Links (9/17/18) [feedly]

Links (9/17/18)
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2018/09/links-91718.html

• The Credit Crunch and the Great Recession (Wonkish) - Paul Krugman
• Comments on monetary policy at the effective lower bound - Janet Yellen
• Why central banks should not be inflation nutters - VoxEU
• Can Trade Agreements Be a Friend to Labor? - Dani Rodrik
• What Do We Actually Know About the Economy? (Wonkish) - Paul Krugman
• Central Banks Strike Back Against Political Interference - Bloomberg
• Economics Gets It Wrong Because Research Is Hard to Replicate - Bloomberg
• Ten Years Ago - Economic Principals
• Output Gaps and Robust Monetary Policy Rules - Roberto Billi
• Charting the Financial Crisis - Brookings
• Can codetermination help fix America's wage problem? - Lane Kenworthy
• The Most Addictive Theorem in Applied Mathematics - Scientific American
• The Economist as Public Intellectual - Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
• Interview with Chad Syverson - Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
• Ten Year House Price Volatility - Richard Green
• Another lesson of the GFC unlearnt - mainly macro
• We're Measuring the Economy All Wrong - The New York Times
• Crisis firefighters still uninterested in fire prevention - FT
• The Fed's Floor System: Sayonara? - Macro Musings
• Tax Cuts Are Costing the U.S. Treasury Money - Bloomberg
• Economic Security Programs Cut Poverty Nearly in Half Over Last 50 Years - CBPP
• What We Should Have Learned From the 2008 Financial Crisis - Reinhart and Reinhart
• Could A Coalition of the "Friends of Turkey" Ride to Turkey's Financial Rescue? - Brad Setser

 -- via my feedly newsfeed

Hurricane Anniversary Highlights Puerto Rico’s Need for Adequate Medicaid Funding [feedly]

Hurricane Anniversary Highlights Puerto Rico's Need for Adequate Medicaid Funding
https://www.cbpp.org/blog/hurricane-anniversary-highlights-puerto-ricos-need-for-adequate-medicaid-funding

A year after Hurricane Maria took an extraordinary human and economic toll on Puerto Rico, the island faces immediate recovery tasks as well as longer-term challenges that predated the storm, including a decade-long recession and an overwhelming debt burden. Inadequate federal Medicaid funding — far less than what Puerto Rico would have received if it were a state — has contributed significantly to the island's financial problems.  

 -- via my feedly newsfeed

By the Numbers: Income and Poverty, 2017 [feedly]

By the Numbers: Income and Poverty, 2017
https://www.epi.org/blog/by-the-numbers-income-and-poverty-2017/

Jump to statistics on:

• Earnings
• Incomes
• Poverty
• Policy / SPM

This fact sheet provides key numbers from today's new Census reports, Income and Poverty in the United States: 2017 and The Supplemental Poverty Measure: 2017. Each section has headline statistics from the reports for 2017, as well as comparisons to the previous year, to 2007 (the final year of the economic expansion that preceded the Great Recession), and to 2000 (the historical high point for many of the statistics in these reports.) All dollar values are adjusted for inflation (2017 dollars).

Earnings

Median annual earnings for men working full time fell 1.1 percent, to $52,146, in 2017.Men's earnings are down 2.5 percent since 2007, and are still 1.9 percent lower than they were in 2000.

Median annual earnings for women working full time fell 1.1 percent, to $41,977, in 2017.Women's earnings are up 0.9 percent since 2007, and are 7.1 percent higher than they were in 2000.

Median annual earnings for men working full time in 2017: $52,146

Change over time:

• 2016–2017: -1.1%
• 2007–2017: -2.5%
• 2000–2017: -1.9%

Median annual earnings for women working full time in 2017: $41,977

Change over time:

• 2016–2017: -1.1%
• 2007–2017: 0.9%
• 2000–2017: 7.1%

Incomes

Median household income rose 1.8 percent, to $61,372, in 2017. Median household income is down 0.1 percent since 2007, and is 0.8 percent lower than it was in 2000.

Median non-elderly household income rose 2.5 percent, to $69,928, in 2017. Median non-elderly household income is up 0.8 percent since 2007, and is still 2.7 percent lower than it was in 2000.

Median household income in 2017: $61,372

Change over time:

• 2016–2017: 1.8%
• 2007–2017: -0.1%
• 2000–2017: -0.8%

Median non-elderly household income in 2017: $69,628

Change over time:

• 2016–2017: 2.5%
• 2007–2017: 0.8%
• 2000–2017: -2.7%

Median household income for white, non-Hispanic households rose 2.6 percent, to $68,145, in 2017. Median household income is up 1.5 percent since 2007, and is 1.4 percent higher than it was in 2000.

Median household income for African American households fell 0.2 percent, to $40,258, in 2017. Median household income is down 2.9 percent since 2007, and is still 7.9 percent lower than it was in 2000.

Median household income for Hispanic households rose 3.7 percent, to $50,486, in 2017.Median household income is up 6.7 percent since 2007, and is 3.4 percent higher than it was in 2000.

Median white, non-Hispanic household income in 2017: $68,145

Change over time:

• 2016–2017: 2.6%
• 2007–2017: 1.5%
• 2000–2017: 1.4%

Median African American household income in 2017: $40,258

Change over time:

• 2016–2017: -0.2%
• 2007–2017: -2.9%
• 2000–2017: -7.9%

Median Hispanic household income in 2017: $50,486

Change over time:

• 2016–2017: 3.7%
• 2007–2017: 6.7%
• 2000–2017: 3.4%

Poverty

The poverty rate fell 0.4 percentage points, to 12.3 percent, in 2017. The poverty rate is 0.2 percentage points lower than in 2007. The poverty rate is 1.0 percentage points higher than it was in 2000.

The child poverty rate fell 0.5 percentage points, to 17.5 percent, in 2017. The child poverty rate was also 0.5 percentage points lower in 2017 than it was in 2007, although it is still 1.3 percentage points higher than it was in 2000.

Poverty rate in 2017: 12.3%

Change over time:

• 2016–2017: -0.4 percentage points
• 2007–2017: -0.2 percentage points
• 2000–2017: 1.0 percentage points

Poverty rate for children in 2017: 17.5%

Change over time:

• 2016–2017: -0.5 percentage points
• 2007–2017: -0.5 percentage points
• 2000–2017: 1.3 percentage points

The white, non-Hispanic poverty rate fell 0.1 percentage points, to 8.7 percent, in 2017.The white, non-Hispanic poverty rate is 0.5 percentage points higher than in 2007, and is 1.3 percentage points higher than it was in 2000.

The African American poverty rate fell 0.8 percentage points, to 21.2 percent, in 2017.The African American poverty rate is 3.3 percentage points lower than in 2007, and is now 1.3 percentage points lower than it was in 2000.

The Hispanic poverty rate fell 1.1 percentage points, to 18.3 percent, in 2017. The Hispanic poverty rate is 3.2 percentage points lower than in 2007, and is 3.2 percentage points lower than it was in 2000.

White, non-Hispanic poverty rate in 2017: 8.7%

Change over time:

• 2016–2017: -0.1 percentage points
• 2007–2017: 0.5 percentage points
• 2000–2017: 1.3 percentage points

African American poverty rate in 2017: 21.2%

Change over time:

• 2016–2017: -0.8 percentage points
• 2007–2017: -3.3 percentage points
• 2000–2017: -1.3 percentage points

Hispanic poverty rate in 2017: 18.3%

Change over time:

• 2016–2017: -1.1 percentage points
• 2007–2017: -3.2 percentage points
• 2000–2017: -3.2 percentage points

Policy matters

The Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) is an alternative poverty measure published by the Census Bureau since 2010 that is more sophisticated than the official poverty measure referenced earlier in this fact sheet. The SPM takes into account an array of typical expenses—such as housing, food, clothing, health care, and more—as well as people's income from both market sources and government programs. Using the Supplemental Poverty Measure, we can evaluate how government assistance lifts people out of poverty.

SPM poverty rate in 2017: 13.9%

Impact of government assistance on poverty as measured by the SPM:

• Social Security kept 27.0 million people out of poverty in 2017.
• Refundable tax credits (such as the Earned Income Tax Credit) kept 8.3 million people out of poverty in 2017.
• The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, also known as food stamps) kept 3.4 million people out of poverty in 2017.
• Unemployment insurance kept 542,000 people out of poverty in 2017.

SNAP stands for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.

 -- via my feedly newsfeed

Revealing political tour in St Petersburg

A most revealing tour yesterday in St. Petersburg: 1) the "museum of political history"; and 2) a memorialized apartment of Sergei Kirov, a leader of the CPSU and the popular mayor of Leningrad until he was assassinated in 1934. First, tour guides in every subject domain must be examined and relicensed by the state annually. So, the guide scripts and "facts"  are centrally approved.

Second, Lenin has very nearly been, and is being ERASED: example: "He was a German agent, bent upon ceding lands and treasure in WW1, a terrorist who staged a 'coup' to overthrow the "real' revolution led by Kerensky". The smugness and derision of our guide was as thick as a pound of butter on a saltine. 

Third, there was no need for revolution at all, since Tsar Alexander II freed the serfs had he not been assassinated by "terrorists".

Fourth, the Romanovs -- perhaps the most extractive and putrid autocracy in human history -- are raised from their porcelin, marble and golden graves and memorialized with apologies reminiscent of "Gone With the Wind" fables that glossed over the stench of the US Confederacy.

Fifth, Stalin gets a halfway pass, despite his manifest crimes. I am speculating a bit, but the deep, deep pride of the Russian peoples immense sacrifices, and profound victory in WWII cannot be erased, yet, from common memory. Thus Stalin's crimes -- the RED TERROR (this phrase was repeated 30 times in a 3 hour tour, and blamed primarily on the "terrorist Lenin")  are held to just be a feature of "communism",  not Stalin's personal character.

Sixth, for those who think this script was an introduction to a rejection of authoritarianism -- sorry, the word "democracy" was not mentioned once.

A most revealing tour yesterday in St. Petersburg: 1) the "museum of political history"; and 2) a memorialized apartment of Sergei Kirov, a leader of the CPSU and the popular mayor of Leningrad until he was assassinated in 1934. First, tour guides in every subject domain must be examined and relicensed by the state annually. So, the guide scripts and "facts"  are centrally approved.

Second, Lenin has very nearly been, and is being ERASED: example: "He was a German agent, bent upon ceding lands and treasure in WW1, a terrorist who staged a 'coup' to overthrow the "real' revolution led by Kerensky". The smugness and derision of our guide was as thick as a pound of butter on a saltine. 

Third, there was no need for revolution at all, since Tsar Alexander II freed the serfs had he not been assassinated by "terrorists".

Fourth, the Romanovs -- perhaps the most extractive and putrid autocracy in human history -- are raised from their porcelin, marble and golden graves and memorialized with apologies reminiscent of "Gone With the Wind" fables that glossed over the stench of the US Confederacy.

Fifth, Stalin gets a halfway pass, despite his manifest crimes. I am speculating a bit, but the deep, deep pride of the Russian peoples immense sacrifices, and profound victory in WWII cannot be erased, yet, from common memory. Thus Stalin's crimes -- the RED TERROR (this phrase was repeated 30 times in a 3 hour tour, and blamed primarily on the "terrorist Lenin")  are held to just be a feature of "communism",  not Stalin's personal character.

Sixth, for those who think this script was an introduction to a rejection of authoritarianism -- sorry, the word "democracy" was not mentioned once.

Globalization good and bad

Globalization is undermining the "sovereignty" of every nation. Is this good or bad? The laws of uneven development lean towards Bad where relationships are unequal. But also towards good, since the requirements of peace and democratic societies under globalization mandate the rise of internationalism over nationalism, and equity and equality over imperial prerogatives. Nonetheless, the oligarchs of the world, including both the US and Russia, are mounting a fierce resistance. A reckoning of vast scale seems unavoidable.

Globalization good and bad