Saturday, February 29, 2020

Brad DeLong: As of the end of February the stock market is forecasting a very sharp, sudden recession in the probability of a recess... [feedly]

from Brad DeLong's blog (former depy Sec of Treasury)

As of the end of February the stock market is forecasting a very sharp, sudden recession in the probability of a recess...
https://www.bradford-delong.com/2020/02/as-of-the-end-of-february-the-stock-market-is-forecasting-a-very-sharp-sudden-recession-in-the-probability-of-a-recession-fr.html

As of the end of February the stock market is forecasting a very sharp, sudden recession in the probability of a recession from near zero a week ago to better-than-even today: that is the only way to make sense of the S&P 500 over the past week. Thus it is not too late to plan. It is, rather, time to act to offset the likely spending contraction we now see much closer than the horizon. Here are the plans we should have made: Alyssa FisherPlanning for the Next Recession by Reforming U.S. Automatic Stabilizers https://equitablegrowth.org/planning-for-the-next-recession-by-reforming-u-s-macroeconomic-policy-automatic-stabilizers/: 'Equitable Growth has joined forces with The Hamilton Project to advance a set of specific, evidence-based policy ideas for shortening and easing the impacts of the next recession... _Recession Ready: Fiscal Policies to Stabilize the American Economy.... Six concrete ideas... expand eligibility for Unemployment Insurance and encourage take-up of its regular benefits... reduce state budget shortfalls during recessions by... increasing the federal matching rate for Medicaid and the Children's Health Insurance Program... eliminate work requirements for supplemental nutrition assistance during recessions... expand federal support for basic assistance during recessions... an automatic infrastructure investment program... boost consumer spending during recessions by creating a system of direct stimulus payments to individuals that would be automatically triggered when rising unemployment signaled a coming recession.... Congress should consider them now, because when the next recession appears on the horizon, it may be too late...  

 -- via my feedly newsfeed

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