Monday, February 19, 2018

Rodrik: more on ideas vs interests

Dani Rodrik's weblog

Unconventional thoughts on economic development and globalization

My Photo

SEARCH THE BLOG

« Has Global Finance Reformed Itself More Than It Appears?Main

JANUARY 19, 2018

More on distinguishing ideas and interests -- an exchange with Peter Hall

My recent post on ideas versus interests elicited some comments from Peter Hall, my Harvard colleague who has done probably more thinking on this issue than any other scholar I know. With his permission, I am attaching these comments below, along with the brief subsequent exchange we have had.

________________________________

Dani,

A few quick thoughts inspired by your recent blog post on ideas and interests.  As you know, this is a topic that has long interested me.  These are rather cryptic thoughts (ars longa, vitae brevis) but I pass them along in case they are stimulating.

You are, of course, right to observe that interests are always interpreted (by ideas), i.e. they do not arise unambiguously from the material world.  And I think you are on the right track when you contrast the 'ex ante' account from interests with an ideas account of outcomes. 

But one might put even more emphasis (than I gather you do?) on the implication, which is that people always act based on both their ideas and their interests.  That is to say it is impossible to have perceptions of interest without ideas (and it is those perceptions of interest rather than the interests in themselves that motivate actors). 

Thus, claims that people are acting on their 'interest' are, in effect, claims that they are acting in line with some conventional set of ideas about what those interests are.  The classic example would be analyses that attribute to actors a set of interests that a conventional understanding of neoclassical economics would ascribe to anyone in their socioeconomic position.  The implicit claim of such analyses must be that those actors understand their position in that way, i.e. in line with these conventional ideas.

On my reading, this is what you mean when you associate interest-based arguments with a 'parsimonious' account of the attributes of the actors.  I do wonder whether parsimonious is the correct characteristic to highlight here (ie thinness vs thickness) since the ideas that underpin such action can be rather 'thick' (in the sense of depending on a relatively elaborate worldview).  The more important point, I think, is that these actors operate out of a worldview that can readily be seen as 'conventional' (in the sense of that term that it is widely-accepted as orthodox).

Now, there may be small sets of actors who in certain circumstances act against their 'interests' in the sense that they realize, by virtue of the ideas they hold, that they will lose something they value (material goods, power, etc.) by so acting.  And those actors might do that as a result of holding (other) sets of ideas, eg. of the sort associated with some sort of 'altruism'.  Soldiers who sacrifice themselves in battle might fall into that category.  However, I suspect that this is a very small category of people and, in many instances, as your argument intuits, such people could be said to have an unconventional view of their interest which dictates their action.

To continue then with the main account, if my view is correct, it becomes interesting to inquire about the role of ideas when there is (some kind of) contestation about precisely what is in the interest of the actors.  In your terms, these are cases in which ideas become salient to action And it turns out that is a relatively-common occurrence.  Thus, ideas often have influence over action, and the key problem is to explain (make claims about) why some ideas become influential in specific contexts while others do not.

With regard to that problem, it must surely be the case that a specific set of ideas (relative to other ideas) are more likely to become influential when they bear directly on the interests of the actors (understood as gains/losses of power or goods that the actor values).  Actors usually gravitate toward ideas that seem to them to serve their interests, understood in this stripped-down fashion. This is why interests and ideas typically bear together on action. 

What sorts of implications follow from this?

  • The Germans are probably not acting out of 'interest' independently of ideas. They are influenced by (Hayekian) ideas that tell them that their current posture is in the national interest as they construe it.  And, if we want to think of the latter as some sort of stripped-down 'material' interest, we have to bear in mind, first, that this conception of material interest is itself underpinned by an explicit set of ideas and, second, that there are other ways to interpret national interest and even material national interest.  For instance, policies that provoke a second Euro crisis might not ultimately be in that interest.  In other words, your initial point that all 'interests' must be interpreted by 'ideas' means that we cannot claim that interests trump ideas in instances such as this.
  • Although ideas are, on this view, important in all cases, we can detect, as you argue, instances that are distinctive by virtue of something about the prominence of the role that ideas play in them, such as the case of the Reagan tax cut. The issue is: what is distinctive about such instances?  I would argue it is not that ideas are somehow more important than interests in such instances.  After all, making the tax cuts was very much in the political interest of the Reagan administration.  What is distinctive is that there was contestation, with significant numbers of partisans on each side, about how to interpret (in this case) the economic interests of the populace.  It is the presence of contestation, rather than the importance of ideas, that distinguishes this case.
  • My bottom line is that the analytical way forward is not to ask: 'can we distinguish cases in which ideas were more important or influential from cases in which they were not?' but rather to ask: 'how might we best distinguish between situations in which ideas play a somewhat different role in the interaction between interests and ideas that underpins all action?'.

Don't hold me to this.  These are difficult issues and I find my views on them changing over time.  But I hope this is stimulating.

Peter

____________________________

Dear Peter

Thank you very much for this. It is incredibly helpful, and I agree with much of it.

I am all for pursuing the agenda you set out at the very end – tracing out the different ways in which ideas affect interests and their interaction with prevailing ideational environment. But I would like to resist the formulation where interests are always subservient to ideas, which this approach presumes. There is a sense in which this is true, and you put it very well yourself in your note. A statement of the form, "the industry pursued its interest" must have some meaning, even though at the end of the day what we really mean to say is "the industry pursued its interest, as it perceived its interest to be."

We are often concerned with explaining changes. Why did an actor change its behavior? There is substantive difference, it seems to me, between two sort of explanations:

  • an explanation that relies on behavior in the context of an unchanged understanding of what the actor's interests are. The actor's utility function and its understanding of how the world works stay the same, but there are changes in the world it confronts. For example, the constraints it faces are altered.
  • An explanation that relies on a change in the actor's understanding of what its interests are. The actor's utility function changes or its understanding of how the world works is altered.

The distinction I would like to make is that case (a) is what many realists have in mind in IR or rational choice political economists tend to focus on. And I think it is OK to call these cases interest-driven cases.

Case (b) would fall in my ideational category.

Just like you, I am not sure about any of this. But we should try to figure out a way of thinking these issues more.

Best

Dani

______________________________

Dani,

What you say makes excellent sense.  Focusing on cases of change is very promising.  And the distinction you draw between (a) and (b) a compelling one.  I agree that ideas do not trump interests.  The latter are just as important to be sure.

Of course, some of the most interesting cases are ones with features of both (a) and (b), i.e. constraints/opportunities in the world change and (partly by virtue of that) there is consideration, albeit not always adoption, of new ideas.  But the distinction strikes me as an excellent starting point.

Peter

 

 

 

Posted at 11:32 AM | Permalink

COMMENTS

WimNusselder

Aren't you focussing far too much on (explaining) behaviour of individual actors and failing to take into account that collective behaviour is complex (i.e. results from interactions between too many -agency imbued- actors to be analysable in that way) in which causality is not necessarily more important than intentionality, narrratives and competing discourses and in which path dependence makes analysis of behaviour being categorically caused by either x or y or both futile?
Agreeing on behaviour being driven by interests and/or ideas primarily implies agreement on a language and a perspective, that will subsequently performatively create social reality in its likeness.
If economists convince people that they act in accordance with ideas (and when they have a positive image of themselves: ideals) society will improve.
If economists convince people that they act in accordance with interests (and that serving one's own interest is only natural) society will deteriorate.
Let us please take our responsibility as economists to improve society!
Please see my "Economics as meant" presentation of a year ago in Leuven: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/economics-meant-normative-discipline-wim-nusselder/

Posted by: WimNusselder | January 20, 2018 at 06:48 AM

Peter Dorman

I confess I'm at something of a loss in understanding the intensity of this exchange. It seems as though the two of you are both striving for an account framed in terms of "ideas" and "interests" as unitary terms, but surely there are very important distinctions we would want to make.

First, let's distinguish between ideas about what is in our interest from other ideas about what is right, advisable or entailed apart from our personal interest. If I believe it is in my personal interest to cheat you financially, we wouldn't want to conflate my idea about this interest with my idea about the rightness or advisability of carrying out the action, would we?

Second, the theory of ideology directs us to distinctions among ideas along a spectrum (or even multiple dimensions) of interest-impactedness. Even when people are acting, or claim to be acting, according to ideas other than those of their personal interests, they may be doing so indirectly to the extent they are attracted to these noble notions due to their interestedness. This is a complex, tangled topic, so I won't go further except to put in a reminder that the theory of ideology is about belief, not truth value. (Contemporary standpoint theory is utterly muddled about this.)

What about Germany? German political figures, pundits, the majority of the Council of Economic Experts, etc. generally justify their economic policies on the basis of ideas of the general good, not just what's good for Germany. In that sense, they pass the first filter: their ostensible motivating ideas are not narrowly ideas of their own national self-interest. The important question is whether they pass the second: to what extent is the current embrace of ordoliberalism reflective of the national interest of Germany given its reliance on current account surpluses and its position in the Eurozone? That's an important question, ultimately one that has to be explored empirically.

My own hypothesis, for what it's worth, is that structurally surplus countries generally display ideological predispositions for economic theories that stress saving and fiscal restraint. That's part of what it means to be a structurally surplus country.

Posted by: Peter Dorman | January 23, 2018 at 04:20 PM

POST A COMMENT

Fwd: Update


---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "AFT-West Virginia via ActionNetwork.org" <info@aftwv.org>
Date: Feb 19, 2018 4:02 PM
Subject: Update
To: <jcase4218@gmail.com>
Cc:

John,

Despite our best efforts to negotiate in good faith with leadership in the House and Senate and the Governor's office, we have not been able to make the progress needed to avoid further action. Therefore, AFT-West Virginia, WVEA and WVSSPA have called for statewide action on Thursday, February 22 and Friday, February 23.

Latest developments:

·       After today's meeting between State Superintendent Steve Paine and all county superintendents, the decision to close school on Thursday and Friday remains in the hands of each county superintendent.

·       Many locals are coordinating with area churches and community centers to set up child care centers to assist working parents.

·       Local presidents are scheduling building rep. or general membership meetings before the walk out dates to ensure clear communication of updates.

·       Many locals have already started coordinating with local food pantries to assist children who rely on school meals.

On the days of the walkout, please coordinate people to come to the Capitol, hold informational pickets locally and volunteer for community child care and food distribution. Even if schools are closed, it will be important to have continued informational pickets in our home communities.

Please check email, text and AFT-WV's social media pages frequently during this time, as developments can unfold rapidly.




Action Network
Sent via Action Network, a free online toolset anyone can use to organize. Click here to sign up and get started building an email list and creating online actions today.
Action Network is an open platform that empowers individuals and groups to organize for progressive causes. We encourage responsible activism, and do not support using the platform to take unlawful or other improper action. We do not control or endorse the conduct of users and make no representations of any kind about them.
You can unsubscribe or update your email address or change your name and address by changing your subscription preferences here.


Recovery Radio:Recovery Rado: Suicide is Not ann Answer

John Case has sent you a link to a blog:



Blog: Recovery Radio
Post: Recovery Rado: Suicide is Not ann Answer
Link: http://recovery.enlightenradio.org/2018/02/recovery-rado-suicide-is-not-ann-answer.html

--
Powered by Blogger
https://www.blogger.com/

Notes on the Russia-Trump thing -- it's about OIL.



John Case, Socialist Economics.

Special Counsel Robert Mueller's indictment charges a Russian enterprise,  The Internet Research Agency, and 13 of its employees, with unlawful interference in the US 2016 presidential election. Beginning in mid-2014, the indictment says the agency launched a disinformation campaign , mainly through Facebook, designed to smear and divide Hillary Clinton's presidential candidacy, and elect Trump.

At its peak in the 6 months prior to the election, the indicted Russian agency spent $1.2 million per month on its efforts. . According the celebrated, but not entirely error free FiveThirtyEight statistical blog of Nate Silver, "The Clinton campaign and Clinton-backing super PACs spent a combined $1.2 billion over the course of the campaign. The Trump campaign and pro-Trump super PACs spent $617 million overall. "

The not insignificant, but still relatively small Russian spending, does not really alter the fact that Clinton's losing campaign outspent the combined Russia and Trump campaigns by almost double. Statistically its very hard to blame Russia for Clinton's loss. That is partly due to the difficulty of measuring the impact of non-discrete events like Facebook Bot activity. The Comey last minute "email sever smear", which exposed nothing but the right wing influence of parts of the FBI, shows a stronger, but still not decisive, statistical impact than Russian interference. Other statistical factors of note, although none are by themselves decisive, include a lower African American turnout, a lax campaign effort in key midwestern states like Michigan and Wisconsin, and the Jill Stein vote.  Further, both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton had very, very low favorability ratings: Trump - 38, Clinton - 43. In terms of headcount, i.e., paid staffers, Clinton had 4200, Trump - 880, Russia -- 'hundreds'.

The bottom line is: there is no high-confidence statistical answer to the question, did Russia give the election to Trump? Nor is there a high-confidence statistical answer to the overall question of why Clinton lost the election. The electoral college imbalance between the rural and urban franchise obviously was important, since Clinton DID win the popular vote. But the electoral college is a fixed entity, not subject to significant influence or modification in the 2016 election.

The other question the statistics do not satisfactorily, answer is: Why is Russia aligning with Trump?  I am not going to delve in to personal or character analysis of Putin, but instead follow Washington's advisory that nations, regardless of the personal inclinations of their leaders, will tend to follow NATIONAL interests, not 'friends'. In that framework, both recent history and economics suggest powerful motivations.

Much of the Trump campaign war chest is disguised by the treasonous curtain on billionaires provided by Citizens United. However the largest donors super PACs are dominated by recognizable hedge fund, energy, real estate. military and right wing entertainment interests (like Murdoch (Fox) and Disney.). The strongest connection to Russia is energy -- in particular natural gas and crude oil production and refining. These are by far Russia's largest exports and its greatest source of cash. Obama and Secretary Clinton's assistance in overthrowing Ukraine's corrupt, but nonetheless elected, government with former fascist elements sparked Russia's antagonism to an intense level. It was not an isolated incident. US policy toward Russia since the collapse of the USSR has persisted many Cold War efforts to destabilize, dismember and undermine the former Warsaw Pact nations, very often using ultra-right cliques and military-compromised 'friends' as proxies.

Not accidentally, the major natural gas and crude oil pipelines from Russia to Europe flowed through Ukraine, where, led by anti-Russian forces, and backed by NATO, it could put Russia's economy at serious risk. The political economy of Russia's largest exporters make the geopolitics of Putin and Exxon Oil nearly, though hardly completely, convergent. According to studies by Chevron, typical crude oil development projects require hundreds of millions of dollars and can take 50 years to deliver a commensurate return. The ten current biggest onshore projects—out of a total of 126 such developments worldwide—are expected to consume $83.1 billion of investment to bring them to production, Oilfield Technology reports, quoting figures by GlobalData. In terms of single project development investment, the Kuyumbinskoye conventional oil development in Russia is the leader, with $12.8 billion expected to be spent over the field's lifetime. Offshore investments are even bigger -- reaching into the billions.

These are sticky investments -- very costly to withdraw from once engaged. Consider the Shell disaster in the gulf: if the penalties are too steep, Shell cuts production and the price of gas takes a steep bite out of US consumers. If the winds of "climate change" reforms blow too strong, those $100 million dollar investment failures become existential threats to the corporation.

Yet here we are. Thesis: Driven primarily by energy companies, their billionaire owners and allies, an all out and well-funded assault (ALEC, Kochs poltroons of billionaire scum) on democracy has been organized on many fronts. Trump is the carnival barker for the assault, not even a Bavarian corporal, portraying it as a reality TV show. Trump's endless gaslighting and misdirections are designed solely to divide the public by any means necessary, especially race, and neutralize united democratic resistance to unchallengeable rule by 'Exxon and Friends'. The scale of inequalities in the US makes this ghastly effort not so difficult. Everyone has grievances, and the wrong enemies are conjured up for every group.

The significance of Russian convergence with Exxon has an additional dimension and lesson. State control, or outright nationalization, of energy interests does NOT guarantee against a comparable anti-democratic capture of the machinery of government and politics by a single, or very narrow, group of resource based interests. The curse of natural resources has ruined progress and democracy for most of the states and nations so 'blessed'. West Virginia is a perfect example. Public dependence on a primary or single resource can also easily result in whatever clique has the most guns or money seizing all the levers of power. 

There is no remedy to this crisis that does not include mandating that too big to fail companies can no longer be run on exclusively profit-maximization incentives. Structural changes in corporate governance reflecting vital public and employee interests in these enterprises MUST be the consequence of any democratic renewal,, even if instituting them will require temporary public takeover of enough to enforce compliance. Failure to reform  these giant corporate prerogatives will only ensure repeated fascist assaults. Remember -- to the biggest corporations escaping democratic constraints and their 'public obligations' is existential -- non-negotiable. Just as the defeat of their prerogatives is existential for the people, and progress. 

Renewal and must also include the complete defeat, indeed repression and re-education, of fascist, authoritarian trends which have seized the US government. There is no time to waste. These forces are steadily consolidating power. The mid-terms in 2018 may be the last opportunity to stop that consolidation. Taking back one house of Congress can derail the Trump train. Wait too long, and there might not be another election. In the latter instance, the ultimate outcomes will be decided by non-civil means..








--
John Case
Harpers Ferry, WV

The Winners and Losers Radio Show
7-9 AM Weekdays, The Enlighten Radio Player Stream, 
Sign UP HERE to get the Weekly Program Notes.

When the impartial spectator is missing [feedly]

When the impartial spectator is missing
http://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com/stumbling_and_mumbling/2018/02/when-the-impartial-spectator-is-missing.html

Is good behaviour more fragile than generally supposed? For me, this is the question posed by the unpleasant controversy sparked by Mary Beard's tweet:

I do wonder how hard it must be to sustain "civilised" values in a disaster zone. 

One interpretation of this seems to me plain wrong – that it is an attempt to justify the wrongdoing at Oxfam.

Another interpretation is that there's an undertow of racism here. Even in quote marks, that word "civilized" echoes imperialist talk of white men "going native" – of "white aid workers as Mr Kurtz figures caving in the strain of 'The horror, the horror'" in Priyamvada Gopal's words.

But I wonder, might there be another reading of that tweet? We could read it as meaning that decent behaviour – civilized behaviour if you must – is not hardwired into us, and that many of us have darker tendencies

One reason for this, as I said recently, lies in a mix of ego-depletion and self-licensing. We cannot maintain full self-control for long under stress: we have to let off steam. And a belief that one is a good person doing good gives one a self-licence to behave badly. If you've just saved a few lives, you can convince yourself that it's OK to see a young prostitute, just as colonialists justified greed and brutality to themselves in the belief they were bringing Christianity to ignorant people, for example. Self-serving biases are powerful things.

But there's something else.

It lies in Adam Smith's idea of the impartial spectator. What keeps us behaving well is the suspicion that there is someone watching us. When we play outside as children, we might think we are only with other kids. But often we're watched by family friends or neighbours, so our parents learn of our misbehaviour. That keeps us honest. As D.D. Raphael writes in his exposition of Smith:

The approval and disapproval of oneself that we call conscience is an effect of judgments made by spectators. Each of us judges others as a spectator. Each of us finds spectators judging him. We then come to judge our own conduct by imagining whether an impartial spectator would approve or disapprove of it (The Impartial Spectator p 34-5)

When this impartial spectator is fully internalized it becomes God or conscience. But it isn't always so internalized. When it isn't, it is the fear of actual real spectators that keeps us well-behaved. There's always the danger that our spouses or bosses will hear of our misdeeds.

When we go overseas, however, we leave the most influential spectators behind, which lessens the constraint upon us. The only observers we have are foreigners who are, at best, less likely to report us to our employers or partners*.

The result of this is that there is a massive tradition of white men behaving badly outside their own countries, from imperialist brutalities to war crimes. We see faint echoes of this today. Men who go on business trips often behave worse than at home; West Brom footballers are more likely to steal cabs in Barcelona than Birmingham; there's a reason why stag parties go to Amsterdam or Prague rather than the fiancee's house; and what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. As Paul says, "rampant power to abuse was part of the 'expat' tradition, even folklore, alongside its hard-drinking culture."** Heart of Darknessand Lord of the Flies both speak to this tradition.

In other words, what we call "civilization" is not some property of individuals. It is, instead, emergent; it arises from social pressures upon us and might evaporate when those pressures are absent, depending upon how much the impartial spectator is internalized.

Which brings me to a paradox. Although Professor Beard's tweet has been interpreted as having an undertow of racism (perhaps rightly if inadvertently) it might also bear a very different interpretation - that white men are not as "civilized" as they pretend. And there's a lot of history to support such a view.

* There is, of course, often a baser motive for discounting their opinion, which is that the opinion of people who aren't like us counts for less – which is one reason why we should be so wary of "othering" other people.

** It shouldn't need saying, but I fear it does: I'm not claiming any moral equivalence between these examples but merely suggesting that a similar mechanism is at work.



 -- via my feedly newsfeed

African American history Programming -- Coltrane Unlimited, and historic speeches

Playing 24/7 through March 5

Coltrane Unlimited

WEB Dubois -- The Souls of Black Folks

Richard Wright

Amiri Baraka

Langston Hughes

Angela Davis

Rev William Barber

Malcolm X

Dr Martin Luther King

Dick Gregory
Barack and Michelle Obama

Here is our player

 Also: Mondays at Noon: Storytelling with Fanny

Thursdays at 5 PM: Redpath with Keir Knoll

 MORE TO COME

Want to start an Internet Radio Program -- contact me: host@enlightenradio.org

West Virginia GDP -- a Streamlit Version

  A survey of West Virginia GDP by industrial sectors for 2022, with commentary This is content on the main page.