right's use of patriotism for symbols, military adventures, and worse. The Prospect recently addressed this need in E.J. Dionne's essay on the important work of John Judis.

As this remarkable plan is debated, the usual suspects in the political center not to mention the orthodox economists are going to go nuts. Just wait for the editorials and columns. Warren will be damned as a protectionist and worse. We will see claims of a false symmetry between left economic patriots and rightwing ultra-nationalists. But the supposed gains of "free trade" are among the most overrated free-market myths.

America's finest industrial hours came during World War II, when national planning was a necessity and trade was shut down. The postwar boom was an era when trade came to just about five percent of GDP, and prosperity was broadly spread. Trade is fine as the tail on the economic dog, but it becomes perverse when trade is the tail that wags the dog (even more so when the master is corporate).

With this plan, Warren has begun an overdue debate that she deserves to win, both intellectually and politically.  And she has demonstrated once again her potential as a powerful force against Donald Trump.

And against others in the Democratic field. Joe Biden may be the candidate working class voters would rather have a beer with, but what will he have to say about this proposal? Let his constituents eat free trade? Having supported NAFTA, extending permanent "normal" trade relations to China, and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Biden's pro-worker bona fides leave a good deal to be desired.

For several months, I've been arguing with the naysayers who tell the usual story of Warren being too much the "shrill schoolmarm" who will never reach working class voters, or being politically vulnerable as "Pocahontas." I've watched Warren's stunning success talking candidly about race, and observed skeptics crediting her political, rhetorical, and policy acumen, as she keeps slowly moving up in the polls, benefiting from those lowered expectations.

This latest proposal demonstrates once again what makes Warren a once-in-a-lifetime progressive leader.


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New Zealand has Unveiled its First ‘Well-Being’ Budget [feedly]

Here is an example from New Zealand of measuring well being and "happiness" with additional metrics beyond the number of commodities produced, sold and consumed and their capital or salary effects. These kind of non-economic oriented measures -- and the kind of rewards beyond money that constitute "happiness" -- are important to experiment with as we struggle to free ourselves from the clay of scarcity in the means of life.

New Zealand has Unveiled its First 'Well-Being' Budget
https://www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/04/06/2019/new-zealand-has-unveiled-its-first-well-being-budget

The government's plan to move away from traditional methods of measuring growth and development are in keeping with a global push for a more purposeful capitalism.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's novel approach to New Zealand's finances is facing its first real test.

After talking about "doing things differently" with a "well-being budget" at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in January, Ardern's government has this week unveiled its plans to make that strategy a reality.

Finance Minister Grant Robertson outlined the plan to the country's parliament - with billions released for mental health services, child poverty and measures to tackle family violence.

"Success is about making New Zealand both a great place to make a living, and a great place to make a life," he said.

The well-being approach

Based on the idea that gauging the long-term impact of policies on the quality of people's lives is better than focusing on short-term output measures, the initiative has five priorities for 2019: aiding the transition to a sustainable and low-emissions economy, supporting a thriving nation in the digital age, lifting Māori and Pacific incomes, skills and opportunities, reducing child poverty, and supporting mental health for all New Zealanders.

"We're embedding that notion of making decisions that aren't just about growth for growth's sake, but how are our people faring?" Ardern said. "How is their overall well-being and their mental health? How is our environment doing? These are the measures that will give us a true measure of our success."

Worldwide push While the government's plans to move away from traditional methods of measuring growth and development are in keeping with a global push for a more purposeful capitalism, new metrics may be difficult to quantify and could take years to refine. Ideas about measuring and promoting well-being aren't new. Frameworks are already in existence, while some nations, including Bhutan and the United Arab Emirates, have already incorporated them into government policy. Politicians, economists and lobby groups in other countries, like the UK, are calling for governments to do more.

Well Being

New Zealand plans to look at the long-term impact of policies to assess people's quality of life. Image: New Zealand's Treasury

The UAE has a Minister of State for Happiness and a National Programme for Happiness and Positivity. Its agenda is based on three pillars: inclusion of happiness in the policies, programmes and services of all government bodies and at work, promotion of positivity and happiness as a lifestyle, and development of benchmarks and tools to measure happiness.

Bhutan measures Gross National Happiness over nine domains: psychological well-being, health, education, time use, cultural diversity, good governance, community vitality, ecological diversity and living standards. It is used to support policy-making and track the effectiveness of policies over time.

GNH

 

Gross National Happiness: how Bhutan measures well-being. Image: Bhutan Gross National Happiness

Such initiatives may also be of benefit to politicians, with life satisfaction being a key factor in whether people re-elect their governments, according to Lord Richard Layard, a programme director at the London School of Economics and the Vice Chair of the UK All Party Parliamentary Group on Wellbeing Economics. He told the BBC in an interview that happiness should be a greater focus for government policy.

His group drafted a well-being report for the UK government, setting out proposals including a bigger budget for mental health, a strategy to improve the well-being of children in schools, and more spending on further education for people who don't go to university.

CEP

Improving well-being should "serve as a central goal for our society and the overriding aim of government policy," the report says. It advises that a spending review focused on well-being would enable the UK government to focus spending on areas that have the most impact on people's lives.

Meaningful results

Safeguarding the future and promoting well-being as the Fourth Industrial Revolution brings changes is a key part of the World Economic Forum's work. The Forum has explored whether gross domestic product is still a relevant measure, and what the alternatives could offer as climate change worsens and technology advances.

Ardern said she hopes a focus on longer-term, more altruistic goals will help fight some of the deep-rooted and divisive political forces at play around the world. Unprecedented wage stagnation is a concern for OECD countries, hollowing out living standards for many and aiding the rise of populism.

And the world's youngest female head of state has already set out some policies, including more than $200 million of funding for services that help victims of domestic and sexual violence.

"This is not woolly, it's critical," Ardern told delegates at the Forum's Annual Meeting 2019 in Davos. "This is how we bring meaning and results for the people who vote for us. It's not ideological either. It's about finally saying this how we meet expectations, and try and build trust back in to our institutions again, no matter where we are in the world."


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Monday, June 3, 2019

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Amazon.Bomb (May 31, 1999) [feedly]

Amazon: a cautionary tale from a wise econ pundit (Barry Ritholtz) on how not to believe anything economic pundits predict about the future

Amazon.Bomb (May 31, 1999)
https://ritholtz.com/2019/06/amazon-bomb-may-31-1999/

Amazon.Bomb (May 31, 1999)

Looking Back at a Bearish Call on Amazon
Twenty years ago, how could Barron's or anyone else know what would become of an internet bookseller? 
Bloomberg, May 31, 2019

 

 

So often, it is difficult to distinguish the things we think we know from those we have no idea about. An especially vivid illustration of this is a column published 20 years ago this weekend in Barron's about Amazon.com. "Amazon.bomb" reveals not only the state of the dot-com bubble and how far markets were off their leash in on May 31, 1999, but the eternal truth that it is impossible to see into the future.

At the time, Barron's, alarmed at how far company valuations had risen, was warning about market risks, especially in the technology sector. In this, the editors were early, but they would be proved correct.

The Amazon column, in many ways an excellent article, focused on one of the sector's highest flyers:

"But since early May, a lot of investors have been learning that a good story does not always make a good stock. From an April high of 221 1/4, Amazon shares have been sliced nearly in half, to 118 3/4, cutting the company's worth to about $19 billion and reducing Bezos' fortune to $7 billion. The stock could fall a lot further. Remember, adjusted for stock splits, these shares were worth just $3 apiece when they were first issued to the public two years ago. Several analyses, including two in this magazine, have indicated that the shares could be worth less than $10 apiece."

Let's unpack all the delicious history in this paragraph. For one thing, it contains a prescient warning of an impending collapse in the stock price (and the entire tech sector). If you took the discussion in the column to heart and sold Amazon, you did very well:  Over the next few years, Amazon's stock would drop 95 percent, eventually falling to below $6 in 2001 from over $100:

 

Missing a 95% Collapse over the next 2 years

 

At the same time, it reminds us how differently things can look in the short term — when bearish can be the right trading call — than they do over the course of many years — when the preferred posture is bullish.

Consider Amazon's annual revenue: In 1998, the company posted a loss of $125 million on revenues of $610 million. From today's perspective, those numbers seem almost shockingly low. Amazon's daily revenues are now greater than the company's annual revenues were in 1998. Last year, the company sold $241.5 billion worth of goods and services — $ 661.6 million per day about $50 million more per day than the company sold in all of 1998. Even adjusted for inflation, 1998 revenues are less than $1 billion for the entire year.

Look, too, at the market capitalization of Amazon prior to that 95 percent collapse. Anyone would love to travel back in time to buy Amazon at a mere $19 billion valuation and watch that multiply 47 times to $894.2 billion. My back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest Amazon has risen 4,606% since Barron's published its column, with an annualized average return of 21.1% — about quadruple what the S&P 500 returned over the same period.

Not too shabby.

But there is yet another historical lesson here. Anytime some company is said to be "the next Amazon" (or Apple or Microsoft), keep in mind that most people would be unable to withstand the sort of pain and wealth destruction that goes along with investing early, even if the ups and downs are temporary. Only if investors can withstand the subsequent drawdowns — in Amazon's case, 83% in 2000; 73% in 2001; 41% in 2004; 46% in 2006; 64% in 2008 — will they be amply rewarded.

 

The Subsequent 4,606% move

 

And while the reversals are happening, investors have no idea whether they will be temporary. In real time, it feels like nothing short of an unmitigated disaster. Oh, and if the stock is Enron or Lehman Brothers or any one of the thousands of companies that have gone bankrupt, then fear is justified. There's simply no way to know at the time whether or not $AMZN is going to turn out to be "Amazon", or whether the meek finance geek Jeff Bezos is going to become Bezos Prime.

Well considered as it was, the Barron's column got lots of fundamental things wrong: Authors would not end up selling their own books from their own websites. High-profile publishing houses would not take the market away from Amazon. My favorite quote in the column comes from retail consultant Kurt Barnard, who said: "Once Wal-Mart decides to go after Amazon, there's no contest. Wal-Mart has resources Amazon can't even dream about." Well, he was half right: It was no contest.

But in 1999, no one could predict that Amazon would expand far beyond books; create Kindle, Echo and other devices; build out a multi-billion-dollar cloud business; create original television and movie programming; develop Amazon Prime, which would penetrate 60% of U.S. households (with greater concentration among the wealthy); become the third most valuable company in the world, briefly touching a trillion-dollar market cap; and capture nearly half of all dollars spent online.

As William Goldman said about Hollywood: "Nobody knows anything." Something to keep in mind when considering the future of any company.


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