Tuesday, March 28, 2017

Low wage African American workers have increased annual work hours most since 1979 [feedly]

Low wage African American workers have increased annual work hours most since 1979
http://www.epi.org/blog/low-wage-african-american-workers-have-increased-annual-work-hours-most-since-1979/

Over the last several decades, black workers have been offering more to the economy and the labor market to incredibly disappointing results in pay and unemployment. Some have argued that the disparity in wages between blacks and white is the result of white workers working longer and harder than black workers. They blame black workers for racial wage gaps, saying that they should do anything from getting more education to simply working harder. Such explanations minimize the role of racial discrimination on labor market outcomes, while perpetuating racial bias and stereotypes of black workers as unmotivated and lazy.

And the data show they are simply false: hours and weeks worked have increased for both races, with a larger increase for black workers over the last several decades. The increase in annual hours is particularly striking for workers in the bottom 40 percent of the wage distribution, where it has been driven almost entirely by women.

Table 1 provides data on annual hours worked in 1979 and 2015 for workers ages 18–64 years old who report non-zero earnings during the year (so the averages are conditioned on working. In forthcoming research, we explicitly address trends in labor force participation). Work hours include paid vacations and time off, and therefore represent paid hours. The table also presents the percent change from 1979 to 2015 in annual hours, weeks worked, and weekly hours. These data are shown by race and wage fifth, or quintile.

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Monday, March 27, 2017

Enlighten Radio Podcasts:Labor Beat hosts WV AFL-CIO Prez Josh Sword, and WV Senator John Ungar

John Case has sent you a link to a blog:



Blog: Enlighten Radio Podcasts
Post: Labor Beat hosts WV AFL-CIO Prez Josh Sword, and WV Senator John Ungar
Link: http://podcasts.enlightenradio.org/2017/03/labor-beat-hosts-wv-afl-cio-prez-josh.html

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Bernstein: Does the health reform fail mean tax cuts unlikely? I strongly doubt it. [feedly]

Does the health reform fail mean tax cuts unlikely? I strongly doubt it.
http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/does-the-health-reform-fail-mean-tax-cuts-unlikely-i-strongly-doubt-it/

I and my CBPP colleagues will have much more to say about this in coming weeks, but there's no rest down here at Dysfunction Junction as we move from health care to taxes.

If you go by this AM's papers, there's a meme developing that tax reform looks just as hard as was health care reform. From this AMs NYT (my bold):

Picking themselves up after the bruising collapse of their health care plan, President Trump and Republicans in Congress will start this week on a legislative obstacle course that will be even more arduous: the first overhaul of the tax code in three decades.

"It's like asking whether climbing Kilimanjaro or another mountain of equal height is harder," said Mr. Graetz, who was a Treasury Department official in the early 1990s. "They are both very hard…"

Hmmm. I'm not sure this is right.

Obviously, and especially after last Friday, betting on this Congress' ability to legislate is not exactly a safe bet. But here are some mitigating points to consider:

–Perhaps the most important point is that while the Republican caucus is far from united on what health care reform should look like, they're far less divided on health care. They really have no idea what they want to do re health care–their "bill" made absolutely no sense to anyone and was really a big tax cut, thinly disguised as health reform. But they know what they want to do with taxes, which is cut them, preferably for everyone, but mostly for the wealthy.

–How can I say the R's are united on tax cuts when they disagree about the Border Adjusted Tax, or BAT? Again, I think tax-reform-watchers are overplaying this card. Yes, this is a complicated, contentious idea favored by Brady and Ryan, and yes, it scores as raising needed revenue to partially offset the cuts. But when it comes to following his guidance, Ryan's stock is low and falling, and if you think an R tax cut hinges on getting the BAT, I urge a rethink.

–Based on the failure to cut $1 trillion (over 10 years) in taxes in the health bill, the difficulty moving the BAT, and the need to move tax reform without D votes (meaning adding to the deficit outside the 10-year budget window is disallowed), ambitious tax reform facing challenges for sure. But that leaves less-ambitious reform, ala George W. Bush. Cuts in rates, sure, but smaller than they'd like. No permanent reform, but a sunset after 10 years. Lots of dynamic scoring and magic asterisks ("assume a bunch of loophole closing"). EG, I see the corp rate coming down from its current 35 percent to ~25 percent instead of the 15 percent in Trump's plan. Maybe tax cuts ultimately amount to 1-2 percent of GDP versus the 2-4 percent Trump and the R's originally craved.

–How, then, do they pull this off if they lose their big payfor? Easy: larger deficits. Check out this quote from an influential R (from the Times piece linked above):

In a rare shift, Representative Mark Meadows of North Carolina, whose House Freedom Caucus effectively torpedoed the health legislation, said Sunday on ABC's "This Week" that he would not protest if tax cuts were not offset by new spending cuts or new streams of revenue, such as an import tax [ie, the BAT].

"I think there's a lot of flexibility in terms of some of my contacts and conservatives in terms of not making it totally offset," he said. "Does it have to be fully offset? My personal response is no."

Remember, many R's do not care about deficits and only feign concern to block spending plans and shrink government. The idea that even deep seas of red ink will dissuade them from cutting taxes seems awfully naive to me.

So I'm not saying it's going to be easy, but if you're thinking the failure to repeal and replace means the odds of passing a tax cut are well below half, I suspect you're wrong.


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The soft side of critical realism [feedly]

The soft side of critical realism
http://understandingsociety.blogspot.com/2017/03/the-soft-side-of-critical-realism.html



Critical realism has appealed to a range of sociologists and political scientists, in part because of the legitimacy it renders for the study of social structures and organizations. However, many of the things sociologists study are not "things" at all, but rather subjective features of social experience -- mental frameworks, identities, ideologies, value systems, knowledge frameworks. Is it possible to be a critical realist about "subjective" social experience and formations of consciousness? Here I want to argue in favor of a CR treatment of subjective experience and thought.

First, let's recall what it means to be realist about something. It means to take a cognitive stance towards the formation that treats it as being independent from the concepts we use to categorize it. It is to postulate that there are facts about the formation that are independent from our perceptions of it or the ways we conceptualize it. It is to attribute to the formation a degree of solidity in the world, a set of characteristics that can be empirically investigated and that have causal powers in the world. It is to negate the slogan, "all that is solid melts into air" with regard to these kinds of formations. "Real" does not mean "tangible" or "material"; it means independent, persistent, and causal.  

So to be realist about values, cognitive frameworks, practices, or paradigms is to assert that these assemblages of mental attitudes and features have social instantiation, that they persist over time, and that they have causal powers within the social realm. By this definition, mental frameworks are perfectly real. They have visible social foundations -- concrete institutions and practices through which they are transmitted and reproduced. And they have clear causal powers within the social realm.

A few examples will help make this clear.

Consider first the assemblage of beliefs, attitudes, and behavioral repertoires that constitute the race regime in a particular time and place. Children and adults from different racial groups in a region have internalized a set of ideas and behaviors about each other that are inflected by race and gender. These beliefs, norms, and attitudes can be investigated through a variety of means, including surveys and ethnographic observation. Through their behaviors and interactions with each other they gain practice in their mastery of the regime, and they influence outcomes and future behaviors. They transmit and reproduce features of the race regime to peers and children. There is a self-reinforcing discipline to such an assemblage of attitudes and behaviors which shapes the behaviors and expectations of others, both internally and coercively. This formation has causal effects on the local society in which it exists, and it is independent from the ideas we have about it. It is by this set of factors, a real part of local society. (If is also a variable and heterogeneous reality, across time and space.) We can trace the sociological foundations of the formation within the population, the institutional arrangements through which minds and behaviors are shaped. And we can identify many social effects of specific features of regimes like this. (Here is an earlier post on the race regime of Jim Crow; linklink.)

Here is a second useful example -- a knowledge and practice system like Six Sigma. This is a bundle of ideas about business management. It involves some fairly specific doctrines and technical practices. There are training institutions through which individuals become expert at Six Sigma. And there is a distributed group of expert practitioners across a number of companies, consulting firms, and universities who possess highly similar sets of knowledge, judgment, and perception.  This is a knowledge and practice community, with specific and identifiable causal consequences. 

These are two concrete examples. Many others could be offered -- workingclass solidarity, bourgeois modes of dress and manners, the social attitudes and behaviors of French businessmen, the norms of Islamic charity, the Protestant Ethic, Midwestern modesty. 

So, indeed, it is entirely legitimate to be a critical realist about mental frameworks. More, the realist who abjures study of such frameworks as social realities is doomed to offer explanations with mysterious gaps. He or she will find large historical anomalies, where available structural causes fail to account for important historical outcomes.

Consider Marx and Engels' words in the Communist Manifesto:
All fixed, fast-frozen relations, with their train of ancient and venerable prejudices and opinions, are swept away, all new-formed ones become antiquated before they can ossify. All that is solid melts into air, all that is holy is profaned, and man is at last compelled to face with sober senses his real conditions of life, and his relations with his kind.
This is an interesting riff on social reality, capturing both change and persistence, appearance and reality. A similar point of view is expressed in Marx's theory of the fetishism of commodities: beliefs exist, they have social origins, and it is possible to demystify them on occasion by uncovering the distortions they convey of real underlying social relations. 

There is one more perplexing twist here for realists. Both structures and features of consciousness are real in their social manifestations. However, one goal of critical philosophy is to show how the mental structures of a given class or gender are in fact false consciousness. It is a true fact that British citizens in 1871 had certain ideas about the workings of contemporary capitalism. But it is an important function of critical theory to demonstrate that those beliefs were wrong, and to more accurately account for the underlying social relations they attempt to describe. And it is important to discover the mechanisms through which those false beliefs came into existence. 

So critical realism must both identify real structures of thought in society and demystify these thought systems when they systematically falsify the underlying social reality. Decoding the social realities of patriarchy, racism, and religious bigotry is itself a key task for a critical social sciences.

Dave Elder-Vass is one of the few critical realists who have devoted attention to the reality of a subjective social thing, a system of norms. In The Causal Power of Social Structures: Emergence, Structure and Agency he tries to show how the ideas of a "norm circle" helps explicate the objectivity, persistence, and reality of a socially embodied norm system. Here's is an earlier post on E-V's work (link).


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National Foreclosure: 10-Years Later [feedly]

National Foreclosure: 10-Years Later
http://ritholtz.com/2017/03/national-foreclosure-10-years-later/


Comprehensive data and analysis on completed U.S. foreclosures and foreclosure inventory: Fascinating report from Core Logic on the past decade, looking at from a national and state by state perspective. Definitely worth checking out the complete report (click on graphic below).   United States Residential Foreclosure Crisis: Ten Years Later click for full report SOURCE:…

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The post National Foreclosure: 10-Years Later appeared first on The Big Picture.

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Dow Industrials Average, 1896-2016 [feedly]

Dow Industrials Average, 1896-2016
http://ritholtz.com/2017/03/dow-industrials-average-1896-2016/


This graph of the Dow's performance since 1896 that charts the index's peaks and troughs, reflecting a variety of economic triumphs and tribulations. It intriguing to consider the short term reaction to various news events within the broader context: fear, market wobbles and occasional over-reaction. "There is no get-rich-quick scheme. There is no such thing…

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The post Dow Industrials Average, 1896-2016 appeared first on The Big Picture.


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Must-Read: Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff are mainstream economists. The fact is that they had much more influence on e... [feedly]

Must-Read: Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff are mainstream economists. The fact is that they had much more influence on e...
http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/03/must-read-carmen-reinhart-and-ken-rogoff-are-mainstream-economists-the-fact-is-that-they-had-much-more-influence-on-eco.html

Must-Read: Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff are mainstream economists. The fact is that they had much more influence on economic policy in 2009-2013 than did Simon Wren-Lewis and me. Simon needs to face that fact squarely, rather than to dodge it. The fact is that the "mainstream economists, and most mainstream economists" who were heard in the public sphere were not against austerity, but rather split, with, if anything, louder and larger voices on the pro-austerity side. (IMHO, Simon Wren-Lewis half admits this with his denunciations of "City economists".) For this reason, I think Simon's response here to Unlearning Economics is ineffective, and unhelpful:

Simon Wren-LewisOn Criticising the Existence of Mainstream Economics: "I'm very grateful to Unlearning Economics (UE) for writing in a clear and forceful way a defence of the idea that attacking mainstream economics is a progressive endeavor...

...I think such attacks are far from progressive.... Devoting a lot of time to exposing students to contrasting economic frameworks (feminist, Austrian, post-Keynesian)... means cutting time spent on learning the essential tools that any economist needs.... Let me start at the end of the UE piece:

The case against austerity does not depend on whether it is 'good economics', but on its human impact. Nor does the case for combating climate change depend on the present discounted value of future costs to GDP. Reclaiming political debate from the grip of economics will make the human side of politics more central, and so can only serve a progressive purpose...

Austerity did not arise because people forgot about its human impact. It arose because politicians, with help from City economists, started scare mongering about the deficit.... Every UK household knew that your income largely dictates what you can spend, and as long as the analogy between that and austerity remained unchallenged, talk about human impact would have little effect.... The only way to beat austerity is to question the economics on which it is based.... Having mainstream economics, and most mainstream economists, on your side in the debate on austerity is surely a big advantage....

Where UE is on stronger ground is where they question the responsibility of economists.... Politicians grabbed hold of the Rogoff and Reinhart argument about a 90% threshold for government debt:

Where was the formal, institutional denunciation of such a glaring error from the economics profession, and of the politicians who used it to justify their regressive policies? Why are R & R still allowed to comment on the matter with even an ounce of credibility? The case for austerity undoubtedly didn't hinge on this research alone, but imagine if a politician cited faulty medical research to approve their policies—would institutions like the BMA not feel a responsibility to condemn it?"

I want to avoid getting bogged down in the specifics of this example, but instead just talk about generalities.... If some professional body started ruling on what the consensus among economists was... [that] would go in completely the opposite direction from what most heterodox economists wish.... There is plenty wrong with mainstream economics, but replacing it with schools of thought is not the progressive endeavor that some believe. It would just give you more idiotic policies like Brexit.


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