Tuesday, February 6, 2018

Global Markets Sink, Suggesting Stock Rout Will Go On



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Global Markets Sink, Suggesting Stock Rout Will Go On // NYT > Business
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/06/business/dealbook/stock-market.html

Shares in Japan, Hong Kong and other Asian markets plunge after a sharp drop in the U.S., as futures markets signal another tough day ahead.
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Saturday, February 3, 2018

Job Growth Slows Modestly, But Black Unemployment Falls to Record Low



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Job Growth Slows Modestly, But Black Unemployment Falls to Record Low // Economist's View
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2018/01/job-growth-slows-modestly-but-black-unemployment-falls-to-record-low.html

Dean Baker:

Job Growth Slows Modestly, But Black Unemployment Falls to Record Low: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported slightly weaker than expected job growth in December, with the economy adding 148,000 jobs. There was a modest downward revision to the data for the prior two months, which brought the three-month average to 204,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1 percent for the third consecutive month.

The best news in this report was the drop in the unemployment rate for blacks to 6.8 percent, the lowest since these data were first collected in 1972. The previous low was 7.0 percent in April of 2000. This is consistent with the view that a low unemployment rate disproportionately benefits the most disadvantaged groups. The black unemployment rate averages close to twice the white unemployment rate. This ratio has been reduced somewhat as the labor market tightened. The unemployment rate for whites in December was 3.7 percent.

Healthy job growth has continued to pull more prime-age workers (ages 25 to 54) into the labor market with the employment-to-population ratio (EPOP) edging up to 79.1 percent. This is a new high for the recovery, but it is still more than a full percentage point below its pre-recession level and 2.8 percentage points below the peak high in 2000.

It is worth noting that the EPOPs of varying demographic groups have not followed a predictable pattern since 2000. In the last recovery, women in the 25-to-34 age group showed the sharpest falloff in EPOPs. At present, they are one of the groups closest to recovering their 2000 EPOP. While men in the 25 to 34 grouping now show the sharpest falloff in EPOPs among prime-age workers, their EPOPs pretty much moved with the EPOPs for other prime-age workers in the last recovery. This suggests caution in assuming that changes in these EPOPs are due to supply-side issues as opposed to the strength of the labor market.
In this respect, it is worth noting that less-educated workers continue to be the biggest gainers from the continuing expansion. The EPOP for workers with just a high school degree has risen by 0.6 percentage points over the last year. For workers without a high school degree it has risen by 0.5 percentage points. By contrast, for workers with a college degree it is unchanged.

Other news in the household survey was mixed. All the duration measures of unemployment fell, with the average and median duration hitting new lows for the recovery, albeit still slightly higher than pre-recession levels. On the other hand, the percent of unemployment due to voluntary quits edged down to 10.9 percent. By comparison, it was over 13.7 percent in 2000.

On the payroll side, a disproportionate share of the job growth occurred in the goods-producing sector with construction adding 30,000 jobs and manufacturing adding 25,000 jobs. Employment in the mining and logging sector overall was unchanged, although coal mining lost jobs for the third consecutive month.

Health care added 31,400 jobs and restaurants added 25,100 jobs, both in line with their averages over the last year. The professional and technical services lost 4,700 jobs, the first decline in more than two years. This was driven by a loss of 15,400 jobs in accounting, a decline that is sure to be reversed as a result of the new tax law. The big loser was retail, which lost 20,300 jobs. Employment in the sector is down by 66,500 over the last year or 0.4 percent.

The most troublesome item in this report is the continued weakness of wages. The average hourly wage rose 2.5 percent over the last year, but this may actually be slowing. The annual rate for the last three months compared with the prior three months has been just 1.7 percent.

The weakest wage growth has been in manufacturing, where wages have risen by just 1.6 percent over the last year, and mining and logging, where the increase has been just 0.3 percent. This is consistent with production shifting from higher-paying union sites to lower paying non-union sites. Wages in retail have risen by a weak 2.1 percent, while in accommodation and food services they have risen by 3.6 percent, likely reflecting the impact of higher minimum wages.

On the whole, this is a positive report, but it certainly indicates no basis for concern about the labor market overheating.


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Year one of the Trump administration: Normalizing itself by working for the top 1 percent



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Year one of the Trump administration: Normalizing itself by working for the top 1 percent // Blog | Economic Policy Institute
http://www.epi.org/blog/year-one-of-the-trump-administration/

Tomorrow, President Trump is set to deliver his first State of the Union speech, in which he will likely provide a triumphalist account of the economic policy changes made during the first year of his presidency. But despite big talk on the campaign trail about how he would stand up for the forgotten working man (for Trump, it was always men who were left behind), the first year of the Trump presidency has been no triumph for typical American workers. Instead the big winners over the past year have been the already rich.

This really shouldn't come as a surprise. Trump's was crystal clear in his inaugural address about who he considers the cause of American workers' disempowerment: foreigners. This diagnosis is stunning not just in how wrong and bigoted it is, but how cynically it attempts to distract from the privileged group that really was reaping gains that should have been broadly shared—the top 1 percent and their enablers. His agenda of continuing the upward redistribution of income to this top 1 percent while scapegoating immigrants and allegedly nefarious foreign governments is essentially the orthodoxy among the Republican Congressional majority, and it will do nothing to help America's workers.

The cynicism is clearest when considering the signature piece of legislation signed by Trump, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). The TCJA provides a number of temporary tax cuts to households, most of which will accrue to those at the top of the income distribution. But it saves its permanent tax cuts for the nation's corporations, whose profits eventually flow overwhelmingly to the richest households in America. By 2027, when the household tax cuts have expired but the corporate tax cuts remain, the top 1 percent will see 83 percent of the gains from the TCJA. Corporations have been so giddy about the windfall they've reaped from the TCJA that they've mounted an absurdly transparent public relations campaign on its behalf, claiming that every bonus and wage increase they have bestowed since its passage was somehow the result of it—even those that occurred before the TCJA actually took effect. This is, needless to say, not how economics argues that tax cuts can potentially boost wages. It's also important to note that in any given year about half of all workers see raises, and nearly 40 percent receive bonuses. In short, it is extremely likely that not a single worker who wasn't a high-placed CEO or corporate manager has seen a raise because of the TCJA. And if they got a bonus this year because of the TCJA, it was a likely a one-time attempt by their employer to sneak in a deductible expense before the tax cuts made these deductions less profitable, and no future TCJA-linked bonuses will be seen again.

Meanwhile, although the composition of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors generates a lot less heat than debates over the TCJA, Trump's first two picks for new Fed governors—Randal Quarles and Marvin Goodfriend—are likely to do great damage to American workers. Both of these new governors have been fierce critics of Fed actions since the Great Recession that consistently pushed the economy more quickly towards recovery. Goodfriend, in particular, was notably wrong in his predictions. With the unemployment rate still at 7 percent in 2012, he argued that the Fed should have stopped trying to support further recovery because its efforts would fail to reduce unemployment any more, and would instead have just sparked out-of-control inflation. Since then, the unemployment rate has dropped 3 percentage points—allowing about 4.5 million workers to find jobs—and inflation is still below, not above, the Fed's stated target of 2 percent. Both Quarles and Goodfriend have also consistently argued that the regulatory safeguards put in place after the financial crisis of 2008 should be rolled back. Giving up on American workers with the unemployment rate still at 7 percent while wringing their hands over regulations that might restrict possibilities for Wall Street profit-making doesn't sound much like "standing up for the forgotten." Worse, the Trump administration has three more vacancies on the Fed Board of Governors left to fill. This is in part because while he was elevating friends of Wall Street in the Fed, President Trump also broke with a long precedent and failed to re-appoint the incumbent Fed Chair, Janet Yellen. Economic observers and economists are nearly united in their view that Yellen is easily the most-qualified person ever to have held the job of Fed Chair, and that her performance in that role was exemplary. Failing to re-appoint Yellen was simply a triumph of sexism and partisanship over merit.

Protecting Wall Street is a common theme in the first year of the Trump presidency. Besides his Fed picks, Trump has also installed Mick Mulvaney as the head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). Mulvaney is a long-time enemy of the CFPB, and has already rolled back regulations protecting borrowers from the worst abuses of payday lenders. As a congressman from South Carolina, Mulvaney ranked ninth among all his peers in how much money he raised from the payday lending industry. Their investment has paid off well. Besides the regulatory rollbacks, Mulvaney also released a memo to CFPB staff informing them that the Bureau exists to "serve" these and other financial institutions.

The attack on regulations that bolster the economic security of working Americans is another common theme in the first year of the Trump presidency. His administration has, for example, delayed key provisions of the fiduciary rule and signaled its intention to weaken it further. While "fiduciary rule" sounds wonkish, it's not. It's a rule that simply states that financial advisors are not allowed to cheat their clients by doing things like steering their money into vehicles that provide low rates of return to the clients but high fees to the advisors. It is the rock-bottom lowest standard that one could imagine for an industry that exists to help working Americans manage their financial decisions. Conflicted advice that steered money to financial vehicles that generated high fees for advisors rather than high returns for savers costs Americans about $17 billion each year. This is $17 billion transferred directly from working Americans to Wall Street firms. The fiduciary rule was designed to stop this transfer, but the Trump administration is working hard to make sure it continues.

Aside from the fiduciary rule, the Trump administration has also made clear its intention to undermine the improved threshold defining who is automatically entitled to overtime pay. Before 2016, only workers earning less than $23,660 a year were automatically eligible for overtime protections based on their pay. The Obama administration increased this threshold to roughly $47,500—a moderate level, given that if it had simply been adjusted for inflation over the past 40 years, it would be well over $50,000. The Trump administration argues that this is too high, and if they have their way millions of workers will lose the right to be paid anything for hours they work in excess of 40 per week.

A particularly recent regulatory attack on workers is the "tip stealing" rule, another rollback of an Obama-era regulation. In 2011, the Obama administration issued a rule that codified the long-standing DOL practice of safeguarding tips as the property of workers, not employers. The Trump administration has proposed a rule that would rescind portions of those regulations and allow restaurant owners to confiscate tips. The administration often claims that this rule would simply allow owners to pool tips and cut in back-of-the-house workers. But the rule as written explicitly allows owners to simply keep the money and not distribute it to employees. We estimate that as a result of the rule, $5.8 billion would be transferred from workers to employers, with nearly 80 percent of that—$4.6 billion— taken from women who are working in tipped jobs.

Further, by nominating Neil Gorsuch—who has a record of ruling against workers and siding with corporate interests— to the Supreme Court, Trump has stacked the Court against workers. Trump has also nominated Cheryl Stanton to serve as the administrator of the Wage and Hour Division at DOL and Rob Emanuel and Peter Robb to serve as member and general counsel of the NLRB, respectively. All three of these nominations to fill important posts at agencies that are supposed to protect workers' rights fall squarely in the "fox guarding the henhouse" category, as all have spent their careers representing employers, not workers.

Besides changing federal regulations, the Trump administration has also opened up room for states to change rules governing Medicaid eligibility. Specifically, they have changed rules to allow states to introduce work requirements for Medicaid recipients. It is hard to overstate how cruel and stupid this policy change would be. For one, the vast majority of non-elderly, non-disabled adults on Medicaid already live in households with a worker. For another, those non-elderly, non-disabled adult son Medicaid that don't work often don't because they are caring for a child or an elderly relative or going to school. Further, Medicaid eligibility is already restricted by an income test—those on Medicaid have very low incomes and clearly face large obstacles to finding steady work. These obstacles will balloon the next time there is a recession, and a work-requirement will end up simply punishing some of the most vulnerable families in America because of the business cycle. Finally, there are numerous well-documented advantages to large public insurance programs. Medicare and Medicaid, for example, have done a far better job than private-sector health insurance companies in restraining cost-growth, even for commonly-defined benefits. The long-run push in American health reform should be to enroll more, not fewer, people in these large public plans, as the most promising strategy for containing costs without simply denying care to people.

Finally, the most salient issue right now in American politics is the fate of the DREAMers—undocumented immigrants who were brought to the United States by their parents as children and who have lived their lives here and become as American as anybody else in the country. (They are called DREAMers after the DREAM Act—or, the Development, Relief, and Education for Alien Minors Act—which was proposed to provide them residency status followed by a (quite long) path to citizenship). There was once broad public agreement that the DREAMers should be protected and allowed to continue living in the United States permanently, eventually as full-fledged citizens. But because the congressional Republican majority is terrified of the loud and bigoted minority of voters who are opposed to helping the DREAMers, in 2012 the Obama administration started the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) policy, which allowed DREAMers to be free of worry about forced removal from the United States, go to college, and obtain 2-year renewable work permits. The DACA status quo inherited by the Trump administration was far from optimal, but it at least protected DREAMers who met DACA's requirements—and kept us from becoming a country that would round up nearly a million people who had done nothing wrong and knew no other country, destroying their lives by exiling them to nations that were completely foreign to them. Months ago, the Trump administration tore up this status quo for no reason except to cater to their bigoted base voters. They now are seeking to use the manufactured crisis of ending DACA to leverage draconian changes to overall immigration policy in exchange for cleaning up the mess they made. The most recent immigration demands of the Trump administration in exchange for providing security to DREAMers are: clamping down on family re-unification immigration, ramping up arrests and deportations by Immigration and Customs Enforcement officials, further militarizing the border, and, crucially, providing no path to legalization for the more than 9 million unauthorized immigrants who aren't DREAMers. These demands would provide no relief to American workers hoping for better jobs and wage growth; indeed, the smart move to boost wages with immigration policy is to bring unauthorized immigrants out of the shadows and into legal status and citizenship so that they enjoy the full protections of employment law. If these workers could no longer be easily exploited, their wages would rise and put less intense downward pressure on the wages of U.S. workers. Instead, the Trump immigration demands are about indulging the bigotry and xenophobia of their base.

The first year of the Trump presidency has been a steady stream of attacks on the economic security of anybody who relies on work rather than wealth as a source of income. Recent weeks have seen much talk about the "normalization" of Trump, with many pointing out that the Trump economic agenda is actually not out-of-step at all with the preferences of more mainstream conservative Republican policymakers like House Speaker Paul Ryan. This does not make it any better. Instead it highlights how united the Republican majority in Congress is around the Trump agenda, and points out the need for an alternative that tries to restore economic leverage, bargaining power, and security to America's low- and middle-income families. The only silver lining of the Trump presidency is that his unique unlikability has made more Americans pay attention to policy debates. And when Americans pay attention, it turns out they really don't like the conservative Republican agenda.


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Stocks Fall to End a Bad Week, and a Boom Begins to Look Shaky

Wages pick up even a trickle, and the billionaires get a tummy ache

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Stocks Fall to End a Bad Week, and a Boom Begins to Look Shaky // NYT > Business
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/02/business/stock-market-interest-rates.html

U.S. stocks have ended their worst week since February 2016, as investors worried about rising interest rates after a long market boom.
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Friday, February 2, 2018

Enlighten Radio Podcasts:The Moose Turd Cafe -- The Reckless Republican Train Kills Another

John Case has sent you a link to a blog:



Blog: Enlighten Radio Podcasts
Post: The Moose Turd Cafe -- The Reckless Republican Train Kills Another
Link: http://podcasts.enlightenradio.org/2018/02/the-moose-turd-cafe-reckless-republican.html

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Privatization Won’t Fix Puerto Rico’s Broken Power Utility [feedly]

Privatization Won't Fix Puerto Rico's Broken Power Utility
http://cepr.net/publications/op-eds-columns/privatization-won-t-fix-puerto-rico-s-broken-power-utility

Privatization Won't Fix Puerto Rico's Broken Power Utility

Lara Merling 
NACLA, February 1, 2018

See article on original site

Puerto Rico recently announced they will privatize its power utility. Past experience shows that fixing the broken electrical system won't be so simple.

Hurricane Maria wreaked havoc in Puerto Rico, severely damaging infrastructure, knocking out power across nearly the entire island, and limiting access to basic necessities. Almost six months after the storm, there is little indication that the island is on a path to recovery. Restoring power has been particularly slow, with about 30 percent of customers still left in the dark.  The extensive damage caused by the storm—along with the slowpace of restoring electricity, and scandals surrounding the process—have highlighted the struggles and dysfunction of Puerto Rico's Electric Power Authority (PREPA). In the aftermath of this tragedy, a narrative that fits the pattern of what Naomi Klein refers to as the "shock doctrine" hardened: government mismanagement was to blame for the state of the state-owned utility, and the only solution was privatization.

The push to privatize the PREPA is not new; governments have advocated it for decades. Earlier this month, the electrical workers' union argued that the agency was intentionally set up for failure, precisely so that it could be privatized. Just a few months prior to the hurricane, four of the seven members of the island's undemocratic Financial Oversight and Management Board (FOMB)— created by the US Congress in 2016 to control Puerto Rico's finances and  tackle its long-term fiscal issues—authored an editorial that called for PREPA's privatization. Prior to the storm, these calls failed to gain sufficient traction.

After the storm, as scandals and infighting between agencies snarled efforts to restore power, residents' frustration grew—and backers of privatization seized the opportunity to push their agenda. When the governor announced his plan to privatize PREPA, promising that this would bring lower rates and better service, he met little resistance.

The fiscal plan the governor recently submitted to the Financial Oversight and Management Board, as mandated by the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management, and Economic Stability Act (PROMESA), does not question whether privatizing PREPA is necessary. Rather, it presents it as the only viable option. The plan claims that by privatizing the embattled utility, it will "transform" it into an efficient, reliable, and cost-effective energy provider. The proposed privatization process consists of a mix between selling assets, and offering concessions to private companies to run operations over the following 18 months.

Claims that privatization will create a quick fix to Puerto Rico's economic and electrical woes are based on optimistic assumptions not backed by evidence. In fact, Puerto Rico's own past experience is proof that privatization is no panacea for defective public utilities. Puerto Rico's Aqueduct and Sewer Authority (PRASA) has twice privatized the management of water services, as detailed in a report by Puerto Rico's Comptroller's Office. Both attempts had disastrous results.

In the 1990s, as Puerto Rico's water services struggled with quality and operational issues and PRASA's finances deteriorated, then-governor Pedro Rosselló (current governor Ricardo Rosselló's father) declared a state of emergency that cleared the way to seek a private water operator. The senior Rosselló then created a commission to negotiate a contract and oversee the privatization process. In 1995, in circumstances somewhat similar to those surrounding PREPA today, PRASA took its first step toward privatization when it entered into its first concession contract with a subsidiary of the French multinational Veolia.

After Veolia took over PRASA's responsibilities, its problems multiplied. Service quality deteriorated and prices for consumers increased, as did the agency's operational deficit. To make matters worse, Veolia was not complying with environmental regulations. The Environmental Protection Agency found that raw sewage was discharged into water sources, prompting fines and sanctions. PRASA was ill-equipped to oversee and enforce its contract with Veolia. For years, it complied with Veolia's requests for increased payments, despite the questionable quality of the company's services and its numerous violations. Puerto Rico's contract with Veolia ended in 2001 and was not renewed.

Despite the worsening infrastructure, environmental violations, and a large operational deficit that Veolia left behind, rather than retake public control over PRASA, Puerto Rican authorities took another route. They blamed the failed venture with Veolia on the specifics of that contract, not the inherent flaws in trying to fix a system in disrepair via privatization. Problems could simply be fixed through a better-negotiated deal, they said. Thus, the search for a different utility operator started, and the government sought to negotiate a contract that would finally address PRASA's issues. Officials bragged about the "complex negotiations" they led in order to select a contractor that would "bring operations to world-class standards."

In 2002, PRASA entered into a 10-year, $4 billion contract with Ondeo, a subsidiary of French multinational Suez. At the time, it was the largest contract to ever be awarded to a private water company. Ondeo assumed full responsibility for maintenance and repairs of existing assets, while also promising investments to improve infrastructure and assure compliance with environmental standards. This contract was praised at the time for also including clauses to assure compliance with its stated goals, and for bringing huge expected savings to the government.

In practice, things between PRASA and Ondeo worked out differently. Less than two years later, after numerous disputes and disagreements with Ondeo, PRASA paid the company a settlement to rescind the contract. Ondeo had repeatedly requested more money than allowed by the initial agreement with PRASA, and had also failed to update the system's infrastructure.

After the contract with Ondeo was terminated on terms unfavorable to PRASA, the agency retook control over the management of water services. This meant that a decade and hundreds of millions of dollars later, PRASA was in even worse shape than during the crisis that prompted privatization efforts. Both its infrastructure and its finances deteriorated further during this period.

In these cases, the contracts awarded by PRASA were lucrative for the private companies, but not for Puerto Rico's government or its consumers. The companies cashed in, but not only failed to make the new investments and improvements they initially promised, but also failed to manage basic aspects of the water system, such as properly maintaining existing infrastructure.

Arguments in favor of privatization generally emphasize the perceived increased efficiency in the private sector's ability to manage services due to profit incentives. But in the case of running a utility that is a monopoly, this dynamic does not necessarily translate into better service or savings for consumers. Rather, these case studies from Veolia and Ondeo demonstrate that a company can reduce services while raising prices. Puerto Rico's case is not unique, but rather part of a larger global pattern of utility privatizations that have failed to deliver on their promises.  

Somehow, this disastrous experience seems to have been quickly forgotten by the ardent proponents of privatizing PREPA. The governor has offered reassurance that the privatization process would take place under the close oversight of the agency in charge of regulating the utility, the Puerto Rico Energy Commission (PREC). Yet, the official plan for PREPA recently released by the government criticizes PREC, and recommends that a "reasonable regulatory process," not PREC, be created for the future private owners. Handing over a public utility to the private sector while simultaneously calling for less regulation is concerning at best.

The common narrative blames PREPA's operational struggles on mismanagement and corruption, and suggests that these problems can be addressed by simply privatizing the company. However, this view omits the overall context of Puerto Rico's economic decline and shrinking population. In response to a shrinking tax base, Puerto Rico's public sector borrowed massively to cover its expenses. Puerto Rico's public sector accumulated about $72 billion in debt, out of which $9 billion are bonds issued by PREPA. As the island's fiscal balance worsened in the last few years, efforts to reduceexpenses meant that the island skimped on basic maintenance of its infrastructure. When the storm hit, Puerto Rico was already particularly vulnerable. 

There is no doubt that PREPA is in dire need of reform, yet privatizing the utility is not guaranteed to actually solve any of its problems. Particularly given its poor infrastructure and massive debt burden, PREPA's privatization might require concessions that would be unfavorable in the long term. As Puerto Rico's past experiences have shown, savings promised by private operators do not always materialize. The priority now should be an overhaul of PREPA that establishes a strong and accountable regulator to oversee the process of rebuilding a more efficient and resilient electric grid to serve the people of Puerto Rico.


Lara Merling is a researcher at the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, DC.



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West Virginia GDP -- a Streamlit Version

  A survey of West Virginia GDP by industrial sectors for 2022, with commentary This is content on the main page.