Saturday, May 21, 2016

First Week on Budget Special Session Wraps Up [feedly]

First Week on Budget Special Session Wraps Up
http://www.wvpolicy.org/first-week-on-budget-special-session-wraps-up?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=first-week-on-budget-special-session-wraps-up

Today the West Virginia legislature wraps up its first week of work on passing a state budget. The most notable accomplishment was the Senate passage of SB 1005 which would raise the tobacco tax by 45-cents/pack. The bill was read for the first time in the House today.

During the Senate debate on the measure, Senator Ron Miller (D-Greenbrier) tried to amend the bill to increase the tax by an additional 55-cents with the extra revenue to be earmarked to fund a state Earned Income Tax Credit. Watch clip of Senator Miller's floor speech here.

Next week the legislature will continue its work on proposals that were part of Governor Tomblin's special session call. While the state desperately needs additional revenue, the governor's tax increases disproportionately ask more from low-income people than the wealthy. Read Sean's blog post for more information.

The governor's ideas to fill the budget gap total less than the major tax cuts of the past. Beginning in 2007, West Virginia enacted a number of major tax cuts, including phasing out the grocery tax on food and the business franchise tax, reducing the corporate net income tax rate from 9 to 6.5 percent, and making some cuts to the personal income tax. All these cuts, along with a drop in energy prices, have helped blow a huge hole in the state's budget. Here's more in Ted's blog post.

West Virginia Cuts to Higher Education Among Worst in the Country

At a time when most states are restoring funding to higher education that was cut during the Great Recession, a new report shows that West Virginia is going in the opposite direction, with troubling consequences. The result is skyrocketing tuition increases, over 42% since 2008, making college harder and harder to afford, especially for low-income families.

Here's more in today's Charleston Gazette-Mail



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Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 5.20.16 [feedly]

Succinct Summation of Week's Events  5.20.16
http://ritholtz.com/2016/05/succinct-summation-of-weeks-events-5-20-16/

Succinct Summations for the week ending May 20th 2016

Positives:

1. U.S. stocks end their 3-week losing streak;
2. Existing home sales rose 1.7% m/o/m and 6% y/o/y to a 5.450 SAAR
3. CPI rose 0.4% m/o/m, with the core rising 0.2%;
4. Housing starts are 1.172M SAAR, ahead of expectations;
5. Industrial production rose 0.7% after falling 0.6% last month;
6. Housing market index came in at 58 — a solid reading, in line with expectations;

Negatives:

1. Empire state manufacturing survey came in at -9.02,well below expectations, and down from 9.56 previously;
2. MBA mortgage composite index fell 1.6% w/o/w. Purchases fell 6%;
3. Jobless claims are ticking up, albeit very modestly. The 4 week average is up from 268.25k to 275.75k;
4. Philly Fed index fell to -1.8, down from -1.6 previously.

Thanks, Mike!

The post Succinct Summation of Week's Events 5.20.16 appeared first on The Big Picture.


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(A Load of Crap) from the Grumpy Economist

Pogo: "I jes' carn't figur' oot Y the prez would do sech a thang"


Here is an example of why some economists should NOT have been granted a PhD



Friday, May 20, 2016

Overtime

John Cochrane

Like most economists, I was a bit baffled by the Administration's announcement of stricter overtime rules. The WSJ, and Jonathan Hartley and many others cover the obvious consequences on jobs, business formation and destruction, and so forth. A bit less mentioned, it reduces employee flexibility. If you like working more hours one week and less the next -- perhaps you have child or parent care responsibilities -- you're going to be stuck working an 8 hour day.  It's part of the general regulated ossification of American employment. Or, it could be one more inducement to substitute machines for people or make people independent contractors.

Why are they doing it? The government says it wants more jobs, yet there is no area in American life with larger impediments between a willing employer and employee than labor.

I'm trying to bend over backwards to understand a worldview under which this is a sensible idea.

One possibility. Suppose this is your image of work: Take as given that a person has a job, and the employer will keep that job going, and won't change the terms of the job -- lower the base wage, allow people to take overtime, etc. Take as given that the terms of the job are a pure bilateral negotiation, and there is money somewhere to absorb extra costs without raising prices.  Take as given also that the worker is in a bad negotiating position, and you, the benevolent central department of labor, care about moving this negotiation in the worker's way. Then, a rule like this is a way of strengthening the worker's bargaining position and driving some resources the worker's way out of the employer's pocket.

The counterargument is really just that all this "take as given" is false.

Here is an effort to put that debate in econ 101 supply and demand diagrams. Let's think of the rule as a mandated higher wage, like a minimum wage. The classic analysis says you get fewer jobs. 


Now, how might you not lose jobs? The implicit assumption in my paragraph above is that the labor demand curve is vertical. Employers will hire the same number of people for the same hours no matter how much they have to pay. And they'll all stay in business too.

If that were the case, as you see, we wouldn't lose any jobs. There would be some unemployment, as more people want to work or employees want more hours than they can get. But I think advocates of these policies don't mind. Getting people to go out and look for jobs might not be so terrible.


Another way to apply econ 101 is to think of the new rules as new costs imposed on the employer. If employers have to bear more costs, their demand for workers drops down by the amount of the extra costs. Again, adding costs reduces employment. Once again, what are they thinking?


Well, again, suppose that the demand curve is vertical. Now employers simply bear the cost, grumble, but there is no reduction in the number of employees and hours.

Of course, with the assumptions made bare, we can think of lots of reasons that demand curves do slope, employers cut down on workers if they have to pay more direct or indirect costs, and companies don't have infinite funds coming from nowhere. But perhaps by showing implicit assumptions, there is some room for discussion that gets somewhere. I would be interested in hearing serious defenses of the vertical demand curve assumption.


John Case
Harpers Ferry, WV

The Winners and Losers Radio Show
Sign UP HERE to get the Weekly Program Notes.

Explaining the differences between EPI and DOL estimates of workers affected by the new overtime salary threshold [feedly]

We need to find ways to fight for the implementation of this rule: lot of much needed income for workers if it can get in their pockets!

Explaining the differences between EPI and DOL estimates of workers affected by the new overtime salary threshold
http://www.epi.org/blog/explaining-the-differences-between-epi-and-dol-estimates-of-workers-affected-by-the-new-overtime-salary-threshold/

In our report on the new overtime rule, EPI estimates that it will directly benefit 12.5 million workers. At first blush, our evaluation of the impact of the rule differs significantly from the widely circulated Department of Labor (DOL) assessment that 4.2 million workers will directly benefit from raising the salary threshold—meaning they are currently legitimately exempt because of their duties, but will be covered by the new threshold. DOL also notes that 8.9 million workers, meanwhile, will have their rights strengthened by the higher salary threshold, for a total of 13.1 million directly affected by the rule (600,000 more than our estimate). Additionally, of the 8.9 million salaried workers whose overtime rights would be strengthened, DOL notes that about 732,000 regularly work more than 40 hours a week, but are currently incorrectly classified as ineligible for overtime—bringing the total number of workers DOL estimates will be newly eligible for overtime pay up to 5 million.

We believe that many more workers will be newly eligible for overtime pay. Our assessment differs from DOL's because the department assumes, incorrectly in our view, that overtime eligibility was not eroded by changes to the OT rules implemented by the Bush administration in 2004. We provided detailed evidence last year showing that overtime eligibility has been severely eroded since the late 1990s, when DOL computed the exemption probability estimates by occupation that it still relies on today. We concluded that:

…reliance on judgments made in 1998 provides an unreasonably sunny view of today's workplaces that ignores changes in the law implemented in 2004, various court decisions, and the corresponding behavior of employers to limit the ability of workers to obtain overtime pay.

The 4.2 million employees DOL estimates will be newly entitled to overtime pay are limited to those who both meet duties tests establishing that their primary duty is executive, administrative or professional, and earn a salary higher than the old exemption threshold ($23,660 a year) but less than $47,476. For example, an accountant earning $40,000 or a bank branch manager earning $45,000 are legitimately exempt under the current rules but will be entitled to overtime pay because their salary is below the new threshold.

Read more




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Friday, May 20, 2016

Re: Victoria Finkle: The Long Shadow of Robert Rubin

As a comment on my own comment, I was asked why I don't just go ahead and endorse Hillary. If she is nominated, of course, I will. And without reservation. I am, at my age, completely comfortable with accusations of "lesser-evilism" -- and utterly numb to the affection in some left circles for "glorious defeats" or "feet firmly planted in mid-air victories". Those with the luxury to avoid the personal pains and oppressions of the "greater evil" enjoy a privilege most working families do not.

I support Bernie because while I believe well-intentioned, rational bourgeois forces will accommodate a reversal in austerity, and indeed provide invaluable assistance in permitting it to happen with less disruption, I do not believe raising working families incomes will ever float to the top of their TO DO list without massive pressure from below. That's why Sanders -- or better, the millions of votes he represents -- needs to "be at the table".  He is leveraging his campaign to extract the maximum adjustment in the DP to allow the introduction of progressive forces into its leadership at all levels. I am most interested in what is negotiated here.

cheers

John



John Case
Harpers Ferry, WV

The Winners and Losers Radio Show
Sign UP HERE to get the Weekly Program Notes.

On Fri, May 20, 2016 at 4:35 PM, John Case <jcase4218@gmail.com> wrote:
I hear a lot of high-minded chatter among the Left about the "pro-corporate" crimes of the Clintons, despite Bill Clinton's second term being the ONLY time in 2.5 generations that the median working family EVER got a raise worth spit.  Most of these crimes are related to their alliance with Robert Rubin and Larry Summers. 

A healthy part of that one-time-in-45-years "raise" came from the liberalization of Wall Street money that fueled the rapid explosion of the high-tech and Internet revolution. Arguably it also fueled a "bubble", the 2000 recession, and the further, disastrous bubble in mortgage securities that led to the Great Recession of 2007-??

I don't buy the accusation, on several levels. In fact, I agree more with Robert Rubin that Glass Steagall is "irrelevant" than I do with Bernie Sanders -- and I am a Bernie supporter!

First: there has been nothing but bubbles ever since Reagan. The Rubin/Summers/Clinton response to the 91-93 recession of loosening up finance capital AND paying down debt "seemed" to perform a short term miracle. Employment and innovation boomed. Employment boomed. Even wages. In addition, Rubin and Summers et al, unlike some doofuses we all know, are EVIDENCE - BASED policy makers, meaning they learn from mistakes, and adapt well: they were very deft and skillful in defending the US economy against the peso and Argentine and Asian financial crises. 

But the lesson of Piketty is that this bubble phenomenon appears to be endemic to globalized capitalism in this era. Clinton era responses were more RESPONSES to objective developments, rather than directing them. And there is no way to get at the root of the problems unless and until wealth is taxed directly, and globally. Oops -- Summers, Rubin, and Clinton AGREE with most of Piketty's analysis!!

Second: given the restructuring of international capital trends toward ever wider and more diverse financial services throughout the world, going back to Glass Steagall's separation of commercial and investment capital is unlikely. Taxing and redistributing the gains is the only remedy. Altering corporate governance of "too big to fail" corps is also required.

Third: Guess what? Rubin, and most of the "capitalist" allies of the Clintons AGREE with these remedies!!!!

But no -not never-not never will some partner with "a corporate slug". As if they expect some "poof" from the "man behind the curtain" will make 14 TRillion $$ commodity economy just go to bed.

But a progressive agenda that can't leverage liberal capital and divide them from the folks that just need to be taken to the woodshed does not have a prayer in hell. 

Hillary is not Trump. Neither is Robert Rubin, her "worst friend", according to the Left. Indeed, she is close to an incarnation of evidence based policy making.  They call that science. In a world of rapidly shifting ideologies, having leaders committed to seeing if the DATA says what the IDEOLOGUES say is a good thing.

More later on Hillary and friends on trade, and war and peace.
   

The Long Shadow of Robert Rubin


By Victoria Finkle
December 10, 2014

WASHINGTON — Antonio Weiss was just another obscure investment banker up until last month, when his nomination to the Treasury Department stoked a populist fury that speaks to Democrats' past as much as their future.

The 48-year-old Lazard executive now finds himself part of a larger pattern of influence that dates back, critics say, to Robert Rubin — the prominent Wall Street insider and former Treasury Secretary.

The veteran of Citigroup and Goldman Sachs was a key advisor to President Clinton and his protégés have dominated President Obama's economic team, including former Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and current Secretary Jack Lew.

Rubin is seen as the godfather of Democratic economic policy that many progressives blame for the financial crisis and the failure of Obama to crack down on Wall Street in its aftermath.

"It's hard not to see a powerful presence," said Arthur Wilmarth, a professor of law at George Washington University. "If you go back to the Wizard of Oz, it's the man behind the curtain."

In many ways, Weiss is an unlikely stalking horse for Rubin. He doesn't appear to be part of Rubin's inner circle, but because of his investment banking background, critics believe he shares what they characterize as Rubin's world view, one with Wall Street at the center.

"It's not so much Weiss himself; it's what he represents," said Cornelius Hurley, director of the Boston University Center for Finance, Law & Policy.

Many progressives trace the Democratic party's focus on Wall Street back to Rubin.

For liberals like Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., who has led the fight against Weiss, the financial crisis is rooted in the deregulation of the 1980s and 1990s, led in part by Rubin and his colleagues, like Alan Greenspan, the iconic former chairman of the Federal Reserve Board.

"To a lot of people Rubin's an embodiment of the hubris of the era before the crisis," Hurley said.

Clinton administration officials, for example, pushed for the passage of the Gramm-Leach-Blilely Act, which repealed a Depression-era provision separating commercial banking from more risky activities and codified the merger that led to megabank Citigroup.

"Bob Rubin and his administration blessed the universal banking model and embraced it and said, 'make that happen,'" said Wilmarth.

Critics, including Warren, see this as a crucial moment, one that allowed the biggest institutions to become even larger and more complex, eventually forcing the government to bail them out. (Warren has co-authored a bill to undo Gramm-Leach-Bliley and bring back the old Glass-Steagall Act restrictions.)

Adding fuel to the fire, Rubin decamped from Treasury in 1999, shortly after the passage of Gramm-Leach-Bliley, to join Citigroup, which at the time was the principal benefactor from the law. He has become Exhibit A when progressives talk about the "revolving door" between banks and Washington.

In a speech on Tuesday to advocacy groups, Warren cited Rubin by name, noting that three of the last four Treasury secretaries under Democratic presidents, "starting with Robert Rubin," have been affiliated with Citigroup either before or after their service.

"Democratic administrations have filled an enormous number of senior economic policymaking positions with people who have close ties to Wall Street," Warren said.

"In virtually every economic policy discussion held in Washington, the point of view of the Wall Street banks is well represented — so well represented, in fact, that it often crowds out any other point of view. And that's the context for thinking about the nomination of Antonio Weiss."

It's not just about Rubin's past, however. The former Treasury secretary continues to have a significant sphere of influence that extends to the numerous acolytes he's reportedly helped advance, including Geithner, Lew and Lawrence Summers, Rubin's successor as Treasury secretary under Clinton and later head of Obama's National Economic Council.

Other friends in high places include: Jason Furman, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors; Peter Orszag, the former director of the Congressional Budget Office and the Office of Management and Budget; Gene Sperling, the former director of the National Economic Council; Sylvia Mathews Burwell, the former director of OMB who now is secretary of Health and Human Services; Michael Froman, the current U.S. Trade Representative; Stanley Fischer, vice chairman of the Fed; and Lael Brainard, a Fed governor.

(Representatives for Rubin did not return a request seeking comment for this article.)

Above all else, sources close to Warren argue that Rubin and his followers put the interests of financial markets first and downplay the challenges facing the middle class.

Critics argue that Obama is repeatedly tapping Rubin's acolytes, ones who don't listen to progressives or their ideas.

"Can you name any candidate who has been put forward by the Obama administration with progressive support other than Janet Yellen?" said Simon Johnson, a professor of global economics and management at MIT.

Indeed, the frustration with Weiss and Rubin stems in part from the feeling among many that reform advocates don't even have a seat at the table in Democratic administrations.

"I don't think reformers would have had a problem with Weiss if Obama's appointments had included more people who are committed to fundamentally changing the way Wall Street does business," said Sheila Bair, the former chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., who has raised concerns about the Weiss nomination.

"The administration seems willing to defy its progressives on these nominations, but not its Wall Street patrons. The proof is in the pudding. There are many good people in this administration and there have been incremental improvements. But we still basically have the same system we had prior to the crisis."

To be sure, some observers argued that it made sense for Obama to bring in so many Clinton alumni when he assumed office on the cusp of a financial crisis, because the previous experience was valuable.

"When you start an administration, you do value experience and the guys who were in senior positions at the end of the Clinton administration were available and came with a great deal of experience and knowledge on how the place works and how to do policymaking," said Tony Fratto, a partner at Hamilton Place Strategies and a former Treasury official for President George W. Bush.

Others said that using Wall Street experience or ties to Rubin as a substitute for guessing someone's ideology can be misleading. They pointed to Gary Gensler, for example, a former Goldman Sachs executive and Rubin staffer at Treasury, who became one of the most outspoken progressive reformers when he led the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

"It's easy to have a discussion about differing regulatory philosophies, but it's problematic when you use as a proxy the philosophy of their former coworkers or bosses," said another former Treasury official.

It's unclear whether the push to tie Weiss to Rubin and stop his nomination will work, but opposition is clearly gaining steam. Sens. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., and Al Franken, D-Minn., became the latest Democrat to announce their opposition to Weiss on Wednesday, following Warren, Sens. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Richard Durbin, D-Ill.

The Independent Community Bankers Association has also weighed in, arguing Weiss is too tied to the big banks.

More than 100,000 progressive voters have signed onto a petition opposing Weiss, launched by activist group CREDO.

"Warren's got a playbook and the plays are working," quipped one financial services executive.

The stakes for the more populist wing of the party extend beyond the final two years of a lame duck Democratic White House — it sends a message to potential players in the 2016 presidential elections, including Hillary Clinton, who is widely expected to run. Reform advocates want her to know that relying on the Rubin crowd will start an intra-party battle, observers said.

"The congressional gatekeepers are trying to keep them out," said Edward Mills, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets. "Elizabeth Warren has an outsized influence on the rank-and-file Democratic base, and she is a force to be reckoned with, as it relates to making sure any national Democrat is not too cozy to folks she would be opposed to."

— Rob Blackwell contributed to this article

John Case
Harpers Ferry, WV

The Winners and Losers Radio Show
Sign UP HERE to get the Weekly Program Notes.

Victoria Finkle: The Long Shadow of Robert Rubin

I hear a lot of high-minded chatter among the Left about the "pro-corporate" crimes of the Clintons, despite Bill Clinton's second term being the ONLY time in 2.5 generations that the median working family EVER got a raise worth spit.  Most of these crimes are related to their alliance with Robert Rubin and Larry Summers. 

A healthy part of that one-time-in-45-years "raise" came from the liberalization of Wall Street money that fueled the rapid explosion of the high-tech and Internet revolution. Arguably it also fueled a "bubble", the 2000 recession, and the further, disastrous bubble in mortgage securities that led to the Great Recession of 2007-??

I don't buy the accusation, on several levels. In fact, I agree more with Robert Rubin that Glass Steagall is "irrelevant" than I do with Bernie Sanders -- and I am a Bernie supporter!

First: there has been nothing but bubbles ever since Reagan. The Rubin/Summers/Clinton response to the 91-93 recession of loosening up finance capital AND paying down debt "seemed" to perform a short term miracle. Employment and innovation boomed. Employment boomed. Even wages. In addition, Rubin and Summers et al, unlike some doofuses we all know, are EVIDENCE - BASED policy makers, meaning they learn from mistakes, and adapt well: they were very deft and skillful in defending the US economy against the peso and Argentine and Asian financial crises. 

But the lesson of Piketty is that this bubble phenomenon appears to be endemic to globalized capitalism in this era. Clinton era responses were more RESPONSES to objective developments, rather than directing them. And there is no way to get at the root of the problems unless and until wealth is taxed directly, and globally. Oops -- Summers, Rubin, and Clinton AGREE with most of Piketty's analysis!!

Second: given the restructuring of international capital trends toward ever wider and more diverse financial services throughout the world, going back to Glass Steagall's separation of commercial and investment capital is unlikely. Taxing and redistributing the gains is the only remedy. Altering corporate governance of "too big to fail" corps is also required.

Third: Guess what? Rubin, and most of the "capitalist" allies of the Clintons AGREE with these remedies!!!!

But no -not never-not never will some partner with "a corporate slug". As if they expect some "poof" from the "man behind the curtain" will make 14 TRillion $$ commodity economy just go to bed.

But a progressive agenda that can't leverage liberal capital and divide them from the folks that just need to be taken to the woodshed does not have a prayer in hell. 

Hillary is not Trump. Neither is Robert Rubin, her "worst friend", according to the Left. Indeed, she is close to an incarnation of evidence based policy making.  They call that science. In a world of rapidly shifting ideologies, having leaders committed to seeing if the DATA says what the IDEOLOGUES say is a good thing.

More later on Hillary and friends on trade, and war and peace.
   

The Long Shadow of Robert Rubin


By Victoria Finkle
December 10, 2014

WASHINGTON — Antonio Weiss was just another obscure investment banker up until last month, when his nomination to the Treasury Department stoked a populist fury that speaks to Democrats' past as much as their future.

The 48-year-old Lazard executive now finds himself part of a larger pattern of influence that dates back, critics say, to Robert Rubin — the prominent Wall Street insider and former Treasury Secretary.

The veteran of Citigroup and Goldman Sachs was a key advisor to President Clinton and his protégés have dominated President Obama's economic team, including former Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and current Secretary Jack Lew.

Rubin is seen as the godfather of Democratic economic policy that many progressives blame for the financial crisis and the failure of Obama to crack down on Wall Street in its aftermath.

"It's hard not to see a powerful presence," said Arthur Wilmarth, a professor of law at George Washington University. "If you go back to the Wizard of Oz, it's the man behind the curtain."

In many ways, Weiss is an unlikely stalking horse for Rubin. He doesn't appear to be part of Rubin's inner circle, but because of his investment banking background, critics believe he shares what they characterize as Rubin's world view, one with Wall Street at the center.

"It's not so much Weiss himself; it's what he represents," said Cornelius Hurley, director of the Boston University Center for Finance, Law & Policy.

Many progressives trace the Democratic party's focus on Wall Street back to Rubin.

For liberals like Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., who has led the fight against Weiss, the financial crisis is rooted in the deregulation of the 1980s and 1990s, led in part by Rubin and his colleagues, like Alan Greenspan, the iconic former chairman of the Federal Reserve Board.

"To a lot of people Rubin's an embodiment of the hubris of the era before the crisis," Hurley said.

Clinton administration officials, for example, pushed for the passage of the Gramm-Leach-Blilely Act, which repealed a Depression-era provision separating commercial banking from more risky activities and codified the merger that led to megabank Citigroup.

"Bob Rubin and his administration blessed the universal banking model and embraced it and said, 'make that happen,'" said Wilmarth.

Critics, including Warren, see this as a crucial moment, one that allowed the biggest institutions to become even larger and more complex, eventually forcing the government to bail them out. (Warren has co-authored a bill to undo Gramm-Leach-Bliley and bring back the old Glass-Steagall Act restrictions.)

Adding fuel to the fire, Rubin decamped from Treasury in 1999, shortly after the passage of Gramm-Leach-Bliley, to join Citigroup, which at the time was the principal benefactor from the law. He has become Exhibit A when progressives talk about the "revolving door" between banks and Washington.

In a speech on Tuesday to advocacy groups, Warren cited Rubin by name, noting that three of the last four Treasury secretaries under Democratic presidents, "starting with Robert Rubin," have been affiliated with Citigroup either before or after their service.

"Democratic administrations have filled an enormous number of senior economic policymaking positions with people who have close ties to Wall Street," Warren said.

"In virtually every economic policy discussion held in Washington, the point of view of the Wall Street banks is well represented — so well represented, in fact, that it often crowds out any other point of view. And that's the context for thinking about the nomination of Antonio Weiss."

It's not just about Rubin's past, however. The former Treasury secretary continues to have a significant sphere of influence that extends to the numerous acolytes he's reportedly helped advance, including Geithner, Lew and Lawrence Summers, Rubin's successor as Treasury secretary under Clinton and later head of Obama's National Economic Council.

Other friends in high places include: Jason Furman, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors; Peter Orszag, the former director of the Congressional Budget Office and the Office of Management and Budget; Gene Sperling, the former director of the National Economic Council; Sylvia Mathews Burwell, the former director of OMB who now is secretary of Health and Human Services; Michael Froman, the current U.S. Trade Representative; Stanley Fischer, vice chairman of the Fed; and Lael Brainard, a Fed governor.

(Representatives for Rubin did not return a request seeking comment for this article.)

Above all else, sources close to Warren argue that Rubin and his followers put the interests of financial markets first and downplay the challenges facing the middle class.

Critics argue that Obama is repeatedly tapping Rubin's acolytes, ones who don't listen to progressives or their ideas.

"Can you name any candidate who has been put forward by the Obama administration with progressive support other than Janet Yellen?" said Simon Johnson, a professor of global economics and management at MIT.

Indeed, the frustration with Weiss and Rubin stems in part from the feeling among many that reform advocates don't even have a seat at the table in Democratic administrations.

"I don't think reformers would have had a problem with Weiss if Obama's appointments had included more people who are committed to fundamentally changing the way Wall Street does business," said Sheila Bair, the former chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., who has raised concerns about the Weiss nomination.

"The administration seems willing to defy its progressives on these nominations, but not its Wall Street patrons. The proof is in the pudding. There are many good people in this administration and there have been incremental improvements. But we still basically have the same system we had prior to the crisis."

To be sure, some observers argued that it made sense for Obama to bring in so many Clinton alumni when he assumed office on the cusp of a financial crisis, because the previous experience was valuable.

"When you start an administration, you do value experience and the guys who were in senior positions at the end of the Clinton administration were available and came with a great deal of experience and knowledge on how the place works and how to do policymaking," said Tony Fratto, a partner at Hamilton Place Strategies and a former Treasury official for President George W. Bush.

Others said that using Wall Street experience or ties to Rubin as a substitute for guessing someone's ideology can be misleading. They pointed to Gary Gensler, for example, a former Goldman Sachs executive and Rubin staffer at Treasury, who became one of the most outspoken progressive reformers when he led the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

"It's easy to have a discussion about differing regulatory philosophies, but it's problematic when you use as a proxy the philosophy of their former coworkers or bosses," said another former Treasury official.

It's unclear whether the push to tie Weiss to Rubin and stop his nomination will work, but opposition is clearly gaining steam. Sens. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., and Al Franken, D-Minn., became the latest Democrat to announce their opposition to Weiss on Wednesday, following Warren, Sens. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Richard Durbin, D-Ill.

The Independent Community Bankers Association has also weighed in, arguing Weiss is too tied to the big banks.

More than 100,000 progressive voters have signed onto a petition opposing Weiss, launched by activist group CREDO.

"Warren's got a playbook and the plays are working," quipped one financial services executive.

The stakes for the more populist wing of the party extend beyond the final two years of a lame duck Democratic White House — it sends a message to potential players in the 2016 presidential elections, including Hillary Clinton, who is widely expected to run. Reform advocates want her to know that relying on the Rubin crowd will start an intra-party battle, observers said.

"The congressional gatekeepers are trying to keep them out," said Edward Mills, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets. "Elizabeth Warren has an outsized influence on the rank-and-file Democratic base, and she is a force to be reckoned with, as it relates to making sure any national Democrat is not too cozy to folks she would be opposed to."

— Rob Blackwell contributed to this article

John Case
Harpers Ferry, WV

The Winners and Losers Radio Show
Sign UP HERE to get the Weekly Program Notes.

Ryan cooper: Why Bernie Sanders is the most successful socialist in American history

AP Photo/Alan Diaz
May 20, 2016
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Long before Bernie Sanders, there was Eugene Debs. He was a longtime socialist and union organizer, and five-time candidate for president. At his electoral high tide in 1912, he got nearly 6 percent of the presidential vote, by far the best any socialist has ever done in national politics. That is, until now.

Bernie Sanders, though he does not subscribe to the more traditional socialist views of Debs, still calls himself a socialist, and got within spitting distance of capturing the nomination of one of America's two parties. That is beyond question the electoral high water mark for an American socialist — at least for now. Why?

As people are continually rediscovering, Sanders gets most of his support from young people, across race and gender. Indeed, though a spectacular volume of punditry has focused on Sanders' lack of support among African-Americans, a recent Gallup survey found that black millennials (defined as being from age 20 to 36) give Sanders higher marks than whites or Latinos, at 67 percent approval. Hillary Clinton is not so popular, particularly among whites:

(Courtesy Gallup)

Sally Kohn suggests the following explanation for this discrepancy:

[W]hen you see progressive white men — many of whom enthusiastically supported Barack Obama's candidacy — hate Clinton with every fiber of their being despite the fact that she's a carbon copy of Obama's ideology (or in fact now running slightly to his left), it's hard to find any other explanation than sexism. [Time]

Sexism probably has something to do with the fact that Clinton's approval rating among male millennials is 13 points lower that it is among female ones (though it's still fairly striking that the likely first female president has only 45 percent approval among millennial women).

However, policy is also a huge reason.

I am right about in the middle of the millennial age group, and I was a strong Obama supporter in the 2008 primary. I distrusted Clinton back then for the same reason I do today: her long record of belligerent foreign policy views. It is simply false to say that Clinton is running as a slightly more left-wing version of Obama. She's fairly close on domestic policy, but has always been a firm advocate of military intervention, and panders to Israel and AIPAC to a ridiculous degree.

But the political context of this primary is also poles apart from 2008. Back then, a huge amount of attention centered on foreign policy. (Without Clinton's support of the Iraq War, she would undoubtedly be president today.) The growing economic crisis did get much notice, especially when the true financial crisis hit during the general election. But progressives — who had spent the 2000s fighting George W. Bush on Iraq, Katrina, tax cuts, corruption, and a hundred other things — did not have a fully developed economic vision at the time. It simply did not sink in fast enough that America was about to experience the worst economic crisis in 80 years — one that would expose the rot in the U.S. economy.

By and large, progressives trusted that the new president would sort things out. But instead, despite the fact that Democrats held huge majorities in both houses of Congress, the crisis was half-fixed at best. The economystaggered ahead in a quasi-depression for most of Obama's presidency, only gaining a bit of real steam in the last couple years. Republican victory in the 2010 midterms meant biting austerity and the loss of millions of government jobs.

In the meantime, left-wing critics developed a powerful case that the problems ran far, far deeper than Democrats failing to pass a large enough stimulus. Median wages had been stagnant for decades. The financial system had turned into a giant parasite. Unions were all but dead, especially in the private sector. Inequality, at spectacular highs before the crisis, continued to increase under Obama, with the top 1 percentvacuuming up virtually all income growth. For many college grads and dropouts, student debt had become a crippling burden.

The crummy American welfare state also came in for sharp leftist criticism. Unlike peer nations in Europe, America has no paid parental leave, no child allowance, and no paid vacation on the federal level. Its retirement programs are either insufficient or a colossal failure, and its unemploymentand disability benefits are threadbare. Bill Clinton's welfare reform wasconclusively proved to be a nightmarish disaster that increased extreme poverty by 150 percent. Even ObamaCare, while it is a big improvement on the status quo, has not remotely achieved universal health care coverage.

Obama himself was a sharp disappointment in many ways, from his failure to deal with the foreclosure crisis, to his perpetuation of much of the Bush security apparatus — particularly dragnet surveillance, as the Snowden revelations made clear.

In the 70s and 80s, the fading embers of the New Deal made these critiques seem weird or unnecessary, as did the red-hot economy of the late 90s. But today, it is obvious that America basically fails many of its citizens, and young people have been getting their faces ground into it for their entire political lives. That, I submit, is the basic reason that Bernie Sanders has done so well.

He's not perfect, but he is the only one with a platform that is remotely on the same scale as the problems Americans face.

John Case
Harpers Ferry, WV

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