Saturday, February 22, 2020

Fascist attacks on democracy [feedly]

Fascist attacks on democracy
http://understandingsociety.blogspot.com/2020/02/fascist-attacks-on-democracy.html


The hate-based murders of at least nine young people in Hanau, Germany this week brought the world's attention once again to right-wing extremism in Germany and elsewhere. The prevalence of right-wing extremist violence in Germany today is shocking, and it presents a deadly challenge to democratic institutions in modern Germany. Here is the German justice minister, quoted in the New York Times(link):
"Far-right terror is the biggest threat to our democracy right now," Christine Lambrecht, the justice minister, told reporters on Friday, a day after joining the country's president at a vigil for the victims. "This is visible in the number and intensity of attacks."
Extremist political parties like the Alternative for Germany and the National Democratic Party (linklink) have moved from fringe extremism to powerful political organizations in Germany, and it is not clear that the German government has strategies that will work in reducing their power and influence. Most important, these parties, and many other lesser organizations, spread a message of populist hate, division, and distrust that motivates some Germans to turn to violence against immigrants and other targeted minorities. These political messages can rightly be blamed for cultivating an atmosphere of hate and resentment that provokes violence. Right-wing populist extremism is a fertile ground for political and social violence; hate-based activism leads to violence. (Here is an excellent report from the BBC on the political messages and growing political influence of AfD in Germany (link).)

Especially disturbing for the fate of democracy in Germany is the fact that there is a rising level of violence and threat against local elected officials in Germany over their support for refugee integration. (Here is a story in the New York Times (2/21/20) that documents this aspect of the crisis; link.) The story opens with an account of the near-fatal attack in 2015 on Henriette Reker, candidate for mayor of Cologne. She survived the attack and won the election, but has been subject to horrendous death threats ever since. And she is not alone; local officials in many towns and municipalities have been subjected to similar persistent threats. According to the story, there were 1,240 politically motivated attacks against politicians and elected officials (link). Of these attacks, about 33% are attributed to right-wing extremists, about double the number attributed to left-wing extremists. Here is a summary from the Times story:
The acrimony is felt in town halls and village streets, where mayors now find themselves the targets of threats and intimidation. The effect has been chilling. 
Some have stopped speaking out. Many have quit, tried to arm themselves or taken on police protection. The risks have mounted to such an extent that some German towns are unable to field candidates for leadership at all. 
"Our democracy is under attack at the grass-roots level," Ms. Reker said in a recent interview in Cologne's City Hall. "This is the foundation of our democracy, and it is vulnerable." 
This is particularly toxic for the institutions of democratic governance, because the direct and obvious goal is to intimidate government officials from carrying out their duties. This is fascism.

What strategies exist that will help to reduce the appeal of right-wing extremism and the currents of hatred and resentment that these forms of populism thrive on? In practical terms, how can liberal democracies (e.g. Germany, Britain, or the United States) reduce the appeal of white supremacy, nationalism, racism, and xenophobia while enhancing citizens' commitment to the civic values of equality and rule of law?

One strategy involves strengthening the institutions of democracy and the trust and confidence that citizens have in those institutions. This is the approach developed in an important 2013 issue of Daedalus (link) devoted to civility and the common good. This approach includes efforts at improving civic education for young people. It also includes reforming political and electoral institutions in such a way as to address the obvious sources of inequality of voice that they currently involve. In the United States, for example, the prevalence of extreme and politicized practices of gerrymandering has the obvious effect of reducing citizens' confidence in their electoral institutions. Their elected officials have deliberately taken policy steps to reduce citizens' ability to affect electoral outcomes. Likewise, the erosion of voting rights in the United States through racially aimed changes to voter registration procedures, polling hours and locations, and other aspects of the institutions of voting provokes cynicism and detachment from the institutions of government. (McAdam and Kloos make these arguments in Deeply Divided: Racial Politics and Social Movements in Postwar America.)

Second, much of the appeal of right-wing extremism turns on lies about minorities (including immigrants). Mainstream and progressive parties should do a much better job of communicating the advantages to the whole of society that flow from diversity, talented immigrants, and an inclusive community. Mainstream parties need to expose and de-legitimize the lies that right-wing politicians use to stir up anger, resentment, and hatred against various other groups in society, and they need to convey a powerful and positive narrative of their own.

Another strategy to enhance civility and commitment to core democratic values is to reduce the economic inequalities that all too often provoke resentment and distrust across groups within society. Justin Gest illustrates this dynamic in The New Minority; the dis-employed workers in East London and Youngstown, Ohio have good reason to think their lives and concerns have been discarded by the economies in which they live. As John Rawls believed, a stable democracy depends upon the shared conviction that the basic institutions of society are working to the advantage of all citizens, not just the few (Justice as Fairness: A Restatement).

Finally, there is the police response. Every government has a responsibility to protect its citizens from violence. When groups actively conspire to commit violence against others -- whether it is Baader-Meinhof, radical spinoffs of AfD, or the KKK -- the state has a responsibility to uncover, punish, and disband those groups. Germany's anti-terrorist police forces are now placing higher priority on right-wing terrorism than they apparently have done in the past, and this is a clear responsibility for a government with duty for ensuring the safety of the public (link). (It is worrisome to find that members of the police and military are themselves sometimes implicated in right-wing extremist groups in Germany.) Here are a few paragraphs from a recent Times article on arrests of right-wing terrorists:
BERLIN — Twelve men — one a police employee — were arrested Friday on charges of forming and supporting a far-right terrorism network planning wide-ranging attacks on politicians, asylum seekers and Muslims, the authorities said. 
The arrests come as Germany confronts both an increase in violence and an infiltration of its security services by far-right extremists. After focusing for years on the risks from Islamic extremists and foreign groups, officials are recalibrating their counterterrorism strategy to address threats from within. 
The arrests are the latest in a series of episodes that Christine Lambrecht, the justice minister, called a "very worrying right-wing extremist and right-wing terrorist threat in our country." 
"We need to be particularly vigilant and act decisively against this threat," she said on Twitter. (link)
The German political system is not well prepared for the onslaught of radical right-wing populism and violence. But much the same can be said in the United States, with a president who espouses many of the same hate-based doctrines that fuel the rise of radical populism in other countries, and in a national climate where hate-based crimes have accelerated in the past several years. (Here is a recent review of hate-based groups and crimes in the United States provided by the Southern Poverty Law Center; link.) And, like Germany, the FBI has been slow to place appropriate priority on the threat of right-wing terrorism in the United States.

(This opinion piece in the New York Times by Anna Sauerbrey (link) describes one tool available to the German government that is not available in the United States -- strong legal prohibitions of neo-Nazi propaganda and incitement to hatred:
"There is the legal concept of Volksverhetzung," the incitement to hatred: Anybody who denigrates an individual or a group based on their ethnicity or religion, or anybody who tries to rouse hatred or promotes violence against such a group or an individual, could face a sentence of up to five years in prison.
Because of virtually unlimited protection of freedom of speech and association guaranteed in the First Amendment of the Bill of Rights, these prohibitions do not exist in the United States. Here is an earlier discussion of this topic (link).)

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Friday, February 21, 2020

The US Rental Housing Market [feedly]

The US Rental Housing Market
http://conversableeconomist.blogspot.com/2020/02/the-us-rental-housing-market.html

The US rental housing market is in the middle of some major shifts, as outlines by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University in its report "America's Rental Housing 2020" (January 2020). Here are some of the changes.

The "rentership rate"--the share of households renting--rose sharply from about 2004 to about 2016, before leveling out the last few years.

From 2000 to 2010, most of the growth in the housing rental market was coming from those with relatively lower incomes. But in the last decade, most of the growth in the rental housing market is coming from those with relatively higher incomes. "But at 22 percent in 2019, rentership rates among households earning $75,000 or more are at their highest levels on record. Even accounting for overall income growth, rentership rates for households in the top decile jumped from 8.0 percent in 2005 to 15.1 percent in 2018 as their numbers more than doubled."
Rent is a big burden for many. The report looks at renters who are "cost burdened," referring to those who pay more than 30% of their income in rent. "Thanks to strong growth in the number of high-income renters, the share of renters with cost burdens fell more noticeably from a peak of 50.7 percent in 2011 to 47.4 percent in 2017, followed by a modest 0.1 percentage point increase in 2018. ... Meanwhile, 10.9 million renters—or one in four—spent more than half their incomes on housing in 2018." Another big shift is that there is a rise in the "cost-burdened renters" in middle-income groups (say, $30,000-$75,000 per year in annual income), especially in  "larger, high-cost metropolitan areas."

Vacancy rates for rentals are down, and are especially low for lower-cost, lower-quality rentals.
Meanwhile, rents are consistently rising faster than inflation.
The value of apartment properties has risen quickly, too.

Some background factors are also shifting. In the market for rental properties, stock of rentals rising in two areas  over last 15-20 year: single-family homes, and multi-family buildings with 20 or more units. These changes represent a shift in the rental housing market away from individual landlords and toward corporate ownership of rentals. In the area of single-family homes, for example, a number of institutional investors bought houses as rental properties in the aftermath of the drop in housing prices around 2010. The report notes:
Ownership of rental housing shifted noticeably between 2001 and 2015, with institutional owners such as LLCs, LLPs, and REITs accounting for a growing share of the stock. Meanwhile, individual ownership fell across rental properties of all sizes, but especially among buildings with 5–24 units. Indeed, the share of mid-sized apartment properties owned by individuals dropped from nearly two-thirds in 2001 to about two-fifths in 2015. Given that units in these structures are generally older and have relatively low rents, institutional investors may consider them prime candidates for purchase and upgrading. These changes in ownership have thus helped to keep rents on the climb.
Another shift is that many renters seem happier being renters, and less likely to view a rental as a short-term stop on the path to homeownership. Renters are staying in place longer, too. The report notes:
Changes in attitudes toward homeownership may lead some households to continue to rent later in life. The latest Freddie Mac Survey of Homeowners and Renters reports that the share of genX renters (aged 39–54 in 2019) with no interest in ever owning homes rose from 10 percent in March 2017 to 17 percent in April 2019. ... Fully 75 percent of renters overall, and 72 percent of genX renters, stated that renting best fits their current lifestyle. ...
[M]any renters are staying in the same rental units for longer periods. Between 2008 and 2018, the share of renters that had lived in their units for at least two years increased from 36 percent to 41 percent among those under age 35, and from 62 percent to 68 percent among those aged 35–64. Similarly, the National Apartment Association reported a turnover rate of just 46.8 percent in 2018— the lowest rate of move-outs since the survey began in 2000.
The US rate of homeownership has often been in the range of 63-65%, going up above that range during the housing boom around 2006, back down after that, and then rebounding a bit in the last few years.  Looking at long-run trends of aging, marriage/parenthood, and income, the US Department of Housing and Urban Development organized a pro-and-con symposium a few years ago on the question of whether the US homeownership rate will have fallen to less than 50% by 2050. Homeownership rates for young adults and for blacks are especially low. The US rate of homeownership was about average by international standards 20-25 years ago, but now is below the average. For earlier posts on these themes, see:


With regard to the broader social issue of rental prices being so high for so many people, the economic answer is straightforward. For those with very low incomes, help them afford the rent. But for the market as a whole, the way to get lower prices is to raise supply. For example, it's an interesting question as to why the individual landlord has been in such decline, and the extent to which this drop has been due to additional administrative, regulatory, and zoning costs being imposed at the state and local level. It seems to me possible that we are in the middle of a social shift in which many households at a variety of income levels put less emphasis on homeownership--which in turn means greater public attention to conditions of supply and demand in housing rental markets  

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Thursday, February 20, 2020

Resources to Help Gig Workers Understand Taxes [feedly]

Resources to Help Gig Workers Understand Taxes
https://www.cbpp.org/blog/resources-to-help-gig-workers-understand-taxes

The gig economy has grown to about a quarter of all workers, but their participation in it varies widely: while 1 in 10 workers relies on gig work for their primary income, most gig workers are active just a few months in a year. Such employment can have complicated tax implications, which is why CBPP's Get It Back campaign offers an online tax tool to help these workers understand how they can file a correct tax return and reduce their tax liability.

Aimed at transportation workers, who dominate what's known as the online platform economy, this tool — the Roadmap to Rideshare Taxes — is a helpful guide with step-by-step information on how to pay taxes when the IRS treats you like a business. The site covers tricky self-employment tax topics, including:

There's also a one-page cheat sheet that guides rideshare workers through carefully tracking their deductions, paying taxes quarterly, and filing their tax returns annually. Tax deductions for driving expenses (like the mileage deduction) are the best way to reduce the amount of income subject to both income and self-employment taxes.

In addition, self-employed workers need to pay taxes throughout the year because, unlike with an employer, platform companies don't withhold a portion of workers' taxes from their paychecks. Anyone expecting to owe more than $1,000 in taxes (which is anyone with roughly $5,000 in self-employment income) must pay estimated taxes quarterly. The amount owed can be hard to calculate without outside assistance, and our tool helps with that, too.

Gig work offers important benefits for many, including flexible hours, a low barrier to entry, and immediate work. But filing taxes from such work can be stressful and complex. The Roadmap to Rideshare Taxes is designed to help.

Have questions or suggestions? Email eitcoutreach@cbpp.org.


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Wednesday, February 19, 2020

Budget Exposes Trump Administration’s Empty Rhetoric on Homelessness, Fair Housing [feedly]

Budget Exposes Trump Administration's Empty Rhetoric on Homelessness, Fair Housing
https://www.cbpp.org/blog/budget-exposes-trump-administrations-empty-rhetoric-on-homelessness-fair-housing

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The Trump Administration has said that it wants to help communities address the nation's serious housing affordability challenges, but the President's 2021 budget would do the opposite, slashing housing assistance and community development aid next year by $8.6 billion, or 15.2 percent (not counting the impact of inflation).


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