Fwd: The American Health Care Act by the numbers

EPI News—Our most important stories this week What millions of Americans could lose under the AHCA In a new Economic Snapshot, EPI's Josh Bivens outlines the economic impacts millions of Americans will face if the Affordable Care Act is repealed and replaced with the American Health Care Act (AHCA). Bivens finds that the AHCA would increase out-of-pocket expenses for American families by $33 billion each year by 2026—in addition to 23 million Americans losing health coverage. Furthermore, the AHCA could slow job growth nationally by 1.1 million jobs in 2020 due to Americans spending more on health care and having less disposable income to spend on other goods.  Read the Economic Snapshot » Share this Economic Snapshot: The impact of the American Health Care Act. Share Tweet Tweet this graphic Share this graphic on Facebook Unpaid congressional internships: Bad for students, bad for policy Summer has officially arrived in the nation's capital, and with it an influx of summer interns who will work in congressional offices—for no pay. In a new article, EPI's Celine McNicholas finds that at least three-quarters of all House offices employ unpaid interns. At the most basic level, McNicholas writes, unpaid internships undermine the central premise of our nation's labor and employment law—that everyone has a right to be paid for their work. But the lack of paid internships also limits the opportunities of young people whose families cannot afford to finance such an opportunity, ultimately contributing to the institutionalization of socioeconomic disparities. Working people deserve schedules that work On Tuesday, Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) introduced the Schedules That Work Act, which is designed to give hourly workers more certainty about their work schedules. For millions of hourly workers, a predictable, stable work schedule is rare—leading to unstable earnings and making it difficult for workers to take care of their families. EPI research associate Lonnie Golden explains the significance of the bill, which requires that employees receive sufficient advance notice of schedules and have the right to request schedule changes. EPI's Janelle Jones writes that low-wage workers in particular would benefit from this legislation. From the EPI blog Unpaid congressional internships: bad for students, bad for policy By Celine McNicholas Rescheduling—now is a good time for its reintroduction! By Lonnie Golden Working people deserve schedules that work By Janelle Jones Apprenticeship Weak: Trump proposal fails to tap into apprenticeship's potential By Stephen Herzenberg In virtually unprecedented move, Trump Solicitor General switches sides in Murphy Oil case By Celine McNicholas Policy Watch: Trump and Congress diligently work to strip working people of hard-fought rights By Celine McNicholas EPI in the news In the wake of Amazon's acquisition of Whole Foods, The Washington Post spoke with EPI's Elise Gould about concerns that cashier jobs will be replaced with automation. From the article: "Elise Gould, a labor economist at the Economic Policy Institute in Washington, D.C., said cashier jobs represent an important part of the economy. They're spread out across the country and employ workers of diverse backgrounds and ages. 'These are jobs that can help support a family,' Gould said." | People Are Worried Amazon Will Replace Whole Foods Workers with Robots » The New York Times reviewed The Color of Law, by EPI research associate Richard Rothstein, calling it "a powerful and disturbing history" of government-sponsored segregation in America. | A Powerful, Disturbing History of Residential Segregation in America » Think Progress interviewed EPI's Rob Scott for his analysis of Trump's approach to trade policy in light of his bold campaign promises. From the article: "Scott sees the Trump administration as 'tinkering at margins with small problems' and ignoring the bigger picture . . .'[Trump's trade policy agenda is] not by any means sufficient to deal with our manufacturing and trade unemployment crisis,' said Scott." | Trump's Trade Rhetoric Was Key to His Campaign. Now It's Totally Incoherent. » The Huffington Post spoke with EPI's Celine McNicholas about the acting solicitor general's decision to reverse the government's position in the Supreme Court case National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) v. Murphy Oil USA, Inc.—now siding with corporate interests in an important workers' rights case. McNicholas commented that "the decision to switch sides is a real departure from the standard practice . . . It's incredibly troubling that an administration that ran [a campaign] on leveling the playing field and giving workers rights is going to literally stand with employers and corporate interests." | Trump Administration Sides with Employers over Workers on Arbitration Agreements » Share this newsletter: EPI News—The American Health Care Act by the numbers Share Tweet Forward Donate to EPI Facebook Twitter epi.org View this email in your browser | Unsubscribe from this list

Enlighten Radio Podcasts:Resistance Radio — West Virginia Rising against Trumpcare -- June 21

John Case has sent you a link to a blog:



Blog: Enlighten Radio Podcasts
Post: Resistance Radio — West Virginia Rising against Trumpcare -- June 21
Link: http://podcasts.enlightenradio.org/2017/06/resistance-radio-west-virginia-rising.html

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Enlighten Radio Podcasts:Stewart Acuff’s Resistance Radio — with grass roots activists from the eastern panhandle of West Virginia

John Case has sent you a link to a blog:



Blog: Enlighten Radio Podcasts
Post: Stewart Acuff’s Resistance Radio — with grass roots activists from the eastern panhandle of West Virginia
Link: http://podcasts.enlightenradio.org/2017/06/stewart-acuffs-resistance-radio-with.html

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Links for 05-25-17

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Links for 05-25-17 // Economist's View
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2017/05/links-for-05-25-17.html

Why Work Requirement Became a Theme of the Trump Budget - NYTimes Equitable Growth in Conversation: Sandra Black - John SchmittDemocracy and the politics of intolerance - Understanding Society A Note on Coursera CEO Rick Levin's Clark Kerr Lecture... - Brad DeLong American Prosperity Depends on a Nonwhite Future - Noah Smith How Trade with China Boosts Productivity – IMF Blog The State of Global Financial Integration - Tim TaylorThe book that uncovered 'wealthfare' - Gerald Scorse Dealer Balance Sheets and Corporate Bond Liquidity Provision - Liberty Street Jumpstarting the Market for Accessory Dwelling Units - The Berkeley Blog The Poor Man's Son Parable - Adam Smith's Lost Legacy Regulating Short-term Rentals - Regulatory Review Some Saudi-US History - EconoSpeak Does Whistleblowing Work? - ProMarket
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Trump’s “China Deal” is Only a Good Deal for China

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Trump's "China Deal" is Only a Good Deal for China // Economist's View
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2017/05/trumps-china-deal-is-only-a-good-deal-for-china.html

Larry Summers:

Trump's "China deal" is only a good deal for China: The events of the last week have crowded out reflection on economic policy.  But things have been happening. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross described the trade deal reached with China earlier this month as "pretty much a herculean accomplishment….This is more than has been done in the history of U.S.-China relations on trade."

Past a certain point, exaggeration and hype become dishonesty and deception. In economic policy, as in almost everything else, the Trump Administration is way past that point.

The trade deal is a "nothing burger" that a serious Administration committed to helping American workers would likely not have accepted, and surely would not have hyped. ... [gives details of the agreement] ...

Now it is true that a ludicrously hyped squib of a deal is much better than a trade war. So perhaps we should be pleased that the President and his commerce secretary are so easily manipulated. Perhaps our officials know how bad a deal they got and are just hyping for political reasons.

It is an irony of our times that those who most frequently denounce "fake news" seem to most frequently purvey it.


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New Home Sales increase to 610,000 Annual Rate in May

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New Home Sales increase to 610,000 Annual Rate in May // Calculated Risk
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2017/06/new-home-sales-increase-to-610000.html

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 610 thousand.

The previous three months combined were revised up.

"Sales of new single-family houses in May 2017 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 2.9 percent above the revised April rate of 593,000 and is 8.9 percent above the May 2016 estimate of 560,000."
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

Even with the increase in sales over the last several years, new home sales are still somewhat low historically.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply was unchanged in May at 5.3 months.

The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009.

This is in the normal range (less than 6 months supply is normal).

"The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of May was 268,000. This represents a supply of 5.3 months at the current sales rate."

On inventory, according to the Census Bureau:

"A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted."

Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.

The third graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.

The inventory of completed homes for sale is still low, and the combined total of completed and under construction is also low.

The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In May 2017 (red column), 58 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 53 thousand homes were sold in May.

The all time high for May was 120 thousand in 2005, and the all time low for May was 26 thousand in 2010.

This was above expectations of 590,000 sales SAAR, and the previous months were revised up.   A solid report.  I'll have more later today.
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U.S. Demographics: The Millennials Take Over

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U.S. Demographics: The Millennials Take Over // Calculated Risk
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2017/06/us-demographics-millennials-take-over.html

From the Census Bureau The Nation's Older Population Is Still Growing, Census Bureau Reports

New detailed estimates show the nation's median age — the age where half of the population is younger and the other half older — rose from 35.3 years on April 1, 2000, to 37.9 years on July 1, 2016.

"The baby-boom generation is largely responsible for this trend," said Peter Borsella, a demographer in the Population Division. "Baby boomers began turning 65 in 2011 and will continue to do so for many years to come."

Residents age 65 and over grew from 35.0 million in 2000, to 49.2 million in 2016, accounting for 12.4 percent and 15.2 percent of the total population, respectively.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph uses the data in the July 1, 2016 estimate released today.

Using the Census data, here is a table showing the ten most common ages in 2010 and 2016.

Note the younger baby boom generation dominated in 2010.  By 2016 the millennials have taken over.  The six largest groups, by age, are in their 20s - and eight of the top ten are in their 20s. 

My view is this is positive for both housing and the economy.

Population: Most Common Ages by Year  20102016150252492632024419235472764622748558512891821105255
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