Harpers Ferry, WV
Wednesday, November 9, 2016
I was wrong. But about what?
Harpers Ferry, WV
EPIC Radio Podcasts:New Podcasts from EPIC Radio - Day after Trump
Blog: EPIC Radio Podcasts
Post: New Podcasts from EPIC Radio - Day after Trump
Link: http://podcasts.enlightenradio.org/2016/11/new-podcasts-from-epic-radio-day-after.html
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Tuesday, November 8, 2016
Eastern Panhandle Independent Community (EPIC) Radio:Poetry Monday, Storytelling on EPIC Radio
Blog: Eastern Panhandle Independent Community (EPIC) Radio
Post: Poetry Monday, Storytelling on EPIC Radio
Link: http://www.enlightenradio.org/2016/11/poetry-monday-storytelling-on-epic-radio.html
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Monday, November 7, 2016
Links for 10-11-16 [feedly]
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Links for 10-11-16
// Economist's View
Economics Nobel 2016: Oliver Hart and Bengt Holmstrom - Cheap Talk Nobel Prize 2016 Part I: Bengt Holmstrom - A Fine Theorem Oliver Hart and Bengt Holmström: Contract Theory - NobelPrize.org Oliver Hart, Nobel Laureate - - Marginal Revolution Bengt Holmström, Nobel Laureate - Marginal Revolution The Performance Pay Nobel - Marginal Revolution An Economics Nobel for Examining Reality - Noah Smith The Power of Convictions - ProMarket China's SDR Distraction - Barry EichengreenThe case for an active fiscal policy - VoxEU Transformation of the US fiscal system in the 1930s - VoxEU Macro Musings Podcast: Claudio Borio - David Beckworth Machine Learning vs. Econometrics, II - No Hesitations A land built by economists? - The Enlightened Economist Clinton versus Trump on Financial Regulation - Cecchetti & Schoenholtz Why I'm relatively relaxed about robots - Bank Underground
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Strong across-the-board wage growth in 2015 for both bottom 90 percent and top 1.0 percent [feedly]
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Strong across-the-board wage growth in 2015 for both bottom 90 percent and top 1.0 percent
// Economic Policy Institute Blog
Annual inflation-adjusted earnings of the top 1.0 percent of wage earners grew 2.9 percent in 2015, and the top 0.1 percent's earnings grew 3.4 percent, according to our analysis of the latest Social Security Administration wage data. What is relatively unique about 2015 was that the 3.4 percent wage growth for the bottom 90 percent matched that of the top 0.1 percent. This strong wage growth for the bottom 90 percent reflects both the lull in inflation (up just 0.1 percent) and the failure of wage inequality to continue its growth in 2015. Annual wages of the bottom 90 percent now stand 3.5 percent above what they were pre-recession in 2007, with all of that growth essentially occurring in 2015. The top 1.0 percent's earnings have surpassed their previous high point, attained in 2007, by a mere 0.2 percent, recovering from the steep 15.6 percent fall during the financial crisis from 2007–09. High earners between the 90th and 99.9th percentile have seen the strongest growth since 2007, with earnings rising 7.7 percent. It's only the earnings of the top 0.1 percent that remain below 2007 levels (down 5.1 percent).
Wage inequality has grown tremendously over the longer-term period from 1979 through 2015. The annual earnings of the top 1.0 percent rose 156.7 percent from 1979 to 2015 while the very top 0.1 percent enjoyed earnings growth of 338.8 percent. In contrast, the bottom 90 percent of wage earners had annual earnings grow by just 16.7 percent over the 1979–2007 period and an additional 3.5 percent between 2007 and 2015 for a cumulative annual earnings growth of 20.7 percent over the thirty-six years from 1979 to 2015.
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The TPP is a back door for dumped and subsidized imports from China; it would enhance, not limit, China’s influence in the region [feedly]
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The TPP is a back door for dumped and subsidized imports from China; it would enhance, not limit, China's influence in the region
// Economic Policy Institute Blog
President Obama has built his closing case for the Trans-Pacific Partnership on a political argument, saying "…we can't let countries like China write the rules of the global economy. We should write those rules." But it is both arrogant and wrong to think that the United States has the power to shape the rules governing China's relationship to TPP signatories. As of today, China has already established deeper trade ties than the United States with the TPP nations. Further, congressional approval of the TPP would actually lock in those advantages for China. China has a large trade surplus with the TPP countries, and crucial terms of the agreement (specifically weak rules of origin (ROO) requirements, which we'll talk about in detail below) would provide a back-door guarantee for China and other non-TPP members to duty-free access to U.S. and other TPP markets. This would be especially significant for autos and auto parts, as well as other key products. TPP exporters are not going to turn away from their suppliers in China just because they signed a trade deal with the United States.
The United States has a massive trade deficit with China that has taken on added significance in the light of the proposed TPP agreement between the United States and 11 other Pacific Rim countries. While China is not party to the TPP, it is a major force behind a larger East Asian co-production system that uses unfair trade (dumping, subsidies, excess capacity, export restrictions, and more), coupled with currency manipulation and misalignment, to make U.S. goods more costly and thus less competitive in China, the TPP and in other markets.
The United States also had a large trade deficit with the TPP countries in 2015 that cost 2 million U.S. jobs. Flawed trade and investment deals, such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), plus the currency manipulation and unfair trade by some TPP members account for many of those lost jobs (note that Mexico and Canada are TPP countries). In addition, analysis developed here demonstrates that a substantial share of these TPP job losses can be directly linked to trade between China and the other members of the TPP. Specifically, most of the TPP countries run large trade deficits with China while running large, offsetting trade surpluses with the United States. Thus, it appears that at least some TPP producers are buying parts and components from China and re-exporting them in the form of finished goods to the United States.
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October Employment Report: 161,000 Jobs, 4.9% Unemployment Rate [feedly]
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October Employment Report: 161,000 Jobs, 4.9% Unemployment Rate
// Calculated Risk
From the BLS:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 161,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, professional and business services, and financial activities.
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The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised up from +167,000 to +176,000, and the change for September was revised up from +156,000 to +191,000. With these revisions, employment gains in August and September combined were 44,000 more than previously reported.
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In October, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 10 cents to $25.92, following an 8-cent increase in September. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.8 percent.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.
The first graph shows the monthly change in payroll jobs, ex-Census (meaning the impact of the decennial Census temporary hires and layoffs is removed - mostly in 2010 - to show the underlying payroll changes).
Total payrolls increased by 161 thousand in October (private payrolls increased 142 thousand).
Payrolls for August and September were revised up by a combined 44 thousand.
This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.
In October, the year-over-year change was 2.36 million jobs. A solid gain.
The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.
The Labor Force Participation Rate decreased in September to 62.8%. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. A large portion of the recent decline in the participation rate is due to demographics.
The Employment-Population ratio decreased to 59.7% (black line).
I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.
The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.
The unemployment rate decreased in October to 4.9%.
This was slightly below expectations of 170,000 jobs, however job growth for August and September were revised up - and there was solid wage growth. A solid report.
I'll have much more later ...
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West Virginia GDP -- a Streamlit Version
A survey of West Virginia GDP by industrial sectors for 2022, with commentary This is content on the main page.
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John Case has sent you a link to a blog: Blog: Eastern Panhandle Independent Community (EPIC) Radio Post: Are You Crazy? Reall...
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via Bloomberg -- excerpted from "Balance of Power" email from David Westin. Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the late...
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