It's too early to tell for sure, but, consulting my 'gut' -- remembering we KNOW how WRONG the 'gut' can be --- tells me that the truce, and the signing of agreements to replace NAFTA, are retreats from Trump's bullying posture, since I do not see much change on the Chinese, Mexican, or Canadian stances all of Thumpers Thumping and Tweeting. More to come.....
Trump, Xi Agree to Temporary Truce in Bid to Contain Trade War
Read more on the Trump-Xi dinner:
What Our Economists Say..
|Ahead of the G-20, the U.S. planned to increase tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods from 10% to 25%, effective Jan. 1. That increase has now been deferred. Based on our calculations, tariffs at 25% would have meant a 0.9 percentage point drag on China's GDP growth. Keeping tariffs at 10% will mean the drag stays at 0.5 ppt.|
-- Tom Orlik, Bloomberg Economics. For the full note click here.
-- via my feedly newsfeed