Friday, February 19, 2021

Competitive Edge: Big Ag’s monopsony problem: How market dominance harms U.S. workers and consumers [feedly]

Competitive Edge: Big Ag's monopsony problem: How market dominance harms U.S. workers and consumers
https://equitablegrowth.org/competitive-edge-big-ags-monopsony-problem-how-market-dominance-harms-u-s-workers-and-consumers/

Antitrust and competition issues are receiving renewed interest, and for good reason. So far, the discussion has occurred at a high level of generality. To address important specific antitrust enforcement and competition issues, the Washington Center for Equitable Growth has launched this blog, which we call "Competitive Edge." This series features leading experts in antitrust enforcement on a broad range of topics: potential areas for antitrust enforcement, concerns about existing doctrine, practical realities enforcers face, proposals for reform, and broader policies to promote competition. Hiba Hafiz and Nathan Miller authored this contribution.

The octopus image, above, updates an iconic editorial cartoon first published in 1904 in the magazine Puck to portray the Standard Oil monopoly. Please note the harpoon. Our goal for Competitive Edge is to promote the development of sharp and effective tools to increase competition in the United States economy.


Agricultural markets are among the most highly concentrated in the United States. The markets for beefpork, and poultrygrainseeds, and pesticides are dominated by four firms. Three firms dominate the biotechnology industry. One or at best two firms control large farm equipment manufacturing. And a small number of firms are increasingly dominating agricultural data and information markets.

Yet former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (D)—President Joe Biden's nominee for secretary of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the same position Gov. Vilsack held during the Obama administration—has come out against breaking up Big Ag firms. "There are a substantial number of people hired and employed by those businesses," he said last year. "You're essentially saying to those folks, 'You might be out of a job.' That to me is not a winning message."

Gov. Vilsack couldn't be more wrong on the economics. It is precisely Big Ag's buyer power in agricultural markets—these firms' "monopsony" power—that destroys jobs and suppresses small farmer and worker pay.

Economic theory describes monopsony power as market power on the buy side of the market—it's the analogue of monopoly power on the sell side of the market. Artificially acquiring or maintaining market power is unlawful under the U.S. antitrust laws, regardless of whether it derives from the buy or sell side. And that's because buy-side power can be just as socially harmful as sell-side power.

Firms insulated from competition in input markets can profitably suppress the pay to suppliers of goods, services, and labor below the value that those suppliers provide. And lower pay has broader economic outcomes. It means suppliers have weaker incentives to provide the same quantity of inputs or invest in capacity, innovation, and quality. So, monopsony power can decrease input suppliers' pay and the quantity of inputs buyers purchase.

Monopsony power can also harm downstream consumers. Less input means less output, and less output means more scarcity and higher prices to downstream consumers than would otherwise exist under competitive conditions.1

Taking steps to mitigate buyer power through aggressive antitrust enforcement and appropriate regulation can be a win-win for input suppliers and downstream consumers. Competition among buyers helps ensure that suppliers are paid according to their value. And competition increases output incentives and ultimately lowers downstream prices as well.

The monopsony power of Big Ag poultry, pork, and meat companies

The buyer power of companies such as Tyson Foods Corporation, Cargill PLC, and Smithfield Foods Inc. comes from high levels of market concentration in the agricultural industry. Simply put: Big Ag faces too little competition when they hire workers or procure inputs such as chicken (Tyson), hogs (Smithfield), or cattle (Cargill) from smaller suppliers.

Top Big Ag firms have merged with and acquired smaller firms in the industry over the past five decades, increasing consolidation of livestock packers, beef processors, and poultry processors. According to a recent agricultural industry report by the Center for American Progress, between 1986 and 2008, "the four-firm share of animal slaughter nationwide increased from 55 percent to 79 percent for cattle, from 33 percent to 65 percent for hogs, and from 34 percent to 57 percent for poultry." High market concentration increased Big Ag's price- and wage-setting power over cattle producers, hog and poultry farmers, and meat processing plant workers, lowering their prices for hogsbeefchickensand labor.

Big Ag's concentration numbers at the local level are even more stark than at the national level. Most buying and processing of poultry, hogs, and beef happens locally to avoid high transportation and storage costs. Big Ag dominates local markets as the only buyers in town. More than 20 percent of poultry growers have only one local upstream buyer for poultry and 30 percent have only two.

Most hog growers face packer monopsony at the local level, with just one or two packers offering them contracts. One telling case in point: After dominant meat processor JBS S.A. acquired Cargill's pork processing operations in 2015, the American Antitrust Institute and a coalition of farmers' unions projected that only two firms—Tyson and the merged JBS-Cargill pork processing unit—would buy and slaughter 82 percent of hogs in Illinois, Indiana, and surrounding states. Similarly, local cash markets for cattle typically feature no more than three or four packers.

Concentration at the local level means that Big Ag can artificially suppress pay to cattle producers, hog and poultry farmers, and processing plant workers below the value that their inputs provide to the industry.

Evidence of the effects of Big Ag poultry, pork, and beef companies' monopsony power

Empirical evidence of the effects of Big Ag's buyer power on rural communities and consumers nationally is mounting. Suppliers and processing workers suffer lower pay while downstream consumers are paying higher prices on essential food. Around "three-quarters of contract growers live below the poverty line," and average-sized operators lose money 2 out of 3 years.

Then, there is the evidence of rising farm bankruptcy rates. Farm bankruptcies have steadily increased every year for the past decade, due, in part, to high U.S. farm debt. Small farmers are not the only ones being undercompensated—a 2000 U.S. Department of Labor survey found that 100 percent of poultry processing plants failed to comply with federal wage-and-hour laws.

Buyer power also enables processors to impose abominable working conditions without workers quitting. Even before the coronavirus pandemic, poultry processing workers suffered occupational illnesses at five times the rate of other U.S. workers. But their conditions plummeted during the pandemic, with immigrant workers and workers of color suffering the most. A November 2020 study estimated livestock processing plants suffered 236,000 to 310,000 cases of COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, and 4,300 to 5,200 deaths—3 percent to 4 percent of all U.S. deaths—with the majority related to community spread. Consumers have also suffer nationally by having to pay higher prices for meat products while facing fewer choices and lower quality.

More evidence of Big Ag's buyer power emerges from high-profile U.S. Department of Justice and private enforcement actions against dominant Big Ag buyers in the poultry and pork industries for colluding to fix prices, rig bids, and suppress pay to growers and processing workers. High concentration levels make it easier for Big Ag firms to collude, and in June 2020, the Department of Justice indicted leading chicken industry defendants for price-fixing and bid-rigging in the broiler chicken market. Civil suits were filed against Tyson, Pilgrim's Pride Corp., and others for price-fixing, wage-fixing, and using no-poach agreements in the markets for broiler chicken productscontract farmer services (contract farmers are farmers who grow chickens from chicks to market weight in long-term contracts with processors), and chicken-processing labor services.

The Department of Justice is currently investigating price-fixing and bid-rigging among dominant beef processors, too, and private plaintiffs have sued pork and beef processors for allegedly colluding to lower prices paid to producers and raise prices for consumers. Current litigation against the poultry, pork, and meat cartels estimates that hundreds of thousands of workers suffer poverty wages from wage-fixing conspiracies.

Big Ag is able to exercise its buyer power through its industry-transforming supply chain restructuring that allows lead firms to extract rents at each layer of their supply chain for their profit, and most especially, from small farmers and workers at the production level.2 Starting in the 1960s, poultry firms such as Tyson vertically integrated to own or control hatcheries, feed mills, veterinary care, slaughterhouses, processors, and sales contracts with poultry growers. The pork industry followed Tyson's lead in the early 1980s, extending top-down ownership or control of hog production, packing, and processing in large-scale farms and processing facilities.

The only level of the supply chain not directly owned or operated by Big Ag chicken and pork producers is the growing stage, where Big Ag processors rely on small farmers to grow and raise the broilers and hogs provided by Big Ag-provided breeders, hatcheries, farrows, and weaners to slaughter weight. Still, Big Ag firms in these two meat sectors can squeeze these growers' margins from above andbelow: Their inputs are supplied by Big Ag, and their product is sold to Big Ag.

Big Ag does this through contractual controls, forcing growers into one-sided production and marketing contracts while using their significant control over spot or cash markets to limit sales outside those contracts. Around 97 percent of chicken broilers are raised by contract growers in "take it or leave it" contractual arrangements; 63 percent of hogs were contractually raised in 2017, nearly double that in 1997.

These arrangements are crippling. Chicken growers' production contracts require significant sunk investments—around $1 million in mostly debt-financing—and growers are required to purchase nearly all inputs, veterinary care, and technical assistance from vertically integrated buyers. Buyers can change or terminate contracts for almost any reason. Farmers sell their chickens in a "tournament system," where their chickens compete for rankings with others given the same feed amount, but the ranking process lacks transparency—buyers weigh chickens behind closed doors and provide no standards for knowing whether a farmer is "getting the same inputs as the other farmers against whom the company makes him compete," according to Lina Khan, then-policy analyst at the New America Foundation and now an assistant professor of law at Columbia Law School.

Big Ag buyers can retaliate against resistant farmers by refusing to renew contracts or sending bad feed or unhealthy chicks in future seasons—a system likened to "indentured servitude" by former chicken farmers suing Big Ag poultry firms. Contracts for hog growers also require significant capital investments, place much of the liability and risk for raising hogs on growers, and subject growers to unilateral buyer compensation-setting with limited transparency, and similarly allow retaliation through threats of contract termination or future substandard livestock or feed supply.

The beef industry is less vertically integrated than chicken and poultry. Beef packers find vertical supply chain ownership less profitable, yet these packers have achieved a degree of de facto control over the thousands of independent feedlots that supply them. Since the 1980s, and following meatpacker consolidation into the Big Four—Cargill, JBS, National Beef Inc., and Tyson Foods—the number of packing plants nationwide dropped 81 percent, and nearly a third of all the feedlots that purchase cattle from ranchers for fattening and resale to meatpackers have left the industry.

Among the feedlots that remain, most sign long-term contracts with the Big Four. More than 75 percent of packer cattle purchases come from long-term contracts with feedlots, up from 34 percent in 2004. Because most contract prices are pegged to outcomes in a subsequent cash market, this weakens packers' incentives to bid aggressively in that cash market—bidding aggressively would just increase their payments for cattle already under contract.

So, in addition to alleged collusion among the Big Four beef packers to lower feeder pay—estimated at an average of 7.9 percent below average pay since 2015—feeders are also squeezed by the Big Four's network of contracts and bidding schemes that the packers can profitably impose upstream.

Conclusion: Anti-monopsony action is urgently needed to protect workers and consumers

The economic theory is clear, and mounting empirical evidence backs it up: Big Ag's monopsony power leads to fewer jobs, lower wages, and worse conditions dominating our nation's food supply. And local farming communities are hurting. If U.S. Agriculture Secretary-nominee Vilsack wants to help rural communities—and reduce food prices for consumers in the bargain—he must get the economics right.

President Biden committed to strengthening antitrust enforcement to "help family farms and other small- and medium-sized farms thrive." Before confirming Gov. Vilsack, Democratic senators must secure his public commitment to aggressively enforcing the Packers and Stockyards Act of 1921 and partnering with the U.S. Department of Justice to take on Big Ag's buyer power. If keeping good jobs and sustainable business in rural America is the incoming administration's priority, they can't leave small farmers and workers to face Big Ag alone.

—Hiba Hafiz is an assistant professor of law at Boston College Law School. Nathan Miller is the Saleh Romeih associate professor at the Georgetown University McDonough School of Business.

FEBRUARY 18, 2021

AUTHORS:

Hiba HafizNathan Miller

TOPICS

CONCENTRATION

MONOPSONY

END NOTES

1 It is possible for a firm to have monopsony power upstream but face competition in downstream markets in conditions that resemble perfect competition (no product differentiation and populated by many small firms with low market share). See, for example,C. Scott Hemphill and Nancy Rose, "Mergers that Harm Sellers" Yale Law Journal 127 (7) (2019). But those conditions are rare in reality, as economists recognize. See, for example, Roger G. Noll, "'Buyer Power' and Economic Policy," Antitrust Law Journal 72 (2) (2005), arguing that, "because output of the monopsonized good is less than the social optimum and other inputs are not perfect substitutes for this input, final goods will be under-supplied as well, causing real final goods prices to be higher than would be the case in the absence of monopsony …. Although some have claimed otherwise, these fundamental results about the effects of single-price monopsony do not depend on either the extent of competition or the cost structure of other firms in the downstream market." See also Peter C. Carstensen, "Buyer Cartels v. Buyer Groups," William & Mary Business Law Review 1 (1) (2010); Roger D. Blair and Jeffrey L. Harrison, "Antitrust Policy and Monopsony," Cornell Law Review 76 (2) (1991); John B. Kirkwood, "Powerful Buyers and Merger Enforcement," Boston University Law Review 92 (4) (2012).

2 Vertical integration can create real efficiencies by streamlining production and distribution that can make supply purchasing more predictable for all parties, including small farmers. But it also raises barriers to entry. Vertical integration makes it difficult, for example, for a firm engaged in chicken processing to earn a profit without also building a vertically integrated complex of breeder flocks, hatcheries, and feed mills. Forcing firms to enter two or more additional levels of the supply chain in order to be profitable deters entry and entrenches Big Ag monopsony.


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Robert Shiller on Narrative Economics [feedly]

Robert Shiller on Narrative Economics
https://conversableeconomist.blogspot.com/2021/02/robert-shiller-on-narrative-economics.html

Robert J. Shiller (Nobel '13) delivered the Godley-Tobin Lectures, an annual lecture delivered at the Eastern Economic Association meetings, on the subject of "Animal spirits and viral popular narratives" (Review of Keynesian Economics, January 2021, 9:1, pp. 1-10).

Shiller has been thinking about the intertwining of economics and narrative at least since his presidential address to the American Economic Association back in 2017. He suggests, for example, that the key feature distinguishing humans may be our propensity to organize our thinking into stories, rather than just intelligence per se. Indeed, there are many examples in all walks of life (politics, investing, expectations of family life, careers, reactions to a pandemic) where people will often cleave to their preferred narrative rather than continually question and challenge it with their intelligence. He begins the current essay in this way: 

John Maynard Keynes's (1936) concept of 'animal spirits' or 'spontaneous optimism' as a major driving force in business fluctuations was motivated in part by his and his contemporaries' observations of human reactions to ambiguous situations where probabilities couldn't be quantified. We can add that in such ambiguous situations there is evidence that people let contagious popular narratives and the emotions they generate influence their economic decisions. These popular narratives are typically remote from factual bases, just contagious. Macroeconomic dynamic models must have a theory that is related to models of the transmission of disease in epidemiology. We need to take the contagion of narratives seriously in economic modeling if we are to improve our understanding of animal spirits and their impact on the economy.
Thus, this lecture emphasizes the parallels between how narratives spread and epidemiology models of how diseases spread:
Mathematical epidemiology has been studying disease phenomena for over a century, and its frameworks can provide an inspiration for improvement in our understanding of economic dynamics. People's states of mind change through time, because ideas can be contagious, so that they spread from person to person just as diseases do. ...

We humans live our lives in a sea of epidemics all at different stages, including epidemics of diseases and epidemics of narratives, some of them growing at the moment, some peaking at the moment, others declining. New mutations of both the diseases and the narratives are constantly appearing and altering behavior. It is no wonder that changes in business conditions are so often surprising, for there is no one who is carefully monitoring the epidemic curves of all these drivers of the economy.

Since the advent of the internet age, the contagion rate of many narratives has increased, with the dominance of social media and with online news and chats. But the basic nature of epidemics has not changed. Even pure person-to-person word-of-mouth spread of epidemics was fast enough to spread important ideas, just as person-to person contagion was fast enough to spread diseases into wide swaths of population millennia ago.
As one illustration of the rise and fall of economic-related narratives, Shiller uses "n-grams" which search for how often certain terms are used in news media. Examples of such terms shown in this graph include "supply-side economics," "welfare dependency," "welfare fraud," and "hard-working American."


Shiller's theme is that if we want to understand macroeconomic fluctuations, it won't be enough just to look at patterns of interest rates, trade, or innovation, and it won't be enough to include factors like real-life pandemics, either. The underlying real factors matter, of course. But the real factors are often translated into narratives, and it is those narratives which then affect economic actions about buying, saving, working, starting a business, and so on. Shiller writes: "As this research continues, there should come a time when there is enough definite knowledge of the waxing and waning of popular narratives that we will begin to see the effects on the aggregate economy more clearly."

I'll only add the comment that there can be a tendency to ascribe narratives only to one's opponents: that is, those with whom I disagree are driven by "narratives," while those with whom I agree are of course pure at heart and driven only by facts and the best analysis. That inclination would be a misuse of Shiller's approach. In many aspects of life, enunciating the narratives that drive our own behavior (economic and otherwise) can be hard and discomfiting work. 

For some additional background on these topics: 

For a readable introduction to epidemiology models aimed at economists, a useful starting point is the two-paper "Symposium on Economics and Epidemiology" in the Fall 2020 issue of the Journal of Economic Perspectives: "An Economist's Guide to Epidemiology Models of Infectious Disease," by Christopher Avery, William Bossert, Adam Clark, Glenn Ellison and Sara Fisher Ellison; and "Epidemiology's Time of Need: COVID-19 Calls for Epidemic-Related Economics," by Eleanor J. Murray.

For those who would like to know more about "animal spirits" in economics, a 1991 article in the Journal of Economic Perspectives by Roger Koppl discusses the use of the term by John Maynard Keynes and then gives a taste of the intellectual history: for example, Keynes apparently got the term from Descartes, and it traces back to the second century Greek physician Galen.

 -- via my feedly newsfeed

Thursday, February 18, 2021

NY Times: Should the Feds Guarantee you a job

  What should the president do about jobs?



For 30 years, Democratic administrations have approached the question by focusing on the overall economy and trusting that a vibrant labor market would follow. But there is a growing feeling among Democrats — along with many mainstream economists — that the market alone cannot give workers a square deal.

So after a health crisis that has destroyed millions of jobs, a summer of urban protest that drew attention to the deprivation of Black communities, and another presidential election that exposed deep economic and social divides, some policymakers are reconsidering a policy tool not deployed since the Great Depression: to have the federal government provide jobs directly to anyone who wants one.

On the surface, the politics seem as stuck as ever. Senator Cory Booker, the New Jersey Democrat, introduced bills in 2018 and 2019 to set up pilot programs in 15 cities and regions that would offer training and a guaranteed job to all who sought one, at federal expense. Both efforts failed.

And after progressive Democrats in Congress proposed a federal jobs program as part of their Green New Deal in 2019, Representative Liz Cheney of Wyoming, the No. 3 House Republican, asked, "Are you willing to give the government and some faceless bureaucrats who sit in Washington, D.C., the authority to make those choices for your life?"

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But when it comes to government intervention in the economy, the political parameters have shifted. A system that balked at passing a $1 trillion stimulus after the financial crisis of 2008 had no problem passing a $2.2 trillion rescue last March, and $900 billion more in December. President Biden is pushing to supplement that with a $1.9 trillion package.

"The bounds of policy discourse widened quite a bit as a consequence of the pandemic," said Michael R. Strain, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank.

On the left, there is a sense of opportunity to experiment with the unorthodox. "A job guarantee per se may not be necessary or politically feasible," said Lawrence Katz, a Harvard professor who was the Labor Department's chief economist in the Clinton administration. "But I would love to see more experimentation."

And Americans seem willing to consider the idea. In November, the Carnegie Corporation commissioned a Gallup survey on attitudes about government intervention to provide work opportunities to people who lost their jobs during the Covid-19 pandemic. It found that 93 percent of respondents thought this was a good idea, including 87 percent of Republicans.

Even when the pollsters put a hypothetical price tag on the effort— $200 billion or more — almost nine out of 10 respondents said the benefits outweighed the cost. And hefty majorities — of Democrats and Republicans — also preferred government jobs to more generous unemployment benefits.

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The question is, would the Biden administration embrace a policy not deployed since the New Deal?

"We tried to set the bar at a federal job guarantee," said Darrick Hamilton, an economics professor at the New School for Social Research. He was among advisers to Senator Bernie Sanders who worked with Mr. Biden's representatives before the November election to devise an economic strategy the Democratic Party could unite behind. "It was the cornerstone of what we brought in."

On paper, at least, a job guarantee would drastically moderate recessions, as the government mopped up workers displaced by an economic downturn. But unlike President Franklin D. Roosevelt's programs to provide jobs to millions displaced by the Great Depression, the idea now is not just to address joblessness, but to improve jobs even in good times.

If the federal government offered jobs at $15 an hour plus health insurance, it would force private employers who wanted to hang on to their work force to pay at least as much. A federal job guarantee "sets minimum standards for work," Dr. Hamilton said.

The president does not seem ready to go all the way. "We suspected we weren't going to get there," Dr. Hamilton said.

Mr. Biden's recovery plan includes efforts to train a cohort of new public health workers, and to fund the hiring of 100,000 full-time workers by public health departments. His commitment to expand access to child care and elder care comes paired with a promise to create good, well-paid jobs in caregiving occupations. And he has pledged — in ways not yet translated into programs — to foster the creation of 10 million quality jobs in clean energy.

"There are a number of proposals to pair programs for people to be at work with the needs of the nation," said Heather Boushey, a member of Mr. Biden's Council of Economic Advisers.

And yet the idea of a broad job guarantee is still an innovation too far. For starters, it would be expensive.

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Dr. Hamilton and William A. Darity Jr. of Duke University, who favor a federal job guarantee, published a 2018 study in which they sought to estimate the cost. Based on 2016 employment figures, and assuming an average cost per job of $55,820, including benefits, they found it would cost $654 billion to $2.1 trillion a year, which would be offset to some extent by higher economic output and tax revenue, and savings on other assistance programs like food stamps and unemployment insurance.

And the prospect of a large-scale government intervention in the labor market raises thorny questions.

First, there's determining the work the government could offer to fulfill a job guarantee. Health care and infrastructure projects require workers with particular skills, as do high-quality elder care and child care. Jobs, say, in park maintenance or as teaching aides could encroach on what local governments already do.

What's more, the availability of federal jobs would drastically change the labor equation for low-wage employers like McDonald's or Walmart. Dr. Strain argues that a universal federal guarantee of a job that paid $15 an hour plus health benefits would "destroy the labor market."

Some wealthy countries have job guarantees for young adults. Since 2013, the European Union has had a program to ensure that everyone under 25 gets training or a job. But those programs are built on subsidizing private employment, not offering government jobs.

Many European countries have also subsidized private payrolls during the pandemic, allowing employers to cut hours instead of laying off workers.

The United States has a limited wage-subsidy program, the Work Opportunity Tax Credit, passed in 1996. It extends a credit of up to $9,600 for employers who hire workers from certain categories, like food-stamp recipients, veterans or felons.

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Developing countries have tried job guarantees, which the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said in 2018 "go beyond the provision of income and, by providing a job, help individuals to (re)connect with the labor market, build self-esteem, as well as develop skills and competencies." But in more advanced economies, the report added, "past experience with public-sector programs has shown that they have negligible effects on the post-program outcomes of participants."

A 2017 overview of research on the effectiveness of labor market policies — by David Card of the University of California, Berkeley; Jochen Kluve of Humboldt University in Berlin; and Andrea Weber at Vienna University — concluded that programs that improve workers' skills do best, while "public-sector employment subsidies tend to have small or even negative average impacts" for workers. For one, private employers seem not to value the experience workers gain on the government's payroll.

Another economist, David Neumark of the University of California, Irvine, is skeptical that new policies are needed to ensure a decent living for workers. Programs like the earned-income tax credit, which supplements the earnings of low-wage workers, just need to be made more generous, he said.

"I'm not sure we are missing the tools," he said. "Rather, we have been too stingy with the tools we have."

Dr. Neumark notes that the idea of government intervention to help working Americans is gaining traction even on the political right. "Republicans are at least talking more about the fact that they need to deliver some goods for low-income people," he said. "Maybe there is space to agree on some stuff."

While opposed to a broad guarantee, Dr. Strain of the American Enterprise Institute sees room for new efforts. "If the question is 'Do we need more aggressive labor market policies to increase opportunities for people?' the answer is yes," he said. "I think of it more as a moral imperative than from an economic perspective."

--

China Decoupling Would Cost U.S. Economy Billions, Chamber Says [feedly]

China Decoupling Would Cost U.S. Economy Billions, Chamber Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-17/china-decoupling-would-cost-u-s-economy-billions-chamber-says

Supply Lines is a daily newsletter that tracks Covid-19's impact on trade. Sign up here, and subscribe to our Covid-19 podcast for the latest news and analysis on the pandemic.

American companies would lose hundreds of billions of dollars if they slashed investment in China or the nations increased tariffs, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce said in a report highlighting the cost of a full decoupling of the world's largest economies.

What's moving markets
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By submitting my information, I agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Service and to receive offers and promotions from Bloomberg.

American gross domestic product would see a one-time loss of as much as $500 billion should U.S. companies reduce foreign direct investment in China by half, the Washington-based business lobbying group said in a report on Wednesday. Applying a 25% tariff on all two-way trade would trim U.S. GDP by $190 billion annually by 2025, the group said in a joint study with Rhodium Group, a New York data and analytics firm.

Read More: How China Won Trump's 'Good and Easy to Win' Trade War

The analysis highlights the costs of different policies as the Biden administration weighs the best strategy for facing challenges posed by China. The chamber said that the U.S. should work with allies to confront China on its state-led economic model and national security concerns rather than acting unilaterally, and without undermining U.S. productivity and innovation.

A "balanced and rational approach" to commercial relations with China is in the interests of both the U.S. and the American business community, the chamber said. At the same time, the group said that it's in favor of a "rules-based" economic order and against Chinese practices that are unfair to American companies.

Well Below Target

China's 2020 imports from the U.S. nowhere near the agreed target

Source: Bloomberg calculations based on official Chinese data

The U.S. and China fought a trade war under President Donald Trump that continues to see tariffs applied on about $335 billion of Chinese goods annually, according to the calculations by Chad Bown at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. That's despite a phase-one agreement reached in 2020, where China promised to purchase more American products. Beijing missed its 2020 trade-deal targets as the global pandemic upended shipping and supply chains.

Under the pact, the Asian nation pledged to buy an extra $200 billion in U.S. agriculture, energy and manufactured products over the 2017 level in the two years through the end of 2021.

The deal also didn't fully address some of the biggest grievances of American companies, such as China's theft of intellectual property, forced technology transfer and subsidies for domestic industries.

Read More: China Fails to Meet U.S. Trade Deal Target in 2020 Amid Pandemic

In addition to reduced goods exports, the study estimated that if future Chinese and tourism and education spending were reduced by half from pre-pandemic levels, the U.S. would lose $15 billion to $30 billion per year in services trade exports. A decoupling would hurt spending on research and development in the U.S. that supports China operations, though this impact is harder to quantify, the chamber said.

The chamber's report also studied the potential decoupling impact on four industries. It found that losing access to China's semiconductor market would cause $54 billion to $124 billion in lost output and put 100,000 U.S. jobs at risk. The imposition of tariffs could result in as much as $38 billion in output losses and nearly 100,000 jobs in the chemicals industry.

Losing access to China's market for U.S. aircraft and commercial aviation services could cost $51 billion annually in output, or $875 billion cumulatively by 2038. Lost market share in medical devices would result in $23.6 billion in annual revenue, the chamber said.

Supply Lines is a daily newsletter that tracks Covid-19's impact on trade. Sign up here, and subscribe to our Covid-19 podcast for the latest news and analysis on the pandemic.

American companies would lose hundreds of billions of dollars if they slashed investment in China or the nations increased tariffs, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce said in a report highlighting the cost of a full decoupling of the world's largest economies.

What's moving markets
Start your day with the 5 Things newsletter.
By submitting my information, I agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Service and to receive offers and promotions from Bloomberg.

American gross domestic product would see a one-time loss of as much as $500 billion should U.S. companies reduce foreign direct investment in China by half, the Washington-based business lobbying group said in a report on Wednesday. Applying a 25% tariff on all two-way trade would trim U.S. GDP by $190 billion annually by 2025, the group said in a joint study with Rhodium Group, a New York data and analytics firm.

Read More: How China Won Trump's 'Good and Easy to Win' Trade War

The analysis highlights the costs of different policies as the Biden administration weighs the best strategy for facing challenges posed by China. The chamber said that the U.S. should work with allies to confront China on its state-led economic model and national security concerns rather than acting unilaterally, and without undermining U.S. productivity and innovation.

A "balanced and rational approach" to commercial relations with China is in the interests of both the U.S. and the American business community, the chamber said. At the same time, the group said that it's in favor of a "rules-based" economic order and against Chinese practices that are unfair to American companies.

Well Below Target

China's 2020 imports from the U.S. nowhere near the agreed target

Source: Bloomberg calculations based on official Chinese data

The U.S. and China fought a trade war under President Donald Trump that continues to see tariffs applied on about $335 billion of Chinese goods annually, according to the calculations by Chad Bown at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. That's despite a phase-one agreement reached in 2020, where China promised to purchase more American products. Beijing missed its 2020 trade-deal targets as the global pandemic upended shipping and supply chains.

Under the pact, the Asian nation pledged to buy an extra $200 billion in U.S. agriculture, energy and manufactured products over the 2017 level in the two years through the end of 2021.

The deal also didn't fully address some of the biggest grievances of American companies, such as China's theft of intellectual property, forced technology transfer and subsidies for domestic industries.

Read More: China Fails to Meet U.S. Trade Deal Target in 2020 Amid Pandemic

In addition to reduced goods exports, the study estimated that if future Chinese and tourism and education spending were reduced by half from pre-pandemic levels, the U.S. would lose $15 billion to $30 billion per year in services trade exports. A decoupling would hurt spending on research and development in the U.S. that supports China operations, though this impact is harder to quantify, the chamber said.

The chamber's report also studied the potential decoupling impact on four industries. It found that losing access to China's semiconductor market would cause $54 billion to $124 billion in lost output and put 100,000 U.S. jobs at risk. The imposition of tariffs could result in as much as $38 billion in output losses and nearly 100,000 jobs in the chemicals industry.

Losing access to China's market for U.S. aircraft and commercial aviation services could cost $51 billion annually in output, or $875 billion cumulatively by 2038. Lost market share in medical devices would result in $23.6 billion in annual revenue, the chamber said.


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