Saturday, February 3, 2018

Stocks Fall to End a Bad Week, and a Boom Begins to Look Shaky

Wages pick up even a trickle, and the billionaires get a tummy ache

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Stocks Fall to End a Bad Week, and a Boom Begins to Look Shaky // NYT > Business
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/02/business/stock-market-interest-rates.html

U.S. stocks have ended their worst week since February 2016, as investors worried about rising interest rates after a long market boom.
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Friday, February 2, 2018

Enlighten Radio Podcasts:The Moose Turd Cafe -- The Reckless Republican Train Kills Another

John Case has sent you a link to a blog:



Blog: Enlighten Radio Podcasts
Post: The Moose Turd Cafe -- The Reckless Republican Train Kills Another
Link: http://podcasts.enlightenradio.org/2018/02/the-moose-turd-cafe-reckless-republican.html

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Privatization Won’t Fix Puerto Rico’s Broken Power Utility [feedly]

Privatization Won't Fix Puerto Rico's Broken Power Utility
http://cepr.net/publications/op-eds-columns/privatization-won-t-fix-puerto-rico-s-broken-power-utility

Privatization Won't Fix Puerto Rico's Broken Power Utility

Lara Merling 
NACLA, February 1, 2018

See article on original site

Puerto Rico recently announced they will privatize its power utility. Past experience shows that fixing the broken electrical system won't be so simple.

Hurricane Maria wreaked havoc in Puerto Rico, severely damaging infrastructure, knocking out power across nearly the entire island, and limiting access to basic necessities. Almost six months after the storm, there is little indication that the island is on a path to recovery. Restoring power has been particularly slow, with about 30 percent of customers still left in the dark.  The extensive damage caused by the storm—along with the slowpace of restoring electricity, and scandals surrounding the process—have highlighted the struggles and dysfunction of Puerto Rico's Electric Power Authority (PREPA). In the aftermath of this tragedy, a narrative that fits the pattern of what Naomi Klein refers to as the "shock doctrine" hardened: government mismanagement was to blame for the state of the state-owned utility, and the only solution was privatization.

The push to privatize the PREPA is not new; governments have advocated it for decades. Earlier this month, the electrical workers' union argued that the agency was intentionally set up for failure, precisely so that it could be privatized. Just a few months prior to the hurricane, four of the seven members of the island's undemocratic Financial Oversight and Management Board (FOMB)— created by the US Congress in 2016 to control Puerto Rico's finances and  tackle its long-term fiscal issues—authored an editorial that called for PREPA's privatization. Prior to the storm, these calls failed to gain sufficient traction.

After the storm, as scandals and infighting between agencies snarled efforts to restore power, residents' frustration grew—and backers of privatization seized the opportunity to push their agenda. When the governor announced his plan to privatize PREPA, promising that this would bring lower rates and better service, he met little resistance.

The fiscal plan the governor recently submitted to the Financial Oversight and Management Board, as mandated by the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management, and Economic Stability Act (PROMESA), does not question whether privatizing PREPA is necessary. Rather, it presents it as the only viable option. The plan claims that by privatizing the embattled utility, it will "transform" it into an efficient, reliable, and cost-effective energy provider. The proposed privatization process consists of a mix between selling assets, and offering concessions to private companies to run operations over the following 18 months.

Claims that privatization will create a quick fix to Puerto Rico's economic and electrical woes are based on optimistic assumptions not backed by evidence. In fact, Puerto Rico's own past experience is proof that privatization is no panacea for defective public utilities. Puerto Rico's Aqueduct and Sewer Authority (PRASA) has twice privatized the management of water services, as detailed in a report by Puerto Rico's Comptroller's Office. Both attempts had disastrous results.

In the 1990s, as Puerto Rico's water services struggled with quality and operational issues and PRASA's finances deteriorated, then-governor Pedro Rosselló (current governor Ricardo Rosselló's father) declared a state of emergency that cleared the way to seek a private water operator. The senior Rosselló then created a commission to negotiate a contract and oversee the privatization process. In 1995, in circumstances somewhat similar to those surrounding PREPA today, PRASA took its first step toward privatization when it entered into its first concession contract with a subsidiary of the French multinational Veolia.

After Veolia took over PRASA's responsibilities, its problems multiplied. Service quality deteriorated and prices for consumers increased, as did the agency's operational deficit. To make matters worse, Veolia was not complying with environmental regulations. The Environmental Protection Agency found that raw sewage was discharged into water sources, prompting fines and sanctions. PRASA was ill-equipped to oversee and enforce its contract with Veolia. For years, it complied with Veolia's requests for increased payments, despite the questionable quality of the company's services and its numerous violations. Puerto Rico's contract with Veolia ended in 2001 and was not renewed.

Despite the worsening infrastructure, environmental violations, and a large operational deficit that Veolia left behind, rather than retake public control over PRASA, Puerto Rican authorities took another route. They blamed the failed venture with Veolia on the specifics of that contract, not the inherent flaws in trying to fix a system in disrepair via privatization. Problems could simply be fixed through a better-negotiated deal, they said. Thus, the search for a different utility operator started, and the government sought to negotiate a contract that would finally address PRASA's issues. Officials bragged about the "complex negotiations" they led in order to select a contractor that would "bring operations to world-class standards."

In 2002, PRASA entered into a 10-year, $4 billion contract with Ondeo, a subsidiary of French multinational Suez. At the time, it was the largest contract to ever be awarded to a private water company. Ondeo assumed full responsibility for maintenance and repairs of existing assets, while also promising investments to improve infrastructure and assure compliance with environmental standards. This contract was praised at the time for also including clauses to assure compliance with its stated goals, and for bringing huge expected savings to the government.

In practice, things between PRASA and Ondeo worked out differently. Less than two years later, after numerous disputes and disagreements with Ondeo, PRASA paid the company a settlement to rescind the contract. Ondeo had repeatedly requested more money than allowed by the initial agreement with PRASA, and had also failed to update the system's infrastructure.

After the contract with Ondeo was terminated on terms unfavorable to PRASA, the agency retook control over the management of water services. This meant that a decade and hundreds of millions of dollars later, PRASA was in even worse shape than during the crisis that prompted privatization efforts. Both its infrastructure and its finances deteriorated further during this period.

In these cases, the contracts awarded by PRASA were lucrative for the private companies, but not for Puerto Rico's government or its consumers. The companies cashed in, but not only failed to make the new investments and improvements they initially promised, but also failed to manage basic aspects of the water system, such as properly maintaining existing infrastructure.

Arguments in favor of privatization generally emphasize the perceived increased efficiency in the private sector's ability to manage services due to profit incentives. But in the case of running a utility that is a monopoly, this dynamic does not necessarily translate into better service or savings for consumers. Rather, these case studies from Veolia and Ondeo demonstrate that a company can reduce services while raising prices. Puerto Rico's case is not unique, but rather part of a larger global pattern of utility privatizations that have failed to deliver on their promises.  

Somehow, this disastrous experience seems to have been quickly forgotten by the ardent proponents of privatizing PREPA. The governor has offered reassurance that the privatization process would take place under the close oversight of the agency in charge of regulating the utility, the Puerto Rico Energy Commission (PREC). Yet, the official plan for PREPA recently released by the government criticizes PREC, and recommends that a "reasonable regulatory process," not PREC, be created for the future private owners. Handing over a public utility to the private sector while simultaneously calling for less regulation is concerning at best.

The common narrative blames PREPA's operational struggles on mismanagement and corruption, and suggests that these problems can be addressed by simply privatizing the company. However, this view omits the overall context of Puerto Rico's economic decline and shrinking population. In response to a shrinking tax base, Puerto Rico's public sector borrowed massively to cover its expenses. Puerto Rico's public sector accumulated about $72 billion in debt, out of which $9 billion are bonds issued by PREPA. As the island's fiscal balance worsened in the last few years, efforts to reduceexpenses meant that the island skimped on basic maintenance of its infrastructure. When the storm hit, Puerto Rico was already particularly vulnerable. 

There is no doubt that PREPA is in dire need of reform, yet privatizing the utility is not guaranteed to actually solve any of its problems. Particularly given its poor infrastructure and massive debt burden, PREPA's privatization might require concessions that would be unfavorable in the long term. As Puerto Rico's past experiences have shown, savings promised by private operators do not always materialize. The priority now should be an overhaul of PREPA that establishes a strong and accountable regulator to oversee the process of rebuilding a more efficient and resilient electric grid to serve the people of Puerto Rico.


Lara Merling is a researcher at the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, DC.



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Trump’s Department of Labor suppresses an inconvenient fact re their tip-retention proposal. [feedly]

Trump's Department of Labor suppresses an inconvenient fact re their tip-retention proposal.
http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/department-of-labor-suppresses-an-inconvenient-fact/

[These are the comments I made on a press call just now about the revelations from this article by Ben Penn. He tells of how the Labor Dept. is denying the public access to its estimates regarding the costs to tipped workers of the Trump admin's proposed rule to let employers take the tips of minimum wage workers. Heidi Shierholz was also on the call–I recently interviewed her on this issue.]

I've developed an awfully high outrage bar over the past year, but this Dept. of Labor suppression of evidence incident clears it by a mile, for at least 3 reasons.

First, consider what this rule change goes after: The tips of minimum wage workers. I know of none–not one—bit of evidence that the fact the waitpersons get tips is an economic problem in America. To the contrary, tips are one way low-wage workers in tipped industries, many of whom these days are family breadwinners, meet their family budgets while holding minimum-wage jobs.

So, let's be clear. The Trump Labor Dept is doing the bidding of the Nat'l Rest Assoc, not low-wage workers. And trust me, we've already got a whole administration and Congressional majority that's tilted against working people. We don't need the DoL, an agency that is supposed to represent workers' needs, to pile on.

Second, while this rule is wholly unnecessary—tip-pooling arrangements are, of course, common—it would have been perfectly easy to write it in such a way as to prohibit employers from pocketing the tips. But the pen of the DoL was guided by the hand of the restaurant lobby, such that if this rule takes effect, employers will be able to legally pocket workers tips.

Finally, let's also be clear about what happened here. The DoL's analytic staff did what it always does in these situations—based on its best knowledge of the industry and the affected workers, it estimated the transfer costs of the rule. Then, as we understand it, political appointees didn't like the answer so they instructed the analysts to knock it down. They still didn't like the answer—and I should point out here that it is still the case that no one outside the DoL knows that answer—and so they buried it.

We are thus left with are two disturbing realities of politics in the Trump administration: a behind the scenes attack on economically vulnerable workers, and a willingness to dispose of inconvenient facts. History is replete with governments driven by these sorts of motivations, but I assure you, they are not called democracies.



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Thursday, February 1, 2018

Setting the Record Straight on Trump’s Black Unemployment Boast [feedly]

Setting the Record Straight on Trump's Black Unemployment Boast
http://prospect.org/article/setting-record-straight-on-trumps-black-unemployment-boast

(AP Photo/Atlanta Journal & Constitution, Bob Andres)

People wait in line during a job fair sponsored by the Congressional Black Caucus on August 18, 2011, in Atlanta.

One of Tuesday's State of the Union applause lines came when President Trump said, "Something I'm very proud of: African American unemployment stands at the lowest rate ever recorded." The same claim had been made days before, after rapper and business mogul Jay-Z expressed some cautionary comments about black prosperity on CNN's The Van Jones Show. The remarks prompted Trump to scold Jay-Z with a tweet claiming that his year-old administration was responsible for black unemployment being at a historic low.

On the eve of the State of the Union address, Erin Aubry Kaplan spoke with economist Steven Pitts about the president's claim. Pitts is the associate chair of the University of California, Berkeley's Center for Labor Research and Education; his field of focus is issues of job quality and African American workers.

Capital & Main is an award-winning publication that reports from California on economic, political and social issues. The American Prospect is co-publishing this piece.

Capital & Main: Can the Trump administration take any credit for the new low figures in black unemployment?

Steven Pitts: No. The downward trajectory of the black unemployment rate has many factors, but basically it's a function of the economic expansion of the last six or seven years—that's what we're seeing. It's not because of a policy enacted by Trump or even by Obama—that would be giving a single person too much credit. If there had been a sharp break in the trajectory—if it fell to 1 percent, say, in a short period of time—we could maybe say it was something someone did.

Did anything in Obama's eight years in office aid black employment specifically, or indirectly?

When Obama took office, all hell was breaking loose. A combination of his stimulus package—even though it was too little—actions taken by the Federal Reserve, and other factors helped to start expanding the economy after it bottomed out. We've had a steady upward trend since. The black unemployment rate has been falling since roughly June of 2011.

Lower unemployment for black folks is certainly good news, but there's a troubling story underneath the numbers. Do you see the story changing substantially anytime soon?

You're talking about job quality—what kinds of jobs people have and what kind of quality of life they help provide. So the unemployment rate is the lowest it's been since 1972. But basically, since the mid-1970s, we've had flat wage growth, and growth has been very, very slow for all folks. Of the top ten fastest growing occupations, seven or eight fall below the median wage in [California]. We see an expansion of jobs in the service sector—janitors, those sorts of things. Black people are also historically employed in the public sector, which is why the fate of the public sector is so important. We need to do two things: Maintain current levels of employment and fend off growing attacks on public-sector unions. One thing that made jobs good for black people was unionization.

We tend to see the black labor problem as another black/white disparity, another example of inequality. A lot of times our basic metric of black well-being is how big is [its] disparity with whites. But that's processing data wrong. If you ask a black person who's struggling how they're doing, they'll say OK, but they're not thinking about inequality or how they compare to white folks. Basic well-being is asking the questions, How are people living? Do they have good wages, good jobs? It's not complicated, but we don't tend to look at it this way. Not that inequality shouldn't be noted—it should. But that's not all we should look at.

What about the black middle class? We hear a lot about poverty and unemployment, but how are the technically better-off people faring?

The middle class is facing a lot of problems. Blacks were disproportionately hit by the subprime home-loan crisis, so if you're trying to buy a house in California, it's tough. They come out of college with huge debts, maybe have to take out a second mortgage. Their status is a function of three things: the trajectory of the economy, the government policies that impact that trajectory, and the state of community organizing—people power. Overall, things don't look good right now.

In his conversation with Van Jones, Jay-Z talked about the limits of black capitalism—he said that money doesn't make you "happy," meaning that a few black millionaires like himself can't solve deep problems of racial inequality, which includes employment. Do you agree?

Black capitalism is not part of the solution. Even if every black millionaire is willing, they can't help every black person in the world. The scale is insufficient to the problem. When we talk about black entrepreneurs, we tend to ignore other dimensions around the economy. We're never going to have a black Walmart, it's never going to happen. To the extent that small firms get beat down by Walmart, black firms get beat down, too. We aren't in a separate society. By the way, you have only one Walmart, not a lot of "white" Walmarts running around. We could talk about more black suppliers to Walmart, but that's determined by Walmart, and then you'd have to talk about their labor practices.

Rather than celebrate the low unemployment rate, should the president and other national leaders officially declare black employment a national crisis?

It is a national crisis. A president should represent all the people and respond to the crises of those people. But that's should. Reality is different.



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Urban Institute: Homeownership and the American Dream [feedly]

Homeownership and the American Dream
https://www.urban.org/research/publication/homeownership-and-american-dream
We take a detailed look at US homeownership from three different perspectives: 1) an international perspective, comparing US homeownership rates with those of other nations; 2) a demographic perspective, examining the correlation between changes in the US homeownership rate between 1985 and 2015 and factors like age, race/ethnicity, education, family status, and income; 3) and, a financial benefits perspective, which compares the internal rate of return to homeownership to other investments. Our overall conclusion: homeownership is a valuable institution. While two past policies may have put too much faith in the benefits of homeownership, the pendulum seems to have swung too far the other way, and many now may have too little faith in homeownership as part of the American Dream.
VISIT WEBSITE

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Trump Call to Limit Civil Service Protection Riles Democrats [feedly]

Trump Call to Limit Civil Service Protection Riles Democrats
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-31/trump-s-call-to-curtail-civil-service-protection-riles-democrats

Democrats and union leaders expressed alarm after President Donald Trump asked Congress in his State of the Union speech to make it easier for him to fire federal workers, a proposal that would undermine longstanding protections for U.S. civil servants.

J. David Cox, president of the American Federation of Government Employees, said Trump's call for more power over the federal workforce was "concerning" because it could allow Trump and his Cabinet to fire workers who have different political views.

"Obviously if you're running Trump Enterprises, in the private sector, you get to hire and fire anybody you want to," he said. "But we're running the United States of America that is governed by the Constitution."

Concerns about the vulnerability of federal employees to political pressure were highlighted this week after FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe announced he would step down following repeated public criticism by Trump.

The proposal was among several in the speech that undermined Trump's attempt to make a bipartisan appeal to the American public. As with his demand to curtail immigrants' ability to sponsor relatives for entry into the U.S., the stance targets a constituency important to Democratic lawmakers.

"I was particularly disturbed that the President chose to demagogue hard-working federal employees, who are already being asked to do more with less with every passing year in service to their country,'' Democratic Senator Mark Warner of Virginia said Tuesday in a statement responding to Trump's speech. Many of Warner's constituents in the capital's suburbs are federal employees.

Trump cast a curtailment of civil service protections as a long overdue measure to make federal workers more responsive.

"All Americans deserve accountability and respect -- and that is what we are giving them," Trump said in his State of the Union speech. "So tonight, I call on the Congress to empower every Cabinet Secretary with the authority to reward good workers -- and to remove Federal employees who undermine the public trust or fail the American people."

Trump has long sought to exert more power over the federal workforce despite laws and regulations that protect civil servants from being swiftly dismissed from their jobs. Trump has left hundreds of federal positions vacant, and has said he wants to scale back the size of the government workforce.

During the speech, Trump referred to the VA Accountability Act, a bill he signed last year that makes it easier for officials to fire workers at the Department of Veterans Affairs. Trump boasted that more than 1,500 employees have been dismissed from the VA since then.

In April, Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney sent out a memo describing a plan for "reforming the federal government and reducing the federal civilian workforce."

"Agencies should determine whether their current policies and practices are barriers to hiring and retaining the workforce necessary to execute their missions as well appropriately managing and, if necessary, removing poor performers," Mulvaney wrote in the memo.

Several federal agencies have started internal reviews to consider restructuring or downsizing.

At the State Department, Secretary Rex Tillerson has said his restructuring effort is a top priority. Several career diplomats have opted to retire and many key posts have been left unfilled a year into Trump's tenure.

Trump proposed cutting the budget for the Environmental Protection Agency by 30 percent last year, including cutting hundreds of jobs.

There are several laws that protect federal workers from being easily dismissed. Career civil servants can't be fired without cause or for politically-motivated reasons. Of more than 2 million federal workers, only 3,489 were dismissed for performance issues in 2013, according to a 2015 report by the Government Accountability Office.

Prior to the Pendleton Civil Service Reform Act of 1883 and subsequent laws that expanded the civil service system, federal government jobs were often doled out by the political party controlling the White House to reward supporters and their friends and relatives. The patronage system had been widely criticized for incompetence, corruption and bribery in the federal workforce and the reform was instituted after a disappointed office-seeker assassinated President James Garfield in 1881.

Representative Todd Rokita, a Republican from Indiana, proposed legislation last year that would make all new federal employees "at-will" workers eligible for removal without the right to appeal. The bill has not yet been approved by Congress.



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